Weekend Tracking 11/14

[W]

It looks like a pretty good weekend for 2012. I put it at about $60 M opening and that's about what its going to do, barring something crazy. Precious is dominant in its second weekend as well, probably netting 2 or 3 T5 and 5 PTA. Here's some estimates:

Deadline.com:
1. 2012 $23.7 FRI/$61+ M 3 day
2. ACC $5.75 F/$20 3
3. Goats $3/$6
4. 4th King $3/$6
5. Precious $3/$6 (over $30,000 PTA)

Mr. Fox $17,000 + PTA
Pirate Radio $879,000/$2.7 M

Lee's
1. 2012 $60,000,000 $17,626 PTA
2. ACC $20 m
3. Goats $6,000,000 $2,446
4. Precious $6,000,000 $34,483
5. 4th Kind $5,250,000 $2,075
6. MJ $5 M

Pirate Radio $2,750,000

[W]

EXCLUSIVE STEVE MASON EARLY FRIDAY & 3-DY ESTIMATES
FOR WEEKEND OF NOVEMBER 13-15

1. NEW - 2012 (Sony) - $25M Fri, $60M 3-day - $60M cume
2. A Christmas Carol (Disney) - $5.5M Fri - $20.4M 3-day - $61.3M cume
3. The Men Who Stare At Goats (Overture) - $2M Fri - $6.2M 3-day - $23.3M cume
4. The Fourth Kind (Universal) - $1.9M Fri - $5.6M 3-day - $21.4M cume
5. Precious: Based on the novel "Push" by Sapphire (Lionsgate) - $1.75M Fri - $5.3M 3-day - $8.1M cume
*Paranormal Activity (Paramount) - $1.5M Fri - $4.3M 3-day - $104.1M cume
*NEW - Pirate Radio (Focus) - $1M Fri - $2.9M 3-day - $2.9M cume

[Shrykespeare]

Hmmm... good for Precious. Guess my $6M prediction for Pirate Radio really WAS wishful thinking.

Certainly didn't figure Precious would get a Top 5 point in only 174 flippin' theaters.

[J.I.]

From the boxofficemojo numbers it looks like precious could get third place this weekend. Insane.

Also very good for 2012.

[Buscemi]

I'm already seeing a big second week drop for 2012, with the onslaught of New Moon, The Blind Side, Planet 51 and the wide expansion of Precious coming. Could we see it drop out of the Top 5 next week?

[W]

no... If it did really bad and dropped 66%, Precious, Blind Side, and 51 would have to all hit over $20 M. Precious isn't going to open wide enough for that (plus its not mainstream enough to have a $20 M weekend if it were wide). The Blind Side would have to do well (50/50 shot). Planet 51 looks like a dud. Plus, I don't think its dropping that much, though it easily could (Day After Tomorrow dropped 59.5% when HP# came out the next week). I see it at #2 next weekend. ACC will even make one of the last three spots because it should be a pretty good hold.

[undeadmonkey]

2012 and New Moon have very different audiences. I think 2012 will have a +50% drop but thats kinda of a given with such a big opening, but there's no way though that it'll drop out of the top 5

[Buscemi]

I figured that 2012 and New Moon had the same audience: teenagers. 2012 has the teen boys and those teen boys will be dragged to New Moon by their teen girlfriends (at least I don't have that problem, one of my best friends who is a girl found Twilight ridiculous and my best friend think Twilight is one of the worst movies of all-time). Meanwhile, the teen boys will become envious as the girls will dream of fucking Pattinson.

Honestly, a 70-75% drop would not surprise me.

[Shrykespeare]

BOM Friday Estimates

1. 2012 - $23.7M
2. Xmas Carol - $5.6M
3. Goats - $1.95M
4. Precious - $1.94M
5. 4th Kind - $1.8M

11. Pirate Radio - $880K

And Paranormal Activity cracks $100M. Wow.

[nickb1016]

saying that 2012 is going to drop by over 70% is silly. The movie increased on saturday and was evenly split across genders and ages. In fact 55% was over 25 years old. It also recieved an overall B+ cinemascore rating. This will probably drop by about 55%. 60% is possible but this should hold fine despite New Moon. The Twilight movie will have a huge friday which will hurt most of the marketplace, but i expect for most movies to recover nicely as New Moon has a massive friday to saturday drop of at least 40%.

Also New Moon, 2012, The Blind Side, Precious, A Christmas Carol, and Planet 51 are the films out there set to take in any meaningful amount of money. There is plenty of room for all of them.

early prediction
1. New Moon - 105.7M
2. 2012 - 31.9M
3. Blind Side - 17.7M
4. XMas Carol- 14.4M
5. Precious - 11.9M (im guessing it will got to about 400 or 500 theaters)
6. Planet 51 - 8.2 M

[J.I.]

Yeah 2012 did fine throughout the weekend, so it should hold strong. And Couples Retreat broke $100 million finally. Precious is like deja vu all over again from five weeks ago.

[BanksIsDaFuture]

$100M 3day for New Moon?

Hmmm...I guess it's possible.

And it's funny how Precious is doing almost exactly the same as Paranormal Activity at the same point. Can Precious hit $100M? (If Slumdog Millionaire can, I think it's def plausible.)

[transformers2]

Precious's numbers are just astounding. I am glad it is doing well since I have it on pretty much every slate. On another note i think its very possible that New Moon can do 100 mill in its 1st weekend. My friend just got a job at the local AMC and said that there is already 10 sellouts in pre-sales for it which apparently is more than The Dark Knight had.

[Shrykespeare]

BOM Sunday:

Top 5

5 points - 2012, $65M
4 points - A Christmas Carol, $22.3M
3 points - The Men Who Stare at Goats - $6.2M
2 points - Precious, $6.1M
1 point - This Is It - $5.1M


PTA

5 points - Fantastic Mr. Fox, 65,000
4 points - Precious, 35,000
3 points - 2012, 19,095
2 points - The Messenger, 12,500
1 point - An Education (21 total), 6,133


Early impressions for Round Nine... this is going to be SO CLOSE. I can STILL barely make an educated call against who is in the most danger.

Interesting thing: 18/19 players have New Moon in the BOFYR9 (only thswrestler doesn't). 22/24 have it in BOHYR4 (only wrestler and SuperShaan do not).

In both Ultimate September leagues, everyone in the RZ has New Moon (except RonBurgundy in the HY). Could it get any more bunched?

[Buscemi]

And to think that almost everyone doubted Fantastic Mr. Fox's limited release chances.