SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 1/13/12

[Ron Burgundy]

This weekend is shite, not only has the Devil upset the order of whats right, Contraband looks a little bit b-grade. Joyful Noise is one of those film i have no interest at all, which could spell doom and Beauty could actually have the ol January curse.

BUT, with all three films getting a decent showing, it might be a lot closer than previously thought, im with six and geez that b and b will top out at about 15-20mm, with joy and contraband getting around 14m.

Im very interested in the next couple of weeks, ozzy says there nothing but i believe Man on a Ledge, Haywire and maybe The Grey will generate some interest, with 1 of them getting to 50m.

[Shrykespeare]

Hmmm.... it's early, but Haywire has a 100% score on RT so far with nine positive reviews, which includes reviews from the critics at Variety and the Hollywood Reporter, as well as Emanuel Levy.

Now I can't wait... even more, to see it.

[Shrykespeare]

Friday Estimates:

Contraband, $8.7M
Beauty and the Beast, $5.6M
Joyful Noise, $3.3M
Mission: Impossible, $3.2M
The Devil Inside, $2.7M
Sherlock Holmes, $2.4M
Girl w. Dragon Tattoo, $1.9M
War Horse, $1.6M
The Iron Lady, $1.5M
We Bought a Zoo, $1.4M
Alvin & the Chipmunks, $1.2M

Not surprising that BatB is low, given most kids' movies get most of their biz on Sat/Sun. Look for it to kill over the next two days.

Or, possibly not...



Weekend projections:

Contraband, $24M
Beauty and the Beast, $21.5M
Mission Impossible, $11.5M
Joyful Noise, $11.2M
Sherlock Holmes, $8.5M
Girl w. Dragon Tattoo, $7.5M
The Devil Inside, $7.2M (-79%.... is that a record?!)
War Horse, $5.6M
We Bought a Zoo, $5.5M
Alvin & the Chipmunks, $5.4M
The Iron Lady, $5.3M

Wow. Did not expect Contraband to win the weekend. Glad I picked it in the mini-draft league! (Less than ten chose it in Round One of the Ultimate FY.)

And it's early, but it looks like Extremely Loud might win the PTA this weekend too.




It would also seem to be a certainty that The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo will achieve $100 million. (The current projections, if they hold, would put it at $88 million). I am ecstatic, as it certainly deserves blockbuster status.

[numbersix]

Friday the 13th (the remake) dropped 80%, but that's pretty damn close

[W]

Biggest drops: http://boxofficemojo.com/alltime/weekends/drops.htm

BIggest drop: Undiscovered (86.4%)
Biggest Wide Release drop: Gigli (81.9%)
Biggest Drop for a $20+M (or $30+ or $40+M) opening (the one I'd compare it most to): Friday the 13th remake (80.4%)
Biggest Drop for a anywhere from $41-169 M opening: Harry Potter 8 (72%)

So, close if you're comparing it to movies that had anywhere close to the kind of opening it had.

[Chienfantome]

I'm surprised Contraband has such a solid number. I didn't pick it, damn.

[Shrykespeare]

Weekend Estimates

Top 13:
5 points - Contraband, $24.1M
4 points - Beauty and the Beast, $18.5M
3 points - Mission: Impossible, $11.5M
2 points - Joyful Noise, $11.3M
1 point - Sherlock Holmes, $8.4M
Girl w. Dragon Tattoo, $8.3M
The Devil Inside, $7.9M (-76%)
Alvin & the Chipmunks, $5.8M
War Horse, $5.6M
The Iron Lady, $5.4M
We Bought a Zoo, 5.2M
Adventures of Tintin, $4.0M
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, $3.1M

PTA (Nov/Dec):
5 points - We Need to Talk About Kevin
4 points - Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
3 points - A Separation
2 points - Contraband
1 point - Beauty and the Beast

PTA (Jan):
5 points - Contraband
4 points - Beauty and the Beast
3 points - Joyful Noise
2 points - The Devil Inside


I'm surprised B&B opened so low, but then, it is January, not September. And let's hear it for Kevin, returning to theaters after a full month off!

And that is now 14 PTA points for Extremely Loud (with it going wide next week, it probably won't get any more) and 10 for A Separation. Both are very worthy picks.

[Chienfantome]

Great thing for "A separation" yes !

[Brockster]

Beauty and the Beast had a good Monday hold compared to the drop of Contraband. Is this going to be one of those instances where a movie doesn't get first on the opening weekend, but ends up making more $$ and more Top 5 points than the movie it lost to the first weekend? It's rare, but I think it's happened a couple other times.

[Shrykespeare]

It has, but I don't see B&B holding on to beat Underworld Awakening. It may finish at #2 again.

[Brockster]

well yeah, that's what i meant, beating Contraband this weekend and ending up making more BO and Top 5 than it.