Future Tracking From Exhibitors

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Shrykespeare
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Post by Shrykespeare »

Latest Predictions from BoxOffice.com:


1/24 The Turning 12.5/32
1/24 The Gentlemen 11/35
1/24 The Last Full Measure n/a

1/31 The Rhythm Section 12/38
1/31 Gretel and Hansel 5.5/11

2/7 Birds of Prey 49/125

2/14 Sonic the Hedgehog 26/86
2/14 Fantasy Island 17/44
2/14 The Photograph 15/35

2/21 Call of the Wild 15/50
2/21 Brahms: The Boy 2 8/17.8

2/28 The Invisible Man 30/80

3/6 Onward 60/227
3/6 The Way Back 13/43.5

3/13 I Still Believe 14.5/49
3/13 Bloodshot 14/36
3/13 My Spy 10/36




Bloodshot
Opening Weekend Range: $12 – 17 million

PROS:

Vin Diesel’s presence could aid appeal to general moviegoers not familiar with his comic book character or its parent brand, Valiant Comics.

The lack of new releases aiming for adult male audiences in early-to-mid March will be a competitive advantage for this pic if reviews come in on the positive side.

CONS:

As mentioned, very few potential moviegoers are familiar with the character. Initial social media footprints reflect a potentially front-loaded performance for genre fans, with certain metrics comparable more to last year’s Hellboy reboot than Diesel’s xXx or Riddick franchise entries or films with established IP like Tomb Raider or Pacific Rim: Uprising.


I Still Believe
Opening Weekend Range: $16 – 21 million

PROS:

As the spiritual (no pun intended) follow-up from the team behind 2018’s I Can Only Imagine, faith-based audiences and fans of that $83.5 million domestic breakout are expected to show up for singer Jeremy Camp’s story.

With nearly a full month before Easter weekend, positive word of mouth could again help generate healthy legs into April — particularly given the lack of other faith films opening in this corridor.

CONS:

It remains to be seen whether this film’s focus on a romantic angle will inspire the kind of buzz as I Can Only Imagine‘s broader appeal or narrow the target audience a bit more.


My Spy
Opening Weekend Range: $8 – 13 million

PROS:

Star Dave Bautista will hope to bring along his older male and family fans fostered by his turns as Drax in Disney’s Marvel films.

Early trailer and social media trends are comparable to Playing with Fire, suggesting initially moderate family appeal with the potential to develop staying power during the Spring Break window.

CONS:

Multiple release delays aren’t typically an encouraging sign, while proximity to Pixar’s Onward (opening one week earlier) and Disney’s Mulan (two weeks later) will be challenging given the shared target audiences.



Estimated Location Counts

The Gentlemen (2,000 on January 24)
The Last Full Measure (Moderate on January 24)
The Turning (2,500 on January 24)
Gretel and Hansel (2,400 on January 31)
The Rhythm Section (2,800 on January 31)
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Buscemi2
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Post by Buscemi2 »

I'm thinking My Spy doesn't even hit $10 million its whole run. It's been delayed so many times that I'm sure many are convinced it's been released already.
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Post by Buscemi2 »

I saw that Sonic is tracking in the mid $40 million range. Which makes me wonder how. I can't help but think of the My Little Pony movie with it, as both properties' fans are pretty similar.

Maybe it's because they actually tried with this one?
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Shrykespeare
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Post by Shrykespeare »

Latest Predictions from BoxOffice.com:



1/31 The Rhythm Section 10/30
1/31 Gretel and Hansel 5/10

2/7 Birds of Prey 49/125

2/14 Sonic the Hedgehog 33/115
2/14 Fantasy Island 15.5/40
2/14 The Photograph 13/30

2/21 Call of the Wild 15/50
2/21 Brahms: The Boy 2 8/17.8

2/28 The Invisible Man 30/80

3/6 Onward 60/227
3/6 The Way Back 13/43.5

3/13 I Still Believe 14.5/49
3/13 Bloodshot 14/36
3/13 My Spy 10/36

3/20 A Quiet Place Part II 72/168






A Quiet Place Part II
Opening Weekend Range: $60 – 80 million

PROS:

The first film was a runaway success for Paramount two years ago after an intense and effective marketing campaign helped generate excitement for the original property, delivering a $50.2 million domestic opening weekend — the highest ever for an original film in April.

