SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films (Well, FILM) of 1/6/12

[Shrykespeare]

And thus, 2011 ended. Mission: Impossible Ghost Protocol and Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows finished the calendar year with identical Top 5 points (thirteen) and with nearly identical box office takes ($134 and $132 million, respectively). True, M:I4 has slightly more momentum going forward, but it’s clear that these two films will end up being the two biggest films of December. Kudos must also go to Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy, which earned PTA points for the fourth straight week and brought its overall PTA point total to seventeen, which ties it with The Help for the most PTA points earned by any film in 2011. The Iron Lady and A Separation finished 1-2 in that category this past weekend.

Thanks, again, to every single person who participated in the 2011 Super Leagues. Both Full-Year tournaments as well as both of the second-half Half-Year tournaments finish up today (Sunday), and as soon as this weekend’s numbers become final, the tournament winners will be posted. I am so looking forward to getting it all started up again (mostly to wash my dismal performance this past year out of my mouth). It’s not too late to sign up, and if you have, please remember to enter the leagues, if you haven’t already!

How does one start off a brand new year? Well, if you are a studio figuring out where to dump a film that will probably not bring in a tremendous amount of moviegoers, the answer would be “cautiously”. It’s a new year. The holiday season is over. Kids are returning to school, adults are returning to work, and everybody is getting started on their half-assed attempt to satisfy whatever New Year’s resolutions they made. As far as movies go, most people are still to catch (or catch again) any number of Christmas holdovers that are still being shown. To put something new against all that is a risky venture, which is why most studios don’t even try, instead preferring to give those holiday films a buffer before introducing some new flavors into the mix.

The very first weekend of the year often heralds one, and only one, new title, or at least is has done in the past few years. That film is usually a low-budget or low-grade (or both) horror film, shoved into a couple thousand theaters with a “might as well” attitude by whatever studio is distributing it. That film, this year, is Paramount’s The Devil Inside.

No, this film is not an adaptation of the 2000 video game from Cryo Interactive. Rather, the latest in an ever-lengthening list of exorcism movies, a list that includes recent films such as The Exorcism of Emily Rose, The Last Exorcism and The Rite. Director William Brent Bell (Stay Alive) is in the big chair for this film, which has precisely zero recognizable names in the cast and is shot documentary-style. Wonder if it’ll have the INXS song of the same name in there somewhere…

The story: in October of 1989, a woman named Maria Rossi (Suzan Crowley) undergoes an exorcism, but ends up murdering three people while ostensibly being possessed by a demon. Enter the Catholic Church, and Maria is committed to a psychiatric hospital in Rome. Twenty years later, Maria’s daughter Isabelle (played by Brazilian-born actress Fernanda Andrade) hires a film crew and searches for a pastor/scientist to help Maria, largely out of fear that psychological problems such as her mother’s might be hereditary. As it turns out, Maria’s possession is unique, and after several more failed exorcism attempts, things start to really go horribly wrong. Simon Quartermain (Scorpion King 2), Evan Helmuth (Fever Pitch) and Ionut Grama (The Whistleblower) co-star.

The last found-footage horror film not part of the Paranormal Activity series was last September’s Apollo 18, which fizzled at the box office, bringing in a mere $18 million. Go back to the previous September, and the even-more-similar The Last Exorcism was able to open impressively, bringing in $20 million in its first three days on its way to $41 million overall. And then there’s the timing… early January is not the best slot for a film like this, but then again, it’s been a while since there has been any pure-horror films in theaters (The Darkest Hour notwithstanding). As a point of reference, here is how January’s leadoff horror-genre hitters have done over the past few years:

2011: Season of the Witch (Relativity) - $10M OW (#3, 2816 theaters), $25M overall
2010: Daybreakers (Lionsgate) - $15M OW (#4, 2523 theaters), $30M overall
2009: The Unborn (Universal) - $19M OW (#3, 2357 theaters), $42M overall*
2008: One Missed Call (Warner Bros) - $12M OW (#5, 2240 theaters), $27M overall
2006: Hostel (Lionsgate) - $19M OW (#1, 2195 theaters), $47M overall
2005: White Noise (Universal) - $24M OW (#2, 2261 theates), $56M overall

* - The Unborn finished just behind Bride Wars, which also debuted that same weekend.

If you throw out Season of the Witch, these numbers aren’t all that bad, all things considered. I’m not sure exactly how many theaters The Devil Inside will be in, but I am virtually certain it will be somewhere in the 2,000-2,500 range. Add all that up, what does it mean? Well, I can’t really base my prediction by how much advertising I’ve seen (which hasn’t been much, not that I’ve been actively looking for it), so I’ll play it safe and project an opening three days of $13 million for The Devil Inside, on its way to three Top 5 points and $27 million overall. I wouldn’t take this film in any but the January leagues (where it is price at $6 in Ultimate, $7 in Box Office), and only because it is guaranteed no fewer than seven PTA points (five this week, at least two next week). It won’t help you in the other two categories, but there are so few sure things in the early part of the year.




