SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 7/8/11

[Shrykespeare]

The first six days in the release history of Transformers: Dark of the Moon generated over $180 million domestically and over $400 million worldwide. In a year that has featured an assembly line of failures and underachievers, Michael Bay’s oversized mechanized cash cows finally was able to deliver. It seems fairly certain at this point that Dark of the Moon will be the first film of 2011 to eclipse $300 million (something no film this year has even close to so far), and it has, for the third time, thrown down the gauntlet in front of the Harry Potter franchise, sneering at it and spitting out “I DARE you to do better”. Well, with the eighth and final installment in that storied franchise coming to an end, it should be a terrific battle. But that’s a story for my next column.

Comedies are notoriously tough to predict. Certainly no one would have thought that the two big comedy hits of the season would have been Bridesmaids and Bad Teacher, with the combination of Hanks and Roberts producing absolutely no buzz whatsoever. This makes predicting the potential of this Friday’s two major releases, which are both comedies, rather problematic. But neither one of this week’s comedies really drives in the same lane as either Bad Teacher (which was pure adult-centric raunch from beginning to end) or Larry Crowne (which was actually a romantic film with comedic elements, also aimed at adults).

Every now and then, a big-budget comedy comes along, usually a family-comedy romp, that features a very bankable comedic actor and either a bevy of recognizable names in the supporting cast or is an excuse for its studio to impress us with a myriad of special effects. Think of films like Dr. Doolittle, The Nutty Professor or either Night at the Museum film, and you get the idea.

Director Frank Coraci, who helmed perhaps the most effects-laden movie in Adam Sandler’s filmogrpahy (Click) and Happy Madison Productions are teaming up again to bring us Zookeeper, which stars former King of Queens star Kevin James in the leading role. The script, penned by Nick Bakay and Rock Reuben (both of whom have worked with James before), seems like a definite cross between the aforementioned Dr. Doolittle and Hitch (which also starred James, in pretty much the same kind of role).

James plays Griffin Keyes, an amiable but lonely guy who is the head zookeeper at the Franklin Park Zoo. He loves his job, but it’s not the kind of job that makes him a chick magnet, if you know what I mean. When a friend of his offers him a job selling luxury cars that could conceivably change all that, Griffin considers taking it. However, the animals under Griffin’s care, who adore him to the point that they couldn’t imagine anyone taking his place, decide to break their code of silence and reveal their biggest secret: namely, that they can talk. In perfect English. After getting over his initial shock, Griffin starts to take the animals’ advice about how to attract the girl of his dreams (Leslie Bibb) without changing jobs.

As one would expect in a movie like this, there are stars galore: the film also stars Rosario Dawson, Donnie Wahlberg and Ken Jeong (seriously, that guy is EVERYWHERE) in human roles, as well as the voice talents of Sylvester Stallone (as a lion), Nick Nolte (as a gorilla), Don Rickles (as a frog), Cher (as a lioness), Jon Favreau (as a bear), director Judd Apatow (as an elephant), and, of course, Adam Sandler himself (as a capuchin monkey).

Normally, I would not give this film a big chance to succeed, sandwiched as it is between what will likely be the two highest-grossing films of the year. But this is a completely different animal (heh) as those two films, and if any non-animated family comedy has a chance to make a dent this year, it’s probably Zookeper. Hell, if Paul Blart: Mall Cop, which made over $100 million in a January release, proved one thing, it’s that people can readily identify with the lovable shlubs that Kevin James tends to play on a regular basis.

Zookeeper will run you $18 in the July Ultimate leagues ($18 in Box Office). There are many comedies coming out in the next couple of months (including another this week, more on that in a sec), but of all of them, Zookeeper would look, on paper, to have the most potential. Not enough to top Transformers in its second week, but it should easily sew up #2 with an OW of about $36 million in over 3,300 theaters. I think it will be a better pick in Box Office, however: in the end, I can’t see it garnering more than eight Top 5 points, maybe three PTA, and a Rating that probably will be below 7.0. It could quite easily break $100 million, perhaps even $125 million, but beyond that would be pushing it. Depending on how you plan on spending your cash if you’ve already taken the “big two”, you should seriously consider taking Zookeeper.

Admit it: every one of you out there has, at some point, had a job where you had a boss or supervisor that you loathed so much you actually wanted him or her dead. (And if you haven’t… you will.) Well, Warner Bros. and director Seth Gordon (Four Christmases) will be bringing that fantasy to around 3,000 screens this Friday, in the form of Horrible Bosses, a dark comedy that also features a fairly impressive array of talent.

It centers around three friends: Nick (Jason Bateman), Dale (Charlie Day) and Kurt (Jason Sudeikis), who regularly get together and commiserate about how much better their lives would be if their respective employers were to tragically “bite it”. And, having watched the trailers, the audience would probably root for that to happen as well.

