SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 4/15/11

[Shrykespeare]

Who would have thought when the year started that the first film to repeat as Box Office champion would be Hop? After a terrific opening weekend, the innocuous Easter Bunny movie was the only film this past weekend to top $20 million, bringing its impressive 10-day total to over $68 million. Meanwhile, Arthur made it a 1-2 finish for Russell Brand this week as well, just barely edging out debuts Hanna and Soul Surfer. Kudos also go to Meek’s Cutoff for winning the PTA race.

It’s no secret that 2011 has been a disappointing year so far, box-office-wise. Only two films have cracked the $100 million mark thus far (Rango and Just Go With It). It seems clear that Hop will as well, but this coming weekend may just be the first weekend of the year that will herald the release of TWO blockbusters, and they couldn’t be more different: one is an animated family comedy, and the other is a sequel to a very popular horror franchise whose last chapter came more than a decade ago.

The first major film I’ll talk about is Rio, the latest animated film from Blue Sky Studios. While not as successful, long-lived or notable as Pixar or DreamWorks, Blue Sky has done quite well: its first five films (Robots, Horton Hears a Who! and the three Ice Age films) have averaged an impressive $500 million internationally. Given the success of the Ice Age films especially, 20th Century Fox and Blue Sky opted to bring in director Carlos Saldanha to helm Rio.

Rio tells the story of Blu (Jesse Eisenberg), a Brazilian blue macaw who is captured as a baby and eventually taken to Minnesota, where he is taken in by a loving bookstore owner named Linda (Leslie Mann). Years later, Linda is petitioned by a scientist to bring Blu back to Brazil in order to propagate the species – apparently Blu and a female macaw named Jewel (Anne Hathaway) are the only ones left – to which Linda reluctantly agrees.

Things get more complicated when, after the two macaws are introduced, they are captured by animal smugglers. In their attempt to escape, the pair must find a way to bond while staying alive. Along the way, they meet a variety of exotic birds and other animals of various temperaments, including Rafael (George Lopez), a toucan who must teach Blu how to fly. Tracy Morgan, Will.i.am, Jamie Foxx, Wanda Sykes and Neil Patrick Harris co-star, and you can expect a plethora of musical interludes and colorful samba numbers.

I expect Rio to not only top Hop for #1 this week (it’s debuting in 3,800 theaters), but I fully expect it to duplicate Hop’s feat of winning back-to-back weekends. Rio has gotten much better reviews than Hop (currently 86% fresh at RT with 32/37 positing) and has a much better early Rating (7.4/475 votes). It’s only $17 in April Ultimate leagues ($18 in Box Office), but honestly, I think this could be a bigger bargain than several of the summer blockbusters. I envision a $49 million OW, thirteen Top 5 points, six PTA and $150 million overall. So if you can possible squeeze this into your lineups, do it.

In 1996, the original Scream was released. It starred a plethora of popular actors, including David Arquette, Neve Campbell, Courtney Cox, Jamie Kennedy and Drew Barrymore. It made $103 million in a winter release and, over the next few years, spawned two successful sequels – Scream 2 earned $101 million in winter 1997, and Scream 3 earned $89 million in spring of 2000. And now, a full eleven years later, get ready for Scream 4, and yes, director and horror maven Wes Craven is still the man in charge.

Part of the appeal of the Scream movies is its satirical and self-referential style, often making note of the many clichés prevalent in typical slasher films. I’ve not seen any of them, but I’d be interested to know how the film’s villain, the serial killer “Ghostface” makes a comeback despite having been definitively killed in the last chapter. Whatever the case, series veterans Arquette, Campbell and Cox reprise their roles, along with next-gen actresses Emma Roberts and Hayden Panettiere, both of whom find themselves the focus of Ghostface after several of their high-school classmates are killed. Anthony Anderson, Adam Brody, Rory Culkin, Mary McDonnell, and Aimee Teegarden (coming up in Prom) costar, and Kristen Bell and Anna Paquin are rumored to have cameos.

