SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 1/13/12

[Shrykespeare]

Well, how do you like that?? Despite horrible reviews (as evidenced by a 7% score on RT) and a terrible Rating (4.7 on IMDb), The Devil Inside posted the third-largest opening by a January film EVER, trailing only Cloverfield and the 1997 3D re-release of Star Wars. It easily eclipsed the record for a year’s leadoff hitter, shattering the predictions of pretty much everyone in the Fantaverse. Meanwhile, many of the December holdovers (Mission: Impossible, Sherlock Homes, The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo) continued to hold strong, and The Iron Lady reigned supreme as the PTA champ for the second straight week.

Exactly why did The Devil Inside go through the roof as it did? Well, probably the best explanation is because it was so well-placed: it was the first new film to go wide in almost two weeks, it was the only new film of the weekend (unless you count the expansion of Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy), and it was the first pure horror film to hit theaters since Paranormal Activity 3. So kudos to Paramount Pictures, who have officially gotten 2012 off to a much faster start than 2011 had.

However, don’t look for The Devil Inside to do anything spectacular this weekend. It’s commonplace for horror films to suffer the steepest drops in their second and third weekends, and that, coupled with the film’s bad word-of-mouth will probably drop it’s OW’s numbers by around 70% (if not more). And with the December films slowly waning, the door is slowly opening for the films of 2012 to take over, and there are three movies that will be debuting in wide release this Friday.

Last year, there were more films released in 3D than ever before, a trend that will continue in 2012 and beyond. It’s gotten to the point that 3D has become so commonplace now that if you are going to add a 3D element to a film, it had better be damn well worth the extra few bucks. It does seem, nowadays, that for every film that it is indeed worth donning the special glasses for the 3D experience, there are a handful of others that make you wonder why the studios even bothered. Last autumn, Disney decided to convert one of their most beloved films ever, The Lion King, to 3D and release it into just over 2,000 theaters. The response was phenomenal.

Not only did The Lion King blow its competition out of the water on its OW, pulling in an astounding $30 million, but it continued to bring in viewers through the end of the year, adding an additional $94 million to the film’s aggregate total. (With its two runs, it is now the second-highest grossing animated film of all time, behind only Shrek 2.) You had to figure that given the huge response, it was only a matter of time before Disney followed The Lion King up with another one of their more recent classics, and lo, here comes .Beauty and the Beast

It was November 1991 when the adaptation of the classic fairy tale was put into theaters. Given how famous the story is, you might be surprised to know that at no point was it ever showing in 2,000 at a given time. For this reason, it never achieved the #1 spot on any weekend (though it did nearly five months in the Top Ten). Ironically, the 2,500-theater release platform scheduled for the 3D version is the largest in the film’s history, and maybe, just maybe, it might get that #1 spot this time around.

I’m sure most of you know the story: an enchantress, disguised as a beggar, offers a handsome but callous young prince (voiced by Robby Benson) a rose in exchange for a night’s shelter. He turns her down, and she places a curse on his entire household, transforming him into a huge bestial figure and his many servants into pieces of sentient furniture or household items. The only way the curse can be broken is if the prince is able to find true love before he hits his 21st birthday, lest he remain a Beast for the rest of his life. Enter Belle (Paige O’Hara), a French lass whose beauty has come to the attention of Gaston (Richard White), whose advances she has shunned. When Belle’s father is imprisoned by the Beast, Belle offers herself in exchange… and thus begins a relationship that would become legend. The inestimable supporting cast includes Angela Lansbury, David Ogden Stiers and the late, great Jerry Orbach.

Much like The Lion King, the 3D re-release of Beauty and the Beast is very well-placed, at a time when there is little worthy or fresh competition. So the only question to ask is: can Beauty match Lion’s incredible output? Tough to say. Both films are beloved classics, eminently watchable and re-watchable by kids and adults of all ages, with Oscar-winning scores and memorable songs that make them worthy entries into the pantheon of all-time Disney greats. And while I believe that lightning can strike twice, it’s hard to imagine Beauty outdoing Lion, though I do foresee the numbers coming fairly close.

I will predict an OW of $27 million for Beauty and the Beast, followed by minimal drops in the ensuing weeks. In all, I envision ten Top 5 points, seven PTA and $76 million. For $15 in the January Ultimate leagues ($13 in Box Office), I would call this a must-have, particularly if you missed out on The Devil Inside. IMDb does not create separate pages for 3D re-releases of films, which means that the User Rating you will get is the 8.0 current attributed to it (with well over 100,000 votes), a number that is not likely to change by more than a tenth of a point. I’m not sure if any film this January that will break $75 million, but Beauty and the Beast certainly has the best chance of all of them.




