SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 8/19/11

[Shrykespeare]

The Rise of the Planet of the Apes’ took the box office title for the second straight week by copping a cool $27 million over the weekend, just a hair ahead of a very game The Help, which surprised many by flourishing despite its lengthy running-time and female-centric demographic. Apes also crossed the $100 million mark, and so did The Smurfs. Meanwhile, Final Destination 5 opened with the weakest numbers yet for the franchise, with only $18 million (despite better reviews than expected), and 30 Minutes or Less also underwhelmed as well, pulling in $13 million for a fifth-place finish.

I’ll let you know right now, this week is going to be extremely tough to call, perhaps even more so than the Cowboys vs. Aliens/Smurfs photo-finish from two weeks ago. Because not only do we have to take into account the 40-50% drops for Rise of the Planet of the Apes and The Help, but also the debuts of three new films, all of which have nearly identical release platforms, marketing platforms and expectations. Barring a surprising breakout by one or more of these films, this weekend’s Top 5 is going to be a logjam.

Robert Rodriguez is an interesting case study. For the last six years, he has seemed to effortlessly vacillate between gritty, grimy, gory adult fare to harmless, schmaltzy kids’ movies. Consider: he went from Sin City (2005) to The Adventures of Sharkboy and Lavagirl (2005), from Planet Terror (2007) to Shorts (2009), and finally from last year’s Machete to the film I'm talking about today. Going back even further, he was also responsible for grown-up movies such as Desperado, From Dusk Till Dawn and Once Upon a Time in Mexico, as well as, of course, all three Spy Kids movies.

Well, I daresay that the 50% of Rodriguez’ filmography that his five kids will be able to attend will probably be there for the premiere of his latest film, Spy Kids: All the Time in the World. Like most of his films, this fourth installment features many actors with whom he has worked before, including Jessica Alba (three times), Antonio Banderas (seven times), Daryl Sabara (five times) and Danny Trejo (eight times).

Of course, it’s been eight years since the last Spy Kids installment, and now that the original “kids” (Sabara and Alexa Vega) are all grown up now, it’s time to hand the torch over to a new generation, specifically twin siblings Rebecca (Rowan Blanchard) and Cecil (Mason Cook), who are just getting used to their new step-mom, Marissa (Alba), who just recently wed their spy-hunting reporter father Wilbur Wilson (Joel McHale). They soon discover, however, that Marissa is a retired spy herself, and not long after she is called back into action, the world of espionage comes right to their doorstep, in the form of evil mastermind the Timekeeper (Jeremy Piven), who needs to obtain a sapphire necklace given to Rebecca by Marissa to further his evil plans. So the kids, along with their baby sister and their robotic dog (Ricky Gervais), must spring into 4D action to foil said plans. (In case you were wondering, Sabara and Vega do have small roles. I’m not sure in what capacity Banderas and Trejo will appear, since they weren’t in the trailer.)

This film’s potential is tough to gauge. The target demographic is obviously younger than the age that the kids who enjoyed the first three Spy Kids movies are likely to be now, so let’s hope that, for the sake of those twelve-and-under who see this, it’s a film that can stand on its own. Set to debut in roughly 3,000 theaters, including many 3D (the fourth “D” in 4D apparently involves the sense of smell… what’s all that about?) locations.

Even though school has started in many parts of the country already, I’ll give All the Time in the World the benefit of the doubt, not only because the three previous installments averaged $100 million at the box offices, but because this is VERY LAST pure kids’ movie until November. Balancing those factors out with franchise fatigue and the eight-year gap between chapters, I’ll predict an opening weekend of $18 million, on its way to eight or nine Top 5 points, three PTA and $75 million. For $12 in the August Ultimate Leagues, that’s not bad, but please take into account that the User Rating will do you no favors at all (the previous three Spy Kids films had Ratings of 5.0, 5.2 and 4.0, respectively, so be warned). You might be better off taking the film in Box Office only, where it will run you $13. Still, this prospect is very hit-and-miss, so if you have already struck out by taking The Change-Up (like I did), you may want to wait for something else.

Remakes are, of course, nothing new, and it seems that while new versions of classic 80’s horror franchises have been popping up a lot lately, they are not limited strictly to that genre. Case in point: this weekend, we have remakes of not one, but TWO 80’s films. The first of these is Fright Night, a reprise of the 1985 horror film of the same name. In that film, a teenaged horror buff named Charlie (William Ragsdale) becomes convinced that his next-door neighbor Jerry (Chris Sarandon) is a vampire, and, with the help of his girlfriend Amy (Amanda Bearse) and an eccentric vampire hunter Peter Vincent (the late, great Roddy McDowell), he sets to exposing and destroying the menace that has invaded his neighborhood.

