SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 2/25/11

[Shrykespeare]

Things definitely seem to be picking up after a rather ho-hum January. All three major debuts this past weekend eclipsed the $15 million mark, led by Unknown with over $21 million. Six films in all reached eight figures over the three-day weekend, and Oscar hopefuls The King’s Speech and Black Swan were both able to surpass $100 million earned. Kudos also to Jeremy Irons and The Last Lions, which took the PTA crown.

With Shelter being shipped off to an unconfirmed summer release date, we will close out February with only three films, two in wide-release and one in limited release. Beyond that, we are looking at a very crowded March, with a whopping 25 films on the docket. Separating the wheat from the chaff could be a very difficult chore, but at the very least it looks like there are some entertaining films in the mix.

The first film to talk about this week is Hall Pass, the latest comedic outing from Warner Bros. and from the Farrelly Brothers, Bobby and Peter, who turned out some of the funniest films of the 90’s, such as There’s Something About Mary, Dumb and Dumber, and Kingpin. Which is not to say that they’ve hit the mark every time: for the past ten years, they have been trying – unsuccessfully – to recapture that magic, but have failed with clunkers such as Stuck On You, Fever Pitch and the horrendous The Heartbreak Kid.

Hall Pass centers on best friends Rick (Owen Wilson, pretty much being himself) and Fred (Jason Sudeikis), who have both been married for many years and are becoming restless. Seeing their unhappiness, their wives Maggie (Jenna Fischer) and Grace (Christina Applegate), in an effort to revitalize their relationship, give the two of them a “hall pass”, which is a concise way to say that the boys have permission to do whatever they want for a whole week without consequences. Naturally, the guys jump at the chance, looking forward to drinking and debauching it up, but they soon realize that being “temporarily” single is no picnic when they’ve been out of the game for as long as they have. Joy Behar, Alyssa Milano and Richard Jenkins co-star.

Well, I may be all at sea on this one, but whatever allure The Farrellys’ had in the 90’s seems to have up and gone, and I don’t believe that Hall Pass is their ticket back to respectability. Yes, it does look mildly amusing in places, and the concept is a good one for comedic purposes, but Owen Wilson hasn’t headlined a successful comedy since Wedding Crashers (no, I don’t count Marley & Me, that film was less about him than the dog), and Sudeikis, while a terrific stand-up comedian, has been relegated to supporting performances in his movie career and is not a household name (yet) that will bring audiences in. Plus, it’s rated R, which I don’t think will help its numbers much.

Hall Pass will run you $12 in Ultimate leagues and $14 in Box Office. I think that, with a release platform of over 3,000 theaters, it will muster enough fans to take #1 this weekend, pulling in $18 million en route to $43 million in total take, seven Top 5 points, maybe one or two PTA and a so-so Rating (in the 6’s). I don’t think these stats are good enough to warrant taking the plunge. Sorry.

As I said when I reviewed Season of the Witch six weeks ago, you can always count on Nicolas Cage to be in two or three B-level action movies a year, and, two months into 2011, we’re already getting ready to see his second. This one is called Drive Angry, and like director Patrick Lussier’s last outing (My Bloody Valentine), it will be showcased in 3D.

In this film, Cage plays Milton, a vengeful father who has “broken out of Hell”, in order to avenge the death of his daughter at the hands of a murderous cult leader (Billy Burke), as well as to prevent his infant granddaughter from being sacrificed. Along the way, he hooks up with Piper (Amber Heard), a hot Daisy Dukes-wearing babe who is capable of kicking a little ass of her own. And of course, one can’t break out of Hades without attracting attention, so Satan sends his best “man”, a mysterious specter known as “The Accountant” (William Fichtner) to retrieve Milton.

Honestly, this film looks like a lot of fun, with Cage in his element. It kind of looks like a throwback to the old “grindhouse” action films of the 70’s (something Grindhouse attempted to do but failed), and though I’m not sure just how much more impressive the film will be in 3D, it doesn’t make me want to see it any less. However, I’m not blind to the fact that Cage movies tend to be busts more often than otherwise, and I don’t think that Drive Angry will come close to any numbers that one might deem respectable. For $11 in the Ultimate Leagues ($12 in Box Office), I think that you’ll end up with only one or two Top 5 points, no PTA, a paltry Rating and maybe $28 million. Despite the nostalgia factor, I would really stay away from Drive Angry.

The only limited-release film this week is called Of Gods and Men, a French drama from director Xavier Beauvois and stars French acting veterans Lambert Wilson and Michael Lonsdale. It centers on the monastery of Tibhirine, where Trappist monks lived in harmony with the largely-Muslim citizens of Algeria, until several of them were viciously murdered in 1996. The film, from what I understand, deals with events leading up to that incident.

Of Gods and Men, to put it mildly, has been very well-received on the festival circuit for the past year, having been showcased in New York, Telluride and Toronto, as well as winning the prestigious Grand Prix Award in Cannes. It has a terrific score at RT (87% on 20/23 reviews) and a very respectable User Rating (7.6 with over 1,600 votes). It will be opening in only three theaters this Friday, so PTA points seem to be virtually assured. For $4 in Ultimate, you could end up earning PTA points in multiple weeks. I’d strongly consider taking it.


My predictions for the weekend of February 25-27, 2011:

1. Hall Pass - $18 million
2. Gnomeo and Juliet – $13 million
3. Unknown - $12 million
T4. Drive Angry - $11 million
T4. I Am Number Four - $11 million
T4. Just Go With It – $11 million

Well, that will do it for me for another week. Next week, we begin our assault on March with six new films, including: Rango, an animated film starring the voice of Johnny Depp; The Adjustment Bureau, a twisty sci-fi/romance story starring Matt Damon; Beastly, a romantic drama starring Alex Pettyfer and Vanessa Hudgens; Take Me Home Tonight, a nostalgic 80’s throwback to party movies starring Topher Grace and Anna Faris; as well as limited-release features Happythankyoumoreplease and I Saw the Devil.

