SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 6/29/11, 7/1/11

[Shrykespeare]

A summer rife with sub-par performances continued unabated this past weekend, as even magical Pixar couldn’t avoid the sting of cinematic indifference that has been plaguing big-budget movies this whole year. Cars 2 probably won’t come close to the output that Toy Story 3 had one year ago, and with Green Lantern dropping a whopping 65%, it seems week after week brings bleak news. As of today, not one film from 2011 has broken $250 million (though The Hangover Part II will probably get there in a week or two).

However, it’s not ALL bad. Bad Teacher surprised everyone by topping $30 million in its first three days. And now that the calendar is turning toward July, where the REAL heavy hitters of summer lie in wait, a major windfall could be in the works for ticket counters. In fact, in only two days (Wednesday) comes the highly-anticipated Transformers: Dark of the Moon, the third chapter of Michael Bay’s rip-roaring action extravaganza.

It was only four years ago that the classic collection of toy robots, who were mega-cool in that they could transform themselves into vehicles, were brought to the big screen for the first time. Transformers opened to $70 million and went on to gross an impressive $319 million domestically. The follow-up, Revenge of the Fallen, soared to an incredible $108 million OW and just over $400 million domestically (becoming the #1 film of 2009), despite being what many considered to be a major disappointment story-wise.

Bay has since been quick to aver that Revenge of the Fallendid not proceed along the lines that he originally envisioned, but hopes to get the series back on track with Dark of the Moon. Gone is talentless sexpot Megan Fox, whose character was sent to the dung-heap after a falling out with Bay, and she will be replaced by English model Rosie Huntington-Whiteley (who has no acting experience whatever… why, Michael?)

It should also be noted that screenwriters Roberto Orci and Alex Kurtzman, who have teamed with J.J. Abrams on numerous projects, were not brought back to pen the third script. That job was given to Ehren Kruger, who co-wrote Dark of the Moon, along with films like (brace yourself) The Ring Two, The Brothers Grimm and Blood and Chocolate. Uh-oh… Anyway, everyone else IS returning, including Shia LaBeouf, Josh Duhamal, Tyrese Gibson, John Turturro, Kevin Dunn and Julie White. Also joining the fray are Patrick Dempsey, Frances McDormand (hmmm…), John Malkovich and Ken Jeong (fresh off Hangover 2).

The plot (though who really cares) apparently involves the Decepticons’ last-ditch ever to defeat Optimus Prime and the Autobots and take over Earth, using a weapon called “The Ark”, which has been hidden on Earth’s moon since 1961 (and, for all you conspiracy theorists out there, was the REAL reason the ’69 moon landing was planned). What results is a 153-minute all-out metal-on-metal throwdown, with poor humanity in the middle.

For the third time, a Transformers movie will go head-to-head with a Harry Potter movie, a battle that Transformers has won twice before (on U.S. soil, anyway). Now, I’m not sure if this is definitely the LAST Transformers movie, but the upcoming Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Pt 2 will be the final Harry movie for the foreseeable future. With Deathly Hallows representing the end to an eight-part, decade-long series beloved by millions the world over, and with Transformers coming off a hugely successful yet disappointing second chapter, can Michael Bay pull off the sweep? That is the question.

As unsure as we all were about the bevy of sequels and untested superhero films coming this summer, I think we can all agree that if only two surefire hits were to come out of the summer of 2011, it would be Transformers and Harry Potter. Therefore, I think that retrograde apathy will only affect Dark of the Moon only just enough to prevent it from reaching $400 million. $300 million should be a piece of cake, and $350 million is quite likely as well.

