SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 7/18

[Shrykespeare]

Dawn of the Planet of the Apes capitalized on the tremendous success of its predecessor, along with insanely positive reviews, and stormed out to a $73M OW. Two-time champ Transformers: Age of Extintction fell to second with $16.5M but cleared the $200M hurdle in the process, while Tammy, 22 Jump Street and How to Train Your Dragon 2 all suffered small drops to round out the Top 5. On the PTA front, Dawn scored a very high number but couldn’t hold a candle to Richard Linklater’s critical darling Boyhood. Adventure film Land Ho! managed a third-place finish.

Folks, I’m starting to get worried. Repeated attempted communications with our Italian friends had either gone ignored or unanswered. When I have heard back from them, it’s been to say that there have been “technical issues”, and that the game site is most definitely NOT ending. However, it would seem that the bulk of their attention is creating their Facebook app, which means that the several dozen people who still play on the MMG site may likely very soon be left without a chair when the music stops. God, I hope I’m wrong, but after six weeks of no updates, no sign of the September films, and 99% radio silence, what else are we to think?

Not to be the voice of doom, but I have a suspicion that, barring a last-minute save, in a few weeks we will be back to playing the game in its post-FM, pre-MMG state: e-mails, forum boards, spreadsheets, stone knives and bearskins. The good news is, at least the is a ray of sunlight on the horizon, and we can only hope that empire’s friends are able to cobble together a working, functional website before the year is out.

Till then, however, it’s business as usual, I guess, and there are five films to talk about this week, all scheduled for release on Friday, July 18th. Three of those films are in wide release, and they couldn’t be more different as far as genres go, which is probably a good thing seeing as how all three are basically competing for second place behind Dawn, which will likely take the #1 spot this week without breaking a sweat. Director Jake Kasdan re-teams with his Bad Teacher star Cameron Diaz (who is coming off the surprise hit The Other Woman from earlier this year) for Sex Tape (Sony/Columbia), an adult comedy that also stars Jason Segel, Rob Corddry and Rob Lowe. It is scheduled for a release platform of over 3,000 theaters.

Segel and Diaz play Jay and Annie, a married couple have lost their spark after ten years of marriage and two kids, so they decide to spice up their love life by filming themselves having sex. Unfortunately, an oversight causes the video to be inadvertently sent out to over a dozen iPads that were given to friends and relatives as Christmas gifts. Oops. Damn, I hate when that happens. Anyway, the frantic couple must retrieve all the iPads as quickly as possible, and hijinks ensue, as is wont to happen.

Adult comedies have done pretty well this summer, as evidenced by the performances of Neighbors, 22 Jump Street and, to a smaller extent, Tammy. As I said earlier, Diaz is hot right now (in more ways than one), and pairing her with Segel provides more star power than Melissa McCarthy on her own. Sex Tape is the only comedy on the schedule for a solid month, and if good WOM follows this film, it may be a worthy pick.

Sex Tape will run you $17 in both July leagues. Despite all the positives, that’s a lot to spend on a film that will likely never achieve the #1 spot. I do think it will come in second, though, with around $25M, and pick up eight Top 5 points, maybe a couple PTA, and $85M. This would obviously make it a much better pick in Box Office… which will be a recurring theme this week.




Next up is Planes: Fire and Rescue (Buena Vista), Disney’s sequel to last year’s modest animated hit Planes, which in turn was a spinoff of sorts from Pixar’s highly successful film Cars. Picking up from where Planes left off, former crop-duster-turned-air-racer Dusty Crophopper (Dane Cook) is forced to retire after engine damage makes it impossible for him to race again. Not wanting to return to crop-dusting, he decides to throw himself into the dangerous world of wildfire air attack.

With the help of his mentor, Skipper (Stacy Keach) along with a team of veteran firefighters, Dusty learns what true heroism is, as he joins forces with brave individuals that put their lives on the line every day. Julie Bowen, Brad Garrett, Teri Hatcher, Ed Harris, Regina King, Wes Studi, and Curtis Armstrong also lend their voice talents.

Firefighters have gained much more acclaim since the events of 9/11, and Arizonans just recently had the one-year anniversary of the tragic Yarnell wildfire, where more than a dozen firemen lost their lives. Needless to say, Planes: Fire and Rescue plans to tug at the heartstrings of America, and it just might work.

Planes opened last August to a modest $22M, but it showed tremendous legs and finished its run with over $90M. Fire and Rescue has the benefit of being the last animated film of the entire summer, along with not having its opening diluted by a popular TV series that put a major dent in the numbers for How to Train Your Dragon 2. Looking at the rest of July and August, there really is very, very little left out there for small children to enjoy with their families, so I think that good numbers can be in store for this film.

