Box Office Top 20 - Fall 2013

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numbersix
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Re: Box Office Mega Contest - Fall 2013

Post by numbersix »

When 300 pt 2 was originally planned for August, I felt it would get lost in the mix. But now that it's playing in March, where there isn't a huge amount of competition (unless Divergent is a huge success, which I don't think it will be), it should do quite well. Wrath of the titans made half of Clash, but not a lot of people like the first one. With 300 being so beloved, and after seeing the trailer to the sequel, I expect pt 2 to make 100-150m.

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englishozzy
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Re: Box Office Mega Contest - Fall 2013

Post by englishozzy »

As usual I leave to the last minute;

1. The Hunger Games: Catching Fire
2. Transformers: Age of Extinction
3. How to Train Your Dragon 2
4. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
5. The Amazing Spider Man 2
6. Thor: The Dark World
7. Fast and Furious 7
8. Captain America: The Winter Soldier
9. X-Men: Days of Future Past
10. Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
11. Guardians of the Galaxy
12. Rio 2
13. Anchorman 2: The Legend Continues
14. 22 Jump Street
15. Godzilla
16. Tammy
17. Wolf of Wall Street
18. 300: Rise of an Empire
19. The Secret Life of Walter Mitty
20. Ender's Game

Subs:

1. Frozen
2. Maleficent
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BanksIsDaFuture
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Re: Box Office Mega Contest - Fall 2013

Post by BanksIsDaFuture »

1. The Hunger Games: Catching Fire
2. The Amazing Spider-Man 2
3. Transformers: Age of Extinction
4. The Hobbit: Desolation of Smaug
5. How To Train Your Dragon 2
6. Thor: The Dark World
7. Fast & Furious 7
8. Maleficent
9. Godzilla
10. Captain America: The Winter Soldier
11. X-Men: Days of Future Past
12. Mr. Peabody & Sherman
13. Edge of Tomorrow
14. Tammy
15. Dawn of The Planet of The Apes
16. Guardians of The Galaxy
17. 22 Jump Street
18. A Million Ways To Die In The West
19. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles
20. Frozen

Bench:
1. Rio 2
2. Divergent
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JohnErle
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Re: Box Office Mega Contest - Fall 2013

Post by JohnErle »

Got it, Banks.

There's roughly 2.5 hours until the deadline, for any more latecomers.

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JohnErle
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Re: Box Office Mega Contest - Fall 2013

Post by JohnErle »

I plugged everyone's submissions into a spreadsheet so I can keep track of scores once the numbers start rolling in, and once I had everything entered I decided to do a little number-crunching.

I was curious to see which films had the highest expectations, so I assigned a simple point system where each person's top pick received 22 points and their second bench pick got one point. Here's the tally:

Hunger Games - 197
Transformers - 180
How To Train Your Dragon 2 - 173
Hobbit - 171
Spider-Man - 170
Thor - 147
Fast $ Furious - 139
Captain America - 132
X-Men - 116

Dawn Of The Planet Of The Apes - 97
Guardians Of The Galaxy - 83
Cloudy - 68
Rio - 60
22 Jump St - 59
Anchorman - 55
Tammy - 50
Lego - 39
Godzilla - 39
Maleficent - 33
The Wolf Of Wall St - 28
300: Rise - 26
Mr. Peabody & Sherman - 25
Frozen - 24
Walter Mitty - 24
Ender's Game - 22
A Million Ways To Die In The West - 22
The Monuments Men - 12
Edge Of Tomorrow - 11
Noah - 11
Fifty Shades of Grey - 10
47 Ronin - 6
The Familymoon - 5
TMNT - 4
American Hustle - 3
Gravity - 1
Hercules - 1
Divergent - 1

The films in bold were picked by all 9 of us, but 22 Jump Street wasn't in anyone's top 10 so it ranks a little lower than some films that certain people didn't pick at all.

No real surprises at the top of the list, but the biggest shock to me (and Six, presumably) is that Guardians Of The Galaxy was picked by everyone except us, and pretty high on most of those lists, too. That seems like a lot of faith in an August release of a virtually unknown property, even if it is Marvel studios, but maybe there are a lot of comic book readers among you who know something we don't.

