2013 Super Contest - Pick the Top 20 Films

Different user set-up games offered up by different members. Have fun!

Moderators: Buscemi, BarcaRulz, Geezer, W

User avatar
W
Norman Bates
Posts: 7242
Joined: October 21st, 2009, 4:37 pm

Re: 2013 Super Contest - Pick the Top 20 Films

Post by W »

Catching Fire: 17 first place votes, 1 seventh place vote.

Some people think the director of I Am Legend can direct a dystopian thriller for the masses. You may not have liked it, but at $250 m in 2007 dollars some people did. Though, that's assuming the director of a film like this has more than a marginal effect on the box office, which isn't true.
Tenet: Criterion Edition. Now with more Backwards Man.

User avatar
numbersix
Darth Vader
Posts: 11545
Joined: October 21st, 2009, 2:34 pm

Re: 2013 Super Contest - Pick the Top 20 Films

Post by numbersix »

Well, a lot of people disliked I Am Legend too. But I think the real key is that most people won't really care about who is directing it. It's a franchise, and they want to continue watching the journey of Katniss. Even if there's a slight change or focus, the change of directors for Twilight didn't really seem to mind.

User avatar
silversurfer19
John Rambo
Posts: 7726
Joined: October 21st, 2009, 3:34 pm
Location: pretty much the ass end of the universe

Re: 2013 Super Contest - Pick the Top 20 Films

Post by silversurfer19 »

I agree, I would also use Harry Potter as an example, where different types of directors, from Chris Columbus to Alfonso Cuaron, worked on the movies, yet their Box Office take was generally stable.

User avatar
numbersix
Darth Vader
Posts: 11545
Joined: October 21st, 2009, 2:34 pm

Re: 2013 Super Contest - Pick the Top 20 Films

Post by numbersix »

Time for the first update. I won't be posting earnings just yet as it's too early and nothing has closed.

However...

A bunch of us stumbled at the first hurdle, with the disappointing results of Die Hard 5. Myself, Buscemi, Brockster, and Shryke are all going to have to hope there's some surprising disappointments on the slates of the others. The film won't even hit $70m

Nobody picked up Identity Thief, which has earned over $130m.

All of us picked Oz, and rightly so as it's destined to appear in the Top 20 of the year having already made $200m in 25 days.

The Croods looks like a good pick, having earned $93m in only 11 days, its strong daily and weekly hold ensuring its place in the yearly Top 20. Unlucky for the 8 who didn't pick it up, namely Buscemi, Wrestler, Brock, Tranny, UDM, Shaan, W, and Banks.

GI Joe 2 will probably not perform as well as the first film, but having earned 55m in 5 days it should cross the $100m mark and end up not too far from the Top 20. So good pick, Wrestler, Brock, Shonen, JohnE, and Empire.

Wrestler can't celebrate too much, though, as he was the only one to pick The Host, which bombed with an $11m opening weekend. Here's hoping Planes (another film only he took) will perform well.

The next film to appear in this game is Oblivion, picked by Brock and W, and then the summer blockbusters hit town.

User avatar
Chienfantome
Captain Jack Sparrow
Posts: 9967
Joined: May 29th, 2010, 4:22 am
Location: Paris, France
Contact:

Re: 2013 Super Contest - Pick the Top 20 Films

Post by Chienfantome »

Nice, thanks for the update, Six.
And how about last year's game ? Did we end up having a final rank or something ?
Fluctuat nec mergitur

User avatar
JohnErle
Snake Plissken
Posts: 2905
Joined: October 22nd, 2009, 4:01 am
Contact:

Re: 2013 Super Contest - Pick the Top 20 Films

Post by JohnErle »

Yeah, thanks for the update. Last year it was like we forgot this game existed until it was time for the final tally. It'll be good to have semi-regular updates.

And normally I would give you a patronising nod for choosing Die Hard but I've got a crick in my neck.

User avatar
numbersix
Darth Vader
Posts: 11545
Joined: October 21st, 2009, 2:34 pm

Re: 2013 Super Contest - Pick the Top 20 Films

Post by numbersix »

Still no final tally for 2012, as some films are still in release. But Banks is still the winner, with Ron B, SS, and Ozzy all close to the top.

And thanks, John, but I'm too occupied patronising myself. It takes years to learn.