In the July Ultimate leagues, Transformers – which will debut in nearly 4,000 locations – will run you $33 ($2 less than HP). I know it’s so tempting to put both titles on your rosters, but that will really hamstring your ability to choose your other six. However, I can’t argue with that strategy, as both films will probably earn more than double what any other film might amass. Of course, you’re unencumbered by the eight-movie rule in Box Office (where T3 will cost you $34), so I’m betting most of you will opt for picking both in those leagues as well. And you should… there are so few sure things in life, but this is one of them. For Transformers (which opens Wednesday, June 29), I predict 17 Top 5 points, eight PTA, an OW of $108 million ($177 million for the Wed-Mon time period) and $360 million overall. Grab it.

Even though Cars 2 didn’t open as highly as anticipated, it’s likely that it will suffer only small drops over the next few weeks (it IS Pixar, after all). There are two other films being given wide release that, more than likely, will suffer in the “Top 5” category because it chose this particular weekend to come out. But then, it IS a holiday, and only we Fantaversians concern ourselves with such things. It is worth noting, however, that there are NINE big films coming in the next four weeks, and Top 5 points will be at a premium.

To go up against Pixar AND fighting robots, you need to appeal to a way different audience. With the kids-and-teens demographic already covered, Larry Crowne may indeed find success, as it seems to skew significantly towards adults (though not nearly in the same way that Bad Teacher did). It is a romantic comedy/drama, and it stars Tom Hanks, arguably one of the most respected and beloved actors of this generation, and Julia Roberts, who last teamed up in 2007 for the wonderful but underappreciated Charlie Wilson’s War.

Rather than playing a congressman and a millionaire, however, Hanks and Roberts are playing far more workaday roles in Larry Crowne. Larry (Hanks) is a navy veteran who works at a big-box store who is surprised when he suddenly loses his job, on the grounds that he never received a college education. Realizing that one is never too old to learn, he enrolls at a community college, where he ends up in the classroom of Mercedes Tainot (Roberts), who seems to be more than a little jaded about her effectiveness as an educator. As the two get to know each other, a learning process begins for both of them… as well as romance, of course. Bryan Cranston, Cedric the Entertainer, Taraji P. Henson, Pam Grier, Rita Wilson (Hanks’ wife) and… George Takei (?!) co-star.

Universal has done a pretty good job advertising Larry Crowne, which Hanks also directed, and also co-wrote the script for with Nia Vardalos (My Big Fat Greek Wedding). It will be hitting roughly 2,750 theaters this Friday. Granted, Hanks and Roberts are not guaranteed draws (not even together… Charlie Wilson’s War only managed $66 million in a winter 2007 release), but they both still have built-in fan-bases, and I think Larry Crowne will put up similar numbers.

For $14 in Ultimate ($15 in Box Office), I think you can expect a $24 million OW, $66 million overall, a very decent Rating (in the mid-7 range), and three or four PTA. However, I think you will only get four or five Top 5 points for it, max, which is something that should give you pause before considering it in Ultimate. Too much, too quickly, as is often the case in summer.

Next, we have Monte Carlo, a romantic teen comedy that will be debuting in 2,400 theaters this Friday as well. Directed by Thomas Bezucha (The Family Stone) and co-produced by Denise Di Novi (which is good) and Nicole Kidman (which… isn’t), Monte Carlo tells the tale of a young woman named Grace (pop star Selena Gomez), her uptight stepsister Meg (Leighton Meester) and her best friend Emma (Katie Cassidy), whose long-anticipated trip to Paris turns out to be a big letdown. However, things take a turn for the dubious when Grace is mistaken for a spoiled British heiress (also played by Gomez), and then the trio are whisked away to luxurious Monte Carlo, where the real vacation begins.

Let’s face it… it’s The Princess Diaries for a new decade, the perfect opportunity for Gomez to stretch her “acting” wings a little bit, sell a ton of records, and fall in love with a hot French guy (no, not Chien). But if the box office is a stick, Monte Carlo will end up on the short end of it. Yes, it’s only $7 (in both leagues), and for that, you can pull out two or three PTA (one of the benefits of debuting in the opening week of a league), but you’ll also only get one Top 5 points, a horrible Rating and $25 million. So not worth it.

