SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 11/23/11-11/25/11

[Ron Burgundy]

Hmmm, now i think i know why i havent done well this year, translates to time spent researching and guessing what is good initially. Someone explain Bridesmaids to me.

The Departed though, was a very good movie, the original was ok, but not quite as refined. I was Let the Right One In, but the remake was far too son, and i still dont want to see it, besides didnt it to unwell at the BO.

the Girl with the Dragon tatoo is wholly different, besides being a dark film, it has a loyal fan base on the novels, plus a big star in Daniel Craig and rising upcomer, who already appeared in the 'dark' piece, The Social Network. Add to that the time of year its released against virtually no similar type competiton, hmm, im already thinking i wish the super league went until Feb.

[Buscemi]

Craig has been box office poison outside of the Bond movies (The Invasion, The Golden Compass, Defiance, Dream House, all flops*) and not many remember Mara from The Social Network (audiences are more familiar with her in the remake of A Nightmare on Elm Street, where she got terrible reviews). And the original film was rather successful domestically ($10 million in the US and similar success in Canada, where it opened a year earlier).

Let Me In failed more due to a lack of marketing than anything (Relativity did such a poor job marketing it that one was probably unaware that it was ever released). It performed better on DVD due to the positive reviews.

And there is competition in Sherlock Holmes (which has Noomi Rapace, the original Lisabeth) and Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol (which has the original Mikael). They are also safer bets due to the PG-13 ratings (The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo has been confirmed to be a hard R) and lighter, more crowd-pleasing content.

At this point, the Boxoffice.com prediction of 16/90 makes the most sense to me. Box Office Mojo's $165 million prediction would mean it would have to pass The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (a much lighter film with a PG-13 rating) to be Fincher's biggest film. For comparison to another dark Christmas film, Black Swan just barely reached $100 million (and had excellent word-of-mouth). To reach the lofty goal of $165 million, it would need to have the absolute best word of mouth of Christmas. I just can't see it happening.

* - I didn't include Cowboys and Aliens due to its $100 million gross but that film did lose money for Universal due to a budget of over $150 million.

[Chienfantome]

You didn't like "Infernal Affairs" Ron ??!!

[undeadmonkey]

And the original film was rather successful domestically ($10 million in the US and similar success in Canada, where it opened a year earlier).

not that this matters much, but aren't canada's totals figured into US totals

[Shrykespeare]

No, they're not, as far as I know.

[Buscemi]

Not always. If the film has a different distributor and was released at a different time, they are not included.

Case in point: Barney's Version. In the US (released by Sony), the film grossed $4.4 million. In Canada (released by E1), the film grossed another $3.1 million. However, Box Office Mojo lists just the American gross while The Numbers (a Canadian site) lists both grosses.

In Canada, Alliance distributed The Millennium Trilogy a year before Music Box distributed them in the US. Therefore, the American grosses did not include the Canadian numbers. In Canada, The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo grossed $2.7 million while the American total was $10 million. Box Office Mojo did not report the Canadian total but The Numbers did.

[Buscemi]

The opening weekend estimate for The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo is 2,500 theatres. Looks like Sony is playing conservative with it.

[silversurfer19]

I guess they knew they had no chance of competing with Sherlock, Alvin, Tintin and Mission Impossible during those first couple of weekends so have gone for a slower platform release. Either that or Sony have been paying too close attention to Boussh...

[numbersix]

DL's estimates for Thursday are up. Very interesting. Drops all round (which is normal, although I'm not liking the drop The Muppets has made) except for one major surprise: Hugo. It was up from Wednesday by a significant amount and could make 14m for the 5 days if it makes the kiddie bounce most family films do on Saturday. This could mean great legs.

Also worth noting is the excellent hold for The Descendants, which is set to make 4-5m for the 3-day weekend. That would result in a 11-12K PTA, meaning it should beat My Week with Marilyn (looking at 7-8K PTA), and all the wide releases. So chances are it will earn 3 PTA points this week (after The Artist and A Dangerous Method) for a total of 8. Not bad so far, and it could provide a solid BO return too. Glad I picked it.

[silversurfer19]

BOM has updated those early estimates and it looks a little more favorable for The Muppets. It dropped only 10% on its second day to $5.9m, so I reckon it should probably still be on course for a mid 40s 5 Day Weekend. Also a decent hold for Breaking Dawn again, upping it's early estimate to $7.8m, it will have no problem winning the weekend. I hope for the sake of my slate Arthur Christmas can bounce back a little when the kids start seeing it, as it's down in 7th at the moment on $1.85m, though as you say Hugo did have a huge jump, up 40% to $2.3m. Don't know why it had such a big jump. Numbers as follows:

Breaking Dawn - 7.8m
The Muppets - 5.9m
Hugo - 2.3m
Happy Feet 2 - 2.0m
Immortals - 1.9m
Jack And Jill - 1.9m
Arthur Christmas - 1.85m


I imagine Marilyn will probably be heading for close to $2m over the weekend when it has it's bump in theatres over the weekend, which is a decent if unspectacular start. I'm hoping it can build on that over the next month. And glad I have The Descendents on quite a few slates too. With that and The Artist I should do pretty well for PTA.

[Buscemi]

As I said, Hugo will appeal more to adults in early weeks. It's mostly a cinephile's movie than a family film.

[Shrykespeare]

Friday Estimates:

Twilight: Breaking Dawn Pt 1, $16.9M
The Muppets, $12.3M
Happy Feet Two, $5.1M
Arthur Christmas, $4.55M
Hugo, $4.53
Jack and Jill, $3.8M
Immortals, $3.5M
Puss in Boots, $2.9M
J. Edgar, $2.0M
Harold & Kumar, $630K

My Week With Marilyn, $607K
The Artist, $75K (in 4 theaters)


Well, it seems the Artist is the clear favorite to win the PTA this weekend, though we still don't know how A Dangerous Method is doing.

[Buscemi]

$10,000 PTA for Hugo this week?

[numbersix]

Early estimate for A Dangerous Method is 60K for the Friday, meaning it's behind The Artist

[Chienfantome]

Way to go The Artist !