SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 7/11

[Shrykespeare]

As expected, Transformers: Age of Extinction took a monumental tumble from its OW but still managed to win its second straight BO title against weak competition. Its $36.4M take was more than enough to trump newcomers Tammy ($21.1M) and Deliver Us From Evil ($9.5M), while holdovers 22 Jump Street ($9.4M) and How to Train Your Dragon 2 ($8.7M) rounded out the Top 5. Kiddie adventure movie Earth to Echo ended up without a chair, bringing in only $8.2M and finishing in sixth place.

About the best thing you can say about this summer’s crop of big-budget films is that a lot of them started strong. Three of the May films opened above $90M, and just two weeks ago, Transformers barely cleared nine digits on its OW. And though none of those four films will likely come close to $250M overall, all of them were able to rack up double-digit figures in Top 5 points. Keep in mind, folks, that the Ultimate game has FOUR categories, of which Box Office is only one. It’s easy to look at a film’s less-than-expected numbers and bemoan its fate in the Box Office game, but in Ultimate, it’s a different story. That’s why it is always a good strategy to pick films with good User Ratings going in, because that way if it disappoints, it won’t eat you alive in every category.

In 2011, ten years after a financially successful but horribly-received attempt by Tim Burton to revive the classic Planet of the Apes franchise, director Rupert Wyatt brought his own version of the story to theaters. Rise of the Planet of the Apes, starring James Franco, not only brought in a respectable dollar amount ($176M), but was also universally lauded by critics (89% on RT). And by the looks of things, the sequel to that film, entitled Dawn of the Planet of the Apes (Fox) may post even better numbers.

Cloverfield director Matt Reeves has taken the reins from Wyatt for this second chapter, which takes place roughly ten years after the first film ended. The pandemic that had just started to spread at the end of the first film ended up wiping out most of humanity, and the few that remain live in fear of annihilation at the hands of the genetically involved apes, led by Caesar (Andy Serkis). The humans’ leader, Malcolm (Jason Clarke) forms a bond with Caesar, hoping to form a lasting peace with the simians, but there are those on both sides, including Dreyfus (Gary Oldman), who want nothing more than to wipe out the other side and establish themselves as the dominant species once and for all. Keri Russel, Kodi Smit-McPhee and Enrique Murciano co-star.

What to do? Prediction has become a double-edged sword this summer… every major film, it seems, has the elbow room to break out and become a smash hit, and yet none really have. Really, apart from Maleficent, the only films that have met or exceeded expectations this summer have been comedies (Neighbors and 22 Jump Street). So, all things being equal, what can we reasonably expect from this film? In 2011, Rise took advantage of a weak late July schedule, opening August with a bang. It earned seventeen Top 5 points, eleven PTA, and earned $176M overall against no competition at all (save The Help). It would be ballsy, given the downward spiral of summer films’ fortunes lately, to predict similar numbers for Dawn, but then again…

Most of the factors that hampered all of the summer films that were supposed to explode simply don’t apply to Dawn. The May films opened too close to together and ended up stumbling over each other. Dragon 2’s opening was dampened by the DreamWorks’ TV series that bridged the gap between the two films, making it less of an event. And Transformers is dying quickly because of awful reviews and WOM. As I said, Dawn, though a sequel, is a highly anticipated one, with fantastic early reviews and little to no competition for at least its first three weeks.

I fully expect Dawn to open well above $50M in its first three days, and maybe, just maybe, excellent WOM will keep its subsequent drops small, especially as there is nothing opening in its genre until Guardians of the Galaxy. There is certainly nothing else for the rest of July that even has a $30M OW in it. That means that Dawn will win its first two weekends without much effort, and will probably finish with at least thirteen Top 5 points before it’s done. It could also earn seven or so PTA points, to go along with a tremendous Rating. As for its Box Office, I’ll predict $65M/$195M, which would be about right for a multiplier between five and six, given its price tag ($34 Ultimate, $33 Box Office).

