SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 1/27/12

[Shrykespeare]

Underworld: Awakening and Red Tails continued January’s streak of impressive debuts, bringing in $25 million and $19 respectively to take 1-2 at the box office this past weekend. Meanwhile, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close expanded wide enough to grab fourth place, and new actioner Haywire just beat out Beauty and the Beast for fifth. On the PTA front, A Separation and We Need to Talk About Kevin continue to dominate.

It’s hard to believe, but we are coming up on the end of the first month of the year. Sure went fast, didn’t it? If February can pick up where January left off, it should be a very interesting and competitive year. Before we get to February, however, we have four more films to talk about, all of which will debut this Friday, January 27th.

This weekend is tough to prognosticate. It’s rare that a weekend will present itself where not one of the four major studios (Paramount, Universal, Fox, Warners Bros) has a film coming out, but this weekend just happens to be one of those weekends. And since it looks like all three of this weekend’s wide-release films will get about the same release platform (between 2,500 and 3,000 theaters), any one of them could theoretically bust out on top.

The first film I’ll talk about is One For the Money, an action comedy from Lionsgate. Based on the first of three novels published in the 90’s by author Janet Evanovich, One For the Money stars Katherine Heigl as Stephanie Plum, a bounty hunter that is “a spunky combination of Nancy Drew and Dirty Harry”. (In other words, the opposite of Domino Harvey.) Out of work and desperate for cash, she chases down bail jumpers for her disreputable cousin Vinnie (Patrick Fischler).

Then a high-stakes assignment comes down the pike: Joe Morelli (Jason O’Mara), an ex-cop who is wanted for murder, who also just happens to be the same guy who seduced and dumped Stephanie in high school. In the midst of tracking down Joe, Stephanie has to deal with meddling family, a tendency for witnesses to die when she gets too close, and the realization that the case against her old flame just doesn’t add up. Debbie Reynolds, John Leguizamo and Fisher Stevens co-star.

Despite Katherine Heigl’s poor film choices post-Grey’s Anatomy, this film actually looks quite fun, even though it’s basically a reverse-gender version of The Bounty Hunter, which earned $67 million in a March release two years ago. It is the second major film for director Julie Anne Robinson, whose debut, The Last Song, coincidentally, made about the same amount of money at almost exactly the same time.

One For the Money will run you $14 in both January leagues, and for that much… I just can’t recommend it. Yes, it could very well pull $20 million in its first three days, but I just don’t see it happening. There’s no early word on how good or bad the film is, but I have seen very little advertising for it (not that that means anything), and until Heigl proves otherwise, I just don’t see her as a viable leading actress. I predict a $10 million opening, one Top 5, no PTA and $32 million. Pass.




From Summit Entertainment comes Man on a Ledge, the first non-documentary outing for director Asger Leth (Ghosts of Cite Soleil). It is a dramatic thriller starring Sam Worthington (The Debt) as Nick Cassidy, an escaped felon who feigns a suicide attempt by climbing out onto the ledge of a New York apartment building. Of course, this is a classic case of misdirection – while the eyes of the entire city are on Nick, his brother (Jamie Bell) attempts to carry out a massive heist of his own in order to prove Nick was set up by a ruthless, sneaky businessman (Ed Harris). Nick’s only other ally may come in the form of Lydia Mercer, a detective sent to talk him down, but who he must attempt to convince of his innocence.

Anthony Mackie, Kyra Sedgwick, Edward Burns, Titus Welliver and Genesis Rodriguez (the next major Hispanic hottie, mark my words) co-star. Not a bad cast, to be sure, and the trailer calls attention to the fact that Man on a Ledge was co-produced by Lorenzo di Bonaventura, whose resume also includes such high-powered actioners as Salt, Red, all three Transformers films and both G.I. Joe movies (including the one coming this summer). I like the premise, which seems to take its inspiration from films such as Inside Man (which I liked) and Phone Booth (which I… didn’t). I also like Sam Worthington, who hasn’t QUITE gotten over the hump to the point where he can carry a film on his own, despite the fact that he played the lead character in the must successful movie of all time.

