SPEARE'S TIPS - THE FILMS OF 12/16/11

[Shrykespeare]

Well, this past weekend was supposed to be the beginning of an upswing at the Box Office, but it turned out to be just another dead weekend. Romantic comedy New Year’s Eve proved to be a completely unworthy “sequel” to Valentine’s Day, scrimping together $13 million but still taking first place due to a lack of competition. The other wide-release film to debut, The Sitter, took second with a paltry $9.8 million of its own. Things were much more pleasant on the PTA front, as limited-release films Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, Young Adult and We Need to Talk About Kevin all made very impressive debuts in the few theaters that showcased them.

We’re only three weeks away from crowning our Super League champions, and only four weeks away from starting it all over again. If you are reading this and have not registered, please do so immediately. If you have friends or co-workers that might be interested, tell them! I would love to make 2012’s field the largest ever, and that can’t happed without your help!

It was only two years ago that Robert Downey Jr., whose career resurgence after numerous stints in rehab has been nothing short of miraculous, rode his rocket-powered Iron Man persona into a completely different genre: a dark mystery-drama, where he played the most famous literary detective of all time, in Sherlock Holmes. This well-placed film very nearly topped Avatar (which was only in its second week) over Christmas weekend in 2009, pulling in $62 million on its way to $209 million overall. The bad news: it was never able to QUITE overtake James Cameron’s cinematic monster, finishing at #2 for three straight weeks. However, the good news is, there is no 800-pound gorilla waiting in the opposite corner to take on Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows this time. With all of the November movies fading out of theaters, this film is definitely the biggest dog in this particular hunt.

Director Guy Ritchie, who had his first major success with the original Holmes, is back again to helm the sequel, which returns Downey to the titular role of the brilliant but flawed sleuth, as well as Jude Law in the role of Holmes’ intrepid colleague, Dr. John Watson. It has long been established, way back when Sir Arthur Conan Doyle penned the stories originally, that if there was one person that was Holmes’ intellectual equal, it was Professor James Moriarty, the major difference between them being that Moriarty used his gifts for evil. Though the character was only seen in the shadows in the first time, he is front-and-center here (and played by actor Jared Harris).

The story: the Crown Prince of Austria has been found dead, and all evidence points to suicide… but Holmes thinks otherwise. With the help of his friend Watson, his older brother Mycroft (Stephen Fry) and a gypsy fortune-teller named Sim (played by Noomi Rapace, the Swedish star of the original The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo films, who is making her American-film debut) who just may be the mysterious assassin’s next target, Holmes begins an investigation to prevent a catastrophe that could have dire ramifications for all of Europe if not averted. Rachel McAdams and Eddie Marsan reprise their roles as Irene Adler and Inspector Lestrade, though I would wager their parts are significantly smaller than before.

With no blue-skinned aliens vying for supremacy this time around, look for A Game of Shadows to open to huge numbers: say, $65 million, on its way to eleven Top 5 points, three PTA, a Rating in the mid-7’s and $210 million overall, which is very comprable to the original’s numbers and allows for a slight sequel slump. In the December-February leagues, A Game of Shadows is the most expensive property, running $26 in Ultimate leagues and $27 in Box Office. Most of its competition will come next week, where a boatload of potentially-big films will be debuting over Christmas holiday. Regardless, I fully expect this film to be the highest-grossing film of December, and likely the last film to eclipse $200 until next May.

Coincidentally, there was another film that debuted two years ago on Christmas weekend, the exact same weekend that Sherlock Holmes debuted. That film was comedy-musical Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakuel, and that film pounded out $48 million of its own that weekend, en route to $219 million overall (just barely beating the numbers of the original Alvin film, which managed $44/$217 in 2007). Two years later, the third chapter in the series hits theaters, entitled Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked.

Who’d’ve thought that two movies about animated chipmunks, who act like out-of-control human teenagers and sing and dance to the latest hits in high-pitched, squeaky voices could manage over half a billion dollars in the U.S. alone ($800 million worldwide)? Certainly not me. Was a third film in the series really necessary? Probably not… but any sequel that outgrosses its predecessor is certainly not going to be the final one, so you can bet that Warner Bros. is going to milk this particular cash cow until it stops mooing.

I won’t describe what is laughingly called a plot, because the film is doubtless just going to be 87 minutes of Alvin (Justin Long), Simon (Matthew Gubler) and Theodore (Jesse McCartney), along with their female counterparts, the Chipettes (Amy Poehler, Anna Faris and Christina Applegate), running amok and causing trouble for their hapless owner, Dave (Jason Lee). This time out, after causing a series of mishaps on a luxurious cruise ship, that the gang finds themselves awash on a deserted island, where they will sing and dance for our amusement while they await rescue. Really, what more do you need to know?

Do I expect Chipwrecked to outdo The Squeakuel, as far as numbers go? In a word, no. I firmly believe that this series’ “jump the shark” moment has arrived, and sequel fatigue will start to set in when Chipwrecked’s numbers start to roll in. The numbers won’t be horrible, they just won’t be as good as before. Say, $32 million in its first three days, on its way to $130 million, eight Top 5 points and maybe a couple of PTA. As for the Rating? It will be bad. Like, in the 4.0 range. For that reason, I would probably only take it in Box Office, where it will run you $24. It’s only $21 in Ultimate, but going up against Sherlock Holmes, it will ultimately play second fiddle, and that’s not something you really want on your slates.

