SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 2/10/12

[Geezer]

I think 18 million is about right for Phantom Menace, which isn't bad by the way. I'm still holding confidence in Act of Valor, but a lot will depend on theater count. I think it can touch 50 if it gets 2800+

[numbersix]

Just curious, Geez, but why do you tihnk Act of Valor will do so well?

[englishozzy]

1. Safe House $28 million
2. The Vow $24 million
3. Star Wars Episode I $20 million
4. Journey 2: The Mysterious Island $17 million
5. The Woman in Black $9 million

[Geezer]

Because I know people who have been excited for it for months. Anyone and their mother who is attached to the US military WILL want to see it, because they feel like it is "their movie." Plus it will bring in the action movie fans like myself. Especially since there hasn't been a good war movie since... hell, I'd have to go back to Inglourious Basterds. I don't think its a smash hit, but there is enough of an audience to make it a success.

[Shrykespeare]

#2 is easy to explain: Qui-Gon and Obi-Wan needed the money to fix the ship to get Anakin to Yoda.

I don't mean explain why he made the bet, I mean the actual bet itself. It was the most convoluted bet in the history of gambling.

[Buscemi]

Act of Valor is one of those films only Americans will understand. International audiences aren't going to understand the appeal of a film starring active duty Navy Seals but for small towns and places outside the coasts, it's a movie that would appeal to them.

Also, movie theatres are some of the most effective places for military recruitment (Top Gun proved this). Doing an entire movie starring the military kills two birds with one stone.

[Chienfantome]

I gotta say the trailer convinced me Act of Valor will never ever be released in cinemas in France. And I won't regret it.

[Brockster]

[BanksIsDaFuture]

Am I really seeing comparisons between Act of Valor and Inglourious Basterds/Top Gun?

[silversurfer19]

And Limitless...

[BanksIsDaFuture]

As for The Phantom Menace, a non-Star Wars fan is obviously not going to see it. And at least 50% (more like 75% I think) of Star Wars fans hate both George Lucas and/or The Phantom Menace, so I see this performing more like The Clone Wars than The Lion King re-release.

[Geezer]

I'm not comparing Valor to Basterds, just saying that Basterds was probably the last good war based movie that I can remember.

[transformers2]

Act of Valor has been getting a shitload of ad's and the concept is definitley interesting enough to attract an auidence. I can see it being pretty sucessful and pulling in at least 50-60 mil.

Onto this weekends films... I think The Vow is going to take the weekend. It's the obligatory tearjerker,romantic film of the Valentine's Day season and that alone should lead it to victory with a huge opening. Safe House should have a strong opening as well. Episode 1, being the worst recieved Star Wars film, should have a decent, but not amazing opening. Journey 2 looks like a bomb, but it is really the only film that is strictly geared strictly towards families this weekend.

1.The Vow $38 Mil
2.Safe House $25 Mil
3.Star Wars Episode 1 $18 Mil
4.Journey 2: The Mysterious Island $14 Mil
5.Chronicle $12 Mil

[Buscemi]

On Phantom Menace: the version being released is the longer version that was put on DVD in 2001 instead of the 1999 theatrical version (this version adds two minutes of deleted scenes). Of course, there was probably some additional tinkering between then.

[Shonenbat]

The Vow clearly looks like the frontrunner to me. Dear John opened to 30 million the week before Valentine's Day last year, I think the Vow can and should do better than that. Safe House will come in second with a very good number and the other two are destined to underperform.