Is there a chance that Dawn could be a major disappointment along with all the others? Of course there is. But when building a roster, you have to have at least a couple of titles with some potential oomph, and outside of Dawn and Guardians, there just aren’t any. Like, at all. I honestly don’t see how you could leave this title off of your slates.




There are three limited films on the docket this week, and the one with the most PTA potential by a country mile is Boyhood (IFC), a drama from director Richard Linklater (Before Midnight) that took twelve years to finish. Yes, you read that right. The primary cast for this film was selected and filming began in 2002, and Linklater would intermittently reunite the cast every so often and film another section of the film, until finally wrapping up in 2013. Wow. Few directors ever display THAT level of patience.

The central character is young Mason (Ellar Coltrane), who is in first grade at the time the story begins, and the film basically tells the story of his life up through his senior year of high school. Along the way, his relationship with his divorced parents, Mason Sr. and Olivia (Ethan Hawke and Patricia Arquette), his sister Samantha (Lorelei Linklater, Richard’s daughter), and the world around him progress.

To shoot a film in this way almost makes it seem like a documentary or an anthology, but whatever the case, every critic that has seen the film has loved it, with no exceptions (thus far). It made its premiere at Sundance earlier this year, and has also won awards at the film festivals in Berlin, Seattle and SXSW, most of which went to Linklater. On paper, this would appear to be a crowning achievement for Linklater, one that may result in Oscar noms next year.

But for now, this is not a film you can afford to leave off your rosters. In a world where the big films fail to live up to expectations, one must have great indie films to balance them out, and Boyhood is one of those films. It’s not cheap ($6 in Ultimate), but given its pedigree, its reception, its insanely high User Rating, its theater count (six this week, eighteen more next week), I find it hard to believe that Boyhood won’t cop at LEAST ten PTA points. It may have some competition in two weeks when Woody Allen’s latest film Magic in the Moonlight opens, but otherwise, this film looks like pure gold.




And now, a little bit about this weekend’s two other limited-release films:

The Empty Hours (Strand) ($3 Ult, $1 BO) – This romantic drama comes to the U.S. from Mexico, and director Aaron Fernandez Lesur. It tells the story of 17-year-old Sebastian (Kristyan Ferrer), who has had to take over proprietorship of his uncle’s cozy rent-by-the-hour motel. On his own most of the time, he strikes up a relationship with Miranda (Adriana Paz), a regular who comes to the motel to meet her married lover… who usually keeps her waiting. With no one to talk to but each other, it’s only a matter of time before the sparks start to fly.

Under normal circumstances, I might be inclined to recommend this intriguing-looking drama. But against such towering competition in both the wide- and limited-release categories, I can’t imagine much more than three PTA total for The Empty Hours, and that’s assuming that it even reports its income at all. I can’t give you a definitely theater count either, so I would probably just play it safe and pass on this one.




Land Ho! (Sony Classics) ($3 Ult, $1 BO) – This adventure comedy tells the tale of Mitch (Earl Lynn Nelson) and Colin (Paul Eenhoorn), two sixty-something ex-brothers-in-law who hope to reclaim their lost youth by taking a road trip through Iceland. Along the way, they pass through the nightclubs of Reykjavik, rugged campgrounds, and trendy day-spas.

From the trailer, it looks endearing enough, and God willing, we’ll all be in good enough shape when we’re that age to indulge what’s left of our adventurous spirit, but I just don’t see “PTA giant” in this film. The best thing I can say is that it’s User Rating is very good, and if you need a $3 film to fill out your studio, you could do a lot worse than Land Ho! There is a small chance that it could earn you a couple of points, and the reviews are good enough, so why not?




My predictions for the weekend of July 4-6, 2014:

1. Dawn of the Planet of the Apes - $65 million
2. Transformers: Age of Extinction - $16 million
3. Tammy - $12 million
4. 22 Jump Street – $6 million
5. How to Train Your Dragon 2 - $6 million

PTA (May/Jun): Boyhood, Dawn of the Planet of the Apes, Transformers: Age of Extinction, Begin Again, Tammy

PTA (Jul): Boyhood, Dawn of the Planet of the Apes, Tammy, The Empty Hours, Land Ho!