Nick’s executive boss, Dave (Kevin Spacey) paints Nick as an alcoholic to justify promoting himself instead. Dale’s dentist boss, Julia (Jennifer Aniston) is the poster girl for female sexual harassment, who is also not above blackmail and manipulation just for kicks. And Kurt’s manager, Bobby (Colin Farrell), is a weaselly cokehead who appears to get off on firing employees for terrible reasons (or, rather, having Kurt do it for him). In a desperate move to improve their lives, the three friends cook up a lamebrain plot to do away with their bosses, even hiring a consultant (Jamie Foxx) to help advise them on how to do it. Who wants to bet that things don’t go as planned?

Horrible Bosses does sound a little like the Farrelly Brothers latest failure, Hall Pass, substituting disgruntled employees for disgruntled marrieds, and murder for sexual freedom. Hopefully it will do better. I think it will, though probably not by that much. For $13 (in both leagues), I envision only four Top 5 points, maybe one or two PTA, an average Rating, and an $18 million OW en route to just shy of $60 million overall. I don’t think this is one David that has much chance to topple the Goliaths. Pass.

And now, a little bit about the four limited release films opening this week:

Rapt ($3 Ult, $1 BO) – This French-Belgian drama (from 2009) will be released on Wednesday into one theater. Directed by Lucas Belvaux, this film was nominated for four Cesar Awards (that’s like the French Oscars), including Best Picture. The story is a crime thriller based on the 1978 kidnapping of an executive named Stanislas Graff (played by Yvan Attal), who is captured and held for a ransom of 50 million euros. Brutalized and abused at the hands of his captors, Graff’s picture-perfect trophy wife and teenage daughters are left to figure out whether retrieving him is even worth it.

It’s really tempting to take Rapt, given that French films are often terrific sources of PTA. However, its Wednesday, not Friday, release gives me pause, as does the fact that it’s only being shown in one theater. It has a pretty good Rating (6.8 with over 400 votes), so I would only say Rapt is a worthy gamble if you really need a cheap film to fill out your roster.

Project Nim ($4 Ult, $2 BO) – Director James Marsh (Man on Wire) is behind the camera for this documentary from Roadside Attractions, which will be bowing in four theaters this Friday. It tells the story of a chimpanzee dubbed “Nim” that was the main subject of a study in animal communication at Columbia University in the 1970’s. From two weeks old, Nim was taught American Sign Language. The movie features interviews with many of the key personnel in the project, including its founder, Prof. Herbert Terrace, and Stephanie LaFarge, the person who initially took Nim into her home and began teaching him, just as she would a human child. And the results, though widely disputed, were quite shocking.

For $4, I think you could easily wind up with four or more PTA points. I don’t think Project Nim will pan out at all in Box Office, but it seems like the kind of film that could come out of the pack and surprise. I don’t think it will hold on for point in its second week, but it’s entirely possible. Oh, and lest I forget, the critics have adored this film so far (16/17 positive at RT), so there’s that.

Beats, Rhymes & Life: The Travels of a Tribe Called Quest ($3 Ult, $1 BO) – This is also a documentary, which will be debuting on select screens in New York and Los Angeles on Friday. Actor Michael Rapaport makes his big-screen debut in the big chair with this film, which chronicles the history of A Tribe Called Quest, one of the most commercially successful and iconic groups in the history of hip-hop music. Filming took place in 2008, as ardent fan Rapaport followed the group on their reunion tour, which played to sold-out houses across the country. The four members of the group open up about how the band got started, as well as how it ended. There are also interviews with plenty of other hip-hop artists, who credit the Tribe as the key influences in the genre.

I would love to endorse Beats as a great pick, but documentaries about musicians, no matter how influential, more often then not have to struggle to get any PTA points at all. Beats could very well end up with a few points, but probably not more than that. It’s been critically raved (5/5 positive at RT), and its been showcased at several film festivals (Tribeca, Sundance). Give it a serious look.

Ranchero ($3 Ult, 1 BO) – This film, which has been sitting on a shelf since 2008, is slipping quietly into two theaters this Friday. It tells the tale of Jesse (Roger Gutierrez), a cattle ranch worker who leaves home for the first time after the death of his parents, moving to Los Angeles to reunite with his childhood friend Tom (Brian Eric Johnson). Getting a job at a grocery store, he becomes friends with a co-worker named Lil’ Bit (Christina Woods). Unfortunately for the good-hearted amateur photographer, Lil Bit is in debt to a small-time hustler named Capone (Danny Trejo, yes, Danny Trejo), and Jesse must find a way to confront him without getting both of them killed.

It seems like a decent story, but it also seems like the kind of film that will come and go without a single blip. I really wouldn’t waste $3 on this unless you are playing Bankrupts. At least its long wait is over.


