SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 7/29/11

[Shrykespeare]

Well, surprise, surprise. Not only has superhero fatigue apparently NOT set in, but it would also appear that the final superhero film of the summer may turn out to be the best one yet. Captain America: The First Avenger pounded out over $65 million this weekend, far ahead of the second week of Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2, which dropped a whopping 72%. However, on the bright side for Potter fans, it will easily cruise by the $300 million mark this week, and will indeed vie for the year’s #1 film with Transformers: Dark of the Moon, which currently stands at $325 million. Kudos also to those players who chose either Sarah’s Key or Another Earth, which came in 1-2 in the PTA race this past weekend.

The final Friday in July represents the last gasp of full-throttle power in the summer season: in many parts of the country, kids will be returning to school very soon, and the quality of films coming out over the span of August will gradually diminish into we hit the lull of early autumn. If August and September represent the dessert and coffee portion of the meal that is the summer lineup, then Friday, July 29th represents the last juicy bite of entrée that the summer has to offer.

And what better way to end the fireworks than with a rollicking action film directed by Jon Favreau, the man behind both Iron Man movies and boasting a screenplay co-written by J.J. Abrams’ brain-trust (Roberto Orci, Alex Kurtzman, Damon Lindelof)? And if that isn’t enough to tantalize you, how about the fact that it stars Daniel Craig, Harrison Ford and Olivia Wilde? (Wow… James Bond, Indiana Jones and Thirteen all in one film?! How can it miss!?)

Okay, I’ll dial it back for a moment. You probably won’t get two more disparate genres than sci-fi and western, and it’s been rare that anyone’s been ballsy enough to try to combine them. But that is one quality that Favreau seems to have, and lo, Cowboys & Aliens will be gracing over 3,700 theaters starting Friday.

Taking place in 1873 Arizona, a loner named Jake Lonergan (Craig, doing his best Eastwood) awakens in the desert with no memory of who he is and with a strange metal bracelet around his wrist. He soon learns that he a criminal, wanted by many parties including Col. Dolarhyde (Ford), who rules the town of Absolution with an iron fist. However, when alien spaceships proceed to attack the small town, the pair must team up to defeat them. Sam Rockwell, Paul Dano, Keith Carradine and Clancy Brown co-star.

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Pt 2 broke the franchise record with a titanic opening two weeks ago. Captain America surprised everyone with a mammoth opening of its own. Can Cowboys & Aliens continue the trend? I certainly think it can. Since most of the ads make a point of having “from the director of Iron Man” where everyone can see it, I think it’s safe to say that while C&A won’t come anywhere near Iron Man’s $300 million total, it should be able to scratch out $125 million. It will certainly do no less than $100 million. I think it will top $40 million in its OW, which should be good enough for #1.

Cowboys & Aliens will run you $21 in both July leagues. For that, I think you can expect eight or nine Top 5 points, a couple of PTA and a very decent Rating, somewhere in the mid-to-high 7’s. You may have a tough time fitting it on your slate if you’ve already picked Transformers or Harry Potter, but if you haven’t, give serious consideration to picking this film. It’s all downhill from here, folks.

If you were like me, you grew up in the 1980’s, and if you did, you knew about a TV cartoon called The Smurfs. Taking place in medieval times, The Smurfs was about a tribe of tiny (about 4” tall) little blue elf-like forest-dwelling creatures, living a quiet life while trying to fend off attack from vicious enemies like the evil wizard Gargamel. The show ran from 1981-1989, and cemented its place in animated history.

Of course, with Hollywood doing live-action films of every cartoon character and series ever created these days, it was only a matter of time before we saw The Smurfs movie, wasn’t it? And that might have been okay, had they kept the setting where it was… but no, nothing is sacred, is it? Director Raja Gosnell (Beverly Hills Chihuahua and both Scooby-Doo films) has decided to introduce a plot device where a half-dozen Smurfs, fleeing from Gargamel (Hank Azaria) enter a magical portal in the forest, only to emerge… in modern-day New York. Sigh.