Scream 4 is likely to be the most-hyped as well as the highest-grossing horror movie to come out in 2011 (depending on how well Paranormal Activity 3 does). I’m sure many horror enthusiasts, particularly those who enthusiastically loved the series ten years ago, will be in attendance. However, like most horror films, I expect attendance to tail off sharply in the following weeks. It will run you $17 in Ultimate and $19 in Box Office, and will debuting in about 3,300 locations. In all, I predict a $42 million OW, nine Top 5 points, three PTA, a so-so Rating and $108 million overall. It’s a good buy for its price, but not nearly as good as Rio, I think. You could put both on your slates, I suppose, but I doubt these two titles together will outgross Kung Fu Panda 2 or Pirates 4.

Up next is The Conspirator, the very first release from American Film Company, which is run by Ameritrade founder and Chicago Cubs owner Joe Ricketts. It is a historical drama, directed by none other than Hollywood legend Robert Redford, and it stars Robin Wright, James McAvoy, Justin Long, Evan Rachel Wood, Tom Wilkinson, Alexis Bledel, Danny Huston, Kevin Kline, Stephen Root and Colm Meaney.

Taking place in 1865, The Conspirator tells the story of Mary Surratt (Wright), the only woman – along with seven men – charged with conspiring to assassinate Abraham Lincoln, along with Lincoln’s VP and Secretary of State. Surratt, it seems, owned the boarding house where John Wilkes Booth (Toby Kebbell) and his collaborators met and planned the attacks. She is defended by attorney Frederick Aiken (McAvoy), a former Union war hero, before a military tribunal, and his defense is that the government is only charging her to flush out the only conspirator to evade justice, that being her son John (Johnny Simmons).

I’ve seen trailers for this film, and it looks very intriguing, like most “based on true events” historical dramas. However, it’s a complete no-go for the Ultimate game, because its release platform (550 theaters) is not conducive to PTA points. It may be worth spending $2 on it in Box Office, but that’s about it.

And now, a little bit about this weekend’s two other limited-release films:

A Screaming Man ($4 Ult, $1 BO) – This is a French-Chadian film from director Mahamat Saleh Haroun. Taking place in current-day, civil-war-torn Chad, the film centers on Adam (Youssouf Djaoro), an elderly man who is the security guard at a posh hotel’s swimming pool. However, when the hotel is bought out by Chinese investors, he is forced to give up his duties to his son Abdel (Diouc Koma), and all this while the government is harassing him for support (in the form of contributions or volunteerism) to fend off attacks from political rebels.

A Screaming Man appears to be a very somber movie, but it has gotten much critical acclaim, including the coveted Jury Prize at the Cannes Film Festival. It has a current Rating of 7.1 (with 186 votes), and it could be a very good pick if it comes out in an appropriately low number of theaters. Regrettably, I do not have that information, beyond that it appears to be coming out in New York only.

The Princess of Montpensier ($3 Ult, $1 BO) – This film is, coincidentally, also a French-language film, but rather than taking place in modern-day Africa, it is set in 16th-century France, during the period of the Catholic/Protestant wars that were tearing France apart. The film centers on the character of Marie de Mezieres (Babylon A.D.’s Melanie Thierry), who is arranged by her father to marry the well-connected Philippe de Montpensier (Gregoire Leprince-Ringuet) despite the fact that she is in love with another man, that being her cousin, Henri de Guise (Gaspard Ulliel). It, too, was an entry at last year’s Cannes Film Festival, and it, too, has been very well-reviewed (7/7 positive at RT).

I think I will have to give Princess the nod over Screaming Man for PTA potential. French period pieces tend to do better than African dramas. In addition, for only $3, you can also benefit from its User Rating (currently 7.0 with over 250 votes).


