SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 5/17

[numbersix]

We’re about half-way through the latest game of Ultimate and Box-Office, so now’s a good time to analyse your slate and see what can be salvaged. If you picked Fall Guy in BO, for example, you may be in trouble. Last week saw solid numbers from the latest Apes film, with an unexpected $58m opening. “Apes Still Strong” should be the headline. Will that be the only pleasant surprise? With no obvious Barbenheimer coming out this summer, are there still opportunities for slate-winning picks?





Gunning for top spot this weekend is IF (Paramount), an acronym for Imaginary Friends. This is the latest film from John “Jim Halpert” Krasinski, who wowed audiences with A Quiet Place a few years ago. Here, he’s aiming for a younger audience with this family flick about a young girl who can see people’s long-lost imaginary friends, and teams up with her quirky neighbour to reunite these invisible beings with their grown-up pals. It’s got a Pixar vibe to it, although it’s live action, and features Ryan Reynolds and Krasinski himself, as well as some big names doing voices (Steve Carell, Emily Blunt, Matt Damon etc). Maybe a few years ago this could be the hit of the summer, but this original IP doesn’t seem to be breaking out, and perhaps is suffering from Paramount’s problems. It could, however, have a great WOM and hold strong, despite the competition next week from that lasagna-scoffing feline.

IF should win this weekend, with an opening anywhere from $25-$35m, and that hold should help it cross $100m. It’s possible it could do even bigger business, but I’m cautious. In Ultimate you could get 10 T5 points, 4-6 PTA, and a IMDB score in the 7s. That’s not enough to anchor your slate, with its $26 price requires, so I’d skip it. In BO it’s going to cost you $28 and that’s only worth it if it can end up with around $140-150m. That’s a big IF.




It feels like we’re being inundated with horrors this year, with The Strangers – Chapter One (Lionsgate) out this weekend. This gets slightly complicated. It’s the third film in the horror franchise, but acts as a prequel to the first but it’s also the start of a standalone trilogy. The premise sounds pretty standard – innocent and always hot folks get terrorized by masked strangers. It’s a strange choice to exploit this IP, given the sequel The Stranger: Prey at Night made only $24m domestic. So this feels like a bit of a desperate move by Lionsgate, particularly with their plans to release this new trilogy in theatres across the next 12 months. With so many horrors out at the moment (and coming out across the summer, from both studios and indies), I can’t see this rising above the bloody melee. Expect a sub $10m opening, probably closer to 5. With a big weekend next week, that limits its potential for Ultimate, and the optimistic $20m it could earn in total makes it pointless to pick up for $6.




Also coming out is Back to Black (Focus), the Amy Winehouse biopic directed by Sam “He Was Legal!!!” Taylor-Johnson. We all probably know the rise-to-fame story of the now iconic singer-songwriter, whose life was lost to narcotics. Newbie Marisa Abela plays Amy, with support from strong British talent such as Jack O’Connell and Lesley Manville. The reviews have been saying you know it’s no good, and yet I can’t help but wonder if this is being underestimated. Winehouse was huge in the US, and despite the poor reviews the film is performing well in the UK. It won’t be a Bohemian Rhapsody or an Elvis, but this could be a sleeper hit. I’m expecting a $5-10m opening weekend (depending on theatre count, which is estimated to be around 2000 as of writing) and a strong hold across the summer. 2-3 T5 points, 2-3 PTA points, a mid 6 IMDB score, and a cume that could go anywhere from $15-30m. If you’ve a $6 gap in your slate and you already have A Quiet Place: Day One, then this may help yourself to win a losing game.




Finally, limited release Babes (Neon) is a raucous comedy about a wild single woman who finds herself pregnant and in need to help from her sensible parent pal. Starring and written by Ilana Glazer, it could be an episode of Broad City. But the reviews have been positive so far since its SXSW premiere, and it could pull in decent numbers. Coming out in a handful of theatres this weekend, expect it to win the PTA crown, although its rapid expansion could hamper it. $4 for 5-6 PTA points and a low 6 IMDB score isn’t too bad, though, so it’s worth a shot. It probably won’t earn enough cash to justify $2 in BO, however.



Predictions for the weekend

1. IFs no Butts - $29m
2. Apes Strong together with Micky Mouse- $25m
3. Fail Guy - $7.5m
4. Back in the Black with a New Soundtrack - $7m
5. The Strangers- Chapter 13 - $6m


PTA: Babes, IF, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Back to Black, I Saw the TV Glow


Next week is a big holiday, so families will be treated to another iteration of Garfield, and another iteration of Furiosa, as well as Sight and Songs of Earth. More on that next week.

