SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 12/28/11-12/30/11

[Shrykespeare]

So it turns out that Tom Cruise was the king of Christmas weekend, as Mission: Impossible Ghost Protocol soared to a towering win this past weekend, collecting over $26 million, significantly ahead of Robert Downey Jr. and Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows. Of the films that debuted over the past seven days, it was David Fincher’s The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo that finished the highest, garnering $24 million in its first five days, well ahead of The Adventures of Tintin and We Bought a Zoo. Meanwhile, on the PTA front, Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy took first place, just ahead of Roman Polanski’s Carnage.

2011 is coming to an end. A year that saw many, many films fail to reach their potential; case in point, only six films topped $200 million in 2011 (so far), and not a single one of those was an animated film (Believe it or not, it was Cars 2’s $190 million that topped that particular list). It was also a hit-or-miss for sequels: apart from the latest installments in the Transformers, Pirates of the Caribbean, Twilight, Hangover, Fast & Furious and Paranormal Activity franchises, most other sequels saw their prospects come to a screeching halt.

For the first time ever, Harry Potter went toe-to-toe with Transformers and came out ahead, taking the #1 spot for 2011 in that franchise’s last hurrah. Addtionally, a year rife with superhero films actually saw some pretty consistent numbers across the board. Thor led the way with $181 million, followed by Captain America ($176 million), X-Men: First Class ($146 million) and Green Lantern ($116 million).

Most of the year’s surprise hits were comedies or family films. No one, and I mean no one, could have predicted that The Help would soar to an unbelievable $169 million when it came out, could they? Same goes for Bridesmaids (also $169 million), the female-centric adult comedy that put Kristen Wiig on everybody’s lips. And lest we forget, there were other blockbuster comedies as well, including Horrible Bosses ($117 million), Just Go With It ($103 million) and Bad Teacher ($100 million).

What will 2012 bring? Will it be a step up from 2011? I would like to think so. However, before we start looking ahead to next year, we have to finish this one off, so let’s get started.

With only one week left in the Super Leagues, a few of the races have already been decided. However, in the Ultimate leagues, there are races that will go right down to the wire, and this week’s three films, the three final films to be released in the calendar year 2011, may or may not have something to do with who hoists the virtual trophy come New Year’s. All three are limited-release films, and will be showcased in only a handful of theaters this weekend, which makes every single one of them a legitimate threat to win the PTA crown.

The first of these three films is Pariah, which will be debuting in four locations this Wednesday. Much like 2009’s Precious, the film centers on a teenage African-American girl living in one of the rougher neighborhoods in New York City. Also like Precious, the film looks to be a very deep, emotionally-charged film, with the conflict stemming from the teenage girl’s fight for acceptance and the girl’s mother (and society in general) as the antagonist.

Pariah tells the story of Alike (Adepero Oduye), a 17-year-old Brooklyn girl who is quietly but firmly embracing her identity as a lesbian. Living at home with her parents (Charles Parnell and Kim Wayans), Alike has managed to maintain an excellent scholastic record and is nurturing a burgeoning love for poetry. However, when Alike’s sexuality becomes a point of contention with her mother, who is not concerned as much about her sexual orientation but rather how lesbians are still ostracized by much of society… in fact, Alike’s best friend Laura (Pernell Walker) came out not long before, and is now estranged from her family.

Pariah is director Dee Rees’s very first film, but it is certainly unlikely to be her last, given by the amazing reception Pariah has gotten: since making its debut at Sundance earlier this year (where it won the award for Excellence in Cinematography), it has gotten nothing but rave reviews. Its current RT score is an amazing 100%, with all sixteen critics that have reviewed it giving it a thumbs-up. It also has a very impressive User Rating of 7.5 at IMDb (though with only 162 votes), which is just about what Precious finished with… and it’s worth noting that these Ratings are very atypical for films with primarily African-American casts.

Pariah will be expanding to only ten theaters next week (according to the film’s website), so for only $4 in Ultimate leagues, this film could very well end up bringing in PTA points in multiple weeks, especially when you consider that only one film is debuting next week, and it is highly unlikely to be a PTA monster. With a pedigree like this, no one could fault you for taking this film.




Next up is A Separation, an Iranian drama whose accolates up to this point have been even more impressive than Pariah’s, if you can believe it. It was the hottest property at the Berlin International Film Festival earlier this year, receiving awards for Best Film, Best Actor and Best Actress, becoming the first Iranian film ever win that award. It is also nomated for the Oscar for Best Foreign Film (and is the likely favorite to win, from what I hear). It, too, has a perfect score on RT, as all thirty of the critics that have reviewed it have given their stamp of approval. Wow.