Last spring, controversial director Roman Polanski’s film The Ghost Writer turned into a modest hit, pounding out 13 PTA points and a respectable overall take of $15 million in theaters. Building on that success, Polanski’s latest, a black comedy entitled Carnage, will be debuting this Friday in five locatoins, before expanding to several dozen in January.

Carnage centers on two sets of parents, who decide to meet after their sons are involved in a schoolyard brawl. But what starts out as a polite discussion about child-rearing soon escalates into verbal warfare, with all four parents revealing their true colors. And the actors/actresses playing these four parents? Oscar-caliber talents all, with Jodie Foster (The Accused) and John C. Reilly (Chicago) and Kate Winslet (The Reader) and Christophe Waltz (Inglourious Basterds) on the other.

December is the season for Oscar-bait movies, and Carnage seems like it fits that particular bill. And at a price tag of $6 in Ultimate, I would highly recommend it, not just because it’s a hit with critics so far (80% on 24/30 reviews) but with viewers as well (7.9 on IMDb with 3,000 votes). I’m not sure it will break out at the box office like The Ghost Writer did, but even so, I’d be cautious about spending $4 on it in Box Office. I would also think about whether you believe Carnage has the potential to top the films I mentioned in the end of the first paragraph of this column, which will all be in their second week (minus Young Adult, which will be expanding to 1,000 theaters).

The final film this week is one that I talked about a month ago, so I’m just going to cut-and-paste what I said from that column, with one or two tweaks:

Cook County ($2 Ult, $1 BO) – After two years on a shelf, little-known Hannover House will be distributing this drama into an unknown number of theaters this Friday. It centers on seventeen-year-old Abe (Bandslam’s Ryan Donowho), who is trying to kick his addiction to meth and protect his young niece from his abusive uncle Bump. (Straw Dogs’ Anson Mount). When Abe’s father (Xander Berkeley) returns from prison, he and Abe must find a way to deal with the minefield that is the lifestyle created around them by crystal meth and Bump.

There’s not a lot I can tell you about Cook County beyond that. It has a so-so Rating on IMDb right now (6.9), but with only 122 votes in the can, it could change quite a bit when it’s released. It’s worth noting that this is the ONLY title left in the December Ultimate leagues with a $2 price tag. So, if you are dead set on the films you already have on your roster, and you only have $2 to spend, this is your last option, because everything else from here on out in the December-February leagues are $3 or more.


My predictions for the weekend of December 16-18, 2011:

1. Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows – $65 million
2. Alvin & the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked – $32 million
3. New Year’s Eve – $8 million
4. Arthur Christmas – $6 million
5. Young Adult (wide expansion) - $6 million
6. The Sitter – $5 million
7. The Muppets – $4 million
8. Hugo – $4 million
9. The Descendants – $4 million

Well, that will do it for me for another week. Next week, it’s the last big hurrah of the year, as eight noteworthy films debut, at various intervals, that will take us through the Christmas holiday. On Wednesday: Mission: Impossible Ghost Protocol, the latest hypercharged action film starring Tom Cruise; The Adventures of Tintin, a stop-motion animated film based on the popular European comic book character; and The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo, the latest outing from director David Fincher and a remake of the popular Swedish film of the same name. On Friday: We Bought a Zoo, the latest film from director Cameron Crowe and starring Matt Damon and Scarlett Johansson; and In the Land of Blood and Honey, a Bosnian war drama directed by actress Angelina Jolie. On Sunday (Christmas Day): Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, a 9/11 drama starring Tom Hanks and Sandra Bullock; War Horse, a WWII war drama from director Stephen Spielberg; and The Darkest Hour, a sci-fi horror film starring Emile Hirsch and Rachael Taylor.

Celebrities with milestone (div. by 10) birthdays this week:

Krysten Ritter (What Happens in Vegas, She’s Out of My League) (30 on 12/16)

Later!

[Buscemi]

1. Sherlock Holmes 2 $80 million (I firmly believe this could break Avatar's December opening record)
2. Alvin and the Chipmunks 3 $28 million
3. Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol $11 million
4. New Year's Eve $9 million
5. Breaking Dawn Part I $5 million
6. Hugo $5 million
7. Arthur Christmas $5 million
8. The Descendants $5 million
9. Young Adult $4.5 million
10. The Sitter $4 million

[numbersix]

Yeah, Sherlock 1 was really well liked and made a lot of money, so there's no reason that this film will do any worse. And unlike Iron Man 2 the intial word is that Sherlock 2 is as good if not better. $80 might be a bit too high, but I could see it beating the first film's OW.

I'm really not sure the logic of series fatigue works for Alvin. It's not like the people who go see it are discerning film assessors. And considering how well films like The Smurfs performed this year, there's no reason why this will do any worse (the only factor I see having an impact is the 2 "family" films coming out next week, but as we've discussed I'm not sure how much that will affect a film designed for younger children).

