SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 2/10/12

[Shrykespeare]

Sorry this is so late, but I just got back from Florida late last night.


And the hits just keep on a-coming. In a time period that typically sees studios dumping their less hit-worthy fare into theaters just to fill time between winter and summer seasons, Chronicle and The Woman in Black became the seventh and eighth films so far year to have an opening weekend of at least $17 million. This figure is even more amazing when you consider that only three films managed that feat in the first five weeks of 2011.

Can the trend continue? With eleven wide-release films coming out in the next three weeks (three more than will be debuting in all of March, if the schedule holds), one would certainly think so, especially given that, on paper anyway, the films bowing on the weekends prior to and immediately following Valentine’s Day have even more potential than the films that have been released thus far, as they would seem to incorporate bigger budgets, bigger stars and wider release platforms. For the first time this year, the major studios are pulling out the big guns. Case in point: Warner Bros., Universal and Fox all have movies debuting this Friday.

The first film I'll talk about today is the latest in an ever-increasing line of movies being upgraded to 3D and re-released to the general public. However, unlike animated classics like The Lion King or Beauty and the Beast (or the upcoming Finding Nemo), or even bona fide critical darlings like Titanic, I can’t help but wonder why, of all things, Star Wars Episode I: The Phantom Menace (Fox) just HAD to be the next to get the 3D treatment.

Since I am assuming that all of you reading this have seen the film (and if you haven’t, you’re better off), I’ll dispense with the plot synopsis and fill the gap with personal opinion, about which I have PLENTY in regards to this film. When it debuted in May 1999, everyone was excited as hell, given that it was the first film to bear the Star Wars name in nearly a decade and a half. Everyone just assumed it would be awesome. And even after I saw it (as well as the two sequels that followed), I tried desperately to convince myself that they were awesome. Maybe not as awesome as the original trilogy, but still worthy of my patronage and fandom. Thankfully, in the years since Revenge of the Sith completed the prequel triology, the blinders have come off.

I could spend 5,000 words describing just how awful these films were, but gratefully, I don’t have to… I urge all of you to go to http://www.redlettermedia.com and watch the reviews of all three prequels, which are as insightful, thorough and side-splittingly funny as anything I’ve ever seen. The reviewer, “Mr. Plinkett”, pulls no punches in tearing the film a new orifice, something it sorely deserves. Here’s a direct quote: “The Phantom Menace is the biggest case of blue-balls in cinematic history… nothing will ever be as widely anticipated or a bigger disappointment”. Amen.

The first of the three prequels, which have collectively aired approximately 2.3 billion times on cable TV in the last decade, is back in theaters so that director George Lucas can make one last grab for American moviegoers’ money. Will they give it to him? Sadly, they probably will. But one of the biggest problems with The Phantom Menace was that action scenes, which were all way overdone with CGI effects, involved Lucas shoving as much crap onto the screen as possible, in an attempt to completely overload your senses. Adding a 3D element to that… well, it makes me nauseous just thinking about it.

We’ve had eleven years to come to our senses, but I will predict that The Phantom Menace, which will return in about 2,600 theaters, will pull in $16 million in its first three days, thanks in part to millions of filmgoers who just don’t know any better. I want to believe that all three of this weekend’s other films will do better, because… well, just because. So in all, I predict two Top 5 points, maybe two PTA and $43 million overall. The 6.4 User Rating is pretty much set in stone with nearly a quarter million votes. For $15 in the Ultimate leagues ($16 in Box Office), I cannot recommend this film for your slates.




Denzel Washington has spent the better part of the last five years getting his paychecks courtesy of the Scott Brothers, Ridley and Tony, having done no fewer than four films for them since 2006. Now, Safe House (Universal) is not #5 on that list, but from the looks of things, it might as well be. It is actually helmed by Swedish director Daniel Espinosa, who is making his U.S. debut with this film. (It’s worth noting that his last outing, the Swedish film Easy Money, had more admissions than any film in 2010 in that country.)