Judging from the synopsis, the 2011 version looks to be an almost verbatim remake. Even the characters’ names are exactly the same. Young up-and-comer Anton Yelchin (Star Trek) steps in as Charlie, English actress Imogen Poots (Jane Eyre) plays Amy, David Tennant (who played Doctor Who for a few seasons) takes over as Peter, and the role of Jerry the vampire goes to Colin Farrell (Horrible Bosses). Interesting… though the film takes place in America, and the characters are mostly American (I think), all of the main cast are either English, Irish, Russian or Australian (Toni Collette plays Charlie’s mother Jane). The only recognizable American face in the movie is Christopher Mintz-Plasse (McLovin’!!), who plays Charlie’s friend Ed.

There has been plenty of advertising for Fright Night, and it’s been, what, three months since the last vampire flick (Priest)? We’re still three months away from the next Twilight film, so the question remains… is Fright Night actually cool and hip enough to bring in an audience? Well, given that, for a very welcome change, it seems that this film is actually going for horror rather than cheesy action or cheesy romance, I’ll hope that that’s the case. For the very reasonable price of $10 (in both leagues), I’ll predict a $17 million opening, five Top 5 points, a Rating around 6.5 and $43 million overall. Actually, come to think of it, that doesn’t sound like a good pick at all, does it?

When most people hear the name Conan the Barbarian, they immediately think of the 1982 film, the film that featured a much-younger Arnold Schwarzenegger in his very first leading role, a mere two years before a little film called The Terminator would catapult him into international stardom. The original Conan was only a mild success in theaters, earning $38 million. Of course, what most people don’t remember is that the character of Conan has actually been around since 1932, when he was introduced in a series of magazine comics.

Unlike Fright Night, it would appear that the 2011 version of Conan the Barbarian is less of a line-by-line rehash and more of a “reimagining”, rather like the Clash of the Titans remake that happened last year. Filling Arnold’s enormous sandals is Hawaiian actor Jason Momoa (Stargate: Atlantis) as Conan, a young warrior who, after his father is murdered and his village destroyed, must find a way to survive on his own. When he happens upon the warlord responsible for his tribe’s destruction, a despot named Khalar Zym (Avatar’s Stephen Lang), Conan must battle hordes of henchmen, many CGI monsters and a witch named Marique (Rose McGowan, who once dated Robert Rodriguez, ironically) in order to exact his revenge. Ron Perlman (Hellboy) has a cameo as Corin, Conan’s doomed dad.

Well, like Arnold was at the time, Jason Momoa is an unknown, so the only people flocking to see this version of Conan will likely be those who fondly remember Arnold’s version. Because other than the recognizability of the character, this version (directed by Marcus Nispel, who tried to reboot Friday the 13th two years ago) doesn’t seem to have much else going for it. The swords-and-sandals action genre tends to yield few actual hits, and I’d feel safer betting on the success over November’s Immortals than I would with Conan the Barbarian.

For $12 in Ultimate ($14 in Box Office), I only predict a $15 million OW, three Top 5, and an average User Rating. And because I just can’t resist, I’ll also predict a total output of $38 million, an exact match of the original version. Obviously, none of these stats would make it worth its price tag.

If a film is going to be released wide, it will more than likely be included in the game. However, some films, let’s face it, just don’t stand a chance when it comes to game purposes. I know that’s not how the movie biz works, but that’s how the game works: some films will thrive on the point system that’s been created, and some won’t. And One Day, the fourth wide-release movie coming out this weekend, won’t. This film, a romantic drama from Focus Features and director Lone Scherfig (An Education) will be released in only 1,600 theaters, which pretty much puts it out of range for Top 5 points and PTA. Its current Rating (5.6 with 200 votes) doesn’t seem to be helpful either. Yes, it’s only $6 in Ultimate (and only $4 in Box Office), but even at that bargain basement price, you shouldn’t take this film.

However, for those of you thinking of WATCHING the film, it is the story of Emma (Anne Hathaway) and Dexter (Jim Sturgess), who become friends they day they graduate from the University of Edinburgh in 1988, despite their different personalities… Emma is a young idealist who dreams of making the world a better place, and Dexter is a wealthy rake who sees the world as his personal playground. Though there is a spark of romance, the pair agree to remain friends.

The film then proceeds to show how their lives progress over the next two decades by showing only one day per year (the anniversary of their meeting), and the many rendezvous they have during that time as they drift in and out of relationships, careers and the like. And in case you were wondering, the film is based on the bestselling book of the same name by author David Nicholls. If One Day is the kind of movie that tickles your fancy, by all means, see it and enjoy it. Just don’t pick it. I figure $5 OW/$15 overall at most.

I wish I could give you better news on the limited-release front, but I really can’t. The only one this week is Amigo, a historical drama from veteran director John Sayles (Eight Men Out). Taking place in the Philippines during the Philippine-American war of 1900 – an occupation eerily similar to Vietnam decades later – the film centers on the character of Rafael (Joel Torre), the leader of a small Filipino district called San Isidro, who must find a way to maintain the peace during a troubled time. This is made more difficult by the fact that his own brother is the leader of the local insurrection, a fact that doesn’t escape the American lieutenant (Chris Cooper) sent to protect the populace from just that. Garret Dillahunt (Winter’s Bone) and DJ Qualls also co-star.