My predictions for the weekend of July 8-10, 2011:

1. Transformers: Dark of the Moon – $50 million
2. Zookeeper – $36 million
3. Horrible Bosses – $18 million
4. Cars 2 – $15 million
5. Bad Teacher – $8 million

Well, that will do it for me for another week. Next week, the summer season reaches its pinnacle, as the decade-long Harry Potter franchise reaches its spellbinding conclusion, in Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2. Also debuting next week is Winnie the Pooh, a hand-drawn animated Disney film recapturing the characters immortalized by A.A. Milne; as well as five limited release features: Salvation Boulevard, Snow Flower and the Secret Fan, Tabloid, Buzzkill and Life Above All.

Celebrities with milestone (div. by 10) birthdays this week:

Geoffrey Rush (Green Lantern, next up in The Eye of the Storm) (60 on 7/6)
Della Reese (Harlem Nights, Touched By an Angel) (80 on 7/6)
Nancy Reagan (former First Lady) (90 on 7/6)
Anjelica Huston (next up in 50/50 and The Big Year) (60 on 7/8)
Chris Cooper (The Town, next up in The Muppets) (60 on 7/9)

Later!




(sorry, couldn’t find a trailer in English)

[Buscemi]

My weekend predictions

1. Transformers 3 $37 million
2. Zookeeper $35 million
3. Horrible Bosses $24 million
4. Cars 2 $13 million
5. Larry Crowne $9 million
6. Bad Teacher $7 million

[numbersix]

Last tracking I saw had Horrible Bosses open in the high 20's, which was higher than Zookeeper! I'm not sure what to make of it. R-Rated comedies have been overperforming this summer, so will HB continue the trend? I'm gonna take a risk and say it won't do as well as Bridesmaids or Bad Teacher.

And as you said, Shryke, if Paul Blart can make 100 million, so can this. As for PTA, I'm thinking the reviews and director's profile for Project Nim should ensure it will win the weekend, T3, Zookeeper, and HB should all get points too, which means only one other films will get PTA points. I'm gonna say it's the Tribe Called Quest movie, but not sure how many points it will get.

1. Transformers 3 $45 million
2. Zookeeper $32 million
3. Horrible Bosses $20 million
4. Cars 2 $16 million
5. Bad Teacher $7 million

[Buscemi]

Horrible Bosses had better test screenings than Bridesmaids or Bad Teacher. Also, this one has male appeal that the other two lacked. However, this one also isn't as raunchy (or at least didn't highlight them as much).

And there is the problem with dark comedy not performing well.

[W]

I think Zookeeper gets good trailer reactions, especially with the gorilla. It just looks like a fun movie that would appeal to the mass audience. That said, I didn't pick it in anything, but I almost did.

[Buscemi]

Columbia had excellent test screenings with it (reportedly, it tested better than The Karate Kid last year) and the trailer brings the house down when I've seen it before movies (such as Super 8 and Mr. Popper's Penguins). And even I find the gorilla funny (whom I read was played by Kiefer Sutherland rather than Nick Nolte, but they have replaced Sutherland in post-production since the film has been finished for a while).

[Brockster]

Looks like most tracking is showing Horrible Bosses opening higher than Zookeeper.

I pulled the plug on Zookeeper for all of my slates...I never believed in it, but thought if Paul Blart could be successful, why not this one? But in end I'm going w/ my gut and dropping it.

[numbersix]

Yeah I'm starting to get worried about Zookeeper too. If Horrible Bosses does well then every film out next summer will be an R-Rated sex comedy

[Buscemi]

I think Zookeeper is being underestimated. Cars 2 is dropping quickly, Mr. Popper's Penguins has been a disappointment and Harry Potter doesn't appeal to everyone.

Also as I mentioned earlier, trailer reaction has been excellent and both adults and kids have responded well to it.

[Brockster]

Don't you think that if Mr. Popper's Penguins was a disappointment that Zookeeper will be too? I mean, they pretty much have similar premises...comedians and animals mixing it up for some laughs.

[Buscemi]

Mr. Popper's Penguins was a little different (it's based on a book and didn't feature talking animals) and didn't have much in the way of advertising (due to it being moved up from August and filming having only finished five months before release). Zookeeper is based on an original idea, has talking animals (voiced by names such as Sylvester Stallone and Adam Sandler) and has had much more time for promotion (it was completed in time for a Fall 2010 release but tested so well that it was pushed back to the summer) and trailers have been out since November.

Unlike Fox and Mr. Popper's Penguins, Columbia is extremely proud about Zookeeper (and possibly got it for a steal since it was a pickup from MGM).

[W]

Yeah, I agree. Zookeeper looks like a small hit, maybe $30-35 M opening, $110-130 M overall

[Brockster]

Horrible Bosses - 80% fresh on RT
Zookeeper - 9%

Paul Blart was 33% fresh for a point of reference

Edit: Zookeeper already has a 3.4 rating on imdb, Paul Blart had a 5.3

[W]

Wow. The trailer looks decent. I expected it to be between 30-50%.

And who'd have thought that two of the highest rated mainstream summer films would be Horrible Bosses and Bridesmaids (89%)?

[BanksIsDaFuture]

Well, I'm sure Horrible Bosses will come down some when general audiences get to see it...