Taking place in modern-day Iran, A Separation centers on the turmoil of married couple Simin (Leila Hatami) and Nader (Peyman Moadi). Simon, you see, wants to leave Iran with Nader and her young daughter Termeh (Sarina Farhadi, the daughter of director Asghar Farhadi) in search of a better, less restrictive life, but Nader refuses to leave because he is forced to take care of his Alzheimer’s-stricken father. Simin therefore files for divorces, but it is denied, and with no other recourse, she moves back in with her parents. Nader is therefore forced to hire a young pregnant woman named Razieh to assist him, and that’s when things get really complicated.

A Separation will be debuting in three theaters in New York and Los Angeles this Friday. In the next month, it will be adding an average of a couple theaters per week before spreading out to roughly a hundred by February. With a platform like that (coinciding with the Academy Awards), there’s no reason to believe that this film can’t manage double-digits in PTA points. And if the RT score wasn’t enough to convince you of THAT, its current Rating should: it’s now at a whopping 8.6 with over 20,000 votes, which means it’s unlikely to change at all. There are very few sure bets in this game, but A Separation would seem to be one of them. For $5 in Ultimate, grab it with both hands.




There’s a reason that no one in history has garnered more Oscar acting nominations than Meryl Streep. It’s because she’s… well, Meryl Streep. Certainly no current actress in Hollywood is more respected, and if you have an Oscar-bait movie requiring someone to play the role of a famous historical figure, well, you just can’t go wrong with Meryl. She played actress Karen Silkwood with verve, and brought energetic life to her role as Julie Child in 2009. And now, she puts her stamp on former British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher, probably the most important woman in British history that is not a member of the Royal Family, in The Iron Lady.

Director Phyllida Lloyd (who also directed Streep in Mamma Mia!) is behind the camera for this film, which will be bowing in four theaters this Friday. It will be told as a narrative through a series of flashbacks, and will include the 17-day period leading up to the Falkland Islands War in 1982. Of course, one can imagine the early struggles Thatcher had to endure as well, trying to take control of a country that was in the middle of a steep decline at the time despite the handicap of being a woman in a government that didn’t have very many. Academy Award winner Jim Broadbent (Iris) plays Margaret’s husband Denis.

Compared to other recent biopics of political figures, I would venture that The Iron Lady will finish on the respect-meter somewhere between J. Edgar and The King’s Speech. In other words, it probably won’t disappoint, but neither will it run away with tons of awards either. Its current RT score is good but not fantastic (69% on 21/30 reviews), and despite the presense of Streep, I have to believe that the PTA chances of The Iron Lady are just not as strong as those of Pariah or A Separation. (Certainly not the latter, anyway.)

It’s entirely possible that The Iron Lady will go wide at some point, much like The King’s Speech did, but that is by no means a sure thing. For $7 in Ultimate ($6 in Box Office), I would venture that it’s too big a gamble. Better to take the sure thing in A Separation and save your other PTA picks for a less-crowded time period.




My predictions for the weekend of December 30, 2011-January 1, 2012:

1. Mission: Impossible Ghost Protocol – $18 million
2. Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows – $11 million
3. The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo - $10 million
4. Alvin & the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked – $9 million
5. The Adventures of Tintin – $7 million

Well, that will do it for me for another YEAR. Would you believe I talked about 250 since 2011 started?? And next week, we start it all over again. (And there was much rejoicing…) Only one film is on tap to lead off 2012, that being horror flick The Devil Inside, the latest in a long line of “exorcism” films. I’ll also be previewing my Most Anticipated Films of 2012 (January-April). Don’t forget to enter the Super Leagues, and Happy New Year to all of you!

Celebrities with milestone (div. by 10) birthdays this week:

Jared Leto (Fight Club, American Psycho) (40 on 12/26)
Emilie de Ravin (Lost, Brick) (30 on 12/27)
Sienna Miller (Stardust, G.I. Joe: The Rise of Cobra) (30 on 12/28)

Happy New Year, everybody!

[numbersix]

Which will win the PTA crown this weekend? Hmm... probably The Iron Lady but I suspect A Separation will make more in total. Pariah should be quite the earner too. All 3 are worth getting, and certainly have more potential on the PTA front than any other January release. I have them all on various slates.

In 2005 none of the major releases made less money than on Xmas weekend. Considering how screwed we all are financially, I will say we'll see slight drops across the board. War Horse will of course make more than last weekend as it was released on the Sunday alone.

1. Mission: Impossible Ghost Protocol – $25 million
2. Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows – $18 million
3. War Horse – $13 million
4. Alvin & the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked – $12 million
5. The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo - $11 million

[Buscemi]

Last year, only the top three movies (in the top 20) suffered drops. I see a similar result.

