SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 3/2/12

[Shrykespeare]

Hats off to hyped-up navy SEAL movie Act of Valor, for cashing in on the huge advertising campaign that Relativity Media gave it, and running away with the box office crown this past weekend, bringing in nearly $25 million in earnings. Tyler Perry’s latest drama Good Deeds had a respectable opening in second place with $16 million. On the opposite side of the coin, new debuts Wanderlust and Gone had a hard time finding any audience at all, finishing well out of the Top 5. Kudos also go to limited-release film The Forgiveness of Blood, which took first in the PTA race this weekend, and also to The Vow, which became the first film of 2012 to reach the $100 million plateau, just inches ahead of Safe House, which will likely reach that milestone in the next few days.

This weekend marks the beginning of the third round of the Super Leagues, so if you haven’t already, search your e-mail inboxes for the passwords, and do yourself a favor and get in quickly… not just because it’ll make me feel good, but because there is a major player for the upcoming season coming out in the very first week. It is the first major animated film of the year, and it is entitled Dr. Seuss’ The Lorax (Universal).

The children’s book that this film was based on was published back in 1971. Though not necessarily as popular or well-known as Seuss’ other works like The Cat in the Hat, Horton Hears a Who! or How the Grinch Stole Christmas, The Lorax is still a story worthy for adaptation for a feature film. It will be debuting this Friday in approximately 3,600 locations, which is the largest debut of any film so far this year.

The story is set in the closed-off, totally plasticine city of Thneedville, whose inhabitants apparently have no problem with the completely artificial surroundings… that is, until a idealistic young boy named Ted (Zac Efron), in an attempt to win over a girl named Audrey (Taylor Swift) - whose greatest desire is to see a real, living tree – decides to venture outside the walls of the city to find one. There, he meets the reclusive Once-ler (Ed Helms), who directs him to a grumpy yet charming creature called the Lorax (Danny DeVito), who is the guardian of the land, and together, they set to reintroduce organic-ness back into the plastic world of Thneedville… until it all goes pear-shaped, of course. Betty White and Rob Riggle also lend their voice talents.

Unlike February and April, March is rather sparsely populated with wide-release films. Over the next five weeks, there will be only nine films hitting a large number of theaters, and of those, only five have a realistic shot at reaching the $60 million plateau. If January proved anything, it’s that when the schedule is not that crowded, the few films that are debuting can only benefit.

The Lorax is priced at $25 in the March Ultimate leagues and $26 in Box Office. Yes, it’s a full quarter of your budget, but for that price, I think you will earn fourteen Top 5 points, six PTA, and a very reasonable Rating in the 7.0-7.5 range. Dollar-wise, I predict an OW of $51 million, and since there are practically no fun-for-all-ages films coming in the next few months, I expect terrific legs for The Lorax, meaning that it could earn upwards of $180 million before it exits theaters. I would certainly grab this one with both hands.




The only other wide-release film this weekend is Project X (Warner Bros.), and no, it’s not a remake of the Matthew Broderick/Helen Hunt 1987 film. Rather, it is a teenage party movie a la Superbad, brought to theaters from producer Todd Phillips (who helmed the smash hit The Hangover) and first-time director Nima Nourizadeh. It will be put into roughly 3,000 theaters this Friday.

The story centers on three high-school seniors named Thomas (Thomas Mann), Costa (Oliver Cooper) and J.B. (Jonathan Daniel Brown). In an effort to finally make a name for themselves, as they exit their high-school years, they decide to throw the mother of all parties. However, like most films of this nature, things start escalating very quickly as news of the shindig spreads. And, well, you can guess the rest.

In August of 2007, Superbad crushed with a $33 million opening on its way to an impressive $121 million. However, that film had the benefit of a summer release, slightly more well-known actors, and, of course, McLovin. That being said, I’m sure Project X will do just fine for its price tag, which is $9 (in both March leagues). Every crop of teenagers needs its party movies (mine were Risky Business and Bachelor Party, both classics). I foresee an OW of $19 million, on its way to six Top 5 points, two or three PTA and $46 million. If you have room to squeeze this into your slates, you may want to do so.




Of the four films coming out this Friday in limited release, the most noteworthy is definitely Being Flynn (Focus Features). It is a comedy/drama from director Paul Weitz, whose last outing was the horrible trilogy-capping Little Fockers in 2010. However, he is also the same guy who helmed the decent About a Boy in 2002, an Being Flynn looks like it just might be a return to form.

Robert De Niro stars as the titular Jonathan Flynn, an ex-con and self-professed poet and writing prodigy. Taking up residence in a Boston homeless shelter, he encounters his son Nick (Paul Dano), who, in an effort to reestablish a relationship with him, realizes that he not only shares his father’s love for the written word but some other questionable personality traits as well. Julianne Moore, Olivia Thirlby and Lili Taylor co-star.

Being Flynn will be debuting in only four theaters this Friday, and I think that if any film could possibly top The Lorax, it’s this one. Whether it can hang on for additional points next week is less certain, but for $3, this is absolutely worth its price tag. With lots of expensive properties this season, both in March and in May, you’ll want some cheap picks to fill out your roster. Being Flynn should definitely be one of them.