The plot: a young CIA operative named Matt Weston (Ryan Reynolds) has the tedious duty to guard an underground holding facility in Johannesburg, South Africa, a post that usually sees him staring at four walls all the livelong day. One fateful day, however, a rogue agent named Tobin Frost (Washington) is captured and entrusted to Weston’s care. An already tense situation erupts into chaos when the safe house is attacked, and the two men must form an uneasy alliance in order to survive. Brendan Gleeson, Vera Farmiga, Sam Shepard, Ruben Blades and Robert Patrick co-star.

The trailer does a good job selling the film as a tense, adrenaline-filled actioner, and Universal has done a very good job advertising it. This type of thriller is right in Washington’s wheelhouse, and hopefully Reynolds can play his role cooler (and less of an arrogant wise-ass) than in his last two films, Green Lantern and The Change-Up, both of which underperformed last year. I’m not sure if Safe House will have quite enough juice to become 2012’s first blockbuster, but I think it could come close.

I predict that Safe House will win the weekend with $26 million (in just over 3,000 theaters). For $15 (in both February leagues), I envision eight or nine Top 5 points, five PTA, a User Rating around 7.0 and $81 million. When you compare Safe House’s potential results with every other film between now and the end of the month, I think it is easily the most solid (in all four categories) of the bunch. I would indeed grab it.




The film getting the widest debut this weekend is Journey 2: The Mysterious Island (Warner Bros.). It is a sequel of sorts to the 2008 family adventure film Journey to the Center of the Earth, which did fairly well ($101 million) in a July release. Brendan Fraser is not returning as the protagonist, but young actor Josh Hutcherson will be reprising his role as Sean Anderson.

Stepping into the “manly lead” spot is Dwayne Johnson, Sean’s stepfather, who, in an attempt to bond with Sean, accompanies him on an adventure to find his grandfather Alexander (Michael Caine), who disappeared whilst searching for the Mysterious Island, a wonderous place that has been the object of Alexander’s focus for decades. Hiring a ramshackle helicopter flown by its equally ramshackle pilot Gabato (Luis Guzman) and his winsome daughter Kailani (Vanessa Hudgens), the group are dropped into a location where amazing creatures – and dangers – are around every turn. Giant bugs, dinosaurs, you name it, the Mysterious Island has it.

Scheduled to premiere in over 3,400 locations, Journey 2 would appear to be the first live-action fun-for-the-whole family adventure film of the year. Yes, it looks corny, but no less so than any of the Spy Kids movies. Plus, this one has both of The Rock’s pecs, and since those pecs will not be anywhere near a tutu or a pair of angel’s wings, that’s a good sign that financial success may be forthcoming.

It will be a close race for second between Phantom Menace, The Vow (which I’ll talk about in a bit) and Journey 2, a race that any one of them could win. I will peg Journey 2 for four Top 5 points, $49 million and possibly a PTA point or two. Its Rating (currently at 6.4 with over 1,700 votes) is good but not terrific. Family films tend to have good legs, so Journey 2 might have good legs for a few weeks. For $14 in Ultimate ($16 in Box Office), however, I don’t think it’s quite worth it.




The trailer for The Vow (Sony/Screen Gems) makes mention of the fact that the film features two stars of previous adaptations of Nicholas Sparks’ novels: Channing Tatum was the lead actor in Dear John, while Rachel McAdams was featured opposite Ryan Gosling in The Notebook. This is an especially curious factoid to put in a trailer, given that The Vow is NOT a product of Sparks’ creative juices at all. Just saying.

Tatum and McAdams play Leo and Paige, a young couple who have been happily married for five years. Tragically, a car accident puts Paige into a coma, and when she wakes up, she has no memories of Leo or their entire relationship. Hoping to make history repeat itself, Leo proceeds to woo Paige all over again, but with less successful results this time around. Determined to rekindle their love despite all this, Leo remains steadfast. Also in the supporting cast are Sam Neill, Scott Speedman and Jessica Lange.

The Vow is written and directed by Golden Globe winner Michael Sucsy (Grey Gardens), and will be bowing in 2,800 theaters. BoxOffice.com, for some reason, is predicted a humongous OW for it, to the tune of $35 million on its way to $105 million. Such optimism… and I can’t quite share it. I haven’t seen that much advertising for it, and it just doesn’t seem like the kind of movie that guys will flock to unless there’s something in it for them (nudge, nudge). Dear John did make $80 million in 2010, and The Notebook made $81 in 2007. Those numbers seem pretty sound for The Vow.