From Universal comes Contraband, an action thriller from Icelandic director/producer Baltasar Kormákur (The Sea). The film stars Mark Wahlberg (who also co-produced) as Chris Farraday, an ex-criminal who gave up a life of crime long ago to start a family. However, after his brother-in-law Andy (Caleb Landry Jones) botches a drug deal for his ruthless boss, Briggs (Giovanni Ribisi), Chris is forced back into doing what he does best… smuggling contraband. Using his unique set of skills, Chris must navigate the minefield of druglords, cops and other various criminal scum in order to keep his family safe. Kate Beckinsale (who also has a movie, Underworld Awakening, opening next week), Ben Foster, Lukas Haas, J.K. Simmons and Mark’s brother Robert co-star.

Shot on location in New Orleans and Panama City, Panama, Contraband is set to bow in roughly 2,750 theaters this weekend. It’s been well-advertised, and Wahlberg is usually a pretty consistent draw, so I think that it will eke out a #2 finish this weekend over Joyful Noise (which I’ll get to in a moment), debuting with $18 million in its first three days. It will run you $11 in the Ultimate Leagues ($12 in Box Office), and for that, I think you will only get five or six Top 5 points, four PTA and a User Rating around 6.8. Not fantastic, but not horrible either.




The third film opening this Friday is Joyful Noise, a comedy-musical from Warner Bros and actor/director Todd Graff (Bandslam). It marks the return to the big screen of country music legend Dolly Parton, who was a viable star in the 80’s with films like Nine to Five, The Best Little Whorehouse in Texas and Steel Magnolias, but for whatever reason has not been in a major film since 1992’s Straight Talk. The film also stars Queen Latifah (whose last starring role was in the underwhelming Just Wright).

The story: the problems of a choir in Smalltown, U.S.A., a town hit hard by the flagging economy, compound when its long-time director unexpectedly passes away. Two strong-willed women immediately jockey for the position: Vi Rose Hill (Latiah), a single mother of two teens who believes that a traditional Gospel style, in keeping with the approval of the town’s pastor (Courtney B. Vance), is best, and the former director’s widow, G.G. Sparrow (Parton), who is convinced that a more contemporary sounds is the way to go.

Though the town would seem to need the inspiration of a choir more than ever, budgetary issues threaten the existence of the choir itself, so both women must find a way to not only work together but whip the choir into shape in time for the national “Joyful Noise” choir competition, a process made more complicated by the burgeoning romance developing between Vi Rose’s daughter Olivia (Keke Palmer) and G.G.’s grandson Randy (Jeremy Jordan). Kris Kristofferson and Jesse L. Martin also co-star.

It was just over seven years ago that the similarly-themed The Fighting Temptations wrangled $30 million in a fall 2003 release. I think that Joyful Noise will do a bit better than that, pulling in $16 million in its first three days (where it will be shown in over 2,700 locations), on its way to four or five Top 5 points, three PTA and $44 million. I wouldn’t count on the Rating being that high, so I would probably consider taking this film more in Box Office (where it carries a price tage of $10) than in Ultimate (where it is also $10).




My predictions for the weekend of January 13-15, 2012:

1. Beauty and the Beast (3D re-release) - $27 million
2. Contraband - $18 million
3. Joyful Noise - $16 million
4. Mission: Impossible Ghost Protocol – $12 million
5. The Devil Inside - $10 million
6. Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows – $10 million

Well, that will do it for me for another week. Next week, four more films take center stage as we plow on through January: Underworld Awakening, the fourth film in the vampries-vs.-werewolves franchise, with Kate Beckinsale back in the starring role; Haywire, a espionage action-thriller from director Stephen Soderbergh; Red Tails, a historical drama about the Tuskegee Airmen, the first-ever African-Americans to be trained as combat pilots in WWII; and, in limited release, Coriolanus, an adaptation of the Shakespearean tragedy starring Ralph Fiennes and Gerard Butler.

Celebrities with milestone (div. by 10) birthdays this week:

Kate Middleton (Duchess of Cambridge) (30 on 1/9)
Amanda Peet (2012, has a role in Terrence Malick’s next film) (40 on 1/11)
Trace Adkins (country singer, had a small role in The Lincoln Lawyer) (50 on 1/13)

Later!

