Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 2/14

[transformers2]

Super Bowl weekend tends to be one of the saddest of the year at the box office and 2025 was absolutely no exception.

Both low-ish budget new releases (Heart Eyes and Love Hurts) opened in the single digits, the top holdovers (Dog Man, Companion) fell way harder than expected (60%+!) and the only movie in the top 8 that dropped less than 50% was none other than Mufasa: The Lion King (-36%) in its 8th week of release. Whatever limited signs of life there were all came from the limited market where Armand, Parthenope and the IMAX-exclusive run of Becoming Led Zeppelin all posted PTA's of $7+k. Remarkably, this largely dismal weekend still ended up being the best Super Bowl weekend for total BO since 2020 as it narrowly edged the 2022 frame that was led by a trio of wide openers (Death at the Nile, Marry Me, Blacklight). The good news for the industry is that shit is going to start pointing up for at least the next couple of weeks starting this weekend.


Wide Releases:
As we've seen time and time again over the years, Hollywood will be banking on a superhero movie to break a box office cold streak. Can something like Captain America: Brave New World (Disney/Marvel) deliver in that role? Yes, but it's far from the layup that it was not too long ago.

The first feature length project featuring Anthony Mackie's Sam Wilson as Captain America is entering a much different climate than the one we were in when he first inherited the shield from Chris Evans' Steve Rodgers in the closing moments of Avengers: Endgame nearly 6 years ago. The MCU has hit a wall over the last couple of years as the Multiverse Saga has failed to captivate audiences in the same way that Infinity Saga did from 2008-19. Since the true downward turning point for the megafranchise began on this very weekend 2 years ago with the release of Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania, only the nostalgia-fueled Deadpool & Wolverine and beloved trilogy capper Guardians of the Galaxy Vol.3 have delivered the kind of eye-popping grosses that were the longtime MCU norm. While nobody with their feet firmly planted on Earth will be expecting Brave New World to match the numbers of either of those films, it does have a pretty strong chance of becoming the third highest grossing MCU film of the last few years.

Tracking for the 3-day weekend currently has Brave New World coming in at $80-90 mil-which would put it ahead of Eternals ($71 mil) and Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings ($75.4 mil) but below the aforementioned Quantumania ($106.1 mil). That would rep a pretty solid start for the $180-200 mil production and provide the industry with the juice it hasn't had since the initial post-New Year's frame.

The real test however for Brave New World will be WOM. As many of you know, Brave New World underwent multiple rounds of reshoots that delayed its release by nearly a full calendar year. The largely lukewarm reactions from comic book movie-friendly pundits following its premiere last night aren't a great sign that this won't be Quantumania 2.0 in terms of staying power after a solid opening, but maybe Harrison Ford's Red Hulk, the reemergence of several characters from 2008's Incredible Hulk and a return to the spy/political thriller genre that drove 2014's The Winter Solider will provide enough good will to keep it afloat past this weekend.

Regardless of how it fares, Brave New World is really the only big show in town for this season and there's really no outcome short of a Marvels-esque run that would make it a bad pick-especially with how barren the next several weeks are.
Price: $42 ULT/$47 BO
Predictions:$70-90 mil OW ($80-100 mil 4-day)/10-17 PTA/13-28 Top 5/high 5 to low 6 IMDb/$165-$325 mil total BO
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: In a season that is deeply lacking in blockbuster titles, it's a must-have in both formats.



Break out your Duffel coat and marmalade sandwiches America because everybody's favorite talking British bear is back. Paddington in Peru (Sony/Columbia) sees the titular character (once again voiced by Ben Whishaw) embarking on an adventure to Peru to find his beloved Aunt Lisa (Imelda Staunton)-whose gone missing under mysterious circumstances. Hugh Bonneville, Emily Mortimer, Julie Walters and Jim Broadbent are also back for the third installment while Olivia Colman, Antonio Banderas and Hayley Atwell headline the new additions to the cast.

Paddington in Peru released in the UK to commercial success and solid but not overly enthusiastic reviews back in November, and has already earned over $100 mil WW before launching its domestic run. Despite Paddington 2 making over $30 mill less than its predecessor stateside, Paddington in Peru should do fine business. All of the love Paddington 2 has received in recent years has considerably boosted the stock of the character with audiences and Sony's decision to move it from January to this weekend currently looks really smart as it now has an opportunity to own the pure family market for a full month now following Dog Man's collapse last weekend. A $50+ mil haul seems like a real possibility, which would be a nice feather in Paddington's red cap.
Price: $9 ULT/$9 BO
Predictions:$10-18 mil OW ($13-$23 mil 4-day)/2-6 PTA/8-14 Top 5/mid to high 6 IMDb/$30-65 mil total BO
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: While the ceiling is a bit sketchy, it's cheap enough to make for a solid, high-floor pick.


