SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 2/17/12

[Buscemi]

Another thing that will help Arrietty is the four-day weekend. With Journey 2 likely to hold very well, this could get the overflow from that movie.

I will give predicting the weekend a shot (three-day, but not the four-day).

1. Journey 2 $18 million
2. The Vow $17 million
3. Safe House $16 million
4. This Means War $15 million (the sneak preview gross will go towards Chronicle's gross)
5. Ghost Rider 2 $13 million
6. Phantom Menace 3-D $10 million
7. The Secret World of Arrietty $6 million
8. Chronicle $5 million

[Chienfantome]

Well given the numers you give, and its price in the game, I still don't get why you recommend Arrietty. And you seem very optimistic on the film's chances at the box-office, although I hope you're right because it's about time US audiences fall in love with Japanese animation, even if this isn't the best film to do so.

[Buscemi]

The per-theatre average would be around $4,000, which would be a decent average in my opinion for a small wide release. I'm only high on it because it's simply a better pick than the other two openers.

The Monday numbers should add another $1-2 million to the gross.

[Shonenbat]

Arrietty is an awful choice, i think anyone can see that. You should pick it only if you desperately need a boost in the imdb chart before the end of the month.
Ghost rider will do much better than 13 million. The film is supposedly atrocious, but the trailer looks very cool. I say above 30 as well. This means war is a bit of a wild card. It will slightly do better then the vow's second weekend i think.

[Buscemi]

I had said "take it if you missed Chronicle or The Woman in Black".

On Ghost Rider: hardly anyone liked the first film (I myself found it a guilty pleasure but most people found it a joke). And the last time Nicolas Cage did 3-D was the disastrous Drive Angry. Also, the trailer was not well-received at all (the pissing fire shot killed any momentum with audiences). 2007 Nicolas Cage and 2012 Nicolas Cage are two different horses. 2007 Nicolas Cage was the reliable action hero who could still do a decent box office performer (he also did National Treasure 2 that year). 2012 Nicolas Cage is the guy who do anything for a paycheck.

[numbersix]

Not sure about this weekend, but surely after two surprisingly huge weekends this one is bound to fail, with two weaker projects and a third that simply won't appeal to the masses?

Ghost Rider 2? Don't think it will do as well, and there's certainly better competition from last weekend.
This Means War: I know a few of us were big on it, and it certainly looked like it could be a breakout action/comedy type film, but really the onyl thing going for it is Witherspoon and the probability that it'll be the best date option compromise (i.e. for boys not willing to take their lady to The Vow even though it would guarantee some action) for loved-up teens.
Arietty? Ghibli has a limited audience and while Ponyo did well, I don't expect a similar PTA for a wider release.

1. The Vow - $21 million
2. Ghost Rider: Spirit of Vengeance - $20 million
3. Safe House - $18 million
4. This Means War - $16 million
5. Journey 2: The Mysterious Island - $15 million

9. Arietty - $4 million

[transformers2]

Ghost Rider should do pretty well. It's not going to be a smash hit, but it's a 3-D superhero film and that is almost a lock for at least a marginal success. This Means and Arritery have bomb written all over them. This Means War will definitely be overshadowed by The Vow and Arritery's style of Japanesse animation never translates to success in America.

(3-Day)
1.Ghost Rider: Spirit Of Vengeance $28 Mil
2.Safe House $23 Mil
3.The Vow $21 Mil
4.Journey 2: The Mysterious Island $17 Mil
5.This Means War $15 Mil

[Brockster]

Wasn't this means war supposed to be sneaked yesterday? I don't see it showing up on boxofficemojo.....and damn, the Vow killed it yesterday.

[W]

It said This Means War is figured into Chronicle's numbers.

[silversurfer19]

Surely that must be one of the biggest Valentine's Day numbers ever. I mean to have a 247% boost is huge.

[Brockster]

It said This Means War is figured into Chronicle's numbers.

huh?

Surely that must be one of the biggest Valentine's Day numbers ever. I mean to have a 247% boost is huge.

yep, this is a V-day record.

[Buscemi]

The sneak preview numbers on This Means War were counted towards Chronicle's gross (since the screenings replaced evening shows of Chronicle). This is usually done on sneak previews.

[silversurfer19]

It said This Means War is figured into Chronicle's numbers.

huh?

I think because it was a sneak preview the gross went to another Fox picture - hence Chronicle. Dpesn't look good for it though on a day prime for this kind of movie to only take in $1.3m including Chronicle's numbers.. Especially in comparison to The Vow and Safe House.

[Buscemi]

That's a PTA of only $500 on This Means War. They shouldn't have sneaked it that wide (if I had been Fox, I would have gone with 500-600 theatres).

[Brockster]

holy shit...yeah that's terrible numbers.