SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 2/24/12

[Buscemi]

The only movie here getting multiple screens this weekend is Act of Valor. Another theatre here is putting it on their premium priced "Grand Screen" auditorium (like Cinemark XD but a different company).

The latter has been an incredibly good indicator of what will open well. Movies they've shown on it since that theatre opened.

11/4: Tower Heist
11/11: Immortals
11/18: Breaking Dawn
11/23: The Muppets/Breaking Dawn
12/9: New Year's Eve
12/16: Mission Impossible: Ghost Protocol
1/6: The Devil Inside
1/13: Contraband
1/20: Underworld: Awakening
1/27: The Grey
2/3: Chronicle
2/10: Star Wars Episode 1
2/17: Ghost Rider 2
2/24: Act of Valor

[Shrykespeare]

Theater counts:

Act of Valor - 3,039
Gone - 2,186
Good Deeds - 2,132
Wanderlust - 2,002
Forgiveness of Blood - 3

Of the four wide-release films, three of them were not available for review in my local paper. Not a good sign. (Act of valor got 3/5 stars.)


Estimates for next week:

The Lorax - 3,600
Project X - 3,000
Tim and Eric's Billion Dollar Movie - 22
Being Flynn - 4
Boy - 1
The Assault - N/A

[Shrykespeare]

Stock report:

Ult FY R1 (59 players):
Valor - 8
Deeds - 4
Wanderlust - 3
Blood - 3
Gone - 1

Ult HY R1 (54 players):
Valor - 11
Blood - 4
Wanderlust - 4
Deeds - 2
Gone - 2

BO FY R1 (63 players):
Valor - 15
Deeds - 5
Wanderlust - 4
Blood - 2
Gone - 1

BO HY R1 (58 players):
Valor - 15
Deeds - 6
Wanderlust - 3
Gone - 1
Blood - 1


Bankrupts Ult league (Feb-Apr):
Gone - 15
Wanderlust - 11
Deeds - 7
Blood - 1
Valor - 0

Bankrupts BO league (Feb-Apr):
Wanderlust - 17
Gone - 15
Deeds - 5

[numbersix]

Wow, Act of Valor is exceeding expectations, opening to $25m+. I'm glad I didn't stick with my opinion and that I paid attention to the tracking figures (and Geez!). Also glad I dropped Wanderlust from all my slates.

The box office has really been exploding this year. The kind of films that are surprising could easily have bombed or underperformed (Contraband? The Grey? Safe House?) a year or two ago but could this be a sign of increasing consumer confidence?

[W]

And Act of Valor is worth it in every single league by first weekend numbers alone...

Deadline has Journey 2 as #3 for the weekend followed by Safe House and The Vow. Tyler Perry's #2.

And I don't think these would have underperformed if released in the last couple of years. The Grey had an excellent trailer, Safe House looks almost like a Denzel flick you'd have seen ten years ago when he was making good/great movies, though if Contraband was released this month I think the numbers wouldn't have been great. I saw all three and was pleased (in varying degrees) with all three. Compare it to last January and those films were downright awful, save Green Hornet which was decent for the month it was released, but not for the genre.

There were VERY few movies worth watching last year at this time. Just Go With It almost seemed like a gem in comparison to the rest of the crap available.

2010 was almost as bad in the first two months, though not quite because it had both Shutter Island and The Book of Eli, which were both better than anything this January or February and they both made decent. Seriously, the weekend before Valentine's Day better counter-programming against a $100 M romdram: Safe House or From Paris with Love? Or: The Grey or Edge of Darkness? How about: The Roomate/Sanctum or Chronicle/Woman in Black? I'd pick this year all three times.

In my mind, quality is up, or at least there are a lot more movies I wanted to see (and it has nothing to do with the economy on my part) and I'm actually glad I watched.

[Buscemi]

It's funny how I said some months back that had Act of Valor stayed at President's Day weekend then it would have had a strong chance of opening in first. And it's on track to outpace all three of the films that actually did open that weekend.

Once again, never underestimate the appeal of patriotic movies to American audiences.

[undeadmonkey]

wow, this year has been strange game wise. can't believe Valor is doing so well, though i'm glad i went against my instincts and listened to tracking and others advice.

[Shrykespeare]

Friday Estimates (BOM):

Act of Valor, $9.0M
Good Deeds, $5.5M
The Vow, $3.2M
Journey 2, $3.2M
Safe House, $3.1M
This Means War, $2.7M
Ghost Rider 2, $2.3M
Wanderlust, $2.2M
Gone, $1.7M
Chronicle, $1.1M
Arrietty, $1.0M


Weekend Projections (BO):

Act of Valor, $24.5M
Good Deeds, $15.0M
Journey 2, $13.3M
Safe House, $11.0M
The Vow, $10.0M
This Means War, $8.7M
Ghost Rider 2, $8.0M
Wanderlust, $6.3M
Gone, $4.7M
Arrietty, $4.5M

So Act of Valor turns out to be an awesome pick, Journey 2 is holding extremely well, and Wanderlust and Gone are perfect Bankrupts picks.

In other news, The Vow WILL become 2012's first blockbuster. Safe House will reach that milestone mid-week.

[Chienfantome]

I can't believe Act of Valor made so much. Glad I picked it almost everywhere, but it looks so bad.

[Buscemi]

As I said, don't underestimate the power of patriotic movies.

At the theatre I went to today, Act of Valor had the two biggest auditoriums and people were buying tickets for evening shows.

[Shrykespeare]

Weekend Estimates:


Top 10:
5 points - Act of Valor, $24.7M
4 points - Good Deeds, $16.0M
3 points - Journey 2: TMI, $13.5M (great legs!)
2 points - Safe House, $11.4M
1 point - The Vow, $10.0M
Ghost Rider: SOV, $8.8M
This Means War, $8.5M
Wanderlust, $6.6M
Gone, $5.0M
TSWo Arrietty, $4.5M


PTA (Jan/Feb):
5 points - The Forgiveness of Blood
4 points - Act of Valor
3 points - Good Deeds
2 points - Journey 2: TMI
1 point - Undefeated

In the December leagues, in its ninth week of release (and in its final week of eligibility), A Separation grabs 2 more PTA points. That gives it 26 total PTA points inthe Dec-Feb leagues. I don't know if that's an all-time record or not, but holy shit... this was the gift that just kept on giving.

Good Deeds has a current Rating of 2.9. Tyler Perry simply cannot catch a break.



In other news, the May movies have been added to the Master List (along with a cornucopia of additional movies added for March and April, some of which I availed myself of for the leagues, the rest will be represented by a "101" price). I will be sending out passwords for Round Three later today.