[Buscemi]

1. Beauty and the Beast $30 million
2. Joyful Noise $21 million
3. Contraband $13 million (Universal seems to be marketing this as an art film for some reason and the villains seem incredibly pathetic, but that's just my opinion)
4. Mission: Impossible $12 million
5. Sherlock Holmes $10 million
6. Alvin and the Chipmunks 3 $7 million
7. The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo $7 million
8. The Devil Inside $7 million

[Geezer]

No idea what to expect from Joyful Noise or Contraband, but Beauty and the Beast should do very well.

[Buscemi]

Beauty and the Beast also has the added incentive of featuring Tangled Ever After before the film. With Tangled grossing over $200 million domestically, there are probably more than a few people who want to see the continuing adventures of Rapunzel and Flynn.

[transformers2]

Beauty and The Beast is without a doubt the only sure thing this weekend (Hell it might be the only sure thing for the rest of the month!). Contraband should do pretty well, but I don't think Joyful Noise will do anything at all.

[Geezer]

I don't know, Joyful Noise has gotten a LOT of airtime and I haven't seen much from Contraband. I think Joyful will beat it and could finish anywhere between 10 and 20, Contraband between 8 and 15. B and the B should break 20.

[Buscemi]

Joyful Noise will be huge in the South and will also do well in urban markets. We saw how The Help surprised and this film's main targets are the very same markets that film aimed for.

[englishozzy]

Judging by most people's slates, Beauty and the Beast is definitely a must have this month. Not sure about Contraband and Joyful Noise, i don't know whether there going to break out or flop big time.

1. Beauty and the Beast - $36 million
2. Joyful Noise - $19 million
3. Contraband - $18 million
4. Mission: Impossible Ghost Protocol - $12 million
5. The Devil Inside - $8 million
6. Sherlock Holmes: Ghost Protocol - $8 million

[numbersix]

Another weekend I don't have a great grasp of. Contraband could do really well or sink like a ship, I've no real grasp. I'll play it safe and say it has a moderate opening, even if it's an action film that will pale in comparison to the likes of MI4 and Sherlock 2.

Joyful Noise could do well, but again I don't know for sure. Saying it will do well just because it will appeal to an African-America audience is a bit reductive, but perhaps the feel-good, fun vibe with Parton involved may get the right audience.

As for Beauty and the Beast, it hasn't been tracking as well as The Lion King, so I think it will perform well and hold well, but not as much as many are hoping/expecting. I'm saying $20m opening with a $65m cume

And yeah, The Devil Inside will have a huge drop (not like the producers will care, it cost $1m to make!).

1. Beauty and the Beast $20 million
2. Joyful Noise $16 million
3. Contraband $14 million
4. Mission: Impossible $12 million
5. The Devil Inside $9 million

[numbersix]

It's also worth pointing out that Xmas 2005 had the exact same dates as Xmas 2011, and there have been similarities in terms of how the various films have held in subsequent. Indeed the first new film of 2006 was a horror that performed above expectations (Hotel, opening to 19mil). The following weekend four new releases came out. One was a kids movies (Hoodwinked, 12m OW), one featured Queen Latifah (Last Holiday, 12m), one a historical sports movie (Glory Road, 13.5m), and epic drama Tristan and Isolde ($6.5m). So can we assume that this weekend will underwhelm in a simliar way?

[Shrykespeare]

Time will tell, of course. HIstory often repeats itself in this game, but the parallels aren't necessarily so syncrhonous. Every film is different (well, most of them, anyway). Plus, you have to adjust for inflation, an increased number of theaters in the country, the economy, etc.

[Shrykespeare]

Official theater counts:

Contraband - 2,863
Joyful Noise - 2,735
Beauty and the Beast - 2,500 (est.)

The Devil Inside expands further, to 2,551 theaters.

Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy expands to 886 theaters.


Estimates for next week:

Underworld Awakening - 2,900
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close - 2,500 (expansion)
Red Tails - 2,500
Haywire - 2,000
Coriolanus - 3

[W]

Any estimates for Carnage? We're getting no Tinker Tailor and no Extremely Loud, but five showings of Carnage a day...

[Buscemi]

According to HSX, about 300 theatres on Carnage. It was also likely an easy title to ship prints for (it runs only 80 minutes).

[silversurfer19]

Apparently The Iron Lady is expanding into 800 theatres this weekend too. Hopefully with this and Extremely Loud my Full Year Draft will start making some moves finally...