And now, a little bit about this weekend’s other films:

Tim and Eric’s Billion Dollar Movie (Magnolia) ($3) – This vehicle for comedy writers/directors/actors Tim Heidecker and Eric Wareheim (Tim and Eric’s Awesome Show, Good Job) will be bowing in 22 theaters this Friday. It is basically a comedy romp, and will include cameo appearances from well-known comedic actors like Will Ferrell, Zach Galifianakis, John C. Reilly and Will Forte, as well as veterans Robert Loggia, William Atherton, Ray Wise and Jeff Goldblum. The premise: Tim and Eric are given $1 billion to make a movie by Tommy Schlaaang (Loggia), but basically just piss the money away. On the run from Schlaang, the duo skip town and attempt to get the money back in a variety of wacky, bizarre ways.

With a release platform of 22 theaters, PTA points may be hard to come by. It may be able to swing one or two, but certainly no more than that. I really wouldn’t take it, though, because then you’d be saddled with the film’s less-than-impressive 5.8 Rating (which won’t change much after release). Pass on this one… unless you just love “shrim”.




The Assault (Screen Media) ($2) – This is a French action thriller (original title: L’Assault) from director Julien Leclercq. It stars Vincent Elbaz, Gregori Derangere and Melanie Bernier (and if you want to know more about those actors, PM Chien). Sadly, there’s not much I can tell you about the plot, since none of my usual sources include even a basic description of it. From the trailer, though, it looks very much like the Chuck Norris actioner Delta Force, in which an elite military unit is called in when a plane taking off from Algeria is hijacked by terrorists.

The Assault is priced dirt-cheap, at only $2. I don’t know how many theaters it will be showing in, and thus I am unable to accurately predict how many PTA it may get; it may get as many as three, or it could be the one film this weekend that DOESN’T earn any points. You’re better off taking a cheapie with fewer question marks.




Boy (Paladin) ($2) – This 2010 film, which was an official selection at Sundance and has won numerous prizes at various film festivals, also has the distinction of being the highest-grossing New Zealand film in history. Directed by Taika Waititi (Eagle vs. Shark) and produced by well-known character actor Cliff Curtis (who is also a native of the NZ) are the driving forces behind this film, which is a coming-of-age story set in 1984.

The main character is a boy named, well, Boy (James Rolleston), who lives on a farm with his grandmother, his little brother, and his goat. One day, the father he never knew (Waititi) shows up, and unlike the heroic version he always pictured, dear old dad is in reality merely an incompetent hoodlum who has only returned home to find a bag of money that he buried years before. The trailer is very endearing, bringing to mind the delightful 2007 English film Son of Rambow.

Given its pedigree, Boy could easily scare up some PTA points. For only $2, I certainly couldn’t fault you for taking a stab at it.




My predictions for the weekend of February 24-26, 2012:

1. The Lorax - $51 million
2. Project X - $19 million
3. Act of Valor - $14 million
4. Journey 2: The Mysterious Island - $10 million
5. Tyler Perry’s Good Deeds - $8 million

Well, that will do it for me for another week. Next week, six more movies take center stage as we transition from winter to spring: John Carter, a big-budget sci-fi actioner starring Taylor Kitsch; Silent House, a shot-in-real-time horror flick starring Elizabeth Olsen; A Thousand Words, a comedy featuring Eddie Murphy; as well as limited-release films Salmon Fishing in the Yemen, Friends With Kids (just added), and Footnote.

Celebrities with milestone birthdays this week:

Adam Baldwin (Full Metal Jacket, Chuck) (50 on 2/27)
Jon Bon Jovi (rock singer) (50 on 3/2)
Lou Reed (singer) (70 on 3/2)
Jessica Biel (7th Heaven, The Illusionist, next up in Total Recall) (30 on 3/3)

Later!

[Shrykespeare]

Early Stock Report:

Ult FY R1 (59)
Lorax - 45
Project - 9
Flynn - 4
Billion - 1
Boy - 1
Assault - 0

Ult HY R1 (54)
Lorax - 40
Project - 5
Flynn - 4
Billion - 0
Boy - 1
Assault - 0

BO FY R1 (63)
Lorax - 43
Project - 7
Flynn - 2
Billion - 3
Boy - 0
Assault - 0

BO HY R1 (58)
Lorax - 38
Project - 12
Flynn - 1
Billion - 1
Boy - 0
Assault - 0

Bankrupts Ult (Q1)
Lorax - 1
Project - 2
Flynn - 2
Billion - 1
Boy - 1
Assault - 0

Bankrupts BO(Q1)
Lorax - 1
Project - 4
Flynn - 1
Billion - 2
Boy - 0
Assault - 0

[Buscemi]

I'll say The Lorax opens to $45 million and Project X does $9 million (the film looks like a complete ripoff of Superbad and none of the attempts at copying that movie did anything, plus the latest trailer gives the entire movie away). Act of Valor should take in $15 million in the second week (the Cinemascore was a strong A). As for the other second week holdovers, Good Deeds will probably do $8 million, Wanderlust $3 million and Gone $2 million. Journey 2 will probably shed 50% to $7 million due to The Lorax.