I am going to predict nearly identical numbers for Fire and Rescue that Planes achieved, as a $22M opening sounds about right. It could finish with as few Top 5 points as three and as many as seven or eight, but it should stick around in the Top 10 for a long time (something Dragon 2 DID achieve). It will run you $15 in Ultimate and $14 in Box Office, and I obviously would only recommend it in Box Office.




Third up is The Purge: Anarchy (Universal), a hastily-made horror film that is a sequel to last year’s surprise hit The Purge. However, the director (James DeMonaco) is the only one returning from that film, as the entire cast is new for this second chapter. It will be bowing in over 2,800 theaters this weekend.

If you don’t remember the premise, it is this: in this near-future society, there is a twelve-hour period every year known as “The Purge” that purportedly gives everyone a chance to release all of its collective homicidal rage in one go, meaning that any crime committed during that period, including violent murder, is perfectly legal. Most law-abiding citizens choose to hunker down in their heavily-fortified homes and ride out the twelve hours, but that is not the case for Shane (Zack Gilford) and Liz (Kiele Sanchez), who run out of gas on the way to their sister’s house. Caught out in the open as The Purge commences, they eventually meet up with Leo (Frank Grillo), who is out to get revenge on the person who murdered his son the year before, and a mother and daughter (Carmen Ejogo and Zoe Soul) who are forced out after assailants break into their tenement. Together the group must find a way to survive the night.

(As an aside, I just can’t get past the illogic of this system: you’re telling me that I can break into my neighbors’ house, tie him to a chair, butcher his wife, and rape his kids in front of him, and in the morning everything is hunky-dory? Suppressed homicidal rage be damned, I have to figure that this system would collapse in on itself the moment some rich muckety-muck ended up on the wrong end of the violence. But oh, well, this is a movie, it doesn’t have to make sense.)

Last June, The Purge opened to a surprising $34M, but suffered monumental drops in the weeks following and only ended up with $64M in all. It is possible that Anarchy could open just as strongly and end up beating out both Planes and Sex Tape for the #2 spot, but I just can’t see that happening because 1) it’s a sequel, the premise is no longer fresh, 2) no really recognizable names in the cast (the first had Ethan Hawke and Lena Headey), and 3) this has been an abominable year for horror. I will predict numbers of $20M/$35M, which even for $10 (in either league) do not make it a good purchase. It's gotten to the point where I cannot recommend any horror movie at all until another one comes along and breaks this streak.




And now, a little bit about this weekend’s two limited-release films:

Wish I Was Here (Focus Features) ($4 Ult, $2 BO) – This comedy-drama is the second major feature film for Scrubs lead actor Zach Braff (the first being the highly-acclaimed 2004 film Garden State). In addition, Braff also co-wrote the screenplay and plays the main character, Aidan Bloom, a struggling actor, father and husband, who at 35 is still trying to find his identity; a purpose for his life. He winds up trying to home school his two children when his father can no longer afford to pay for private education and the only available public school is on its last legs. Through teaching them about life his way, Aidan gradually discovers some of the parts of himself he couldn't find. The film also stars Kate Hudson, Josh Gad, Mandy Patinkin, Jim Parsons and the up-and-coming Joey King.

Films about self-discovery and dealing with life’s foibles are fine, and it’s what one generally expects from indie films. However, unlike Garden State, critics have not lined up to praise Wish I Was Here since making its debut at Sundance. There’s a slight chance that it could break out anyway, but given its less-than-optimal theater count (sixty), I rather doubt it. Pass.




Mood Indigo (Drafthouse) ($3 Ult, $2 BO) – This film is the latest from Oscar-winning writer-director Michael Gondry (Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind), and it is an adaptation of the 1947 French novel by Boris Vian. It stars two very popular French actors, Romain Duris (Heartbreaker) and Audrey Tautou (Amelie) as Colin and Chloe, a couple who fall in love and eventually marry after meeting at a party. Sadly, Chloe becomes ill during their honeymoon, and as her health gradually deteriorates, so does Colin’s entire world. Gad Elmaleh (Midnight in Paris) and Omar Sy (The Intouchables) also co-star.

This is a tough call. It’s got a lot of talent – heck, if I recognize the names of more than two actors in a foreign film, that’s an accomplishment – and French films are often great sources of PTA. But against what is sure to be stiff competition in Dawn and Boyhood, I doubt that Mood Indigo will do much more than three or four PTA overall (just like Venus in Fur did). You may want to wait until the indie films have less compeitition.