My predictions for the weekend of April 15-17, 2011:

1. Rio - $49 million
2. Scream 4 - $42 million
3. Hop - $13 million
4. Arthur - $7 million
5. Hanna - $6 million

Well, that will do it for me for another week. Next week, as we draw ever closer to the beginning of the summer season, four more films will take center stage, including: Madea’s Big Happy Family, Tyler Perry’s latest chapter in the saga of his wisecracking matriarch; Water For Elephants, a romantic period drama with Robert Pattinson and Reese Witherspoon; Best Foreign Film Oscar nominee Incendies; and DisneyNature’s latest Earth Day documentary, African Cats: Kingdom of Courage.

Celebrities with milestone (div. by 10) birthdays this week:

Vincent Gallo (The Brown Bunny) (50 on 4/11)
Shannen Doherty (90210) (40 on 4/12)
Robert Carlyle (currently on SGU Stargate Universe) (50 on 4/14)
Julie Christie (Red Riding Hood) (70 on 4/14)

Later!

[Buscemi]

1. Rio $41 million
2. Scream 4 $36 million
3. Hop $10 million
4. Hanna $7 million
5. Arthur $6 million
-- Soul Surfer $5 million
-- Source Code $5 million
-- Insidious $4 million
-- Your Highness $4 million
-- The Conspirator $2 million
-- Atlas Shrugged: Part I $130,000 (Don't they realize that Republicans and Tea Party members don't see movies? I Want Your Money was a disaster back in October since it was a 90 minute commercial of something that could easily be seen on television every 30 seconds).

[BanksIsDaFuture]

and Kristen Bell and Anna Paquin are rumored to have cameos.

Well...they're in the trailer, so they're definitely in the film. I'm sure they'll be the Drew Barrymore of Scream 4...

[Buscemi]

I've seen stills from the scene. It looks more like they will be ripping off the opening to Scary Movie 3 rather than doing a homage to Scream.

[Chienfantome]

The Princess of Montpensier is one of the very best French films I have seen in 2010, I highly recommend it to anyone who will have the chance to have the film playing nearby...
Besides it is directed by Bertrand Tavernier, one of the most respected french filmmakers still in activity.

[Shrykespeare]

Thanks for adding that little factoid, Chien. I meant to mention it but I apparently forgot....

[numbersix]

Rio should be huge, though 49 remains quite high for me. Not many animated movies have opened in April, and besides Hop, there's no way of knowing how bit it will get.
As for Scream 4, early tracking has it high but I'm gonna be stubborn and say it won't be much of a hit. It'll open in the 30's at most and drop hard and fast.

I don't have much hopes for the Conspirator, especially as it's the first release of a distribution company.
As for PTA, I'm not going near either although The Princess of Montpensier's reviews do make it worth a punt.

Estimates

1. Rio - $40 million
2. Scream 4 - $31 million
3. Hop - $10 million
4. Arthur - $7 million
5. Hanna - $6 million

[Buscemi]

Actually Lionsgate is releasing The Conspirator. The American Film Company is just the production company (they hired Lionsgate to put it into theatres).

[numbersix]

Ah, okay, that makes more sense.

[Brockster]

MTC is now tracking Scream at 27M, Rio at 40M

[undeadmonkey]

those seem much more reasonable, than the high number of late.

[Shrykespeare]

Early RT scores:
Scream 4 - 61% (28/45)
Rio - 73% (41/56)
The Conspirator - 57% (17/30)
The Princess of Montpensier - 100% (9/9)
A Screaming Man - 88% (15/17)

Also:
Atlas Shrugged Part I - 0% (0/5)

Coming Next Week:
Incendies - 95% (19/20)

[Brockster]

Surprised at Scream 4's rating, thought it would be much lower.

[Buscemi]

It's been as low as 47%.

[Brockster]

Even that seems higher than I would have expected! This is an interesting weekend. Even if Scream wins out I think Rio will end up higher in the long run.