Cheaply priced at $11 in both February leagues, The Vow could net you anywhere between seven and nine Top 5 points, two and four PTA, and a Rating somewhere between 5.1 and 6.3. This might very well be worth it, unlike the overblown romantic action-comedy This Means War, which opens next week.




My predictions for the weekend of February 10-12, 2012:

1. Safe House - $26 million
2. The Vow - $18 million
3. Journey 2: The Mysterious Island - $17 million
4. Star Wars Episode I: The Phantom Menace 3D - $16 million
5. Chronicle - $11 million

Well, that will do it for me for another week. Next week, four films hit theaters in the wake of the Valentine’s Day holiday: Ghost Rider: Spirit of Vengeance, Part 2 in the saga of Marvel’s spectral superhero; This Means War, an espionage love story starring Chris Pine, Tom Hardy and Reese Witherspoon; The Secret World of Arrietty, the latest animated feature from Hayao Miyazaki and Studio Ghibli; and Undefeated, a documentary about the Manassass (Tenn.) Tigers, a team of losers that turned into a championship team.

Celebrities with milestone (div. by 10) birthdays this week:

Axl Rose (Guns N’ Roses frontman) (50 on 2/6)
Patrick Macnee (the original John Steed from The Avengers) (90 on 2/6)
Eddie Izzard (Valkyrie, Cars 2) (50 on 2/7)
Garth Brooks (country singer) (50 on 2/7)
Robert Klein (Two Weeks Notice, Reign Over Me) (70 on 2/8)
John Williams (Star Wars theme composer) (80 on 2/8)
Taylor Lautner (Twilight) (20 on 2/11)
Sheryl Crow (singer) (50 on 2/11)

Later!

[Buscemi]

I'll give the weekend to The Vow, followed by Safe House, Journey 2 and Phantom Menace. As for the fifth spot, I'll go with The Woman in Black as found footage movies never hold well.

Meanwhile, I don't really get the Phantom Menace hate. Yes, it's the weakest of the six films but is it really a bad movie? There are far worse sci-fi movies (for example, 1999 also gave us terrible films like Wing Commander and Deep Blue Sea). Also, Jake Lloyd was not as awful as fans made him out to be. He was a kid and there have been worse child actors than Lloyd (example: the girl from Contagion). The really sad thing was that Lloyd never got the chance to redeem himself and he's been more or less forced to live his life in bitter regret (in an interview a few years back, Lloyd said that he has basically disowned the film due to the bullying he received over it).

Star Wars fans need to grow up and accept the film as a missed opportunity. It's also not the end of the world as Episodes II and III turned out to be much better.

[BanksIsDaFuture]

I would say The Vow could hit $100M, but I think This Means War will get some Valentine's Day left-overs next weekend.

But either way, I think all four movies will do well, because the next two weeks are dead. A Tyler Perry movie without Madea, some Lionsgate crap with Amanda Seyfried, Call of Duty: The Movie (but without the alien hook like Battle: LA had), another Ghost Rider nobody wants, and an Japanese anime (which is automatic box office failure).

1. Safe House - $27M
2. The Vow - $22M
3. The Phantom Menace - $18M
4. Journey 2 - $16M
5. Chronicle - $9M

[Buscemi]

Act of Valor's Super Bowl ads were rather well-received (and Relativity has done an excellent job promoting it). This could do similar numbers to last year's Limitless (which also had a large-scale ad campaign with a few Super Bowl ads).

Also early screenings have been very strong (the first screening in Los Angeles reportedly had everyone in the theatre crying at the end), which could lead to great word-of-mouth.

[silversurfer19]

I'm pretty certain Act Of Valor doesn't have a star of Bradley Cooper's standing to bring in a crowd, never mind De Niro. I don't really think the comparison is valid. Not saying it will perform badly, just not to those kind of numbers.