My predictions for the weekend of July 18-20, 2014:

1. Dawn of the Planet of the Apes - $40 million
2. Sex Tape - $25 million
3. Planes: Fire and Rescue – $22 million
4. The Purge: Anarchy – $20 million
5. Transformers: Age of Extinction - $8 million

PTA: Boyhood, Dawn of the Planet of the Apes, Sex Tape, The Purge: Anarchy, Mood Indigo

Current RT/IMDb scores:

Sex Tape – N/A, N/A
Planes: Fire and Rescue – N/A, N/A
The Purge: Anarchy – N/A, N/A
Wish I Was Here – 42% (5/12 positive), 7.4 (858 votes)
Mood Indigo – 59% (13/22 positive), 6.6 (6,074 votes)


Well, that will do it for me for another week. Next week, we close out July with a very full schedule. In wide release, we have Hercules, an action film starring Dwayne Johnson, and Lucy, a sci-fi actioner featuring Scarlett Johansson and Morgan Freeman. We also have Michael Douglas comedy And Go It Goes, and Gabriel Iglesias’ stand-up comedy film The Fluffy Movie. In limited release, we have Magic in the Moonlight, the latest film from Hollywood icon Woody Allen, as well as comedy-drama Happy Christmas and A Most Wanted Man, an Anton Corbijn thriller that happens to feature one of the very last performances from Phillip Seymour Hoffman.

Celebrities with milestone birthdays this week:

Jan-Michael Vincent (Airwolf) turns 70 on 7/15
Dean Winters (Law & Order: SVU, Allstate’s “Mayhem” guy) turns 50 on 7/20
Chris Cornell (Soundgarden/Audioslave front-man) turns 50 on 7/20

Later!

[Chienfantome]

It doesn't sound good on the Italian website. I have the same fear as you, that we soon have to get back to the old way of playing until we come up with our own site. That's really too bad.

Gamewise, I used to think "Wish I was PTA films of july to get a hold on, until they announced its theater count. I'm leaving this one out now.
Mood Indigo is harder to predict. Gondry's name and the talents involved should assure a solid PTA on opening weekend, but mixed WOM and tough competition make it a fragile pick.

[numbersix]

This is very frustrating about the Italian site. Creating a Facebook game makes sense but frustrating your core base is not the way to go about things. They're risking losing 50 or so of us in doing this.

Anyway, Shryke, think your analysis for this week is spot on. With Tammy not quite doing it I can see Sex Tape faring well, and being a strong date movie. Planes should also benefit from lack of competition, and I'd be shocked to see Purge 2 be a hit. On PTA I think Mood Indigo has the best chance to earn some, but it'll be anywhere from 3-1 points.

1. Dawn of the Planet of the Apes - $35 million
2. Sex Tape - $26 million
3. Planes: Fire and Rescue – $23 million
4. The Purge: Anarchy – $19 million
5. Transformers: Age of Extinction - $8 million

[transformers2]

1.Dawn of the Planet of the Apes $41 mil
2.Sex Tape $28 mil
3.Planes: Fire and Rescue $23 mil
4.The Purge: Anarchy $15 mil
5.Transformers: Age of Extinction $10 mil

[BanksIsDaFuture]

Sex Tape won't be another Bad Teacher, at least based on pre-release marketing.

A lot of people seemed to dislike The Purge 1 so it's probable this one won't come close to the first's OW and total.

1. Dawn of The Apes - $41M
2. Sex Tape - $22M
3. Planes 2 - $18.5M
4. The Purge Anarchy - $16M
5. Transf4mers - $7M

[Geezer]

I'm going to see Sex Tape. I hate myself for it, but I still think that trailer is freaking hilarious.

[Ron Burgundy]

No idea about this weekend, seems like the will be a couple of surprises, but im fairly sure Apes 2 will get the top spot. If The Purge 2 sounds that bad, then im dropping it from every slate, but i tell you, if its comes out with a 40M OW....no theres no way

And that sounds like pretty shitty news about the site. Dam Italians are all just watching the Tour de France!

No, but really, with empire and his friends doing some great work, im not all that worried, just a little annoyed we have to resort back to the old ways.

[BrocksterDuex]

I noticed today that the round 4 slates were finally removed from the Italian site...glimmer of hope?

[Shrykespeare]

I received separate e-mails from both Mario and Manuela that they are still working on the problem. If stuff is actually happening on the site, maybe that means they are making progress.

Fingers crossed, knock on wood, hop on one foot, slap a Jorgensen.

(and kudos to anyone who figures out THAT reference.)

[BrocksterDuex]

It appears that the updates have been made...not for this past weekend, but the previous weekend. Sept movies have still not been added though.

[numbersix]

MTC Tracking

Purge 2: 32m
Sex Tape: 25m
Planes: 22m

I'm dubious about that Purge 2 figure. Considering the first had awful word of mouth and only made half its opening weekend (unlike The Conjuring which held well due to WOM), I can't see this having a similar opening. The other two figures look fine, though.

[Chienfantome]

Yeah it is very surprising...

[Shrykespeare]

It appears that the updates have been made...not for this past weekend, but the previous weekend. Sept movies have still not been added though.

Well, for the September movies to appear on the game site, I need to plug the prices into the Master List. If they are there, I will add them in a few hours when I get home from work.

[Shrykespeare]

Just got home... the September movies are still not added.

[transformers2]

That Purge tracking number is legitimately shocking.