SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 8/26/11

[Shrykespeare]

My goodness. I mean, we knew the late-August films would be weak, and they have been, but for every one of them to be a limp noodle compared to the fast-approaching-blockbuster-status hit The Help? Really? At the rate it's going, The Help may challenge Bridesmaids for the surprise hit of the entire year. It took #1 this weekend, with Rise of the Planet of the Apes at #2. Spy Kids: All the Time in the World and Conan the Barbarian were able to squeeze in at #3 and #4, respectively, but the big ugly box office bouncer left other debuts Fright Night and One Day stranded behind the velvet rope.

There was a drought like this early in the year, when it seemed that not one film had the gumption to break out, and, I regret to say, things are unlikely to improve in the next few weeks. I’m sure those that chose The Help are absolutely tickled pink, as it now seems likely that that film will take the box office crown again this weekend, because the three wide-release films debuting this week don’t look to pack any more punch than last weekend’s films did.

Still, it’s my job to talk about those films, so here we go. I suppose if there is ANY film likely to scare enough business to topple The Help in its third week, it would have to be Don’t Be Afraid of the Dark, based solely on the recognizability of Guillermo Del Toro, who co-wrote the film as well as co-producing it. Del Toro, I’m sure you all remember, was in the director’s chair for popular films such as both Hellboy films as well as the critically-lauded Pan’s Labyrinth. If you’re wondering, it is first-timer Troy Nixey in the big chair for this film, who has previously made his living as a comic book artist.

Don’t Be Afraid centers on a ten-year-old girl named Sally Hirst (Just Go With It’s Bailee Madison), who has just moved into a new house with her father Alex (Guy Pearce) and his girlfriend Kim (Katie Holmes). Alex's relationship with Sally has become distant since the death of her mother. Kim makes an effort to befriend her, but to no avail. One day while exploring the basement, Sally comes across a sealed fireplace, and strange voices beg her to open it. Though she is unable to open it completely, she is able to effect the release of small goblin-like creatures, who proceed to terrorize the trio. After doing some research, Alex realizes that the son of a previous owner disappeared, and that ancient creatures known to kidnap children in order to replenish their numbers may be responsible, and have now set their sights on Sally.

First, the good news: Don’t Be Afraid of the Dark, as you might expect with anything that Del Toro’s name is attached to, has gotten decent feedback so far. It also has a terrific Rating (7.3 with over 800 votes), which is unlikely to change that much, so there’s that. The bad news: comparatively good reviews didn’t help Final Destination 5 from avoiding the weakest OW in that franchise’s history, and the even-better reviews didn’t help Fright Night AT ALL. And with many more horror flicks, horror-thrillers, and all-around scary dramas coming in the next month, can Don’t Be Afraid really break out? I think not.

I may be wrong (heck, I’ve been wrong about just about everything this month), but I don't believe that Don’t Be Afraid of the Dark will be able to top The Help, especially given its meager 2,400-theater platform. I’ll predict $12 million, on its way to five Top 5 points and $27 million overall. I like Del Toro’s work, and Don’t Be Afraid may be the shiniest penny in this string of horror movies, but… it’s still just a penny. Even though it’s relatively cheap ($8 and $9 in Ult/BO), I’d still pass.

Up next is Colombiana, an action movie from TriStar and the first-ever leading role for Zoe Saldana, who has had notable supporting roles in blockbusters such as Star Trek, Avatar and the very first Pirates of the Caribbean film. Directing is French action-helmer Olivier Megaton (Transporter 3), and Colombiana is also benefiting from the inclusion of Luc Besson (the man who directed the outstanding Leon and The Fifth Element), who co-wrote the script and is acting as executive producer here.

The plot, such as it is, is pretty rote: a young woman named Cataleya Restrepo (Saldana), as a child, witnesses her parents’ brutal murder in Bogota, Colombia, grows up to be a stone-cold assassin under the tutelage of her uncle Emilio (Cliff Curtis). Working as a hitman by day, Cataleya spends her off-time searching for the man responsible for orphaning her. French-American actor Michael Vartan (Alias) co-stars.

Despite her presence in the aforementioned blockbusters, Saldana is not exactly a household name, and it certainly wasn’t enough to make a difference in gritty shoot-em-ups like Takers or The Losers. Not that its hard to buy an action film with a female lead carrying the load, but unless your name is Angelina Jolie, it’s truly tough to imagine any film with that description breaking out in theaters.

Colombiana is set to bow in 2,500 theaters this Friday. I think it will manage $11 million in its first three days, on its way to three Top 5 points, a middling Rating around 6.0 and $23 million. It may be the last pure-action film of the summer, but I doubt it will matter. Its price tag of $11 in Ultimate and $12 in Box Office, on the other hand, does matter. Colombiana will not give you what you want.

