The 2020 Calendar Year Draft Thread

[transformers2]

Remind me - are ALL 2019 Christmas holdovers off the table?

No, the opposite. They're all on the table but their tally only begins from Jan 1. Or is it Jan 3???

I thought we decided on the 1st, but I could very well be mistaken

[Shrykespeare]

I will gobble up the 2020 box office take for Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker. The Last Jedi managed $100M after the calendar turned last year, and Ep IX has the benefit (for me) of debuting five days later than its predecessor.

[Chienfantome]

Anyone got ahold of UDM ?

[silversurfer19]

Think UDM must have been skipped already, it's been well over 12 hours.

Leestu is on the clock.

[Leestu]

Spongebob

[Brockster]

I’ll take Scoob!


Merry Xmas everyone!!!

[silversurfer19]

I will go with The Witches for Round 2 and Halloween Kills for Round 3.

Have a great day everyone!

[Brockster]

The one and only Ivan

[silversurfer19]

I imagine going by past rounds it may be a while before things get going again, so thought I would do a recap of where we are in the draft so far.

I think the first round went by with little in the way of surprises, all very worthy picks capable of making at least $300m. After that point though it definitely gets a little sketchy. I think the Birds Of Prey could be a great pick, not sure why it is projected to perform so poorly at the moment. Godzilla VS Kong should also be good, still annoyed it got bumped for my slate on the other draft. A Quiet Place should at least open well and could easily hit $150m, so it was one on my list. Other than that, everything seems so up in the air. Skywalker went at a good time, but the animated movies could easily struggle to make more than $80m which for a round 2 pick would be pretty bad. Is Dune going to make a real wedge in just a couple of weeks? I'm not so sure it will open so well or be more of a hit that builds and builds. I am happy with my picks for rounds 2 and 3, the Halloween sequel had a lot of good will going for it so hopefully should do well, and with Zemekis, Hathaway and a string of great actors as well as a well loved novel and original film. I'm hoping The Witches really breaks out, especially as October seems to have recently become a really good month for big box office releases.

EDIT: Also really interested to see how Soul and Tenet do, both look really interesting and slightly surprised they went as low as they did. Look like they have far more upside than a rather slate Minions and Fast and The Furious 423. And also, will Top Gun rake it in with nostalgia? Trailer looks decent, but will it do any better than a Misson Impossible movie? I'm not so sure.

Interested to hear how everyone else thinks their slates are progressing at this point.

[Leestu]

Morbius

[numbersix]

Ah Dune. Well, I looked at this year and there isn't any obvious hits besides WW1984, so I figured there will be a few surprises. I looked at the first 13 days for every major non-Star Wars Dec blockbuster over the last 15 or so years, and Dune could make anywhere from 75m to 250m (which is what Avatar did). If it's handled well, then I think 150-175m is possible by the end of December. For me the ceiling was much higher than any of the other available films like Godzilla Vs Kong (which I don't see making more than Skull Island, considering Godzilla 2's performance) or A Quiet Place 2.

I was really surprised to see Jungle Cruise get picked 2nd. I see the logic but it could be a 100m summer movie, when there were more obvious 200m ones on the board. Top Gun is also a risk. Tom Cruise's stock ain't what it used to be. Which is probably why he's doing this sequel. And nostalgia doesn't always work. Again, it could do huge but it could also fail to take off.

The Witches is another surprise for me, Surf. I don't have much faith in Zemeckis and this could bomb if not handled well. Or maybe I'm just annoyed as I love the fucked-up 90s adaptation. There are a few safer bets still on the board, though I commend your bravery.

[Aquamann2001]

Mission Impossible fallout was a big hit.
Top gun + 4th of July = American Orgy at the box office. The original made nearly 200 mil in 1986.

[silversurfer19]

That's an interesting take on Dune. I still think the story is too fucked up and complicated to bring in a huge audience a la Avatar, but you never know. And I agree, this season is so interesting as there really are not any guarantees like in previous years. So many franchises ending has really left the whole season open for break outs. That's why I think original movies like Soul and Tenet could do great.

As for The Witches, I too love the original, mostly for Huston's performance. But it was also hugely flawed, so I see lots of potential for it and with a great slot, I can see big numbers for it. At least I hope so anyway!

[Walleye413]

I said it when I drafted it - Black Widow falling to me was surprising. I figure May/Marvel has to be 300 million. Really expect anything less? Especially since it's the the first one since Avengers?

I'm super hopeful for Soul, Tenet, and Raya. But I'm not sure what to expect. It would be glorious if all these original ideas outplayed the tired sequels that'll be coming out. But i have little faith in that actually happening. I think this year's draft is going to be much harder than in year's past - which makes it more interesting.

[Chienfantome]

My biggest surprises in Round 1 were Jungle Cruise getting picked 2nd, as I'm not even sure I would have tried it in the first round, and Top Gun, which is more of a 2nd Round pick in my eyes too. Tenet too seems a bit risky this early.

2nd round went all over the place, with a lot of picks which feel too early for me. The Trolls sequel is my biggest "Whaaaat ?" moment for now in the draft, as I don't see it making $100M, but the first one did good business so I might be wrong. Star Wars, safe pick, but unlikely to draw that much considering the lukewarm reception. The Witches is a question mark. Scoob and Spongebob seem a bit outdated to make a strong mark on the BO.
Ivan, Morbius and Halloween are more interesting picks than half of those picked in Round 2 I think.

But as everyone said, it's a strange year, with not so many huge films, and the challenge in 2020 is to bet on the right dark horse. I've been able to play it safe up until now, but it won't last.

I almost forgot, JOYEUX NOEL ! my dear friends from all over the world