Current RT/IMDb scores:

Dawn of the Planet of the Apes – 95% (18/19 positive), 8.8 (1,742 votes)
Boyhood – 100% (32/32 positive), 8.9 (2,326 votes)
The Empty Hours – N/A, 6.3 (61 votes)
Land Ho! – 73% (8/11 positive), 7.6 (76 votes)

Well, that will do it for me for another week. Next week, after weeks and weeks of jockeying around the schedule, it looks like there will be five films to talk about next week. At the top we have Planes: Fire and Rescue, Disney’s follow-up to last year’s surprise animated hit, as well as Sex Tape, an adult comedy starring Jason Segel and Cameron Diaz. Also on tap is The Purge: Anarchy, a sequel to last year’s horror hit. In limited release we have Wish I Was Here, a comedy-drama starring Josh Gad and Kate Hudson, as well as Mood Indigo, French-Belgian drama that is the latest from director Michael Gondry.

Celebrities with milestone birthdays this week:

Jeffrey Tambor (Arrested Development, The Hangover) turns 70 on 7/8
Alexis Dziena (Fool’s Gold, When in Rome) turns 30 on 7/8
Courtney love (singer) turns 50 on 7/9
Rachael Taylor (Transformers, Shutter) turns 30 on 7/11
Natalie Martinez (Death Race, End of Watch) turns 30 on 7/12

Later!

[numbersix]

I'm going a little higher on Planet of the Apes. The first performed way better than expected, and after the bad WOM of Transformers 4 this could feel like a breath of fresh air. I'm going to say 70m with a total of 200m

MTC tracking has it at 64m, RS at low 60s

By the way, the MMG game still lists And So It Goes for this weekend.

As for PTA, Boyhood will be the obvious winner. The other two I can't see doing very well.

1. Dawn of the Planet of the Apes - $71 million
2. Transformers: Age of Extinction - $17 million
3. Tammy - $10 million
4. 22 Jump Street – $6 million
5. How to Train Your Dragon 2 - $5.5 million

[Shrykespeare]

By the way, the MMG game still lists And So It Goes for this weekend.

I know, I've informed them. Throw it on the pile of stuff they need to get done:

1. Five weeks of updates
2. Date Changes
3. Adding the September movies
4. Archiving six months of completed leagues

[BrocksterDuex]

[Shrykespeare]

Not much to say until the numbers start coming in, I guess..



Official Theater Counts

Dawn of the Planet of the Apes - 3,967
Boyhood - 5
Land Ho! - 4

Begin Again - expands to 939




Estimates for next week

Planes: Fire and Rescue - 3,600
Sex Tape - 3,000
The Purge: Anarchy - 2,800+
Wish I Was Here - 60

[Spectre]

Boyhood is Certified Fresh at 100% after 77 reviews with a 9.3 RT rating. God I hope IFC gives this the wide release it deserves.

[Ron Burgundy]

So Boyhood's expansion over the next few weeks will be interesting. It may not do Grand Budapest-like business but $20M aint out of the question. The thing is, will it connect to mass audiences like it does with the critics.

The Apes movie might be the first tentpole movie ill watch since Cap2. Ill probably wait for a few (first hand) reviews first, but i would like to see this one on the big screen

[Chienfantome]

There is hope for mankind if Boyhood can expand and find a wide audience. But I'm doubtful. It will kill on limited release though.

[silversurfer19]

With a runtime over two and a half hours, I doubt many multiplexes will be tossing out the big summer blockbusters just as schools are finishing for a small indie drama, no matter how good the reviews. It will take up too many screenings with it's length, more likely they will stick with just one very long film for the near future, and that will be Transformers. Just don't see many dropping one of Transformers, Dragons or Apes to accomodate it. At least the art houses will make great business as I imagine it will hang around for a long time such is the buzz.