Young Adult should open to 6mil or so. Up in the Air went wide to almost 2000 theatres a few weeks after a limited release, and still managed a PTA of over $5000. Given this is Week 2 for Young Adult (and subtracting the less enthusiastic reviews and not-as-good star power) I tihnk Young Adult will make it into the Top 5 easily enough.

Carnage should kick ass in PTA (though Tinker Tailor could beat it, depending on how it expands), though in the long term it could get lost against so many blockbusters and prestige films. It doesn't help that the critics awards announced so far haven't really been touting this film. Cook County is DOA. PTA order this week should be Carnage, Tinker Tailor, MI4, Holmes 2, We Need to Talk About Kevin.

1. Sherlock Holmes 2 $68 million
2. Alvin and the Chipmunks 3 $40 million
3. New Year's Eve $7 million
4. Young Adult $6 million
5. Arthur Christmas $5 million

[englishozzy]

Funny that everyone was writing off Guy Ritchie before this franchise came out and now look. I believe Game of Shadows will blow away the competition this week with the chipmunks being another high profile casualty of 2011.

1. Sherlock Holmes: Games of Shadows - $75 million
2. Alvin and the Chipmunks 3 - $30 million
3. New Year's Eve - $8 million
4. The Muppets - $6 million
5. Breaking Dawn Part 1 - $5 million

...also why has Busc got MI4 as his prediction for 3rd position??

[numbersix]

It's being sneaked in 400 theatres this weekend. He's assuming a very high PTA which is quite possible.

[Buscemi]

It's IMAX and giant screens (non-IMAX) playing the film (two theatres here are getting it) There will be about five shows a day and with IMAX and giant screen surcharges ($4 for IMAX, $1 for giant screens here), it will rake in some dough.

Also, it should get a big Tuesday bump. Regular theatres are having 8:00 pm shows that night in addition to IMAX/giant screen shows.

[Shrykespeare]

Theater counts:

Alvin & the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked - 3,723
Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows - 3,703
Mission: Impossible Ghost Protocol - 400
Carnage - 5
Cook County - 5

Young Adult - expands to 986


Estimates for next week:

Mission: Impossible Ghost Protocol - 3,400
The Adventures of Tintin - 3,000
We Bought a Zoo - 3,000
The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo - 2,800
The Darkest Hour - 2,200
In the Land of Blood and Honey - 3
War Horse - N/A
Albert Nobbs - N/A

And The Artist and My Week With Marilyn will expand some more.

[Chienfantome]

Is Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy adding many theaters this weekend or just a few ?

[Buscemi]

It adds 12 this week before a Christmas Day wide expansion.

[Chienfantome]

Thanks for the info Boosch !

[silversurfer19]

Early reports from deadline suggest a continuing downward trend for sequels:

1. Sherlock Holmes: Game Of Shadows - Friday $16M, Estimated Weekend $42.4M
2. Alvin And The Chipmunks: Chipwrecked - Friday $7.1M, Estimated Weekend $25.8M
3. Mission Impossible: Ghost Protocol 3D - Friday $4.6M, Estimated Weekend $12.1M
4. New Year’s Eve - Friday $2.4M, Estimated Weekend $7.7M
5. Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 1 - Friday $1.3M, Estimated Weekend $4.2M
6. The Sitter - Friday $1.3M, Estimated Weekend $3.9M
7. Arthur Christmas 3D - Friday $856K, Estimated Weekend $3.7M
8. Hugo 3D - Friday $945K, Estimated Weekend $3.6M
9. The Muppets - Friday $903K, Estimated Weekend $3.6M
10. Young Adult - Friday $1.2K, Estimated Weekend $3.6M

Although I kept Alvin in the Super Leagues which now seems a mistake, thankfully I swapped it for MI:4 in most other leagues, which seems to be the only new movie to exceed expectations, with an excellent opening. Huge drop from Sherlock though, I had downgraded my estimates for it to mid 50s, but early 40s!

[numbersix]

Very disappointing. Guess people are waiting for the holidays to go to the movies.

[Geezer]

Mission Impossible is going to be MASSIVE! Did I put it on every slate? You bet I did. 12 million from 400 theaters? That's unheard of.

[undeadmonkey]

actually $30,000 PTA isn't that huge, it's quite decent but remember it includes the IMAX upcharge. i bet the average will be lower when its wide.

[Buscemi]

I'm amazed that Sherlock Holmes 2 is having such disappointing numbers. The reviews were on par with the first, the Cinemascore was an A- and word of mouth has been excellent (many, myself included, like it more than the first film) but it's looking at an opening much below the first.

I'm thinking that the problem laid in the advertising. I haven't seen that much promotion for it in the past month. In the summer and early fall, there was a decent marketing push (the teaser before Harry Potter got a great reaction). Then for some reason, the marketing seemed to stop (as Warner Bros. became more interested in For Your Consideration campaigns). You know something isn't right when Warner Bros. is promoting the long-dead J. Edgar more than the sequel to a huge moneymaker.