SPEARE'S TIPS - The films of 12/21/11 to 12/25/11

[Buscemi]

Friday numbers (from Deadline, I just listed the important titles):

1. Mission: Impossible $9.5 million Friday, $20.1 million three-day, $37.5 million four-day
2. Sherlock Holmes 2 $6.5 million Friday, $16.6 million three-day, $26.7 million four-day
3. Alvin and the Chipmunks 3 $5.4 million Friday, $12.2 million three-day, $21.6 million four-day
4. The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo $4.6 million Friday, $12.3 million three-day, $19.2 million four-day
5. The Adventures of Tintin $3.7 million Friday, $9.3 million three-day, $14.5 million four-day
6. We Bought A Zoo $3 million Friday, $7.9 million three-day, $12.3 million four-day

We Bought A Zoo disappoints on opening day and looks to be a distant third in the family movie Holiday race. I attribute the disappointing opening on two things.

1. The trailers. This was hardly promoted as a family film but instead as a film for adults. With Crowe trying to make a comeback (this was his third film this year after a six-year hiatus) and him entering a different genre, more emphasis should have been placed on Crowe doing something different and promoting the relationship between a family and the animals rather than trying to win back Crowe's old crowd that abandoned him after Vanilla Sky and Elizabethtown.

2. Too many sneak previews before release. The first preview worked well but the second (done to bump up opening weekend numbers on The Sitter, which is also why so many theatres played multiple prints of that film) wasn't the best idea to do and weakly attended to boot. The problem with sneaks is that while one is good, two or more is usually overdoing it.

Another thing I've noticed is how close The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo and Tintin's totals are. The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo was expected by many to blow away Tintin but the latter is expected to be just $3 million back by Monday.

[Chienfantome]

This is all very low numbers. It's really a disappointing end of the year box-office.

[Geezer]

Agree with Chien, low numbers all across the board. Very disappointing, but the legs should be good for most if not all of them, with the January abyss right around the corner.

[Chienfantome]

Hopefully so, Geez.

[numbersix]

Looking at 2005, the films released during Christmas Week all had multipliers of between 5 and 8.8 of their 3-day weekend. So we can assume all these films, which have better reviews already, not to mention have very little competition until mid Jan, will hold well. MI4 could earn up to 200m, Sherlock up to 150m, Alvin 100, Dragon Tattoo 90, Tintin 80, Zoo 80, etc. But it all depends on which audiences like the most. Let the guessing commence...

[Shrykespeare]

Friday Estimates (BOM):

Mission: Impossible, $9.7M
Sherlock Holmes, $6.8M
Alvin 3, $5.4M
Dragon Tattoo, $4.6M
TIntin, $3.5M
We Bought a Zoo, $3M
New Year's Eve, $1.3M
Arthur Xmas, $1M
The Muppets, $930K
Twilight, $700K

Also, In the Land of Blood and Honey debuted with $6,700 in 3 theaters which, among all of the wide release films, puts it #2 behind Mission Impossible. (Could M:I win the PTA for the second straight week??)

[Shrykespeare]

Sunday Estimates

Top 11:
5 points - Mission: Impossible, $26.5M
4 points - Sherlock Holmes, $17.8M
3 points - Alvin & the Chipmunks, $13.3M
2 points - The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo, $13.3M
1 point - The Adventures of Tintin, $9.1M
We Bought a Zoo, $7.8M
New Year's Eve, $3.0M
Arthur Christmas, $2.7M
Twilight, $2.1M
Hugo, $2.0M
The Muppets, $2.0M

PTA:
5 points - Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
4 points - Carnage
3 points - Mission: Impossible
2 points - In the Land of Blood and Honey
1 point - The Artist


Keep in mind this list does not include the Sunday debuts.

[undeadmonkey]

Tinker Tailer has been a fantastic pick so far, will it go wide soon?

[Shrykespeare]

I'm hoping it will. Though it may not go "wider" than a few hundred theaters.

[Buscemi]

According to Deadline, War Horse had a $7 million opening day while The Darkest Hour opened to $2.5 million.

Meanwhile, Wim Wenders' Pina probably should have been in the game. A $20,000+ PTA (with an possibly bigger PTA next week, due to it being in 3-D and having more Saturday shows) would have been an easy 5 points.

Also, My Week With Marilyn bombed in wide release with just $507,000 in 602 theatres. This is the sixteenth worst wide opening ever, according to Box Office Mojo.

[Geezer]

Wow, I was NOT expecting that from War Horse.

[Buscemi]

It had a damn good trailer and word-of-mouth screenings went extremely well. I think I remember saying this movie had a shot at $100 million.

[Geezer]

Personally I thought the trailer sucked and the entire concept was ridiculous.

[transformers2]

I'm not fully shocked War Horse did that well, but it is a bit surprising to me.

[Shrykespeare]

According to BoxOffice, here is how the PTA will finish up:

5 points - Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
4 points - Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
3 points - Mission: Impossible Ghost Protocol
2 points - Carnage
1 point - In the Land of Blood and Honey