SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 1/20/12

[Shrykespeare]

To the surprise of many, Mark Wahlberg was able to out-punch a Disney classic this past weekend, as Contraband sailed to an easy victory, piling up an impressive $24 million. Beauty and the Beast, back in theaters for the first time in many years, could only amass $18 million and a second-place finish. On the PTA front, the victory went to We Need to Talk About Kevin, which returned to theaters a full month after its one-week for-Oscar-consideration stint in December. Also, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close and A Separation both managed to break into double-digit PTA figures as well.

Speaking of Extremely Loud, the Tom Hanks/Sandra Bullock vehicle will be going wide this week, expanding to over 2,500 locations. It’s already proven to be a fantastic pick on the PTA front (14 points!), so now we’ll see if it can be a worthy pick on the Box Office front as well. It will be sharing the spotlight with three other wide-release movies that make their debuts this week, as well as one limited-release film.

First up this week is Underworld: Awakening, an action/horror film from Sony/Screen Gems and Swedish directors Måns Mårlind and Björn Stein. It is the fourth overall film in this series, following Underworld (2003), Underworld: Evolution (2006) and Underworld: Rise of the Lycans (2009), which was actually a prequel. Kate Beckinsale, who only appeared in that segment for a few brief seconds at the end, is back in the spotlight for this fourth segment, which is advertising itself as the final chapter. It is scheduled to debut in just shy of 3,000 theaters this Friday.

Taking place six months after the events of Evolution, vampire maven Selene (Beckinsale) has been captured by humans, who have learned of the centuries-old feud between vampires and Lycans (basically, werewolves), and are now intent on wiping both ancient species out. After being cryogenically imprisoned, Selene manages to escape captivity along with a young girl named Eve (India Eisley), a vampire-werewolf hybrid that may be the key to ending the war. Stephen Rea also co-stars.

Much like the Resident Evil franchise, the numbers for the Underworld films have been consistent if not spectacular. In a January release six years ago, Evolution managed a decent $26 million opening on its way to $62 million in total receipts. Rise of the Lycans only managed $20/$45, but with Beckinsale’s name back on the marquee, as well as this being the purported “last” chapter, I expect that the numbers for Awakening will be more similar to Evolution than Rise. In all, I envision $23 million for its first three days, and will finish its run with about $58 million.

Awakening is interestingly priced at $14 in the Ultimate leagues but only $10 in the Box Office. I would definitely say it is a worthy pick in Box Office, as $50 million is most definitely within its reach. Ultimate is a harder sell, as I think it will only end up with seven Top 5 points, four PTA and a Rating in the mid-6’s. It probably won’t suffer the titanic second-week drop that The Devil Inside did (which was 76%... look for Awakening to drop more in the 55-60% range), and so I would give it a marginal thumbs-up as an Ultimate pick as well.




Up next is Red Tails, a historical drama from Fox that chronicles the formation and exploits of the Tuskegee Airmen, the first-ever African-American fighter pilot squadron to be formed, and how they made their mark during WWII. It would appear to be the same story as the 1995 HBO movie The Tuskegee Airmen, a decent outing starring Laurence Fishburne, Andre Braugher and Cuba Gooding Jr. Ironically, Gooding Jr. is back for Red Tails (albeit in a different role), so the material should be familiar enough for him.

Red Tails marks the feature-film debut for director Anthony Hemingway, who has spent the last five years as a director for many different TV shows, among other duties. If you are not familiar with the story, here it is in a nutshell: in 1944, with the war in Europe taking its toll on the Allied forces, the Pentagon was forced to resort to “unorthodox” methods to try to achieve victory, which included giving African-Americans the chance to become dogfighters for their country. Despite the not-too-subtle racism of the time or the adverse conditions they trained in, the Tuskegee Airmen ended up showing their immense courage and leaving an indelible stamp on history as well. Truly a story worthy of the silver screen, and the cast of actors includes Terrence Howard, Bryan Cranston, Nate Parker, and rap stars Method Man and Ne-Yo.

One would hope that Red Tails’ User Rating will not end up falling into the same pit that engulfs most films featuring heavily African-American casts (last week’s Joyful Noise started off with a miserable 3.2 Rating), but since The Tuskegee Airmen managed a 7.1 (not bad, even for a made-for-cable movie), I remain optimistic about that. About its box office potential, however, I’m not quite as hopeful. Given its release platform (2,500 theaters), its historical setting and the light amount of advertising I’ve seen for it, I will predict an opening of $11 million, which will be good enough for only one Top 5 point, maybe one or two PTA, and $30 million total. For $9 in the Ultimate leagues ($9 in Box Office), I think you’re better off not taking it.