[Buscemi2]

Babes to me looks like a long episode of Broad City and the last time someone tried that (Rough Night), it bombed. Babes probably opens decently but I expect it to die in its expansion.

As for the wide openers, I'd go a little lower on IF. It seems puzzling that Krasinski would follow his Quiet Place series with a family comedy. And it's going to be a matter of time before audiences tire of Reynolds playing the same character over and over. It might hold well in later weeks but I don't see it as a high-priority title for families.

The other two are DOA. Few asked for a new Strangers trilogy while Amy Winehouse was never really known for her music in the US. It feels like Americans only became aware of her work when the documentary on her life came out but that only grossed $8 million domestically, a great total for a documentary but not a mainstream hit. I Saw the TV Glow expands this week to at least a semi-wide release but who knows if that gets seen in smaller markets by anyone other than the "A24 never releases a bad movie" crowd.

[transformers2]

Agree with six on all 4 titles. The Strangers has gotten a decent push by Lionsgate's standards with some successful viral marketing stunts and ad placements during NBA playoff broadcasts, but I doubt that will be enough for it to exceed its high single digit tracking figures.

[numbersix]

Winehouse had a huge hit in the US with Rehab, and Back to Black reached #2 in the album charts. She was more popular than you'd think, and she's constantly being referenced by contemporary singers. If the doc can do $8m, the biopic can do way more.

[Buscemi2]

The first reviews on IF have come out and it's not very good. Not sure if audiences will have the same thoughts but based on the reviews that have been released, it suggests that it's a film that has no idea what it's trying to be.

Also, I learned George Clooney voices a character and Michael Bay's company produced the film. I'm surprised Paramount didn't mention either in the ad campaign.

[Buscemi2]

American critics are trashing Back to Black, with only semi-noted contrarian Mick LaSalle and a few "we like everything" critics giving it a positive review. It's seems like it's been a while since a biopic got hated by critics but then I remember Bob Marley: One Love was only three months ago.

[transformers2]

Preview totals:
IF $1.75 mil
The Strangers: Chapter 1 $1.2 mil
Back to Black $375k

[numbersix]

That's bad for IF. But decent for The Strangers.

[BanksIsDaFuture]

Amy Winehouse was never really known for her music in the US

The movie is going to bomb (good because it's a slap in the face to the memory of Amy Winehouse), but this is a crazy thing to say.

[Buscemi2]

During her lifetime, Americans only knew Amy for two things: being the singer of Rehab and her constant legal issues. You never heard her songs on the radio and she was always overshadowed by the latest American acts (remember, this is when Katy Perry was essentially guaranteed a #1 song every time she had a new single thanks to the constant backing of her label). Instead, you only knew about what she was arrested for or her latest stint in rehab. Until she died, most Americans viewed her very negatively and never had heard any other song from Back in Black as they only knew her as tabloid fodder.

The impact of Amy's music has been felt in the US in the last decade but when she was alive, her music was close to the last thing anyone thought about when you heard her name.

[Buscemi2]

Cinemascore:

IF: A
Back to Black: B+
The Strangers: Chapter 1: C

[transformers2]

Weekend Estimates:
IF $35 mil
Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes $26 mil
The Strangers: Chapter 1 $12 mil
The Fall Guy $8.5 mil
Challengers/Back to Black $2.9 mil
Tarot $2 mil
Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire $1.7 mil
The Blue Angels $1.3 mil
Unsung Hero $1.1 mil

PTA:
Babes $14.3k
IF $8.7k
Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes $6.4k
The Strangers: Chapter 1 $4.2k
The Fall Guy $2.2k

[Buscemi2]

That Blue Angels number is even more impressive when you realize it only played matinees.

[transformers2]

Weekend Actuals:
1.IF $33.7 mil
2.Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes $25.5 mil
3.The Strangers: Chapter 1 $11.8 mil (finally, Night Swim has been unseated as 2024's top horror opener!!!)
4.The Fall Guy $8.4 mil
5.Challengers $2.9 mil
6.Back to Black $2.8 mil
7.Tarot $2 mil
8.Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire $1.7 mil
9.The Blue Angels $1.4 mil
10.Civil War $1.04 mil
(Unsung Hero and I Saw the TV Glow also narrowly cleared $1 mil)

-Babes $163,130

PTA:
1.Babes $13,594 (12 theaters)
2.IF $8,343
3.Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes $6,245
4.The Strangers: Chapter 1 $4,140
5.The Fall Guy $2,172

-Back to Black $1,411

1st standings update will be up tomorrow