Only one limited-release to tell you about this week, and it is The Perfect Host. This feature from Magnolia Pictures is director by newbie Nick Tomnay, and it stars David Hyde Pierce (Frasier) and Clayne Crawford (24, The Glades), and it bows on only two screens this Friday.

John Taylor (Crawford) is a fugitive on the lam with $300,000 in stolen loot on his person. Seeking to lay low until the heat’s off, he cons his way into the home of Warwick Wilson (Pierce), a mild-mannered-seeming man who realizes John’s true identity just as he’s about to throw a dinner party. After losing the upper hand to Warwick, John realizes to his horror the cliché “it’s always the quiet ones…” is apt in Warwick's case. Needless to say, Warwick has a very… dark… streak.

The Perfect Host has a decent Rating so far (7.2, though with only 217 votes), but the early reviews have been somewhat sketchy (3/6 positive at RT). Normally, I would say that this title has too many “ifs” attached to it to be a good pick, but it is only $3 in Ultimate leagues, and with only four films coming out this weekend, it is GUARANTEED at least two PTA points. It could conceivably earn as many as four, which would make it a very sound investment.


My predictions for the weekend of July 1-3, 2011:

1. Transformers: Dark of the Moon – $108 million ($126 million 4-day, $177 million 6-day)
2. Cars 2 – $40 million ($50 million 4-day)
3. Larry Crowne – $24 million ($31 million 4-day)
4. Bad Teacher – $15 million ($21 million 4-day)
5. Monte Carlo – $11 million ($15 million 4-day)

Well, that will do it for me for another week. Next week, while we warm up for the boy wizard’s long-anticipated swan song, six new films hit theaters, including: Zookeeper, a big-budget family comedy starring Kevin James; Horrible Bosses, a revenge comedy starring Jason Bateman, Jennifer Aniston and Kevin Spacey; as well as four limited releases, dramas Rapt and Ranchero and documentaries Project Nim and Beats, Rhymes & Life: The Travels of a Tribe Called Quest.

Celebrities with milestone (div. by 10) birthdays this week:

Julia Duffy (Newhart, Designing Women) (60 on 6/27)
Monica Potter (Con Air, Saw, now on TV’s Parenthood) (40 on 6/30)
Missy Elliott (singer/rapper/actress) (40 on 7/1)
Princess Diana (would have been 50 on 7/1)
Fred Schneider (B-52’s lead singer) (60 on 7/1)

Later!

[Buscemi]

Monte Carlo is probably of the flop of the summer. It's a blatant retread of The Lizzie McGuire Movie (Disney pop star plays American traveling in Europe and is mistaken for famous person played by the same actress) and the trailer and poster highlights the worst joke (we get it, she's from Texas). The current tracking had it at $8 million for the four-day weekend but I wouldn't be surprised if it went lower (Fox seems to be afraid about even releasing it).

And Larry Crowne should have excellent legs (better than the 24/66 you're suggesting), being the only adult-oriented film of the month. I'm going to say 25/110.

[W]

I don't think anyone's heard of Larry Crowne... That in itself may be its downfall.

[undeadmonkey]

is it just me or should harry potter and Transformers have been pricier in the the Box Office category? It's hardly competitive when you can put both on your slate with another third of your money left to fill out your slate. I'm starting to forget some things from FM but weren't some summer tentpoles over $50

and if Larry Crowne opens that low, there is no way it is going to get to $110M, boosh


Also agree with W, I have seen nothing about Larry Crowne, anywhere. I've seen the trailer once, on this website.

[silversurfer19]

I seem to remember FM running tentpoles between $42 and $47.

[Buscemi]

Knight and Day (same target audience) had a 3.5 multiplier with a fallen star in Tom Cruise. Larry Crowne can easily get a 4 multiplier with a more respected name.

[W]

I can't complain about pricing. I never got mine in, so I don't receive them anymore...

And as long as similarly expected movies are priced similarly then it's all good for me. I did used to shoot for 5x multipliers, though, and now I'm more shooting for 7x.