I will predict a $14 million opening for Man on a Ledge, one its way to seven Top 5 points, three PTA, a Rating around 7.2 and $48 million. That is by no means a certainty, and for $12 in Ultimate leagues ($11 in Box Office), I would do some serious research into how well more learned prognosticatory pundits than myself predict this film will do before I put it on my roster.




It was exactly three years ago that Liam Neeson proved that despite his age (he’ll turn 60 this year), he still has a lot of life left in him, punching and shooting his way to over $140 million in the smash hit Taken. Since then, he has continued to be cast in action roles, including The A-Team ($77 million) and last year’s Unknown ($63 million). Suffice it to say, Liam still has considerable drawing power.

Yes, The Grey could probably be classified as an action thriller, though it’s nothing like any he’s done before. Reuniting with director Joe Carnahan (The A-Team) as well as that film’s producers, the talented Scott Brothers (Ridley and Tony). Neeson plays Mr. Ottway, one of a group of men who work as oil-rig roughnecks in Alaska. Tragically, their plane crashes in the wilderness as they are being flown back to civilization… and then their problems REALLY begin.

As if surviving a plane crash was traumatic enough, Ottway must find a way to gather himself and the survivors and get them to safety, while battling injuries, the freezing cold, and a vicious pack of rogue wolves that would just as soon have them for dinner. Dermot Mulroney, James Badge Dale, Frank Grillo and Joe Anderson co-star.

Open Road films (whose last film, Killer Elite, underwhelmed) has done a great job advertising The Grey. It’s been a while since we’ve had a good man-vs.-nature thriller, and if anyone can sell this premise to a wide audience, it’s probably Neeson. For that reason, I will pick The Grey to win the weekend, though not with a huge number. Say, $15 million, on its way to eight Top 5, four PTA, a Rating around 7.6 and $54 million. Cheaply priced at $10 in Ultimate ($11 in Box Office), I would easily recommend this film for your slates more than either One for the Money or Man on a Ledge.




This week’s only limited-release film is Declaration of War, which not only was one of the opening-night entries during last year’s Cannes Film Festival’s Critics Week, it was also France’s submission for Best Foreign Film at this year’s Oscars. (It didn’t make the final shortlist, however.) It follows a young couple named Romeo and Juliette (yeah, I know), who are played by Jérémie Elkaïm and Valérie Donzelli, who not only are the stars of the film but also co-wrote it (and Donzelli directed).

Though the parallels between this film’s plot and Shakespeare are tenuous at best, there is a tragic element: namely, that the couple discover that their newborn son Adam has been stricken with cancer. As their families gather together to support them, Romeo and Juliette confront the ordeal together as a form of warfare (hence the title). From what I’ve read, the film is quite uplifiting, which surprised me. Donzelli uses many techniques, including exceptional acting performances from her cast as well as music (I really like the use of Laurie Anderson in the trailer) to do so.

Declaration of War is opening in six theaters this Friday. It only costs $3 in Ultimate leagues, which would seem to be a damn sight smarter a pick than last week’s overhyped Coriolanus, which only managed three PTA points for $7. With only three films coming next week, this film could hang on for a second week. None of the January movies are PTA giants, so it would not surprise me if Declaration of War ended up being the PTA champ of the month. French movies tend to do quite well in PTA. Not all of them, but many of them.




My predictions for the weekend of January 27-29, 2012:

1. The Grey - $15 million
2. Man on a Ledge - $14 million
3. Underworld: Awakening - $11 million
4. One For the Money - $10 million
5. Red Tails - $9 million

Well, that will do it for me for another week. Next week, we enter the second month of 2012 with three films, all set to debut on February 3rd: The Woman in Black, a gothic horror film starring Daniel Radcliffe; Big Miracle, a romantic drama featuring Drew Barrymore; and Chronicle, a superhero drama starring Michael Kelly and Michael B. Jordan.