Limited Release:
Universal Language (Oscilloscope) is an absurdist hyperlink comedy featuring four different surreal stories about Iranian-Canadians that eventually intersect that debuted at Cannes to raves last May and ended up being making the Best International Feature shortlist as the official selection for Canada. While it didn't make much during its Oscar-qualifying run in December ($4,550) and a weird comedy in a foreign language is about as tough of a sell as you can possibly have in arthouse cinema, Oscilloscope should be giving it a small enough run where it can steal some PTA points before it quickly fades away.
Price: $2 ULT/$1 BO
Predictions: $15-35k OW/2-6 PTA/0 Top 5/low to mid 7 IMDb/$35-65k total BO
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: If you're in the market for a $2 ULT pick, you could do a lot worse than this.


Weekend Predictions:
1.Captain America: Brave New World $80 mil ($90 mil 4-day)
2.Paddington in Peru $14 mil ($18 mil 4-day)
3.Dog Man $7.5 mil ($9.5 mil 4-day)
4.Heart Eyes $4 mil ($5 mil 4-day)
5.Love Hurts $2.5 mi ($3 mil 4-day)

PTA: Captain America: Brave New World, Paddington in Peru, Parthenope, Universal Language, Dog Man

Tune in next week when six breaks down a small slate featuring Osgood Perkins' Longlegs follow-up and Hollywood's latest Zachary Levi jumpscare.

[Buscemi2]

Brave New World is getting destroyed by critics (44 on Metacritic). And it looked cheap from the trailers. I could see audiences passing on this one as Chris Evans isn't in it.

At this point, the comic book movie might be dead and despite what Snydercut and the Internet wants you to believe, Superman's not going to save it in July.

[numbersix]

Ouch, those reviews are going to hurt it. It's going to be another Eternals where it will drop steeply.

Boosch might be right about superhero movies, whereas it can still do good numbers as TV series.

[Chienfantome]

Superhero movies were bound to tire audiences at some point, and it can only be a good thing.

[transformers2]

Superhero movies aren't going anywhere. It's only the days of 90% of them being hits that are "dead".

[Buscemi2]

Only on account of the industry not knowing what to replace them with. Making movies for terminally online filmbros hasn't been working.

[transformers2]

Preview totals:
Captain America: Brave New World $12 mil
Paddington in Peru $600k

Brave New World's PostTrak exits are at 3 stars, which is in line with Quantumania, The Marvels, Eternals and Thor: Love & Thunder.

[Buscemi2]

Cinemascore

Paddington in Peru: A (was honestly expecting a B+ based on how dead the crowd at my showing was)
Captain America: B-

[StarLord123]

B- is the lowest MCU cinemascore to date. The trio of Eternals, Quantumania, and Marvels all got a B.

[transformers2]

Weekend Estimates:
Captain America: Brave New World $88.5 mil
Paddington in Peru $13 mil
Heart Eyes $10 mil
Dog Man $9.7 mil
Ne Zha 2 $7.3 mil
Love Hurts $4.4 mil
Mufasa: The Lion King $4.2 mil
One of Them Days $3 mil
Companion $1.9 mil

PTA:
Captain America: Brave New World $21.6k
Universal Language $20.6k
Paddington in Peru $3.3k
Heart Eyes $3.2k
Dog Man $2.9k

[transformers2]

Weekend Actuals:
1.Captain America: Brave New World $89.8 mil
2.Paddington in Peru $12.7 mil
3.Heart Eyes $9.9 mil
4.Dog Man $9.8 mil
5.Ne Zha 2 $7.3 mil
6.Mufasa: The Lion King $4.24 mil
7.Love Hurts $4.19 mil
8.One of Them Days $3 mil
9.Companion $1.84 mil
10.Becoming Led Zeppelin $1.75 mil

-Universal Language $41,120

PTA:
1.Captain America: Brave New World $21,886
2.Universal Language $20,560 (2 theaters)
3.Paddington in Peru $3,281
4.Heart Eyes $3,186
5.Dog Man $2,936

[StarLord123]

Supposedly it very narrowly hit $100m for the 4-day weekend. Legs probably won’t be great, but I’m not sure if they’ll be worse than Quantumania, given how lightweight the next few weeks are compared to the ridiculously packed March 2023.

[transformers2]

$101,021,014 was its 4-day actual. Yesterday and Sunday's drops were literally the exact same as Quantumania's, so it could very well end up mirroring its run despite going against a significantly weaker late February/March slate.

[Chienfantome]

Heart Eyes took a good profit out of Valentine's Day, +19% from opening weekend.

[Buscemi2]

It helped from there being no romantic movies out at the moment. Filmbros truly killed this genre, it seems like.