User avatar
JohnErle
Snake Plissken
Posts: 2905
Joined: October 22nd, 2009, 4:01 am
Contact:

Re: 2013 Super Contest - Pick the Top 20 Films

Post by JohnErle »

And thanks, John, but I'm too occupied patronising myself. It takes years to learn.
Really? It only took me a week to learn that.

(Shakes head patronisingly)

User avatar
numbersix
Darth Vader
Posts: 11545
Joined: October 21st, 2009, 2:34 pm

Re: 2013 Super Contest - Pick the Top 20 Films

Post by numbersix »

The first films of the competition have closed, and neither performed particularly well.

Die Hard 5 closed to a mere $67m, far below any of the previous films (once adjusted). That's bad news for the four who picked it: Buscemi, Brock, Shryke, and myself. Oh dear, we're all at a disadvantage.

And worse for Wrestler, who hoped The Host could capitalise on the ridiculous success of the Twilight series, but closed with a meagre $27m. Unlucky, buddy.

As for other films, GI Joe 2 (Wrestler, Brock, JohnE, Empire, Shonen) held well to earn $121m, which may earn it a place in the Top 20.

Brock and W may be disappointed the Oblivion won't cross the $90m mark, but at least it's not Die Hard 5, eh?

Everyone picked up Iron Man 4, Star Trek into Darkness, The Hangover Pt 3, Fast 6.

Congrats to Wrestler, Brock, Jas, W, and Banks for avoiding Epic, which may only cross the $100m mark and probably won't enter the Top 20.

Last weekend saw the over-performance of Now You See Me (picked up by UDM and nobody else) and the disappointment of After Earth (Brock, Shryke, SS, Redraider, Empire, W, Banks, Shaan), which will struggle to pass $80m

And finally, The Great Gatsby. My gut said it could surprise, and now it's destined to make over $130m. But it's on my bench, and it seems unlikely many other films will get pushed. Damn. Brock, however, will be laughing all the way to the bank as he is the only other who chose it.

Still too early to start counting beans, I'll probably do that towards the end of the year.

User avatar
JohnErle
Snake Plissken
Posts: 2905
Joined: October 22nd, 2009, 4:01 am
Contact:

Re: 2013 Super Contest - Pick the Top 20 Films

Post by JohnErle »

Damn you, White House Down. Or more to the point, damn you Olympus Has Fallen.

I really thought Olympus would flop because it looked so cheap and because Gerard Butler hadn't scored a hit in ages, but it wound up stealing all of WHD's thunder. WHD will still outgross Die Hard and After Earth, two movies I never considered, but I might need a few more flops to keep me in contention. Come on, Ender's Game! Flop like you mean it!

And I should have ignored all the zombie fanboys and picked WWZ. Damn.

User avatar
numbersix
Darth Vader
Posts: 11545
Joined: October 21st, 2009, 2:34 pm

Re: 2013 Super Contest - Pick the Top 20 Films

Post by numbersix »

Just another quick update.

The Summer blockbuster season has unofficially ended (the rest of August is a dumping ground), and there have been winners and losers, that's for sure.

I already detailed the films up until June, so here's an update since then.

Everyone picked Man of Steel, Despicable Me 2, and Monsters University, and all three will be in the Top 20 of the year.

UDM was the only person to pick Now You See Me, which shocked us all by earning $115m. Well done, sir. It's a shame it's on your bench and none of your picks so far have been bumped to next year, but at least your other bench pick, Red 2 (which will struggle to his 60m) won't be activated either.

After Earth was a complete disaster for a blockbuster, earning a measly $60m. Brock, Shryke, SS, Redraider, Empire, W, Banks, Shaan will all be kicking yourselves, even though at the start of this year it did look like a potential hit.

This is the End performed reasonably well, opening modestly and holding well to make $96m. Not enough to make the Top 20 but a solid result for Banks (Tranny, W and SS have it on their bench).

World War Z was arguably the biggest surprise of the summer. Despite its difficult history and the limited success of zombie films to date, it managed to make almost 200m and will possibly remain in the Top 10 for the year. Major props to Brock, Tranny, Chien, UDM, and W (Jas, Ozzy have it on their benches)for picking what we all felt was a risky choice.