Celebrities with milestone (div. by 10) birthdays this week:

Ewen Bremmer (Trainspotting, Snatch) (40 on 1/23)
Adam Lambert (singer) (30 on 1/29)
Nicholas Turturro (NYPD Blue, The Longest Yard) (40 on 1/29)

Later!

[Buscemi]

I'm going to have to give the weekend to One For The Money. Man on a Ledge looks a bit too generic (and Sam Worthington's JCVD mullet is laughable) and The Grey will have bad word-of-mouth once it gets out that it's not a horror or action film (a bit similar to Haywire, which was promoted as an action film instead of a Soderbergh-esque drama and got a D- on Cinemascore).

Meanwhile, One For The Money is based on a popular book series and the Stephanie Plum faithful will flock to it.

[Chienfantome]

I'm surprised you see Man on a ledge opening over One for the Money Shryke. I don't see much perspective for Man on a ledge. Declaration of War, on of the 3 best french films of 2011, will grab the PTA crown this weekend.

[W]

I think Man on a Ledge takes the weekend.

[numbersix]

Man on a Ledge does indeed look generic and Worthington isn't there yet, so I'm saying it'll disappoint. Not sure about the other two, maybe Taken's popularity will have The grey as the winner. One for the Money does have the books, but not all bestselling novels becoming bestselling movies, and there's not a lot of buzz with this one.

1. The Grey - $14 million
2. One For the Money - $13 million
3. Underworld: Awakening - $11 million
4. Man on a Ledge - $10 million
5. Red Tails - $9 million

[transformers2]

I am with Boosh (for once!), I think One For The Money will take the weekend. The books have enough of a fanbase to take the weekend in a field full of uncertanties this weekend. Man on a Ledge and The Grey should have decent openings as well and take secord and third respectively.

1.One For The Money $18 Mil
2.Man on a Ledge $14 Mil
3.The Grey $13 Mil
4.Underworld: Awakening $11 Mil
5.Red Tails $9 Mil

[Geezer]

I'm with Six. The Grey takes the weekend, I have Underworld holding for second and everything else bombs. I haven't seen a single ad for Man on a Ledge or One for the Money, but a ton for The Grey, which looks pretty decent.

[BanksIsDaFuture]

I think it'll be One For The Money this weekend, because The Grey and Man On A Ledge will sort of cancel each other out. It'll be a very spread out weekend.

I wish I'd known what Declaration of War was before I paid $7 for Corilanus!

[Chienfantome]

I'm glad I haven't picked Coriolanus !

[Brockster]

Shut it Chien! lol

[englishozzy]

Tough one to pick this week.

1. The Grey - $14 million
2. Underworld: Awakening - $13 million
3. One for the Money - $13 million
4. Man on a Ledge - $12 million
5. Red Tails - $10 million

[numbersix]

Latest tracking has One for the Money tracking really low, as in high single digits. The Grey is tracking highest (around $13m).

[Buscemi]

The Grey reminds me too much of Killer Elite: an very widely released indie film with a big action star that's mismarketed by the studio as something that it's not (Killer Elite was an espionage film marketed as a Battle Royale-esque serial killer film). The Grey is a drama being marketed as a horror/action film. I expect a similar result.

[Shonenbat]

I Think The grey has the potential to break out (20 million). The trailer looks awesome (there's Liam Neeson knuckle fighting a wolf) and Neeson has action star power these days. His face on the poster should help.
It probably won't hold up very well, cause of the philosophical content. I hear it has a great ending though.

Man on a Ledge looks terribly unattractive to me, and people won't even recognize Katherine Heigl without the blonde hair (for months i was sure she was katie Holmes on the poster). And even if they do, they probably won't care.

[Brockster]

Katherine Heigel is a terrible actress, and she has lost all of her Grey's Anatomy appeal, AND the movie looks terrible...I don't need the turd to be right under my nose to smell a piece of shit...I think it's going to bomb.