I like just about everything I’ve seen thus far for Haywire, an espionage action/thriller from noteworthy director Stephen Soderbergh (Ocean’s Eleven, Traffic). From the trailers, it looks like an adrenaline-filled, brisk, kick-ass popcorn movie, with a terrific cast and hair-raising fight scenes. The early poop on the film is fantastic (90% fresh at RT), and it looks to be easily the most exciting film of early 2012 by a mile.

Making her major film debut is former model, mixed martial-arts fighter and American Gladiator Gina Carano, who stars as Mallory Kane, a covert operative hired out by her handler to perform various off-the-books duties that the government would prefer to turn a blind eye to. During a mission to Dublin, Ireland, the operation goes awry and Mallory finds out that she has been double-crossed and targeted for elimination. From there, she must use all of her considerable skills to not only make it back home, but to keep her family safe and exact revenge on those that betrayed her. The fantastic supporting cast includes Michael Fassbender, Ewan McGregor, Antonio Banderas, Michael Douglas, Bill Paxton and Channing Tatum.

From everything I’ve heard and seen so far, Haywire would appear to be everything that Salt was not… which makes it all the more sad that there isn’t a more reputable studio than Relativity distributing it. It’s been well-advertised, and between that and the great reception, I’m hoping that Haywire can overcome its limiting 2,000-theater release platform and scratch out an impressive opening weekend.

I may be overreaching, but I am going to go out on a limb and prognosticate a $14 million opening for Haywire, on its way to six Top 5 points, several PTA and a rating well above 7.0 (it’s currently a 7.5 with several hundred votes), along with $41 million overall. Would that still make it worth its price tag of $10 in Ultimate ($13 in Box Office)? Just barely. If I were you, I’d probably exercise caution and stay away from picking Haywire altogether, unless you are feeling REALLY daring.




Debuting in three locations this Friday is Coriolanus, an adaptation of the Shakespearean tragedy of the same name. It just happens to be the directorial debut of actor Ralph Fiennes, who also stars in the title role. Taking place in the modern day, Caius Martius Coriolanus plays a Roman general who, pushed on by his ambitious mother (Vanessa Redgrave), achieves the powerful position of Consul, even though he lacks the connection to the people that such an office entails, choosing instead to govern by fear. After an altercation leads to a riot, Coriolanus is stripped of his rank and banished from Rome, forcing him to ally himself with sworn enemy Tullus Aufidius (Gerard Butler) to take his revenge on his homeland. Brian Cox and Jessica Chastain also co-star.

Because it’s the first month of the year, January on the whole tends to have fewer films released within it than any other month, and January 2012 is no exception. There are only twelve films to be had for game purposes, and of those, only two are limited-release films. Films like Coriolanus are, therefore, well-placed for PTA puroses, much like Phil Ochs: There But For Fortune (12 PTA) and Barney’s Version (16 PTA) were in January of last year. Now, is Coriolanus a shoe-in for double-digits in that category? I’d say there’s a better than 50% chance.

As PTA picks go, Coriolanus is on the expensive side, priced at $7 in the Ultimate leagues, and it’s not hard to see why: it’s gotten great reviews (90% Fresh on 45/52 positive at RT), has a terrific Rating (7.5 with over 1,200 votes) that is unlikely to change much, and could easily repeat as PTA champ for in back to back weeks. I think it’s an extremely worthy pick. (Maybe not so much in Box Office, where it is priced at $4, and as I’m not sure Coriolanus will ever go wide, I probably wouldn’t pick it there.)




My predictions for the weekend of January 20-22, 2012:

1. Underworld: Awakening - $23 million
2. Haywire - $14 million
3. Beauty and the Beast (3D re-release) - $13 million
4. Contraband - $12 million
5. Red Tails - $11 million

Well, that will do it for me for another week. Next week, we finish up January (wow… that month went by fast!) with four more films, all set to debut on January 27: Man on a Ledge, a dramatic thriller starring Sam Worthington; One for the Money, a crime comedy starring Katherine Heigl; The Grey, a survival drama featuring Liam Neeson; and, in limited release, Declaration of War, a French drama.

