Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 5/27

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Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 5/27

Post by transformers2 »

Despite some optimism among industry power players, last weekend didn't mark the start of a New Era for senior-driven fare at the box office.

While the Downton Abbey sequel put up perfectly fine numbers ($16 mil) that were in line with the film's international openings, it also wasn't the catalyst for this key demographic many hoped it would be. Maybe, next month's Elvis can be the film that finally bring the 55+ crowd back in droves. (Note: While Top Gun certainly has appeal with that crowd, I'd argue that people in their mid 40's to early 50's are the primary target audience).

Fellow new opener Men fell more in line with its modest expectations as Alex Garland's latest polarizing creation scooped up $3.3 mil from 2,200 theaters. Given the extremely split reaction among the A24 faithful and complete lack of mainstream appeal, a huge second weekend drop could be on the dance card.

On the holdover front, Doctor Strange once again sat atop the box office. By grossing a slightly better than expected $32.3 mil, Multiverse of Madness returned to the MCU third weekend standard drop (48%) after a steeper than average fall (67%) in week two. The Sam Raimi-directed effort is sitting at just under $343 mil domestic through three weeks and should be able to hit the $400 million milestone sometime next week.

Wide Releases:
After no less than 66 delays over the past 4 years, Top Gun: Maverick (Paramount) is finally hitting theaters. Tom Cruise's return to the role that kickstarted his ascent to superstardom sees him going from hotshot rookie Navy aviator to loose cannon Navy aviator instructor whose brought in by his old friend Iceman (Val Kilmer)-who is now an Admiral-to oversee a new team of hotshot young pilots that just happens to include the son (Miles Teller) of his late friend Goose. Cue up the melodrama folks!

In terms of established properties, there's no bigger wild card on the summer release calendar. While it has a clear floor that exceeds $100 mil, it could cap out somewhere around $150-175 mil or shoot all the way up to $300 mil+. Why such a huge disparity? Simple: Top Gun is a franchise that's been radio silent for 36 years and its cultural impact beyond a certain group of people that were at just the right age in 1986 to get swept up by the tale of Maverick, Iceman and Goose is unclear. Gauging how much enthusiasm there is for Maverick won't be in the cards until at least the end of the weekend when we see what the day-to-day holds look like.

Despite the uncertainty of how high it will be able to fly by the end of its run, all of the signs are certainly pointed towards a very positive outcome. The reviews have been stellar, there arguably hasn't been a movie since Dune that's been as aggressively sold as a must-see in IMAX or another PLF and it has the dual-pronged luxury of opening on a holiday weekend and having minimal direct competition for the next month as Jurassic World: Dominion is the only non-animated, surefire tentpole set to release in June. Really the only thing it has going against it is a potential lack of crossover appeal with 35-and-under audiences that might've never seen the original. If Top Gun displays an ample amount of juice this weekend and has an even semi-decent hold over the following weekend, it should be an absolute behemoth in our game that hangs around in the top 5 for the remainder of the season.

Price: $22 ULT/$24 BO
Predictions: $55-85 mil opening ($65-95 mil 4-day)/13-26 Top 5/8-18 PTA/$150-275 mil total BO/high 7 to low 8 IMDb
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: Definitely


Friday will provide some much-needed relief to the American people. After nearly fourth consecutive months of unrelenting terror at multiplexes across the United States, The Bob's Burgers Movie (20th Century) trailer will mercifully be retired from circulation! Walking into a screening knowing that there will be a 0% chance of being greeted with the sights and sounds of obnoxious cartoon characters making what appear to be jokes will provide some much-needed piece of mind during these turbulent times.

Forecasting The Bob's Burgers Movie boils down to a single question: Does the show have a big enough fanbase for it to make money at the box office? While it has indeed been on the air for over a decade, it's not exactly The Simpsons. That long run has earned it some degree of cult following, but that almost seems like a rite of passage for Fox's Sunday Night animated lineup. The same thing could be said about shows like King of the Hill, Futurama and American Dad and none of those managed to set the zeitgeist ablaze during their runs.

The number of people that sit down to watch Bob's Burgers on a given Sunday night is probably matched or exceeded by those that promptly change the channel in confusion or frustration once an episode starts playing immediately after the NFL on Fox broadcast concludes. To put it much more succinctly (and more importantly, in a fashion that doesn't completely bewilder our European friends), Bob's Burgers seems like far too niche of a property to produce a movie that enjoys significant crossover success at the box office. The solid early reviews may tack a few more million onto its total, but a finish north of $30-35 mil would be pretty surprising.