My predictions for the weekend of January 6-8, 2012:

1. Mission: Impossible Ghost Protocol – $19 million
2. Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows – $14 million
3. The Devil Inside - $13 million
4. Alvin & the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked – $12 million
5. War Horse - $11 million

So, now that that’s over with (and in record time!), let me take advantage of this rather sparse weekend by filling my allotted space with what I like to call “My Ten Most Anticipated Films of 2012 (January-April). This is subject to change, of course, since there are still quite a few titles coming in the next four months that haven’t yet produced a trailer or a poster. It’s also possible that any of those films may be pushed back to summertime or beyond.

This was actually pretty hard to do. A lot of what’s coming looks at least watchable, and only a handful just leap out at me as a must-see. But, as it stands now, here is my list.

SHRYKESPEARE’S TEN MOST ANTICIPATED FILMS OF 2012 (JAN-APR):

10. Ghost Rider: Spirit of Vengeance (2/17) – I’m one of the few who actually enjoyed the original, even though, let’s face it, Ghost Rider is a third-tier Marvel hero at best. And before you ask, it’s only because I’m still a comic-geek kid at heart that I’m even interested in this, and the trailer actually looks pretty cool. I have absolutely loathed pretty much everything Neveldine/Taylor have done up to this point, but I’m hoping that Spirit of Vengeance is the kind of bad movie that you still end up liking.

9. The Raven (3/9) – I’m a sucker for any dramatic film set in 18th- or19th-century England, the era of Sherlock Holmes, Jack the Ripper and whatnot. When you combine the noirish tones of From Hell with the macabre goriness of Saw, you get The Raven. Throw in John Cusack, long one of my favorite (and still underrated) actors, and the fact that James McTiegue – the guy who directed V For Vendetta, one of my all-time faves – is behind the camera for this one… well, that’s all you need to say to get me in the theater.

8. Lockout (4/20) – My anticipation for this one has grown tenfold since the trailer, came out. It’s a sci-fi film, a prison break film, and it has Guy Pearce doing his best Jeffrey Donovan (Burn Notice's Michael Westen) impersonation? I am so there. If I end up liking it even close to as much as I liked last April’s twisty sci-fi drama Source Code, I will leave the theater a very happy man.

7. Dr. Seuss’ The Lorax (3/2) – It’s mostly because this film, visually anyway, bears such a striking resemblance to Horton Hears a Who! (a film I came to truly love) that I’m so stoked to see it. I don’t remember anything at all of the actual story, but I suspect that won’t matter that much. I also have a sneaking suspicion that Danny DeVito’s line “You’ve been warrrrrrrrrrrned-da” may become one of the biggest catch-phrases of the year.

6. Man on a Ledge (1/27) – Except for Sam Worthington (who was very good in The Debt), it’s been a while since anyone in this film’s primary cast has done anything exceptional (Elizabeth Banks, Ed Harris, Kyra Sedgwick, Edward Burns), but I love films that feature misdirection as the main theme. I can only hope that it ends up being a better film than the barely-entertaining Phone Booth. If nothing else, this will be the film that makes Genesis Rodriguez the latest hot-as-a-supernova Latina actress to grace the screen. Rrowr!

5. Haywire (1/20) – I love espionage thrillers that feature females at the chief protagonist, and though Gina Carano is a complete stranger to me, the amazing cast that Stephen Soderbergh has assembled to back her up (Michael Fassbender, Ewen McGregor, Michael Douglas, Antonio Banderas, Bill Paxton) is more than enough to make me want to see it. Soderbergh has more checkmarks in my “like” column than in my “dislike” column, so I have every hope that this film will be as kick-ass as it is entertaining.

4. The Hunger Games (3/23) – This film might have been #1 on this list if I were a bit younger, or if I had been one of the millions to read the novel the film is based upon. Even so, the whole premise for The Hunger Games fascinates me in a Logan’s-Run-meets-The-Most-Dangerous-Game kind of way, and Jennifer Lawrence is an oustanding actress for her age. We’ve all been wondering what the next big “series” of movies based on literary works might be… well, this could be it.

3. Safe House (2/10) – I don’t know who Daniel Espinosa is, but it looks like he went to the Tony Scott Action Film Academy, doesn’t it? Denzel Washington is at his best when he plays cool-as-a-cucumber tough guys, and though Ryan Reynolds is coming off a tough year, this on-screen combination looks like a real winner. As long as it doesn’t involve Ryan spending any time preening in a mirror, we’re good.

2. The Pirates: Band of Misfits (3/30) – I have been an ardent fan of pretty much everything that Aardman Studios has produced. Chicken Run, Wallace and Gromit, Flushed Away, I adored them all. What better way to spoof the POTC movies than this? Every trailer that is released is funnier than the previous one, and… ooh, look! It’s a monkey!