Celebrities with milestone (div. by 10) birthdays this week:

Patricia Richardson (Home Improvement) (60 on 2/23)
Abe Vigoda (Barney Miller, The Godfather) (90 on 2/24)
Sean Astin (The Goonies, Lord of the Rings) (40 on 2/25)
Erykah Badu (singer) (40 on 2/26)
Josh Groban (singer) (30 on 2/27)
Rae Dawn Chong (Commando, The Principal, daughter of Tommy Chong) (50 on 2/28)

Later!

[Buscemi]

I'll say...

1. Hall Pass $14 million (it will perform just like The Heartbreak Kid did four years ago)
2. Unknown $13 million
3. Gnomeo and Juliet $13 million
4. Drive Angry $12 million (I imagine that enough people will see it for the intentionally bad factor)
5. Just Go With It $11 million
-- I Am Number Four $10 million
-- Big Mommas $7 million

[numbersix]

A bit of a dud week this week. I think you're underestimating Hall Pass a tad, Bousch. Yes, Heatbreak Kid performed poorly, but films like Hall Pass seem to be popular (bromance sex comedy) these days and there's not much competition for the weekend so I'm going to say Shryke is bang on with his prediction. As for Drive Angry, the Nick Cage madness thing is becoming quite the meme and I imagine the 3D will help. I could see it performing like Machete.

1. Hall Pass - $18 million
2. Gnomeo and Juliet – $12 million
3. Drive Angry - $12 million
4. Unknown - $11 million
5. I Am Number Four/Just Go With it - $9 million


As for Of Gods and Men, having seen it I can guarantee it's too arthouse to be a breakout hit, but it's potent enough to impress the critics and thus it should win the weekend and nab a point or two next weekend also.

[Buscemi]

But The Farrelly Brothers always seem to make the same movie and people have been getting tired of them lately (There's Something About Mary, Shallow Hal, Fever Pitch, The Heartbreak Kid, Hall Pass, the sameness is irritating). Also, New Line trying to shove Jason Sudeikis into people's throats hasn't been working (they tried to break him out with Going The Distance, which flopped).

[Buscemi]

And here's early tracking

Hall Pass $16 million (weird, I've seen almost no marketing on it)
Drive Angry $11 million
The Grace Card $1.6 million (a Christian film that only seems to be playing at churches)

[undeadmonkey]

i had to look up this jason sudeikis guy as i didn't know who he was. can't say they have been shoving him down my throats. looks like a really boring weekend to me. I'll be seeing Take Me Home Tonight this weekend. and next week i want to see Rango, i think it looks hilarious

[Buscemi]

He was in Going The Distance (which had quite a bit of it promoted around him and Charlie Day's characters) and has Horrible Bosses opening in July (also pairing him with Charlie Day). Including Hall Pass, all three films are from the same studio and he is a lead or a major supporting character. If that isn't shoving down your throat, I don't know what is.

[Shrykespeare]

I have two tickets to see a sneak preview of Rango on Saturday. Hope to take the wife with me, if she can stand waiting in line for 45-60 minutes.

[BanksIsDaFuture]

We had a sneak of The Grace Card, and it was completely full.

It'll be in 3-4 theaters in my city, and it probably wont do as well as Fireproof, but it should be pretty substantial.

And, Busc, you've probably seen marketing for Hall Pass (how can you miss it? It's everywhere) but you probably just blocked it from your memory, due to your hatred of Jason Suidekis...

[Buscemi]

I've only seen one TV spot (during last night's Conan, which also had ads for Paul and Rango) and one trailer for Hall Pass. Also, no online ads. Meanwhile, I've seen way more ads for Drive Angry (including the Super Bowl spot).

Speaking about Paul, it had a monster opening in the UK (in terms of US dollars, it did $20,000 per theatre and trounced the competition). This could mean good things in the US (unless good-quality bootlegs come out, some lower-quality bootlegs are already circulating).

[numbersix]

Reviews will kill Paul. They've been pretty nasty over here. It onyl did well in the UK as Pegg and Frost are so well known

[silversurfer19]

Yeah, I love Pegg and Frost, but ever since the first trailer I've had very low expectations. I didn't look anything special, and worst of all for a movie with those two (along with Rogen), it didn't look funny. I would be surprised to see it hit over $30m. I just don't trust a movie involving those two without Edgar Wright in charge.

[Buscemi]

Paul got a 66% on Rotten Tomatoes, which is definitely not nasty. Also, a majority of reviewers have said not to trust the trailers and that it is much better than what the trailers show you.

Also, Edgar Wright needs Simon and Nick to make things work. He couldn't get audiences to see Scott Pilgrim with Michael Cera in the lead (which should have been reworked into a Simon and Nick vehicle).

[silversurfer19]

It's 66% from 19 reviews. And those which are fresh all seem to hint that it is in desperate need of Edgar Wright. Expect it's score to drop like a bomb in the coming weeks.

And you say he didn't get audiences to see Scott Pilgrim because there was no Pegg and Frost? It was his most successful movie to date in the US.

[Buscemi]

Barely. Hot Fuzz managed a similar amount but in less than half of the theatres and did quite nicely on DVD. Also had Canada not been there, it would have grossed less.

It would have been much more successful with Simon Pegg (who's getting a lot of notice lately and has played major supporting characters in three $100 million grossing films) rather than box office poison Michael Cera in the lead.