Before you can say, “Where the Smurf are we”, Clumsy (Anton Yelchin), Brainy (Fred Armisen), Gutsy (Alan Cumming), Smurfette (Katy Perry), and, of course, Papa Smurf (Jonathan Winters), are dodging taxicabs, dogs, you name it. They befriend a married couple (Neil Patrick Harris and Jayma Mays), and together they must find a way back to their own time, while foiling the schemes of Gargamel, who apparently followed them to the Big Apple.

With Cars 2 waning and Winnie the Pooh barely making a blip, this looks to be the last big kids’ movie of the summer, and likely the last one that parents will want to take their small children to see at least until Spy Kids 4: All the Time in the World opens on August 19th. It will run you $15 (in both league), but I think that the competition is way too strong to justify that price tag. If Harry Potter takes another big dive in its third week, The Smurfs (which is opening in over 3,200 theaters, including many 3D locations) has a shot at the #3 spot this weekend. However, you are looking at four Top 5 points tops, maybe one or two PTA, and a below-average Rating. It could hang on for good bucks over the long haul, as kids’ movies often do, so it’s probably a much smarter pick in Box Office than it is in Ultimate.

Last up among the wide-release films this week is Crazy, Stupid, Love, a comedy from Warner Bros. that will be bowing in nearly 3,000 theaters. Director Glenn Ficarra and John Requa (I Love You Phillip Morris) have assembled an All-Star cast for this film, which has gotten terrific early reviews at RT so far (8/9 positive).

Steve Carell stars as Cal Weaver, who is seemingly living the good life – good house, great job, great kids, etc. – until, out of the blue, his wife Emily (Julianne Moore) tells him he wants a divorce. Of course, being suddenly single after decades of marriage makes it hard to reenter “the game”, and Cal is way out of practice, sticking out like a poorly-dressed sore thumb. Enter Jacob Palmer (Ryan Gosling), a good-looking player who takes Cal under his wing to help him appear more attractive to hot women. While this is going on, Cal’s 13-year-old son Robbie (Jonah Bobo) is harboring a crush on his 17-year-old babysitter Jessica (Analeigh Tipton), who herself is attracted to Cal. Ooh, awkward! Anyway, the supporting cast also includes Marisa Tomei, Emma Stone, Kevin Bacon (it’s BACON!!!) and, singer Josh Groban, who is making his big-screen acting debut.

If Crazy, Stupid, Love were being released in fall or spring, I would probably recommend it highly, based on the cast, the positive reviews and its price tag ($14 Ultimate, $13 Box Office). However, on THIS particular weekend, I just can’t. There are too many heavy hitters still swinging for the fences, and I think the best that CSL can do to compete is a sharp double down the left-field line. (For those of you not from the U.S., please forgive my sports metaphors.) It might pull in one Top 5 point, and that is just not enough. Same goes for Box Office, because between this, last week’s Friends With Benefits and next week’s The Change-Up, the adult-comedy genre is pretty saturated at the moment. Sorry. It might scratch out $50 million, but that’s pushing it.

And now, a little bit about this weekend’s four limited-release films:

The Guard ($4 Ult) – This dark comedy from director John Michael McDonagh, which has been showcased at numerous film festivals already (including Sundance and Tribeca), comes to American shores courtesy of Sony Classics. It will be debuting on an unknown number of screens in New York and Los Angeles this Friday. It stars well-known Irish actor Brendan Gleeson as a rather unorthodox small-town police sergeant named Gerry Boyle. When it is learned that a gang of drug dealers are planning on landing half a billion dollars of cocaine off the west coast of Ireland, Gerry is forced to team up with straight-laced FBI Agent Wendell Everett (Don Cheadle) to help foil the dealers.

