SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 3/2/12

[W]

The movie that's going to be on the outside looking in is John Carter. The only reason I have it is because with Chronicle, Act of Valor, The Vow, and/or Project X I had a ton of cap room left... and even if it doesn't do normal Disney numbers, which it won't, it'll still rack up T5 and possibly PTA because of the tiny amount of movies in March. I'm not sure about 21 Jump Street, but even if it opens bad it'll have more T5 and PTA than most movies.

The tiny amount of movies should mean a higher box office per picture as well. So I don't see March slowing down. It'll have 2 or 3 $100 M films out of only 9.

[Buscemi]

RS tracking has The Lorax in the 50's and Project X at low double digits. The MTC tracking should come in a few days.

I can't see 21 Jump Street doing well. It's an in-name-only adaptation (looks more like The Other Guys meets Superbad) of an 1980's TV show with two overexposed actors. Also, doing an unfaithful adaptation of a Stephen J. Cannell show just a year after his death seems to be in poor taste.

[W]

I don't think 21 Jump Street will do well, but I'm not sure it'll completely bomb either. That's what I meant.

And is there a certain amount of time someone has to be gone before you can remake one of their projects? HSX released the IPO two years before his death, so if permission was needed it was assuredly given to the guy before his death.

[Buscemi]

I just feel it's too soon, that's all.

The A-Team was a respectful adaptation of a Cannell work. You think that 21 Jump Street would be more in the vein of that film instead of a retread of a million other buddy cop movies.

[numbersix]

Well, no doubt the Lorax will win this weekend, and go on to stay in the Top 5 for a while. Obvious pick. As for Project X, it seems found footage can exist without being straight-forward horror. Plus advertising spots seem to have risen. I'll say a modest 15m with a 40m cume.

As for PTA, Being Flynn is the only one with a chance of beating Lorax, while I'd avoid the others, especially Tim and Eric (look what happened to Aqua Teen Hunger Force)

1. The Lorax - $40 million
2. Project X - $15 million
3. Act of Valor - $12 million
4. Journey 2 - $8 million
5. Tyler Perry’s Good Deeds - $7 million

[Chienfantome]

You know Shryke, if you had asked be about The Assault, I would have told you more about it
It' actually a true story action/political film. It deals with the true hijacking of a plan in the 90's by terrorists who asked for the liberation of comrades. Fearing that they would crash the plane on Paris, the french government sent the French SWAT to stop them. THe plane was stationned at the Marseille airport for fuel when the SWAT attacked, I remember it was live on TV when I was a kid.

[Buscemi]

This week's Grand Screen movie (returning to something I mentioned last week): a screen splitting of The Lorax (three shows) and Act of Valor (one show). As I said last week, the bookers on this screen (the Ozark/Nixa 12) are incredibly good at predicting the big openers.

Project X will be having midnight shows at one theatre (the downtown house near the colleges) here but will only be booked in one screen. This is a theatre that tends to book two prints of most Warner Bros. product, so this isn't a good sign.

[silversurfer19]

Its opening against The Lorax though, so it was never going to get the premium screens

[Buscemi]

But to pick Act of Valor to screen-split with The Lorax instead of Project X in your premium house? That's not a good sign for Project X (along with only getting one print in a college-heavy section of town).

I'll see if the same is done at the other first-run houses here on Project X (another theatre is doing a midnight show).

[W]

X will do just fine...

[Buscemi]

MTC has $45 million for The Lorax and $15 million for Project X. The Lorax is on par with Rango's tracking while Project X is tracking below Chronicle.

[transformers2]

Project X should do well, the auidence is there and the early reception has been great.As should The Lorax (though I do think you guys are overselling it a bit). Act of Valor is definitely going to hold well and Good Deeds will probably drop like a rock.

1.The Lorax $36 Mil
2.Project X $21 Mil
3.Act of Valor $15 Mil
4.Journey 2 The Mysterious Island $9 Mil
5.Good Deeds $7 Mil

[silversurfer19]

Yeah, I think this talk of possibly $180m for The Lorax is very optimistic. I think much more in line with most other animations which are not Dreamworks or Pixar - $130m should be very possible. Anything over that is a stretch. Especially with the movies following it this month.

[Chienfantome]

Who else thinks The Artist will come ontop thanks to its Oscar wins ? 60 million this weekend maybe ?
(just kidding)

[silversurfer19]

I'd say you're pushing it at $60m. It is a b/w silent foreign movie after all. Take off the price of a ticket, as Geez won't be seeing it. So maybe 59,999,990?

May be of interest to some in the game, but Bully has been classified R by MPAA due to strong language (I know...). Anyone think this could seriously damage it's chances of success?