It’s refreshing to see that there will be something lighthearted in theaters, and director Jesse Peretz (The Ex) and the Weinstein Company bring us Our Idiot Brother this weekend (in 2,000 theaters). The film stars well-known comedic actor Paul Rudd as Ned, a dimwitted but well-meaning idealist who was just released from prison for dealing marijuana. Having nowhere else to go, he returns to his family, consisting of sisters Miranda (Elizabeth Banks), Natalie (Zooey Deschanel) and Liz (Emily Mortimer). Needless to say, Ned’s presence turns all of his sisters’ lives upside-down, but, from what is sounds like, it could be exactly what all of them need, as each one of them has issues in their lives that they seem to be refusing to deal with.

Considering that the only two comedies coming out between now and late October are the awful-looking Bucky Larson: Born to Be a Star and the awfuller-looking I Don’t Know How She Does It, one would think that Our Idiot Brother might be quirky enough and funny enough to do what The Help is doing, even in a limited capacity. And if it does, that’s great. I just have a hard time picturing it happening. Still, I’ll predict a $10 million OW based on its cast, on its way to two Top 5 points, a passable Rating (currently at 6.8 with over 400 votes), and $23 million. This is truly a tough time of year for movies… so much coming out, and none of it is that great.

And now, a little bit about the four limited-release films coming out this week:

Higher Ground ($4 Ult, $2 BO) – This film represents the directorial debut of actress Vera Farmiga (Source Code), who also stars as Corinne, a woman who “struggles to keep her faith and spirituality in a religiously tight-knit community”. The film also stars Donna Murphy, John Hawkes and Bill Irwin.

Scheduled to debut in an unspecific number of locations in New York and Los Angeles, Higher Ground has gotten decent reviews since its premiere at Sundance this year (it currently stands at 4/5 positive on RT). However, its current Rating is an abysmal 4.2 on IMDb, and even though that only reflects just over 100 votes, I would still be very cautious about putting it on your slate. Even a theatrical release probably won’t see its Rating climb by more than a point, and after Salvation Boulevard failed to capture any PTA points at all, I would imagine that a film as overtly religious as Higher Ground would get any either.

Brighton Rock ($3 Ult, $2 BO) – English author Graham Greene wrote many bestselling books between 1929 and 1966, and some of them were made into well-made, classic films, such as The Third Man, The End of the Affair and The Quiet American. The story of Brighton Rock was also made into a 1947 film starring Richard Attenborough, and now it has been remade, and will be shown in 11 locations this Friday.

Though the original novel and film were set in the 1930’s, this version has been modified to take place in 1964, the time when “the Mods and the Rockers were rioting across the South Coast (of Britain)”. Sam Riley stars as Pinkie Brown, a desperate youth who wants to claw his way up through the ranks of organized crime. When an innocent waitress named Rose (Andrea Riseborough) witnesses Pinkie commit a murder, Pinkie plans to seduce her to ensure her silence, so it’s up to her of Rose’s friends (played by veteran English actors Helen Mirren and John Hurt) to save her from Pinkie’s deviant designs. Brighton Rock is actually the directorial debut of Rowan Joffe, son of acclaimed director Roland Joffe.

Brighton Rock has already debuted at a couple of film festivals (Toronto and London), but reviews have been decidedly mixed. Its RT score isn’t that impressive (22/39 positive) and its Rating is even less so (5.7 with over 1,100 votes), so I would be wary of putting this on your slate.

Buzzkill ($3 Ult, $1 BO) – This little film from Indican pictures and director Steven Kampmann (whose only other directorial project, Stealing Home, came 13 years ago), a story about a struggling writer named Ray Wyatt (Daniel Raymont) who decides to quit his current life, and take the manuscript he has just finished to sell it to Hollywood. Along the way, however, he gains fame in a totally unexpected context, as he has his car and manuscript stolen by a notorious serial murderer known as the “Karaoke Killer” (Darrell Hammond).

Set to debut in one lone theater in New York this Friday, Buzzkill looks to be one of those “out-there” films (like Rubber not long ago) that could go either way in terms of PTA potential. It’s got a good Rating (7.1, but with only 73 votes), so for $3, you could seemingly do a lot worse.

Circumstance ($2 Ult, $1 BO) (Just in case the film is made “available” again) – This Iranian drama was the winner of the Audience Award at Sundance this year. It is an Iranian drama that will be debuting in six theaters this Friday. The film centers on a pair of siblings, sister Atafeh (Nikohl Boosheri) brother Mehran (Reza Sixo Safai), who grew up in a privileged Tehran family filled with music, art and culture. Atafeh and her best friend Shireen rebel by romping through the underground scene of the Iranian capital, while Mehran, a once-promising classical musician, having returned from rehab after a long history of drug use, has turned his obsessions into something far more dangerous.

That’s why I got from the synopsis; however, the trailer would seem to indicate that they film is mostly about Atafeh and Shireen, and the strong bond of friendship that they share cultivates a spark of forbidden love between them, in a culture that… frowns (to say the least) on such dalliances. I find myself hoping that this film becomes available again, because of all the limited-release films this week (heck, ALL of them), Circumstance is the only one that I think has potential to deliver good stats. Yes, the Rating isn’t terrific (6.0 after 276 votes), but despite that, I would recommend this film. For $2, it certainly might be worth the gamble.