Having read a couple of the nine (out of nine) positive reviews on RT, one might think that an Oscar nom is in store for Gleeson, which would be awesome. They praise the obvious chemistry between Gleeson and Cheadle, as well as the superb acting of both (as well as the ubiquitous Mark Strong, who plays a philosophical hitman). Don’t know about you, but having now seen the trailer, I suddenly want to see this film.

Question is, will the general public? Well, Kill the Irishman did quite well on the PTA front, and I see no reason that The Guard can’t either. It certainly won’t hurt you in User Rating, which stands at 7.8 with over 500 votes. Despite this being a crowded weekend for limited-release films, I say it’s worth the gamble.

The Devil’s Double ($4 Ult) – From Lionsgate and director Lee Tamahori (Die Another Day) comes this action drama based on true events involving former Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein and his son Uday. Dominic Cooper (Captain America) plays Latif, an Iraqi national who is chosen by Uday Hussein (also Cooper) to be his body double. And with the enormous risks involved, Latif is also given a taste of the many rewards: wealth, women (who’s your Bagh-daddy?), and a seat at the table of Saddam (Philip Quast) himself. Of course, the good life can be a little tainted when your savior/employer is the son of a bats***t crazy psychopath, and the apple doesn’t fall far from the tree…

Buscemi calls this film a “Middle Eastern Scarface”, and that seems pretty apt. I am intrigued by the story, and emboldened by the use of Depeche Mode in the trailer. However, cool or not, will audiences lap it up? Set to bow in five theaters, I have a hard time believing that a film set in the Middle East, a setting that usually spells doom, will ultimately prove Double’s downfall. Doesn’t mean I won’t see it, however.

The Future ($3 Ult) – Miranda July (You and Me and Everyone We Know) is both in front of and behind the camera for this release from Roadside Attractions, which will be shown in one lone theater starting Friday. July plays Sophie, whose relationship with her husband Jason (Hamish Linklater) is on the rocks, so the decide (?) to adopt a stray cat, believing that it will die soon. However, they are told that they can’t take the injured cat home for thirty days, and from that point on, the couple’s perspective on life changes radically (??).

Well, from the trailer, it looks like the kind of movie that indie films are stereotyped as, films that are brainstormed during yoga sessions. But the critics seem to love it (7/8 positive on RT), so what do I know? The Rating isn’t that good (6.4 with just over 200 votes), and that one-theater platform worries me, so I would not take this film. Just too “out there” for me.

Point Blank ($2 Ult) – No, this is not a remake of the 1967 classic film with Lee Marvin. Rather, it is a French thriller directed by Fred Cavayé (who wrote the screenplay The Next Three Days was based on). It stars Gilles Lellouche as Samuel, a male nurse who foils an assassination attempt on a comatose man named Hugo (Roschdy Zem) one evening. However, the next day, his pregnant wife (Elena Anaya) is kidnapped, and Samuel is given only three hours to sneak Hugo out of the hospital and bring him to the kidnappers, or his wife will die.

It is well-documented that French films are great sources of PTA, and Point Blank sounds like the kind of film that could surprise in that regard. Slated for release in seven theaters, it has a passable Rating (6.7 with over 800 votes), and it has been well-received by critics (20/23 positive on RT). For $2, I doubt you’re going to find much better.


My predictions for the weekend of July 29-31, 2011:

1. Cowboys & Aliens - $41 million
2. Captain America: The First Avenger – $31 million
3. The Smurfs - $24 million
4. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 – $19 million
5. Crazy, Stupid, Love – $17 million
6. Friends With Benefits – $10 million

Well, that will do it for me for another week. Next week, the dog days of August begin, with five films set to debut on the weekend of Augsut 5th: Rise of the Planet of the Apes, a prequel of sorts to the Tim Burton disaster starring James Franco; The Change-Up, an adult comedy starring Ryan Reynolds and Jason Bateman; as well as limited-release films Mysteries of Lisbon, Bellflower and Magic Trip.