The Heat also surpassed expectations by earning over 155m to date, another cert for the Top 20. This will give a real advantage to the few who picked it up: Jas, UDM, Empire, Redraider. My excuse is that it hadn't been given its summer release date by the time I picked my list. Honest.

However, that weekend also had the start of a slate of disappointments. As John mentioned, Olympus killed white House Down, and the summer version earned only $72m for the 11 of you who snapped it up. Wrestler, Tranny, Jas, UDM, Empire, W, and myself were wise to avoid (though I was so close to picking it). The Lone Ranger should have been a huge franchise starter, but the poor reviews and the growing boredom of Depp's "characters" contributed to its paltry $87m to date (and it won't earn much more). Props to Shryke, Chien, SS, Empire, and Redraider for avoiding, though fortunately for myself and John E it goes uncounted on our benches. Pacific Rim also disappointed in some ways, though it's possible it will reach $100m and not be a total disaster for those who nabbed it: Jas, Tranny, JohnE, Shonen, and Shaan (it's on the bench of Wrestler, Chien and Banks). And animation Turbo was hammered by Despicable Me 2 and only made 76m - not great for the 11 who selected it.

On the upswing, Grown-Ups 2 performed almost like the original, and currently has $125m to its name. Nice pickin from Wrestler, Tranny, and W. Sadly nobody saw The Conjuring coming, which will earn around $130m. I was the only one to avoid Wolverine 2, and while it sickened me to see it open to 55m, it's dropping so hard it may not make it to 130. So I'm partly vindicated, even if that's still twice what Die Hard 5 earned. Ugh.

As for August, The Smurfs 2 also disappointed and will struggle to hit $70m (unfortunate for Busc, Wrestler, John E, Empire, Banks, Shonen, Shaan, and SS), Planes looks like it will earn about the same (just on Wrestler's bench), and Elysium probably won't make it to $90m (annoying for Brock, Tranny, UDM, Empire, W, Shaan, and myself).

So there were plenty of surprises, enough to suggest there's no obvious winner of the game yet. I'm not posting any ranks just yet, as it's pointless until closer to the end of the year when the summer films have closed and we're relying on Christmas films to win this damn thing. The remaining films to open are a lot less now (11), with the next one in the game being Cloudy 2 (Sept 27th), and after that it's the biggest question mark of the quarter: Ender's Game.

User avatar
JohnErle
Snake Plissken
Posts: 2905
Joined: October 22nd, 2009, 4:01 am
Contact:

Re: 2013 Super Contest - Pick the Top 20 Films

Post by JohnErle »

I just saw this, so here's a belated thanks for the recap. Not picking WWZ or The Heat is something I probably won't bounce back from, and I made a few other bad choices this summer too. Still, at least I was right about you being wrong about Wolverine. If I can't be right all the time, you being wrong is the next best thing. ;-)

User avatar
BanksIsDaFuture
Jack Torrance
Posts: 6513
Joined: October 23rd, 2009, 4:09 pm

Re: 2013 Super Contest - Pick the Top 20 Films

Post by BanksIsDaFuture »

I guess this year we learned there is a such thing as a cartoon overload. Monsters U. only survived because it came before the giant monster that was Despicable Me 2. $350M and it totally destroyed Monsters U's legs, Turbo, The Smurfs 2, and Planes. Epic failed on it's own though :lol:
Alexandra Daddario: Eyes of a Demon, Face of My Future Ex-Wife

User avatar
numbersix
Darth Vader
Posts: 11545
Joined: October 21st, 2009, 2:34 pm

Re: 2013 Super Contest - Pick the Top 20 Films

Post by numbersix »

JohnErle wrote:I just saw this, so here's a belated thanks for the recap. Not picking WWZ or The Heat is something I probably won't bounce back from, and I made a few other bad choices this summer too. Still, at least I was right about you being wrong about Wolverine. If I can't be right all the time, you being wrong is the next best thing. ;-)
Well deep down we both know I choose to be wrong just to make your day a little better. Charity failing.

User avatar
JohnErle
Snake Plissken
Posts: 2905
Joined: October 22nd, 2009, 4:01 am
Contact:

Re: 2013 Super Contest - Pick the Top 20 Films

Post by JohnErle »

Charity Failing is my favourite REM song. It's also the reason I picked Smurfs 2.

(From now on, I'm avoiding all Katy Perry-related film projects like the plague.)

Post Reply