And as a Star Wars fan, I can say without doubt The Phantom Menace was an unholy letdown. I mean, of course it was going to underwhelm, how could it not, but to transform the coolest movie in the world into something which worked solely as a kids toy franchise with awkward special effects and horrible characters, Lucas would have been hard pushed to do any worse. Granted I loved Darth Maul, a real kick ass Sith, but to counterbalance that with Lloyd and the absolutely vile Jar Jar Binks (and to paraphrase Spaced - "Jar Jar Binks made the ewoks look like f#cking Shaft"), it deserves all the bile thrown at it.

I can only fathom that as you missed the first run of Star Wars and are probably nostalgic towards the newer franchise that you grew up on, you don't have such anger towards the movie, as otherwise I couldn't comprehend your support of it.

Anyway, anyone noticed a trend running in the BO this year so far. Firstly, every movie released this year which has topped the box office has been primarily male driven, and secondly has made over $20m on its OW (indeed both these trends goes back until Dec 9th Weekend where New Year's Eve was victorious). Maybe that gives some added support to Safe House again winning the weekend?

[W]

Episode One was the only one with Qui-Gon! You've at least got to mention Liam Neeson as a plus for the movie.

[Geezer]

I don't think Episode 1 was THAT bad. I certainly liked it better than Episode 2, and its stuck with me more than Episode 3, probably due to my playing of the Playstation game for hours upon hours. Great game. It doesn't sniff the original trilogy, but I think it might be pretty cool to catch on the big screen again in 3D.

[Buscemi]

I'm pretty certain Act Of Valor doesn't have a star of Bradley Cooper's standing to bring in a crowd, never mind De Niro. I don't really think the comparison is valid. Not saying it will perform badly, just not to those kind of numbers.

I wouldn't exactly call Bradley Cooper a star (besides Limitless, the only other film where he was truly the lead was the barely-released The Midnight Meat Train). And De Niro's been in decline for a while. I compared the two due both films getting large-scale marketing campaigns from the same studio. Though this film has been pushed for a bit longer.

Another film that's a good comparison to Act of Valor is Red Tails. Another film with a patriotism angle (though not the main premise), it opened to $20 million and like many military-themed films didn't need to depend on reviews.

[silversurfer19]

Ask anyone who has a slight interest in movies if they know who Bradley Cooper is, and I'm pretty certain that either The Hangover or The A-Team, both where he plays the central character (no matter what you may think) will come up countless times.

The argument is ridiculous, he's an A List actor while not a single actor from Act of Valor could be picked out in a crowd even by most of us movie geeks on here!

Anyway, I agree with your Red Tails comparison, it may crossover to those viewers, although I would fathom the Lucas name and the black market certainly aided that movie. I think Act Of Valor will do solid numbers, but nothing spectacular.

[Buscemi]

The Hangover and The A-Team were ensemble cast films and Cooper was likely the least memorable character of the leads (the most memorable character in The Hangover being Alan while The A-Team had B.A. and Murdock).

Act of Valor has mostly an unknown cast (kind of expected, since much of the cast consists of non-actors) but it doesn't need a name lead. Selling it on the military aspect and its unique concept is good enough to make people interested. Red Tails didn't have a single A-lister and has surprised. Act of Valor could do the same.

[Shrykespeare]

Liam Neeson was NOT a plus for Phantom Menace. He was just as static and boring as every other character. And I am a Neeson FAN, which is why I'm so glad he had the good sense to die in Episode I.

Boosh, the girl from Contagion? Seriously? A teenage girl acting like a teenage girl? Surely you can do better than that.

Here are, for me, the biggest problems with Phantom Menace:

1. First and foremost, the editing sucked. During the four-pronged attack sequence at the end, we went from dramatic and tense (Qui-Gon and Obi-Wan vs. Darth Maul) to silly and stupid (Gungans vs. Droids), less dramatic and exciting (Amidala storming the throne room), and back to silly and tensionless (Anakin flying the fighter ship) and back again. At no point do you know what you're supposed to feel, as every scene has its own distinct emotional state.

