Box Office Top 20 - Fall 2014

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Chienfantome
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Re: Box Office Top 20 - Fall 2014

Post by Chienfantome »

I don't believe you, John. I'm sure you're just saying that to relish the opportunity to say to the poor guy who's late : "Naaaaaaaaaaah that's too late dude, I was messin' with ya !".
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JohnErle
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Re: Box Office Top 20 - Fall 2014

Post by JohnErle »

Here's the most popular picks among the 10 of us who entered, sorted by the number of times a movie was picked, and then the average rank it was given.

(Now that I've done this, the window of opportunity to take advantage of my niceness is probably closed.)

Image

There was absolutely no doubt that The Avengers and The Hunger Games would finish 1-2, while the Hobbit snuck by the Minions for the #3 spot.

I think the biggest surprises for me this year are how many people think the latest Terminator movie will do well, and how many people not named Chien passed on Into The Woods. Arnie's movie career since leaving politics has been a disaster, and the last Terminator movie only made $125 million, so I expect the sight of Arnie as a wrinkled, slow, and flabby robot will only drag the franchise down further. And Into The Woods is a Disney musical about fairy tales launching on Christmas Day with Meryl Streep and Johnny Depp, so it seems like a lock to me. Rob Marshall has been hit and miss at the box office, so that's the only potential black mark against it that I can see, and the chance of it getting that repeat business from women until March made it too good to pass up.

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numbersix
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Re: Box Office Top 20 - Fall 2014

Post by numbersix »

Yeah, Into the Woods has great potential, although Hobbitses will be competition in terms of older kids.

I'm more surprised so many people picked up Pan. It had everything going for it until I saw who the director was.

Same with Fantastic Four, which could really underwhelm due to the cast being largely unknown to a mainstream audience, and to it not being a Marvel film.

BOO also got quite a few picks. Unlike this year next summer seems crowded in terms of animated fare and they could cannibalise each other. The proximity of BOO and Monster Trucks worries me, especially when Inside Out could destroy them both when it comes out two weeks after BOO. And then Minions in July.

As for Terminator, it is a risk but it's another attempt at a reboot with a lead actress who is adored in her role on GOT (and will be playing a similar role as Sarah Connor) and potentially a new take on the subject. And Arnie will be pretty much entirely CGI-ed, much like he was in Terminator Salvation.

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Chienfantome
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Re: Box Office Top 20 - Fall 2014

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It was a case of honour for me not to put "Into the Woods" on that list.
I have no trust in the director quality wise, the trailer looks awful, the cast is comprised of question marks at the BO (Streep and Depp are no surefire hit), and i don't know anyone who is excited by the perspective of this film.
Ninja Turtles crushed the BO, so anything's possible I'd say, but I don't want that film to succeed, so i'm not betting on it for now. I may change my mind later on, but not so early, not for this game ;)

As for Terminator, I figured that if the 4th could grab $125 million without Schwarzy, the 5th could should do At least the same, with potential to go higher. Schwarzy may be burned out and no A-list anymore, but put him back in his most iconic role, and people will come see him again.

I was warty of BOO too because as you say Six, i'm afraid the summer will be crowded for animated flicks, and Inside Out and Minions might not leave much space. I still put it on the bench.

As for Fantastic Four, it may not be Marvel, bu X-Men Days of Future Past wasn't Marvel either. And even though you can't compare the two in terms of popupalrity, cast and all, a lot of people will not realize it's not Marvel and will be curious to see a different take on it. A lot of people were disappointed with the Tim Story films, and if this one turns out good, WOM will make it a big success I think. And it has that late summer spot where it won't have much competition, like GOTG and TMNT this year.
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JohnErle
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Re: Box Office Top 20 - Fall 2014

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Jon Snow and Jack Bauer are popular TV characters too, but no one cared about seeing those actors together in Pompeii, and that was also a similar role for Kit Harrington.

I just think Arnie brings way too much baggage with him and is done as a movie star. And there are so many questions surrounding this movie, like is Arnie a hero or a villain? Is he the star or is it another cameo, like you mentioned in Salvation.

The movie should do okay and probably won't kill your slate, but I didn't see enough breakout potential to justify the risk of it doing Robocop/Total Recall reboot numbers.

And as for Pan, I think Joe Wright has a fantastic visual sense and understands how to make films that pack an emotional wallop, so I think he's a great choice for Peter Pan, which could be huge. It'll be interesting to see what he does with a bug budget and a summer tentpole.

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Re: Box Office Top 20 - Fall 2014

Post by JohnErle »

I think the fact that Rob Marshall once ran over Chien's dog while wearing a "Korea Sucks!" t-shirt is blinding him to Into The Woods' potential.

Claiming that Meryl Streep is a question mark at the box office is kind of crazy. She automatically adds 30-40 million to any film she's in, even movies like August: Osage County, The Iron Lady, and Doubt, which probably never would have gone wide without her. Put her in something like this and females from 6 to 86 will want to see it.

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Chienfantome
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Re: Box Office Top 20 - Fall 2014

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There's no chance a new Terminator movie opening next summer with Schwarzenegger back will make Robocop / Total Recall reboot numbers. Even if there isn't much chance it will breakout and make $200M, it has a shot at $130/140M, and that's good enough for the Top 20 in the last spots.

I considered Pan too, but the so-so success of the last one that was a $100M movie which opened on Christmas, and couldn't even make $50M, persuaded me to not take it. Even if this one has bigger stars in the cast, there's a chance it might not even break $100M.

