SPEARE'S TIPS - THE FILMS OF 12/16/11

[Geezer]

No, its not that huge until you consider the amount of theaters. Show me a film that was ever released in 400 theaters that came close to that number. 30K is damn good, but gets overshadowed by films that only start in a few theaters. When a film gets released in such an odd number, anywhere in the 50-1000 range, we generally consider them to be non-starters. However, its likely that MI:4 will be PTA champ this week, while coming in third, and winning next weekend, possibly winning PTA again, but less likely. Still, those are huge numbers. You'd be hard pressed to find a similar situation of a film released in that dead zone of theater count to put up a great PTA. There is really only one comparable that I know of, and its the Hannah Montana Concert Movie, and its not even a great comparison because that wasn't even a movie, first of all, and second of all was marketed as a "one-week engagement." Its a damn fine accomplishment and bodes VERY well for the prospects of the film, which should be the biggest of the holiday season.

[undeadmonkey]

true, but when was the last time that a wide tentpole release like this has gotten a staggered release, so you can't really compare it to 'indie' films that just barely managed to get a theatrical release with a few hundred theaters.

[Buscemi]

The Empire Strikes Back in 1980 is the only one I can recall. It opened in 126 theatres (nearly all of them in 70mm) being expanding wide a month later.

Three years later, Brainstorm and The Right Stuff were released the same way but weren't very successful theatrically.

[Shrykespeare]

Friday Estimates (BOM):

1. Sherlock Homes, $14.7M
2. Alvin & Chipmunks, $6.8M
3. Mission: Impossible, $4.1M
4. New Year's Eve, $2.5M
5. The Sitter, $1.4M
6. Twilight, $1.3M
7. Young Adult, $1.1M
8. Hugo, $966K
9. The Descendants, $966K
10. The Muppets, $854K
11. Arthur Christmas, $840K


Weekend Projections (Box Office):

1. Sherlock Homes, $42M
2. Alvin & Chipmunks, $23.5M
3. Mission: Impossible, $12M
4. New Year's Eve, $7.8M
5. The Sitter, $4.5M
6. Twilight, $4.1M
7. Young Adult, $3.2M
8. Hugo, $3.5M
9. Arthur Christmas, $3.6M
10. The Muppets, $3.3M
11. The Descendants, $3.1M

[silversurfer19]

BOM Weekend Estimates:

1. Sherlock Homes, $40M
2. Alvin & Chipmunks, $23.5M
3. Mission: Impossible, $13M
4. New Year's Eve, $7.4M
5. The Sitter, $4.4M

6. Twilight, $4.3M
7. Young Adult, $3.6M
8. Hugo, $3.6M
9. Arthur Christmas, $3.6M
10. The Muppets, $3.4M
11. The Descendants, $3.3M

PTA:

1. Mission: Impossible, $30,588
2. Tinker Tailer Soldier Spy, $28,250
3. Carnage, $17,140
4. The Artist, $16,882
5. Sherlock Holmes, $10,807


And Sherlock drops even more! Problem is even though it won't hit $200m now, it's price in the leagues was so good in the first place that it will prove to be a decent pick where the money saved choosing something such as Tintin and another $6 movie would still only be comparable to Sherlock's gross. Surprisingly The Sitter held firm for an extra Top 5 point too. Carnage wasn't very impressive PTA wise, glad I avoided it in every slate, just too crowded at the moment. MI4 looks a stellar pick though, glad I grabbed it on most slates.

[Shrykespeare]

Weekend estimates:

Top 10:
5 points - Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows, $40M
4 points - Alving & the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked, $23.5M
3 points - Mission: Impossible Ghost Protocol, $13M
2 points - New Year's Eve, $7.4M
1 point - The Sitter, $4.4M
Twilight: Breaking Dawn Pt 1, $4.3M
Young Adult, $3.65M
Hugo, $3.62M
Arthur Christmas, $3.60M
The Muppets, $3.4M
The Descendants, $3.3M

PTA (Oct/Nov):
5 points - Mission: Impossible Ghost Protocol
4 points - Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
3 points - Carnage
2 points - The Artist
1 point - Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows

PTA (Dec):
5 points - Mission: Impossible Ghost Protocol
4 points - Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
3 points - Carnage
2 points - Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows
1 point - Alvin & the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked

Cook County managed a PTA of only $1,620.

[Chienfantome]

And Carnage could even finish 4th in PTA when final numbers arrive...

[Shrykespeare]

Turns out you were right, Chien.


Weekend estimates:

Top 10:
5 points - Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows, $39.6M
4 points - Alving & the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked, $23.2M
3 points - Mission: Impossible Ghost Protocol, $13.4M
2 points - New Year's Eve, $7.3M
1 point - The Sitter, $4.6M
Twilight: Breaking Dawn Pt 1, $4.2M
Hugo, $3.7M
Arthur Christmas, $3.6M
The Muppets, $3.5M
Young Adult, $3.4M
The Descendants, $3.3M

PTA (Oct/Nov):
5 points - Mission: Impossible Ghost Protocol
4 points - Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
3 points - The Artist
2 points - Carnage
1 point - Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows

PTA (Dec):
5 points - Mission: Impossible Ghost Protocol
4 points - Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
3 points - Carnage
2 points - Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows
1 point - Alvin & the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked

[Chienfantome]

And 3 more PTA points for the Artist then. Which makes it what, 14 points now ? I'm curious to see how it'll fare when it expands.