1. Mission: Impossible $25 million
2. Sherlock Holmes 2 $18 million
3. Alvin and the Chipmunks 3 $14 million
4. War Horse $13 million
5. The Adventures of Tintin $12 million
6. We Bought A Zoo $12 million
7. The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo $11 million

[W]

A Separation is already #110 on the Top 250. That's kind of crazy.

[Chienfantome]

I don't see what's crazy about that, the film has been released in most countries for months...

[englishozzy]

I think A Separation should take out the PTA crown, english films don't tend to do well in the US.

1. Mission: Impossible Ghost Protocol - $20 million
2. War Horse - $17 million
3. Sherlock Holmes: Game of Shadows - $16 million
4. The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo - $12 million
5. Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked - $10 million
6. The Adventures of Tintin - $10 million

[Buscemi]

I see Pariah likely winning in PTA. It's the only film right now for the urban crowd and those films usually have strong PTA. Also, remember how Precious did in 2009 (though a $100,000 PTA is only a pipe dream).

[Chienfantome]

A separation will grab the PTA crown this weekend.

[numbersix]

I think A Separation should take out the PTA crown, english films don't tend to do well in the US.

Yeah, it's not like an English film won the Oscar last year and went on to make over $130m in the US alone

For me I see The Queen being a good comparison. Another film about an existing English figure with a high profile lead performance (that may just win the Oscar). The reviews for Iron Lady aren't as good, which will certainly affect its overall BO potential, but this weekend Iron Lady's 4 theatres will ensure 35K+ per theatre. I see that beating A Separation (though perhaps just about) and Pariah (there are many reasons why this isn't the next Precious, from marketing to subject matter) for this weekend at least. You'll probably see a reversal next weekend with A Separation taking top spot, followed by Pariah and then this.

[Buscemi]

Lesbianism was a (very) minor element of Precious and was a very graphic film (possibly more graphic than anything in Pariah, since we haven't seen the film yet). Though Pariah doesn't have the strength of an Oprah or a Tyler Perry, I believe it can take the advantage of an empty market (there hasn't been a black-themed movie since The Help) and the strong reviews guarantee crossover appeal.

[numbersix]

I would be very careful about the assumption that just because a film features a mostly African-American cast every african-american in the country will want to see it. This feels like a very indie film, with no stars, no backing from an established producer/financier, no clear awards buzz, and is essentially a coming-of-age story about a lesbian girl (a hardly uncommon theme in a subculture of film-making that rarely breaks out).

Don't get me wrong, I can see PTA opportunities in this (it's just not as easy a sell as Iron Lady or A Separation), but if it made any more than $3m in cume I'd be surprised. Hell, not even Almodovar's latest film (his best in years) could hit $3m

[Buscemi]

Precious had a similar indie feel though. I do feel that in an empty market, a certain audience (black, Hispanic, Southern US, Christian, any demographic) will want to watch something that speaks to them. We saw Courageous do well with Christian audiences and The Help did well with the black and Southern audiences. And we see how well Tyler Perry does.

And the opening day numbers for Pariah are in. It did a $5,456 PTA in four theatres and is being expected to do $20,000 PTA for the weekend. Strong numbers, I feel. Definitely not Precious (I wasn't expecting that high) but good nonetheless.

[Shrykespeare]

Theater Counts:

Pariah - 4
The Iron Lady - 4
A Separation - 3

[Shrykespeare]

Friday Estimates (BOM):

Mission Impossible, $10.7M
Sherlock Holmes, $7.65M
Alvin & Chipmunks, $7.125M
Girl w. Dragon Tattoo, $5.35M
We Bought a Zoo, $4.9M
War Horse, $4.685M
Adv. of Tintin, $4.391M
New Year's Eve, $2.27M
The Darkest Hour, $1.7M
The Descendants, $1.11M
The Muppets, $1.109M


Weekend Projections (BO.com):

Mission Impossible, $30M
Sherlock Holmes, $21.5M
Alvin & Chipmunks, $18.2M
Girl w. Dragon Tattoo, $15.2M
War Horse, $13.3M
We Bought a Zoo, $13.2M
Adv. of Tintin, $11.7M
New Year's Eve, $6M
The Darkest Hour, $4.3M
The Descendants, $3.3M
The Muppets, $2.9M



The Iron Lady made $76,300 ($19,075 PTA) on Friday. No word yet on A Separation.

[numbersix]

A PTA like that will suggest The Iron Lady will have a 3-day PTA of 60K, meaning it will beat the OW PTA of The Descendants and The Artist (but not Tinker Tailor and Midnight in Paris). Definitely #1 of the weekend.

And Pariah had a big drop on Thursday and it may struggle to make any PTA points this weekend if Tinker Tailor and Extremely Loud hold well (which the latter certainly seems to be doing).