Price: $8 ULT/$9 BO
Predictions: $6-10 mil opening ($8-12 mil 4-day)/2-6 Top 5/1-4 PTA/$18-35 mil total BO/mid to high 6 IMDb
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: No



Weekend Projections:
1.Top Gun: Maverick $66 mil ($76 mil 4-day)
2.Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness $19 mil ($23 mil 4-day)
3.Downton Abbey: A New Era $9 mil ($11 mil 4-day)
4.The Bob's Burgers Movie $7 mil ($9 mil 4-day)
5.The Bad Guys $4 mil ($5.5 mil 4-day)

PTA: Top Gun: Maverick, Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, Downton Abbey: A New Era, The Bob's Burgers Movie, The Bad Guys

Tune in next week when Screen previews a slate that solely consists of a few well-received indie releases and silently crosses his fingers that Crimes of the Future-which isn't in this game-can provide some early juice to his full year slate.
BRING BRENDAN FRASER BACK TO THE BIG SCREEN DAMN IT
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 5/27

Post by Buscemi2 »

I don't even think The Bob's Burgers Movie hits $7 million. It seems more likely most of the potential audience will wait until it hits Hulu a few weeks later.

But then again, I didn't see Sonic the Hedgehog 2 doing so well.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 5/27

Post by transformers2 »

Preview totals:
Top Gun: Maverick $19.3 mil (Tuesday night through yesterday)
The Bob's Burgers Movie $1.5 mil

Looks like I lowballed the shit out of Top Gun :lol:
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 5/27

Post by Chienfantome »

Indeed ! Thank you Jesus ! Thank you Tom Cruise !
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 5/27

Post by transformers2 »

Early Weekend Estimates:
Top Gun: Maverick $123 mil
Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness $17 mil
The Bob's Burgers Movie $15.6 mil
Downton Abbey: A New Era $6.4 mil
The Bad Guys $4.9 mil
Sonic the Hedgehog 2 $2.9 mil
Everything Everywhere All at Once $2.5 mil
F3: Fun and Frustration $1.6 mil
The Lost City $1.5 mil
Men $1.3 mil

Early 4 Day Estimates:
Top Gun: Maverick $150 mil
Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness $21.8 mil
The Bob's Burgers Movie $17.3 mil
Downton Abbey: A New Era $8.2 mil
The Bad Guys $6.6 mil
Sonic the Hedgehog 2 $3.6 mil
Everything Everywhere All at Once $2.9 mil
The Lost City $2 mil
F3: Fun and Frustration $1.9 mil
Men $1.7 mil
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 5/27

Post by Chienfantome »

Top Gun is gonna be a great 1st round pick as #7 on the draft. I'm glad I went this way.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 5/27

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Chienfantome wrote:
May 29th, 2022, 11:11 am
Top Gun is gonna be a great 1st round pick as #7 on the draft. I'm glad I went this way.
It's looking like you got a steal at the bottom half of the 1st round, especially if the raves its earning translate to strong legs. Well done pal.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 5/27

Post by Chienfantome »

I went to see the film friday night here in Paris, and even us, snobbish parisians, loved it and cheered and applauded at the end, so I'm sure it's gonna have great legs and be one of the biggest hits of summer.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 5/27

Post by transformers2 »

Weekend Actuals (4-day):
1.Top Gun: Maverick $160.5 mil (New record for Memorial Day Weekend)
2.Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness $20.3 mil
3.The Bob's Burgers Movie $14.8 mil
4.Downton Abbey: A New Era $7.4 mil
5.The Bad Guys $5.6 mil
6.Everything Everywhere All at Once $3.2 mil
7.Sonic the Hedgehog 2 $3.1 mil
8.The Lost City $2.3 mil
9.Men $1.5 mil
10.F3: Fun and Frustration $1.2 mil

PTA:
1.Top Gun: Maverick $33,899
2.Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness $5,436
3.The Bob's Burgers Movie $4,321
4.Everything Everywhere All at Once $2,696
5.The Lost City $2,211
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 5/27

Post by Chienfantome »

Those are fantastic numbers. And what's even greater is that the word of mouth is gonna turn Top Gun into a summer juggernaut.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 5/27

Post by transformers2 »

Chienfantome wrote:
May 31st, 2022, 6:47 pm
Those are fantastic numbers. And what's even greater is that the word of mouth is gonna turn Top Gun into a summer juggernaut.
More than likely, it will be. That being said, there is a chance that it ends being really frontloaded as a result of being released on the weekend of a military holiday.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 5/27

Post by numbersix »

I think the buzz and Cinemascore, plus a fairly light June, will ensure TG2 holds. Wouldn't surprise me if it hit $400m

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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 5/27

Post by Chienfantome »

Yeah, given the word of mouth, buzz, and light schedule ahead, I think the film is bound for at least a X3 multiplier, which would make it above 350M, and I think it's only a floor. 400M wouldn't be such a stretch indeed.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 5/27

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It made $15.8 mil yesterday, so the tiny sliver of doubt I had about its legs has already died :lol:
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