SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 9/16/11

[W]

Yep. Moneyball has a chance to be this year's The Social Network, just less so financially.

[Ron Burgundy]

Im counting on Moneyball falling flat, cause i went with Warrior and Drive for most, man i suck at this game, SS, please hand me your crown of failure

[undeadmonkey]

The Lion King's weekend estimate is up to $25M now, who saw that coming? Who wants to bet that 'the limited time only' will be extended. Contagion is at $12M-$13M and Drive is at $10M-$11M, The latter is receiving an awful cinema score.

link> http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/b ... ing-236736

[Shrykespeare]

Friday estimates:

The Lion King 3D - $8.8M (2,300 theaters)
Contagion, $4.6M
Drive, $4.0M (2,886 theaters)
Straw Dogs, $2.0M (2,408 theaters)
The Help, $1.9M
I Don't Know How She Does It, $1.6M (2,476 theaters)
Warrior, $897K
The Debt, $865K
Planet of the Apes, $750K
Colombiana, $725K


Other Theater Counts:

Restless - 5
My Afternoons With Margueritte - 2
The Mill and the Cross - 1


Estimates for Next Week:

Dolpin Tale (Warner Bros.) - 3,200+
Abduction (Lionsgate) - 3,000
Moneyball (Sony/Columbia) - 2,900+
Killer Elite (Open Road) - 2,700+
Thunder Soul (Roadside Attractions) - 35
Machine Gun Preacher (Relativity) - 4

[Buscemi]

I fail to see why people are having such a hard time following Drive. Were they really expecting something pedestrian and by the numbers like the Fast and the Furious movies?

It's a lot like the early work of Michael Mann. Audiences have no problem understanding his movies so why can't they understand a movie like Drive?

[Ron Burgundy]

Drive im thinking is a different kettle of fish, to Fast and the Furious and also Michael Manns films altogether

First of all, its low budget,
secondly, its released in September
thirdly, the director is from another country and he made Bronson, good movie, but how much money did that make?
fourth, do u remember Valhalla Rising, i havet seen it but it looked bad, worth 2 bucks in the old FM currency, the director for drive made that too.
fifth, Ryan Gosling got to pick the director after he was cast in the lead role, i think the script did have a big star attached and he dropped out, Goslings first impression was not good, but he the clicked with the director after some sort of happening
and lastly, i picked it
oh did i forget to say that its R rated

shit

but, it does have Ryan Gosling, a possible future oscar winner, and like i said Bronsan was pretty good though i never finished it.

[Buscemi]

But there are people complaining that it's boring or that nothing happens or that it's too pretentious or some other strange complaint. Not every action film has to be like Transformers or Fast and Furious. They can have dialogue and make the characters actually have some sense into them. Most of these viewers have probably never seen something like Thief or Hard Boiled or The Killer or The Good, The Bad and The Ugly. Movies that do not conform to big, loud and dumb and manage to be better than most of the action or thriller genres.

[Ron Burgundy]

ok, i can probably agree with that, as i said Bronson isnt actually a bad movie

But in general and i think ive sait this b4, people who go to pay for a shit movie like resident evil 4 or suckerpunch just dont know a thing about movies, or they are curious, or they are a fan of the actor, the trailer, or just really really bored. I cant explain it better than every one of us already knows, as we all play the game...

The thing is, it doesnt matter, its about Opinion at the end of the day but some people can tell better whether a movie will make money or not

geez for example

im just trying to say that Drive will flop
and that the good the bad and the ugly should have made more money

[Buscemi]

But a movie that got excellent reviews and a 15-minute standing ovation at Cannes shouldn't get people to make up stupid reasons on why it needed to be more like "Generic Action Movie" or "By-The-Numbers Thriller".

[Geezer]

I'm certainly not ready to call it a failure yet, and the fact that it gets Top 5 points taken away by an unavailable film is a crock of shit, but I can tell you what seriously hurt its opening weekend: LACK OF ADVERTISING. It's the one thing that concerned me, and it turns out to have made a difference.

[Ron Burgundy]

I think ill like it. But u know, the people that saw it and complained are just the dudes the saw the ad and said, oh dude, theres like cars in that movie, we gotta go see it!

if it got a 15 min standing ovation then yeah, will it be good, probably

critics and fans alike have panned films at festivals before yet the film may have gone on to be bona fida great movie, fight club for example.

Again, its all about opinion. Just some people are straight up wrong

late note, or they never saw the trailer

[Buscemi]

Geezer, the same company released Insidious with not much marketing and it made $54 million. Drive has had a similar ad campaign to that.

[Geezer]

This is true, and Drive still could get to 54 million if it has good legs. Insidious only opened to 13 million, if Drive gets 11 we're not talking about a big difference. They are very comparable.

[Ron Burgundy]

Insidious was a great movie, 7.5-10

i expect drive to be slightly more disappointing as Insidious opened in April and Drive opens in the dumping ground sector 2

[Shrykespeare]

So was The Help, kind of.

And Rule #1 about Box Office trends: there ARE no rules.