And how do you know about Rob Marshall running over me with that "Korea sucks !" T-shirt ? I told you about it ? ;)

I've taken a look at Streep's track record at the BO, and it didn't make me feel like she assured every woman would run to see any film with her, far from it. Her biggest hit is $144M, and that was Mamma Mia. And I can't see Into the Woods being the next Mamma Mia. More like the next Sweeney Todd, only with a few more bucks at the BO thanks to the fairytale side of it. Right now I can't see it making more than $100M, and that's best case scenario, I'd be less surprised to see it grab 75 or 80.
Maybe I'm wrong, we'll see along the weeks. But now I need to be right to not regret it ;)
Last edited by Chienfantome on October 1st, 2014, 9:19 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Box Office Top 20 - Fall 2014

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I'd forgotten that version of Peter Pan even existed.

Looking at when it came out, I'd say it got steam-rolled by Return Of The King, which captured the fantasy crowd, and overshadowed by Cheaper By The Dozen, which grabbed the family crowd. I just watched the trailer, and it looks extremely dated visually, which I don't think will be a problem with Joe Wright behind the camera.

That movie is 10 years old, so there's an entire generation of kids who haven't had a chance to see this iconic character on the big screen, so I think an updated version has a chance to do very well in the summer, even though the kiddie market is pretty crowded.

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Chienfantome
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Re: Box Office Top 20 - Fall 2014

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And this Pan might get its thunder stolen by minions for the family crowd and Ant-Man for, well, not fantasy, but a superhero loving / geek crowd that could also be interested by Pan.
All in all, I agree this could be a breakout, but as of this minute, I felt there was not enough certainty surrounding it. Maybe at Christmas we'll see a trailer and I'll bite my fingers for not putting it on that list. Maybe. Or maybe not. ;)

When the other Peter pan, the one from ten years ago, there had been an even bigger gap in theater for a Pan movie, and yet it didn't help it be a blockbuster. And yet it was a great movie. I remember I loved it. And many people did.
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Re: Box Office Top 20 - Fall 2014

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I haven't seen it, but since it has Ludivine Sagnier as Tinkerbell and a still-young Olivia Williams, I should probably watch it, preferably late at night with the shades pulled down.

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Re: Box Office Top 20 - Fall 2014

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Don't give us too much details, please.
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numbersix
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Re: Box Office Top 20 - Fall 2014

Post by numbersix »

JohnErle wrote: And as for Pan, I think Joe Wright has a fantastic visual sense and understands how to make films that pack an emotional wallop, so I think he's a great choice for Peter Pan, which could be huge. It'll be interesting to see what he does with a bug budget and a summer tentpole.
See, even if he does make films with an emotional punch, like Atonement, Wright's never been able to reconcile that with a truly mainstream appeal, particularly in the US. Even Hanna, arguably his most mainstream film, made only 40m there. Why? Because despite its accessible premise it was littered with very odd moments (he claimed were "Lynchian"). His big American drama, The Soloist, was a bit of a bomb and his adaptation of Anna Karenina was so far removed from mainstream audience tastes (with its play-within-a-film structure) that I can't help but see Pan as a well-reviewed film which alienates kids. Given that Ant-Man is still due to open that weekend, plus Minions will be going strong, and with Pixels to follow, I couldn't see it.

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Re: Box Office Top 20 - Fall 2014

Post by JohnErle »

Four of his five films to date, including Hannah, have been for Focus Features, and he delivered three of the top 10 highest grossing Focus films of all time. I'd say that he did very well considering the budgets, subject matter, stars, and marketing he was working with. His only studio film to date was the Soloist, and that was clearly an adult drama and not a summer tentpole, so again the expectations were different.

You're right that this is uncharted territory for him, but I suspect the producers will make sure those "Lynchian" moments you're talking about will not be a part of this production considering how much they've invested in the project, and I'm betting on him being able to deliver a big, studio tentpole that'll keep the kids happy as well as the critics. Hell, even David Lynch's Dune would have been a respectable pick had we been playing this game in 1984.

And for the record, I haven't seen Hannah because the entire concept sounded so stupid to me, but when you're talking about an original movie starring Saoirse Ronan and Eric Bana vs. a Peter Pan movie with Hugh Jackman and Amanda Seyfried, the expectations are, again, completely different.

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Re: Box Office Top 20 - Fall 2014

Post by undeadmonkey »

My main comparison for Into The Woods was Les Mis, and if a boring 2 and a half hour, every single damn word sung, movie can make $150M there's no reason Into The Woods can't make that or more. Fairytales are all the rage right now.

I left both Terminator and Pan off my list. Terminator is a joke right now, That could change but it's risky and it could easily flop. As for Pan, I think it could easily be moved up to a christmas release, it just doesn't seem like a summer tentpole movie.


As for Joe Wright, I loved Hannah and Pride and Prejudice. Absolutely hated Anna Karenina and Atonement, never saw The Soloist.

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Chienfantome
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Re: Box Office Top 20 - Fall 2014

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Les Misérables is a good comparison, except I think on the paper Les Misérables is much stronger than Into the Woods. Les Misérables was like the biggest Broadway musical, with written all over the posters and trailers "From the director of The King's Speech", and starring Wolverine and Catwoman.
Into the Woods, many people don't know what it's about, the director's last musical was a disaster, and its biggest star is Johnny Depp who's coming off Transcendence and Lone Ranger.
The only thing going for it is that Disney is written on the poster, but sometimes it doesn't do much.
I really think Into the Woods should easily clear 75 million dollars, but it won't come near Les Misérables numbers.
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