Amigo is set to open in twelve theaters this weekend, and given its substandard reviews (2/5 positive on RT) and mediocre Rating (6.4 with 100 votes), I wouldn’t take this film for its Rating or PTA potential. It’s only $3 in Ultimate, but even that seems like a waste of money. There’ll be other, better picks for the same amount later on. Just be patient.


My predictions for the weekend of August 12-14, 2011:

1. Spy Kids: All the Time in the World - $18 million
2. Fright Night - $17 million
3. Conan the Barbarian - $15 million
4. Rise of the Planet of the Apes - $14 million
5. The Help - $13 million

Well, that will do it for me for another week. Next week, we plow on through August with seven new films, three wide and four limited, set to debut on August 26th: Don't Be Afraid of the Dark, a horror film from the mind of Guillermo Del Toro; Colombiana, a gritty action flick starring Zoe Saldana; Our Idiot Brother, a comedy featuring Paul Rudd and Zooey Deschanel; as well as limited release features Higher Ground, Brighton Rock, Buzzkill and Circumstance.

Celebrities with milestone (div. by 10) birthdays this week:

Evanna Lynch (Luna Lovegood in the Harry Potter films) (20 on 8/16)
Larry B. Scott (Revenge of the Nerds) (50 on 8/17)
Ben Barnes (Prince Caspian in the Narnia films) (20 on 8/20)
Jonathan Ke Quan (Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom, The Goonies) (40 on 8/20)

It’s also going to be my birthday (42) on 8/17, so feel free to e-mail or PM me your well-wishes. And if you’re feeling REALLY generous, I’ll send you a list of my sizes and preferences. (Grin.)

Later!

[ROBDude]

Yeah. The Spy Kids films were huge successes at the box office. Let's see if All the Time in the World breaks the record for the top.

[Chienfantome]

In France, Conan The Barbarian has been marketed all over the place. The trailer has been seen everywhere, the posters are set on all the walls of Paris... I think it will do better business here than in the States, strangely.

Too bad "One Day" is given such a release, it could have been interesting has a platform release.

ANd jonathan Ke Quan is 40 ?! Damn !

[ROBDude]

I think Conan and Spy Kids may top together in the box office, Chienfantome.

[numbersix]

All of this week's major releases look underwhelming. Spy Kids 4 looks like it's coming too late (although the lack of August kids films may give it a boost). Fright Night looks tired and dull, and Conan has no major stars. Actually, the only film I could see overperforming is One Day, just because the book was so popular.

And yeah, avoid Amigo.

1. Conan the Barbarian - $17 million
2. Spy Kids: All the Time in the World - $16 million
3. Rise of the Planet of the Apes - $13 million
4. The Help - $13 million
5. Fright Night - $12 million

One Day - $8 million

[ROBDude]

Um, I think Fright Night will be put in place of #3 instead of #5.

[BanksIsDaFuture]

I kind of think Fright Night will come out on top, at least as far as new releases go. I've been seeing tons of promo on MTV and ESPN, and it looks like they're targeting teens by making fun of Twilight. Not sure if it'll work, but I can see at least a nice sized OW followed by huge drops.

[ROBDude]

It might, along with conan the barbarian, beat out spy kids for the top.

[transformers2]

I think all of the new releases should do about 12-14 million. I say Spy Kids comes out on top, but not by much.

[Buscemi]

I kind of think Fright Night will come out on top, at least as far as new releases go. I've been seeing tons of promo on MTV and ESPN, and it looks like they're targeting teens by making fun of Twilight. Not sure if it'll work, but I can see at least a nice sized OW followed by huge drops.

It's just Disturbia with an R rating. Also, test screenings went horribly and the horror fans are angry about it. I think Spy Kids and Conan will beat it.

[ROBDude]

I kind of think Fright Night will come out on top, at least as far as new releases go. I've been seeing tons of promo on MTV and ESPN, and it looks like they're targeting teens by making fun of Twilight. Not sure if it'll work, but I can see at least a nice sized OW followed by huge drops.

It's just Disturbia with an R rating. Also, test screenings went horribly and the horror fans are angry about it. I think Spy Kids and Conan will beat it.

I'm on your side.

[Buscemi]

I'd rather not.

[numbersix]

Current tracking pretty much agrees with Tranny

[undeadmonkey]

i agree with tranny too. i'd be surprised if any of the new releases make more than $15M this weekend. I bet The Help and Apes have a chance be 1 and 2, respectively.

[Buscemi]

From what I've read, The Help made most of its money in markets where Tyler Perry movies make their money (Atlanta, Memphis and Jackson were reportedly the biggest markets in terms of PTA) and his movies never hold well. I'll say $12-13 million for the week.