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Chienfantome
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Re: Box Office Mega Contest - Fall 2013

Post by Chienfantome »

I had never even heard of Guardian of the Galaxy before the project was launched, but I don't think I had ever heard of Iron Man either before the movie was made.
More importantly, the high faith in Guardians marks, on my part at least, a high faith in anything produced by Marvel. It's like Pixar, right now when there's Marvel written all over it, it's a can't miss at the BO. Once one of them will fail, it will change, but until then, I see no reason not to include it on such a slate.
And so do you know if we all picked different slates ? (I know what you'll say, that I can see it for myself, but I'm lazy ;) )
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JohnErle
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Re: Box Office Mega Contest - Fall 2013

Post by JohnErle »

I haven't checked for duplicate slates, but I'm pretty sure they're all unique.

And I get the "faith in Marvel" thing, but I read plenty of comic books during my misspent youth, and during the entire history of comic book movies there have only been three films based on Marvel properties I'd never heard of prior to the movie: Blade (solid numbers, but way below the Marvel norm), Howard The Duck (huge flop), and now Guardians Of The Galaxy.

From the very little I know about the comic books, it looks too niche.

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Chienfantome
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Re: Box Office Mega Contest - Fall 2013

Post by Chienfantome »

But we have entered an era in Hollywood when Marvel is a huge brand. Howard the Duck and Blade came out at a time when comic book films were almost a niche. Now that Marvel produce their own films, the context is very different.
Besides, if they put a teaser in front of Thor 2 and a trailer in front of Captain America 2, tempting ones of course, the expectations will rise quickly.
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JohnErle
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Re: Box Office Mega Contest - Fall 2013

Post by JohnErle »

Chienfantome wrote:But we have entered an era in Hollywood when Marvel is a huge brand. Howard the Duck and Blade came out at a time when comic book films were almost a niche. Now that Marvel produce their own films, the context is very different.
Besides, if they put a teaser in front of Thor 2 and a trailer in front of Captain America 2, tempting ones of course, the expectations will rise quickly.
That's all true, but Wolverine is one of the most popular comic book heroes of all time and his last movie could only manage 130 million with a nearly identical release date. If GOG* was being released in June or November I would have a lot more faith in it, but an early August release seems to imply that even Marvel is hedging its bets on this one.

* See, even the movie's acronym looks silly. It's too niche. ;-)

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numbersix
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Re: Box Office Mega Contest - Fall 2013

Post by numbersix »

I think I mentioned it before, but this is also a new (and possible origin) story featuring a group of characters. This makes it harder to associate with in the same way Iron Man and those other Marvel films did - you don't have one person to fixated on and identify with. The Avengers was the combination of characters already established int he previous films, and even the first X-Men movie was essentially a Wolverine story.

Marvel is a mighty brand but nothing lasts forever, and they're right at the stage where their arrogance could be their downfall.

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Chienfantome
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Re: Box Office Mega Contest - Fall 2013

Post by Chienfantome »

The last Wolverine was, what, the 5th film with the character appearing ? There's a clear fatigue concerning that character, a fatigue that such a brand new film as Guardians of the Galaxy won't suffer. And while there's a risk that the fatigue might add up to all Marvel characters (although the huge success of Iron Man 3 tends to indicate the opposite), there might just also be huge curiosity for new superheroes, after an accumulation of Marvel films with the same characters crossing in and out of films.
Clearly Guardians of the Galaxy isn't a surefire hit like Thor 2 or Cap 2 will be, but chances are, audiences will be craving for something new from Marvel. I'm sure we'll have a teaser trailer ready in time for Thor 2's release, and this will be a good indicator of the potential of the film. I prefer to put my money on it right now.
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BanksIsDaFuture
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Re: Box Office Mega Contest - Fall 2013

Post by BanksIsDaFuture »

I'm more surprised nobody believes in Michael Bay's live-action Ninja Turtles movie.
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Chienfantome
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Re: Box Office Mega Contest - Fall 2013

Post by Chienfantome »

BanksIsDaFuture wrote:I'm more surprised nobody believes in Michael Bay's live-action Ninja Turtles movie.
:lol: Good joke, Banks
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JohnErle
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Re: Box Office Mega Contest - Fall 2013

Post by JohnErle »

First Update:

Shoulda picked Gravity. Fuck!

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Chienfantome
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Re: Box Office Mega Contest - Fall 2013

Post by Chienfantome »

That's what I thought when I saw this weekend's numbers...
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