Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 6/24

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Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 6/24

Post by transformers2 »

Pixar's return to the big screen didn't quite go as planned or hoped.

Despite posting the best debut for an animated film ($50.6 mil) during COVID by over $20 mil, Lightyear was still a major disappointment for the animation juggernaut that was hoping to return to the world of theatrical with a bang after being forced to release their previous 3 titles on Disney+. It failed to beat out holdover Jurassic World Dominion-which hauled in $59 mil in its sophomore frame and sits at just under $250 mil under through 9 days of release-for the top spot and wasn't even able to make half of what Toy Story 4 ($120.9 mil) made in its debut on the same weekend 3 years ago, which makes this another case of a major IP spin-off failing to generate an enthusiasm level that's anywhere near any of its main franchise entries.

Elsewhere, the big story was the continued jaw-dropping success of Top Gun: Maverick. The Tom Cruise pic took home $44 mil in its fourth weekend of release, which is just 15% off from its gross last weekend. It currently stands at $466 mil and there's no evidence that it will slow down in the coming weeks. When the dust settles on 2022, this very well could be the highest grossing movie of the year.

On the limited front, Penelope Cruz/Antonio Banderas-starrer Official Competition got off to a solid start in NYC/LA-securing $34,000 from 4 theaters ($8,500 PTA). The Spanish satire expands nationwide this week, so it's highly unlikely that it will earn any additional PTA points.


Wide Releases:
Traditionally, music biopics have a high floor and low ceiling. In the past decade, Straight Outta Compton and Bohemian Rhapsody are the only certified smash hits in the lot while Get on Up and Respect have the unfortunate distinction of being the only truly commercially unsuccessful exceptions to this rule. Will Elvis (Warner Brothers) fall in line with the standard respectable yet not overly noteworthy performances of films in this subgenre or will it follow the lead of its subject and shake things up? Honestly, I have no fucking clue.

Despite my trepidation towards making a firm prediction on Elvis's fate (thanks a lot Top Gun!!!!), I'm confident that it won't be a complete bomb. Elvis' music has enough broad commercial appeal to ensure that a fair amount of people make their way to the theater to see the dramatized version of his life story and the reasonably strong reviews ensure that some non-Elvis fanatics will also be in attendance. Aside from that, I've got a million questions about it that can't be firmly answered right now.

Is it capable of destroying its tracking numbers by wildly overindexing in the South, Midwest and Southwest like Top Gun did? Will people end being turned off by Baz Luhrmann's maximalist style or will they be enchanted by it like the Cannes audience was? Can it be the movie that finally gets older audiences to return to theaters and if not, does Elvis' music have enough appeal among the 35 and under crowd for it to still make money? The answers to these questions will largely dictate if Warner Brothers has a unicorn hit on their hands or just another run-of-the-mill music biopic performer that won't make much of an impact on their balance sheet at the end of the year.
Price: $6 ULT/$6 BO
Predictions: $32-55 mil OW/3-5 PTA/3-5 Top 5/(Total BO: $80-160 mil)
Worth Putting On Your Slate?: Yes


After it received a very warm response at last fall's Fantastic Fest in Austin and Beyond Fest in LA, The Black Phone (Universal) got pushed from a pretty mundane early February slot to this prime summer date. While at the time this felt like a smart move considering Universal and Blumhouse's strong track record of launching successful horror titles, this move might come back to bite them in the ass. The top of the marketplace is suddenly very crowded and if something is going to get lost in the shuffle, it seems like its going to be the R-rated horror movie about a serial child kidnapper/murderer and the ghosts of his past victims attempting to help his most recent one escape before he joins them in death. Will The Black Phone still do fine? Most likely, yes. There arguably hasn't been a fully mainstream, straight-up horror release since Scream back in January and the buzz surrounding the movie itself and Ethan Hawke's performance as the aptly named The Grabber will surely bring out the genre diehards. However, if Universal had either released it earlier in the year or pushed it back to late July or early August, it very well could've made more money.
Price: $4 ULT/$4 BO
Predictions $15-23 mil OW/1-2 PTA/1-2 Top 5 (Total BO: $40-65 mil)
Worth Putting On Your Slate?: In most cases, yes.