1. John Carter (3/9) – This is pretty much all blind faith. Of all the big-budget films coming out in the first third of the year, this one – by far – looks to be reaching the highest. Taylor Kitsch (who has a small role as Gambit in Wolverine) gets his first leading role here, and I’m interested to see what he does with it. Yes, it’s CGI’ed out the wazoo, and the arena scene rather uncomfortably reminds me of Attack of the Clones… but when it comes right down to it, Andrew Stanton directed three terrific Pixar films (including Finding Nemo and WALL-E), and that’s more than enough reason for me to see it.

Films I Also Plan to Definitely See in Theaters: Contraband, Underworld Awakening, Big Miracle, Journey 2: The Mysterious Island, This Means War, Gone, A Thousand Words, Wrath of the Titans, Safe.

Films I May Catch in Theaters If I’m In the Right Mood (or Otherwise on DVD): The Devil Inside, Joyful Noise, Red Tails, One For the Money, The Grey, Chronicle, The Woman in Black, Wanderlust, Think Like a Man, 21 Jump Street, The Cabin in the Woods, Chimpanzee.

Waiting on a Trailer Before I Make Up My Mind: Hansel and Gretel: Witch Hunters, Playing the Field, Learning to Fly, The Cold Light of Day, Bullet to the Head, Seeking a Friend For the End of the World, The Wettest County.

No Interest Whatsoever: Any and all 3D re-releases, The Vow, The Secret World of Arrietty, Act of Valor, Project X, Mirror Mirror, American Reunion, The Three Stooges, Scary Movie 5, The Five-Year Engagement, The Lucky One.


Well, that will do it for me for another week. Next week, three films get the year rolling in earnest, as 2012 tries to assert itself against the holdovers of 2011, and they are: Contraband, a crime thriller starring Mark Wahlberg and Kate Beckinsale; Joyful Noise, a musical comedy starring Queen Latifah and Dolly Parton; and finally, the 3D re-release of the classic Disney film Beauty and the Beast.

Celebrities with milestone (div. by 10) birthdays this week:

Dabney Coleman (9 to 5) (80 on 1/3)
Sammo Hung Kam-Bo (Martial Law) (60 on 1/7)
Stephen Hawking (theoretical physicist) (70 on 1/8)

Later!

[numbersix]

1st week in Jan usually sees large drops from the holidays, so I'll say:

1. Mission: Impossible Ghost Protocol – $16 million
2. Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows – $13 million
3. The Devil Inside - $13 million
4. Alvin & the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked – $12 million
5. War Horse - $12 million

[Buscemi]

The Devil Inside will be having preview screenings on the 5th (starting at 9:00 pm), which will likely add $1-2 million to the gross.

When I saw the trailer before Paranormal Activity 3, reaction was awful but you never know with horror (the same screening had a positive trailer reaction to Chronicle but I can't see audiences reacting well to a superhero film with no likeable characters).

[Brockster]

Tracking is actually quite high on MTC for Devil, should be interesting to see how it goes. I think for $6 it's certainly worth the PTA and Top 5 it should get in the Jan-March leagues.

Maybe it's just nostalgia b/c the original came out when I was in high school, but I'm really looking forward to American Reunion. I thought the first one was hilarious and the 2nd and 3rd were worth watching on DVD too (the rest that followed were complete shit, but lacked all the major players).

[Shrykespeare]

Theater counts:

The Devil Inside - 2,285

Also:

Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy - 809 (so probably no more PTA points, but at least now I'll be able to SEE it!)


Estimates for next week:

Contranband - 2,750
Joyful Noise - 2,700+
Beauty and the Beast - 2,500

[W]

I didn't know anyone counted the ones without Jason Biggs, Sean William Scott, Alyson Hannigan, et al as real sequels...

[Buscemi]

Jim's dad was in the fourth film and that one references past events, so it at least is canon.

[Brockster]

Yeah I don't count them as sequels, just shitty attempts to make more money (wait, isn't that was sequels are? lol)


Anyway, MTC is tracking Devil at 17M

[Buscemi]

The Thursday night shows for The Devil Inside grossed $2 million (according to HSX), much of that coming from Latino-heavy markets. However, poor word-of-mouth is expected due to the film reportedly not having an ending.

[Brockster]

new projections for Devil are over 20M...I hope that pans out cuz I picked it on most of my January slates (ultimate).

[Chienfantome]

Deadline is reporting a $12 million Friday opening for The Devil Inside ! Damn ! Projecting $25 million for the weekend !

[numbersix]

Damn, I should have added it to all my BO slates as well, as it will surely make $50m cume if it opens to 25m

[Geezer]

That's nuts! Now I wish I added it to the BO slates. Didn't think it would come close to those numbers.

[Shrykespeare]

You and me both, Geez.

[Shrykespeare]

Has anyone actually SEEN The Devil Inside yet? (ROBdude?)

How was it?