2. Someone please explain that pod-race bet between Qui-Gon and Watto to me in 100 words or less. It can't be done.

3. The notion that Anakin INVENTED C-3PO to "help mom around the house". Puh-leez.

4. Jar Jar Binks. Nuff said.

5. "Our people are dying, your Majesty!" Um, what people? A huge, wondrous city, and we never see any people!

6. The Jedi's ability to run super-fast, like Obi-Wan and Qui-Gon did at the beginning to get away from the droids. This is an ability that was written for convenience, and what do you know, they NEVER use that ability ever again.

7. R2-D2 being singled out for recognition for "saving the ship" and taken to the Queen for a pat on the head. It's a droid, idiots!

8. After the Trade Federation was defeated, why did Anakin wait TEN YEARS to go back for his mother? Oh, right, because then she wouldn't die and he might not become Darth Vader.

9. The droid army. Has there ever been a more useless, stupid, ineffectual, pointless enemy force in any movie EVER?

10. Did you notice that when Amidala returned to Naboo from Coruscant, the Trade Federation blockade was nowhere to be seen?

I could keep going, but you get the point.

[Buscemi]

#2 is easy to explain: Qui-Gon and Obi-Wan needed the money to fix the ship to get Anakin to Yoda.

And #8: he was likely being trained by Obi-Wan. With Anakin not getting the normal Jedi training and Obi-Wan being an inexperienced teacher, Anakin's training was likely more difficult than the average training for a Jedi knight. Also, you can see in Episode II that Anakin still has much to learn.

And the girl from Contagion was one of the annoying and selfish child characters in recent memory. While the world is dying around her, she's constantly complaining about missing prom. The actress playing her portrays the character as a walking stereotype of damsels in distress from every disaster film ever made. Also, the girl cannot fucking act. I was disappointed that she didn't get the virus but her stepbrother did.

More child acting performances worse than Jake Lloyd:

- Dakota Fanning in War of the Worlds
- the son from We Bought A Zoo
- nearly any Spencer Breslin performance
- the kids from Are We There Yet? and Are We Done Yet?
- the kid from Troll 2
- Lacey Chabert from Lost in Space (who more or less has played the same character ever since)

[numbersix]

Re the Contagion girl, once again Boosch you conflate performance with character. Say what you want about the chracter but her performance is spot on in achieving what she is supposed to do. Jake Lloyd delivered an utterly unconvincing performance and in many ways the film hinged on his role. It's probably more Lucas's fault than anyone else's.

And thinking that Act of Valour will do well is bonkers. Red Tails did well because of its unique subject material and it being able to hit undervalued demographics. Act of Valour is an utterly generic looking film with zero star appeal, and the only mildly new aspect is that it uses real soldiers. But so what? I won't call it a bomb because no one reall expects much out of it, but I'd be surprised to see it hit $30m

As for this week, I'm gonna say The Vow will win

Found footage films do drop hard in the 2nd week, but mostly because they're horrors and all horrors tend to do this. So Woman in Black will also take a huge hit. As Chronicle is a sci-fi with good word of mouth I tihnk it'll take the #5 spot.

1. The Vow - $28 million
2. Safe House - $25 million
3. Journey 2: The Mysterious Island - $20 million
4. Star Wars Episode I: The Phantom Menace 3D - $18 million
5. Chronicle - $11 million

[Chienfantome]

I think there's a bit of a Phantom Menace underestimate here. The question is, will people want to catch an opportunity to see a Star Wars film again on the big screen, be it Phantom Menace ? Yes they will. Most of my friends want to go see it (it opens today in Paris), even my girlfriend who has never seen a Star Wars film in her life want to seize this opportunity to finally see Star Wars on the big screen.
I'll see tomorrow morning the debut numbers of Star Wars in France, it might give an idea of the potential.

[numbersix]

I think the franchise is suffering from fatigue by an increasing number of fans who are simply sick of George Lucas. It's almost considered wrong to defend the guy. The Clone Wars cartoon was proof that people aren't willing to flock to anything with a lightsabre in it. And while returning to a proper Star Wars film is a lot different, I can't help but feel many fans (who own the DVDs, Blu-Ray box sets etc) won't be as excited.