Celebrities with milestone (div. by 10) birthdays this week:

Betty White (The Golden Girls) (90 on 1/17)
Jim Carrey (next up in Burt Wonderstone in 2013) (50 on 1/17)
Muhammad Ali (boxing legend) (70 on 1/17)
Drea de Matteo (The Sopranos) (40 on 1/19)
Logan Lerman (Percy Jackson) (20 on 1/19)
Paul Stanley (KISS lead singer) (60 on 1/20)
Gabriel Macht (The Spirit, Suits) (40 on 1/22)
Piper Laurie (Carrie, The Hustler) (80 on 1/22)

Later!

[W]

I think you're really underestimating Extremely Loud. It'll place first or second this weekend... Mid-high teens/low twenties. I've heard more than a couple 40-somethings talking about how they want to see it "when it's released." I keep trying to tell them it's already released, but it's on a progressive release platform, but that just makes me sound like a dork.

[Buscemi]

Early word-of-mouth on Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close has been awful. Not Devil Inside bad but it hasn't been pretty so far.

[numbersix]

I'm so not feling this weekend's entries. Red Tails looks awful from the featurette I watched. Haywire just seems too generic and the lead is charmless. And Underworld has a built-in audience so it's going to win regardless. Coriolanus will of course win 5 PTA this week and some more next, so it's certainly the best limited release of Jan.

1. Underworld: Awakening - $22 million
2. Contraband - $12 million
3. Beauty and the Beast (3D re-release) - $11 million
4. Haywire - $10 million
5. Red Tails - $9 million

[numbersix]

I keep trying to tell them it's already released, but it's on a progressive release platform, but that just makes me sound like a dork.

Wise move.

I think it's always worth listening to what people who normaly don't go to the cinema are interested in. My mother was the reason I suspected The Help would be a hit last year (thanks mum!) because it was one of the few films she wanted to see (and loved the book). So I understand your reasoning, W. Indeed, early tracking has it opening in the teens. Pity the figures are from the unreliable RS.

I still think the total lack of buzz, whether it's reviews (52% RT) or awards (no nominations in any major awards), is going to have a huge impact. I see it opening to about $5 or $6 mil and holding decently, but anything above $30m in total seems unlikely to me.

[Brockster]

Coriolanus sounds like an STD to me.

"Dude, what's wrong?"

"I'm fucked man. I hooked up w/ this girl last night after the bar and I think she gave me Coriolanus"

[Shrykespeare]

Ha! That's funny 'cos you said "anus"...

[englishozzy]

1. Underworld: Awakening - $22 million
2. Beauty and the Beast - $13 million
3. Contraband - $12 million
4. Haywire - $10 million
5. Extremely Loud - $9 million

[transformers2]

My predictions for the weekend. I am with Six, I really don't think anything besides Underworld will succeed this weekend. Watch out for the expansion of Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close though, it should be pretty big.

1.Underworld: Awakening $24 Mil
2.Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close $18 Mil
3.Beauty and The Beast $13 Mil
4.Contraband $12 Mil
5.Haywire $10 Mil

[Chienfantome]

The Artist will also expand this weekend, and with the Golden Globes wins, it should move closer to the Top 10, if not entering it altogether...

[W]

1. Underworld $21.5 M
2. Extremely Loud $18.5 M
3. Contraband $12 M
4. Beauty and the Beast $11.5 M
5. Red Tails $9.5 M

[Brockster]

whoa! 18.5M for EL would be awesome for my slates I went in thinking it would pick up some top 5 points, but i'm not so confident anymore....although it did pick up more PTA than I thought it would. It's tracking at 13M w/ MTC right now...while Underworld is tracking 26M

[W]

Even $13 M could give it four T5 points.

[Shrykespeare]

Theater counts:

Underworld Awakening - 3,078
Red Tails - 2,512
Haywire - 2,439
Coriolanus - 9

Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close - 2,630
The Artist - 662

[W]

This is one of those weekends where I know I want to see one of them, but three others are big question marks. I know Haywire is getting decent reviews, but it looks really generic. I like movies based on the time period for Red Tails, but I'm not sure at all. And The Artist is getting really good reviews, but movies like that tend to either be some of the best I've seen or some of my most hated.

Extremely Loud is the one I want to see if you were curious.