[W]

Project X = $22-25 M weekend

[Buscemi]

I've also hardly seen any marketing for Project X. This is not going to break out like The Hangover or Superbad did (which were pushed much harder and had trailers that didn't give the entire plot away).

As the PTA front, Being Flynn easily. It's got the cast and premise that appeals to the big cities. And Tim and Eric is a dud. Their show isn't very popular outside of hipsters and to many Adult Swim fans, they are considered the culprit to the block's decline and lowered emphasis on animation. I'll be surprised if it hits $2,000 PTA.

[W]

So, you've been temporarily blinded since just before the Super Bowl?

[Buscemi]

All I've seen on Project X is one TV spot, a poster that tells you nothing about the film (a common occurrence on teen films cashing in other, more successful films) and two trailers (one that tells you nothing about the film and one that gives everything away). Clones of more popular teen films never do well and Project X is no exception. Not even Todd Phillips (whom I'm kind of surprised still has a career outside of The Hangover, seeing that most of his films are poorly written and feature cardboard characters) can save it.

[Geezer]

It took me a little while, but every since the absolute FLOOD of advertising I've seen for Project X, I'm sold. The fact that it looks a lot like Superbad is a GOOD thing for the film's chances. It may not break out as well, but I think W is right on the money with a 22-25 million opening. There hasn't been a comedy aimed at 18-25 year old males in a while, and they will eat this up. Loving its chances.

[Buscemi]

But don't you think that it will be hurt by the fact that nearly every ultra-wide released movie this year has been aimed at that crowd? Contraband, Underworld: Awakening, The Grey, Chronicle, Safe House, Ghost Rider 2 (the only flop in the lot but even that overperformed) and Act of Valor were all aimed at the 18-25 crowd (with a few trickling over to other crowds, especially Act of Valor and Safe House).

[silversurfer19]

And yet every one of those films listed have done pretty well. I don't see a big reason why that run should change this weekend. There is obviously a market for that demographic at the moment.

[Geezer]

Exactly. Its the key demographic, because its the one that shows up with the most consistency. And none of those films have been comedies, which means it could be even bigger.

[Buscemi]

But the average person sees less than ten movies a year. Maybe a lot of these people have already met that quota. Also, spring is coming up and the box office slows down during this time. Don't forget that March is when Spring Break starts up.

Which makes you think: why would you open a teen comedy during Spring Break? People would rather live the real thing instead of watching a fictional simulation of it.

[silversurfer19]

Wait, the box office slows down during March? I hope someone told The Lorax, John Carter, The Hunger Games and Titans - only the biggest movies so far this year...

And if they have alrweady met their quota then I guess those movies, along with a few of TDKR, Spidey, Avengers, Prometheus, Brave, The Hobbit and Twilight are doomed.

And wasn't Superbad released during the summer - y'know when kids are on their summer holidays and could be living out the real thing rather than watch a fictional simulation of it...

[Buscemi]

I guess they are trying to avert that this year (since everyone is trying to start summer early now). Last year, most of the March movies opened low or outright flopped (even Rango opened below expectations). Limitless and The Lincoln Lawyer were more legs films but opened average. The same with the year before (only Alice in Wonderland performed above expectations). And 2009 (only Monsters vs. Aliens was a bonafide hit).

And Superbad opened around the time school was beginning. It really wasn't summer for a lot of kids but more like a "foreshadowing the school year" thing.

As for the quota, maybe I didn't explain all of it. The guy movies will probably start to quiet down until The Avengers due to the oversaturation of them at the moment. Family films have been light so that should be good for The Lorax and John Carter (and The Three Stooges). Chick flicks have been kind of second-class at the moment (Rachel McAdams is a easier draw than also-rans Katherine Heigl and Reese Witherspoon) but The Hunger Games and Titanic should improve that.

So for the next two months, trust the girl-aimed and kids movies but don't trust the guy movies. It's all fair game again on May 4th.

[silversurfer19]

I'm not sure I'm conviced. I agree there is plenty of room for female and family adiences since other than The Vow and Journey 2 nothing has really broken out, and maybe those movies will start to perform now, and at the expense of guy movies. But maybe not. Granted, I don't think Project X is the strongest, or even close to one of the strongest movies to come out this year or even in March, and it's going to face a hell of a lot of competition from The Lorax, but maybe, just maybe, audiences are getting a little less tight with their cash and starting to spend it on movies again. January and February have well exceeded expectations for this time of year than typically, and I don't see any reason to doubt why March can't continue that.

Remember, beyond those already listed, there were also success in March for guy movies in recent years such as 10,000 BC, Watchmen, I Love You Man, Knowing, Blades Of Glory, 300, Inside Man and V For Vendetta. There is definitely precedent, so maybe it's not so far fetched, especially with it's high tracking and how ads appear to be coming across.

It's all guessing games though, and I more than anyone should know never to trust my own judgement on these things going by my history of the games...