[Wrestler]

Don't be too sure about that Surfer. Run time on a movie makes no bearing on if it gets booked or not, especially now that the us is basically all digital. Rather than a 2hr 30min movie only getting a few shows a day in 1 screen we alternate it with a 1hr 30min movie on 2 screens so that they can both play as much as a 2 hr movie. Also on a related note; my theater in little ol Terre Haute IN is getting snowpiercer this weekend so there is some hope for those 2 1/2 hour smaller movies getting screen time with transformers out.


DofPofA opened to 4.1m thursday night shows. About half of the recent 90m openers, but a big more than the 3.6m of the similarly themed/dated WWZ last year that went on to open to 66.4. 70-75m seems doable this weekend.

[silversurfer19]

Not saying it won't expand, just that it won't ever go wide. In the peak of summer of 2.5 hour drama is not going to be a movie pulling in the big crowds, so I imagine most of the big multiplexes won't show it and thus never go wide enough for a nationwide expansion. Likely it will expand to most art house cinemas or smaller cinemas in most states, but I'd be surprised if it ever went wider than say 1000 locations.

[Spectre]

Not saying it won't expand, just that it won't ever go wide. In the peak of summer of 2.5 hour drama is not going to be a movie pulling in the big crowds, so I imagine most of the big multiplexes won't show it and thus never go wide enough for a nationwide expansion. Likely it will expand to most art house cinemas or smaller cinemas in most states, but I'd be surprised if it ever went wider than say 1000 locations.

On the Boyhood website it says it's expanding nationwide the week after its release. Now... what kind of numbers nationwide means to IFC who typically don't deal with a huge distribution, who knows? I've read they're planning to give it a legit Oscar campaign and keep it around for a long time but I read that a while ago.

I don't know about the perceived lack of appeal, I just get a different vibe from Boyhood. It has insane critic reviews which will generate WoM which I feel like they're leaning heavily on (now up to 95 reviews at 100% fresh), it has a "gimmick" that makes it unique/special and it's going to hit nostalgia hard for a lot of people. I've seen it talked about on national TV (and I rarely if EVER see indies mentioned like that) and in places I usually don't expect to see indies mentioned.

If IFC actually puts money behind it and realizes that it's a truly special film concept, I think it has amazing potential. Whether they do or not is the issue IMO. At the very least, they'd better expand it out by me so I can see it.

[Shrykespeare]

Friday Estimates

Dawn of the Planet of the Apes, $27.7M
Transformers: Age of Extinction, $4.8M
Tammy, $4.0M
22 Jump Street, $2.0M
Earth to Echo, $1.8M
How to Train Your Dragon 2, $1.7M
Deliver Us From Evil, $1.6M
Maleficent, $1.2M



Weekend Projections:

Dawn of the Planet of the Apes, $70M
Transformers: Age of Extinction, $16M
Tammy, $13.1M
22 Jump Street, $6.3M
Earth to Echo, $5.7M
How to Train Your Dragon 2, $5.6M
Deliver Us From Evil, $4.5M
Maleficent, $4.0M
Begin Again, $2.7M
Jersey Boys, $2.4M



This gives only Dawn a PTA over $5K among the wide releases, which leaves the door wide open for all the indie films. Boyhood will need a PTA over $18K to beat Dawn, which shouldn't be a problem.

If Echo beats out Dragon, it will earn a Top 5 points after missing the Top 5 last week.

This puts Jersey Boys over $40M, something no Clint Eastwood-directed-but-not-starred-in film has done in a long while.

This gives Jump Street eighteen Top 5 points, more than any summer film so far (Transformers has 14).

[silversurfer19]

Not a bad weekend for Dawn, but I don't think it hints at doing anything above expected come its gross numbers. Which I'm okay with as I dropped it from most leagues in favour of GotG, which while I feel may well make less money, also has the possibility to be huge if audiences catch on. Worth the extra dollars imo for that gamble.

Deadline is suggesting Boyhood should end the 3 day weekend with a PTA around $64,000, so it looks good for a nice few weekends of PTA points if it expands properly.

Glad I placed 22 Jump Street on a few slates as by having taken HTTYD on most, I need those extra top 5s and dollars to try and bridge the gaps, though it may not be good enough in a couple of Super Leagues.

[Shrykespeare]

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