My predictions for the weekend of August 26-28, 2011:

1. The Help - $14 million
2. Don’t Be Afraid of the Dark - $12 million
3. Colombiana - $11 million
4. Our Idiot Brother - $10 million
5. Rise of the Planet of the Apes - $9 million

Well, that will do it for me for another week. Next week, we officially begin the fall season with five films that will be the first to carry with them a September release date, including: The Debt, a drama starring Helen Mirren and Sam Worthington; Apollo 18, a horror-thriller about the “classified” final mission to the moon; Shark Night, a 3D horror flick about man-eating sharks terrorizing teens on spring break; as well as limited-release features Gainsbourg: A Heroic Life and Love Crime.

Celebrities with milestone (div. by 10) birthdays this week:

Billy Ray Cyrus (C/W singer, father of Miley) (50 on 8/25)
Jennifer Coolidge (American Pie, Legally Blonde) (50 on 8/28)
Kyle Massey (That’s So Raven, Dancing With the Stars) (20 on 8/28)

Later!

[BanksIsDaFuture]

Really, if it wasn't for Rise of The Planet of The Apes and The Help, this might be the worst August ever.

I personally am marginally interested in Colombiana and Our Idiot Brother, but I'll wait til some reviews come out until I check them out. Even then, it'll have to be a matinee or something.

Luckily, September looks better than usual, between Contagion, Warrior, Drive, Moneyball, 50/50, and The Lion King re-release in 3D.

[Geezer]

I thought the same thing, Banks. For some reason, August has been awful, and September looks a lot more appealing. Wonder what that will do to the Box Office for September.

[undeadmonkey]

i partly agree. I've only been interested in Rise of the Apes in august, but i think september looks just as awful, i only want to see Moneyball (and The Lion King, if it gets released around here.)

[Geezer]

Definitely want to see Moneyball, Contagion and the Lion King re-release. Very interested in both Warrior and Apollo 18, depending on the reviews. Better than a usual September.

[Buscemi]

I think this week's movies will all do better than expected. Our Idiot Brother has been getting good reviews and the marketing has been everywhere, Don't Be Afraid of the Dark had great trailer reaction (and FilmDistrict's Insidious grossed over $50 million) and Colombiana has the writers of Taken and looks like a female version of Leon.

As for September, I'm mostly interested in Drive and Moneyball.

[W]

I can tell you that I will 100% see Moneyball. I can't say that about anything else in August or September but Apes.

I'll probably end up seeing 30 Minutes or Less, Apollo 18, The Help, and Our Idiot Brother too.

[silversurfer19]

How long do movies usually stay in theatres in the US on average? I really want to see Drive and Contagion but I'm not sure when they will be released in NZ though I will be over in Florida around the start of November. Any chance it would still be there? Or even better on 2nd run?

They're pretty much the only September movies I have any interest in though.

[Buscemi]

Usually about 3-4 weeks (unless it's a legs film or a big tentpole film). Two weeks is the minimum for most movies (with a few exceptions). If you go to one of the big cities in Florida, you could probably catch them in a few evening shows splitting with a family film.

[silversurfer19]

Okay, we'll be in Orlando so we'll keep an eye out for them. Will definitely be watching The Rum Diary though, NZ doesn't have a release date for it yet and really want to see what Bruce Robinson can do with Johnny Depp and Hunter S. Thompson.

[Buscemi]

Disney World has a 24 screen AMC in Pleasure Island. They should have both films still running (in fact, Contagion will probably play through Halloween at some places).

I remember being there back in 2000 and wanting to see the DLP version of Dinosaur. My mother and sister weren't interested and it would be seven years before I finally saw a movie digitally projected.

[Shrykespeare]

Well, brand new "big" films generally get the theaters with the highest seating capacity, while other new films get slightly smaller theaters. Once a movie is in its third week, assuming it's still drawing a crowd, it'll be moved to an even smaller theater but still be shown 4-6 times a day. Finally, once a film is over month old or not drawing that well any more, they'll double them up into the smallest theaters and show each one only 1-2 times a da.

[silversurfer19]

Thanks for the info, guys. Sounds promising but I'll wait and see. Be great to see at least a couple of those movies earlier than I anticipated. Sorry to hijack your thread btw, Shryke (I tend to do that a lot...), you can get back on topic now.

I don't expect anything from this weekend at all, definitely a miss for me.

[Shrykespeare]

No problemo, surfer.

Hey, I just thought of a new word that we can add to our vernacular. Maybe if we use it in other places, it'll catch on, and in ten years, it'll be in Webster's.

The word is "threadjacking".

What do you think?

I just threadjacked my own thread...

[undeadmonkey]

The Help held extremely well last weekend, should hold well this week too. no idea what the new films will do, look like flops to me, all of em. I wonder if The Help could stay on top the following week as well.