Celebrities with milestone (div. by 10) birthdays this week:

Regin Philbin (Live With Regis and Kelly) (80 on 7/25)
Tom Green (The Tom Green Show) (40 on 7/30)
Laurence Fishburne (The Matrix, next up in Contagion) (50 on 7/30)
Paul Anka (singer, wrote Sinatra's "My Way") (70 on 7/30)

Later!

[Buscemi]

I'm probably going to call it a dogfight between Captain America and The Smurfs. Cowboys and Aliens has been getting awful trailer reaction (people are actually laughing at the trailer) and I think that $40 million is too high. $30 million maybe, but $40 million is out of the question.

The Smurfs is being underestimated at $20 million and if Beverly Hills Chihuahua could open to $30 million in October, this could do maybe $32-34 million. And Anton Yelchin is in this? He must have gotten a nice payday.

Crazy Stupid Love is tracking at $14 million right now, which I can agree with. The trailers look a little too similar to Dan in Real Life from 2007 and Emma Stone's appearance feels like a stunt casting similar to Emily Blunt in that movie (she appeared in just one scene but was billed higher than Amy Ryan).

My predictions:

1. Captain America $35 million
2. The Smurfs $33 million
3. Cowboys and Aliens $30 million
4. Harry Potter $23 million
5. Crazy Stupid Love $14 million
-- Friends With Benefits $9 million

[numbersix]

I think there's some under-estimating of Cowboys Vs Aliens. Sure, the trailer is borderline camp, but I just think it'll appeal to a younger audience.

As for The Smurfs, while Bev Hills Chihuahua did indeed open to 30mil, Yogi Bear opened to only 16, so it's not a sure-fire hit just yet. Especially with Harry Potter and Cars still running.

CSL looks a bit dead in the water.

As for PTA, it's a tough call but I guess it's between The Guard and Devil's Double will be the big winners (unless DD gets awful reviews). I'd miss The Future although Point Blank has a shot.

1. Cowboys and Aliens $45 million
2. Captain America $29 million
3. Harry Potter $24 million
4. The Smurfs $22 million
5. Crazy Stupid Love $16 m

[Buscemi]

The Future opens in just one theatre and the director's last film got $30,000 PTA on opening weekend. There are people (myself included) who have waited years to see how Miranda July follows up Me and You and Everyone We Know. I think it's a great pick.

[BanksIsDaFuture]

The Smurfs will crash and burn. It's reminding me a lot of Marmaduke.

[Buscemi]

To counterpoint, The Smurfs has something that Marmaduke didn't: a plot.

[W]

I'd say that Marmaduke and The Smurfs are different. The Smurfs is a fairly well known property that people from the 80's/early 90's are familiar with. Marmaduke was known by people that read newspapers, or more of an older skewed crowd. You can see how a kid's film based on something unknown to kids and (most likely) their parents really wouldn't work.

That's not to say The Smurfs won't fail. It looks awful and if I were to compare it to a film in the last few years, it'd be Yogi Bear.

[undeadmonkey]

yet yogi bear still made $100M

[Brockster]

I wish they would have made The Smurfs purely animated...I may have seen it then

[Buscemi]

I wish they would have made The Smurfs purely animated...I may have seen it then

Back when Paramount had the rights, it was going to be entirely animated. And Ben Affleck was attached to play a role.

[Shrykespeare]

Ben Affleck? Really? As what? Unfulfilled Potential Smurf?

Okay, that was harsh...

[Buscemi]

He's proved himself well as a director.

[transformers2]

I think The Smurfs will do pretty well. Not amazing, but I can see a 20-25 mil opening this weekend. Cowboys and Aliens is kind of a crapshoot. I think it should do around 40 mil this weekend, but it has been getting a lot shit (mainly due to it's title). It really could go either way.

[Chienfantome]

Cowboys & Aliens will kick the Smurfs'ass on opening weekend.
ANd I'm like you Boosch, I've been waiting for another Miranda July's film for years, can't wait to see this one !

[undeadmonkey]

deadline is saying $40M for Cowboys vs Aliens and $30M for Smurfs, but these are very early guesstimates