[silversurfer19]

In box office, I always aim for a 10x multiplier, but often settle for a 7x. 5x just doesn't get you close to the top half.

And do you really think that Knight and Day had the same target audience as Larry Crowne, Boussh? I don't see it. Larry Crowne is much more family focused with mr. everyman in the lead, while Knight and Day was certainly focused more at a younger teen crowd. No-one over 35 would watch Knight and Day, while I guess a decent portion of Larry Crowne''s would be that range.

Having said that, because of it's target audience, I wouldn't be surprised to see it hit blockbuster status with smallish (45%) drops.

[Shrykespeare]

I'm over 35 and I saw Knight & Day...

And if you want back on the pricing panel, W, all you have to do is ask. Same with Geez, tranny and anyone else.

If you think the prices are two low, blame the nine people who do participate.

[silversurfer19]

You certainly are of rare breed, Shryke...

And I think the pricing is fair enough, despite being lower than usual. It allows us to put more movies on our BO slates which therefore allows for more variations in our choices.

[Buscemi]

In box office, I always aim for a 10x multiplier, but often settle for a 7x. 5x just doesn't get you close to the top half.

And do you really think that Knight and Day had the same target audience as Larry Crowne, Boussh? I don't see it. Larry Crowne is much more family focused with mr. everyman in the lead, while Knight and Day was certainly focused more at a younger teen crowd. No-one over 35 would watch Knight and Day, while I guess a decent portion of Larry Crowne''s would be that range.

Having said that, because of it's target audience, I wouldn't be surprised to see it hit blockbuster status with smallish (45%) drops.

When exit polls were done on Knight and Day, the movie was better attended by older adults than younger adults (the younger adults were seeing Grown Ups). This was mostly due to the fact that there were no other movies for older adults and Tom Cruise's name having more weight with older adults (older adults think of Tom Cruise in his prime, younger adults think of Tom Cruise jumping couches). Had the majority of the audience been younger adults, it wouldn't had held the way it did.

Larry Crowne has much of that same audience, but with a lead that has never suffered any sort of backlash (even when he did the controversial Da Vinci Code movies, his career didn't suffer). Also, Tom Hanks has always had success in the summer (Big, A League of Their Own, Sleepless in Seattle, Forrest Gump, Apollo 13, Saving Private Ryan, Road To Perdition, The Da Vinci Code, Angels and Demons).

[W]

I like the lower pricing. I like being able to choose more big films if I decide to and they're still priced well across the board.

[BanksIsDaFuture]

I remember The Dark Knight was $61 on FM....

And, Shryke, you guys still do price-by-committee? I thought the Italians set the prices.

[Buscemi]

Final run time of Transformers 3: 154 minutes.

[numbersix]

I gotta agree with Buscemi on this one, Larry Crowne will have major legs. As he said, it is really the only adult-oriented movie of the summer (until The Help, which I also think will have legs). It could easily get to 100 mil

Can't say anything about advertising, although I do see it getting a lot over here on primetime TV slots (usually in between "adult" dramas like Grey's Anatomy, etc). Maybe they're going for an international push more, but I honeslty see a film starring two actors that resonate hugely with a mature audience doing incredibly well as counter-programming.

Transformers 3 should be huge, but not as huge as Transformers 2. Probably along the lines of T1 although with a higher OW and weaker legs.

As for Perfect Host, I'm not taking it except for July leagues where it's almost guaranteed 3 PTA points (unless it really underperforms and Monte Carlo overperforms, but the latter is unlikely)

Predictions
1. Transformers: Dark of the Moon – $120 million ($150 million 4-day, $190 million 6-day)
2. Cars 2 – $38 million ($50 million 4-day)
3. Larry Crowne – $28 million ($35 million 4-day)
4. Bad Teacher – $15 million ($20 million 4-day)
5. Green Lantern – $9 million ($13 million 4-day)