Limited Release:
Marcel the Shell With Shoes On (A24) isn't in the game, but I figured I'd offer a quick prediction anyways. Even with the true platform release A24 is giving it and very good reviews its received, I just don't think it can make more than $10-15 mil. To put it simply, there just doesn't seem to be a clear audience for it. The people who were kids when the shorts were popular are mostly 16-20 now, A24's core audience (people in their mid 20's to mid 30's) are a bit too old to be enamored with the Marcel shorts and it seems way too niche/weird for families to see it over Minions, Lightyear or even Paws of Fury-which opens on the weekend of its wide expansion.


Weekend Predictions:
1.Elvis $46 mil
2.Lightyear $32 mil
3.Jurassic World Dominion $30 mil
4.Top Gun: Maverick $27 mil
5.The Black Phone $18 mil

PTA: Elvis, Lightyear, Top Gun: Maverick, The Black Phone, Jurassic World Dominion

Tune in next week when six previews a slate that features a British period comedy, the latest from John Michael McDonagh and the long-awaited return of Gru and the Minions.
BRING BRENDAN FRASER BACK TO THE BIG SCREEN DAMN IT
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 6/24

Post by Chienfantome »

I have a hard time figuring out how Elvis will fare at the BO. $46M seems optimistic. I'm thinking more in the 30/35M area.
Your Black Phone prediction seems about right.
Lightyear should still hold decently, better so than Dominion.

In fact I'm wondering if Top Gun might not get the 1st spot back, actually. It's gonna hold better than that I think, even if it was helped last weekend by Father's Day, this weekend it's getting some Imax screens back. I'm thinking it's not gonna fall more than 25%, which would give it another 32 or 33 million. It might be enough for 1st place if Elvis doesn't perform that high.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 6/24

Post by Buscemi2 »

I think The Black Phone does much less. Universal should have never delayed it from February, when the buzz was a lot higher due to festival response. And with all of the big releases right now, do you really think audiences will show for another by-the-numbers Blumhouse production?

I'm thinking $12 million followed by poor word-of-mouth.

As for Elvis, the length is the biggest issue but audiences love long movies. It should be at its biggest in middle America, even with the glam style.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 6/24

Post by Shrykespeare »

Wanted to let y'all know to watch your inboxes for the next season's pricing schemes.
Happy 50th birthday Selma Blair! (6/23/22)

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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 6/24

Post by numbersix »

I'm cautious about Elvis, but thinking mid 30s and a strong hold due to the older audiences waiting until after OW. MAybe $100m

Black Phone looks good and it's been while since a good horror came out, but I'd predict a little lower - $14m

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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 6/24

Post by Buscemi2 »

Over the past few days, The Black Phone's Metacritic score has been tanking, going from 79 to 64. Meanwhile, the score for Elvis has rose from 62 from its Cannes appearance to 65.

Makes you realize just how a few critics can overrate something far in advance.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 6/24

Post by transformers2 »

Preview totals:
Elvis $3.5 mil
The Black Phone $3 mil
BRING BRENDAN FRASER BACK TO THE BIG SCREEN DAMN IT
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 6/24

Post by transformers2 »

Weekend Estimates:
Elvis/Top Gun: Maverick $30.5 mil
Jurassic World Dominion $26.4 mil
The Black Phone $23.3 mil
Lightyear $17.7 mil
Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness $1.7 mil
Jug Jugg Jeeyo $725k
Everything Everywhere All at Once $533k
The Bob's Burgers Movie $513k
The Bad Guys $440k

-Marcel the Shell with Shoes On $169k (6 theaters, PTA of $28,267)

Exit Polling:
Elvis: A- CinemaScore, 88% positive/72% definite recommend PostTrak
The Black Phone: B+ CinemaScore, 86% positive/67% definite recommend PostTrak
BRING BRENDAN FRASER BACK TO THE BIG SCREEN DAMN IT
Check out my blog http://maitlandsmadness.blogspot.com/
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