The original’s ability to build on that strong opening with a 3.75x multiplier proved it wasn’t front-loaded and that audiences were incredibly receptive to the film. Staying power was more akin to that of the first Conjuring film than front-loaded examples like It or Halloween.

Early social metrics for the sequel are strong as the trailer has generated sentiment and impressions comparable to previous blockbuster openings from the genre like Us and the aforementioned Halloween. An opening on that scale would land this sequel in the top ten March openings of all-time (Us holds the horror genre record for the same month at $71.1 million).

Emily Blunt’s return — as well as another directorial effort from John Krasinski — provide the kind of creative consistency that should fuel hype for the apparent world-building sequel.

CONS:

Despite generally enthusiastic responses, the first trailer suggests this film will be less about “staying quiet” while doubling down on the amount of action taking place. If indicative of the film itself, that would deviate from part of the first film’s successful formula, while placing further importance on the story moving forward organically without falling into the traps of genre sequels.

With a potential — if not likely — higher opening weekend than the previous film (provided pre-release reviews and buzz hold to current indications), it’s safe to expect more front-loading in the long run, especially since the sequel will have to compete with Mulan and April’s No Time to Die for certain audience segments and premium screens.


Estimated Location Counts

Gretel and Hansel (2,500+ studio estimate)
The Rhythm Section (3,000 studio estimate)
Birds of Prey (and the Fantabulous Emancipation of One Harley Quinn) (3,900+ projection)
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Buscemi2
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Post by Buscemi2 »

I wouldn't be surprised to see a massive dropoff with A Quiet Place Part II. Based on the trailer, it seems that they dropped the big sell of the first film (you know, it being a quiet place) and it's now just a generic horror film. Also, replacing John Krasinski with Cillian Murphy feels like a large step down in terms of relevance.
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Shrykespeare
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Post by Shrykespeare »

Wow, the numbers for Sonic just keep going up and up...


Latest Predictions from BoxOffice.com:


2/7 Birds of Prey 49/135

2/14 Sonic the Hedgehog 34/118.5
2/14 Fantasy Island 15.5/40
2/14 The Photograph 13/30

2/21 Call of the Wild 15/50
2/21 Brahms: The Boy 2 8/17.8

2/28 The Invisible Man 30/80

3/6 Onward 60/227
3/6 The Way Back 13/43.5

3/13 I Still Believe 14.5/49
3/13 Bloodshot 14/36
3/13 My Spy 10/36

3/20 A Quiet Place Part II 72/168

3/27 Mulan 46/132





Mulan
Opening Weekend Range: $40 – 60 million

PROS:

Second to no one, Disney has all but mastered the ability to capitalize on existing IP and nostalgia. In recent years, they’ve sent remakes of The Lion King, Beauty and the Beast, Aladdin, The Jungle Book, Maleficent, and Cinderella to varying degrees of big box office success.

As audiences and the industry embrace diversity on the big screen, the appeal of a large scale, English language film starring a predominately Asian cast could attract a strong turnout from Asian-American communities and families.

Opening three weeks after Pixar’s Onward, there should be enough of a gap to prevent significant competition — especially given the former’s lean toward young male audiences, in opposition to this feature’s reliance upon young women.

Trailer impressions are notably high as the film received a considerable amount of promotion in front of blockbusters like Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker and Frozen II over the holidays.


CONS:

Though a success in its own right, the 1998 Mulan was a more down-to-earth box office performer compared to the earlier blockbuster successes of Disney’s previous golden animation age in the early 1990s.

Although the film has some distance between it and another Disney opener early in March, April will bring about a fair amount of potential competition for younger viewers with Peter Rabbit 2 (April 3, one week after) and Trolls: World Tour (April 17).

Rumors of significant reshoots (not entirely confirmed by Disney) and a few key changes from the original animated film could hinder excitement among devoted fans of the latter.

Though generating strong views in terms of numbers, the film’s trailers have incurred mixed sentiment across social media metrics. This is not always indicative of long-term success (see last year’s Aladdin, for example), but combined with other factors mentioned here, we’re somewhat cautious in forecasts for the time being while leaving breakout potential on the table.



Upcoming Estimated Location Counts

Birds of Prey (4,100 studio estimate)
Fantasy Island (2,700)
The Photograph (2,300)
Sonic the Hedgehog (4,000)
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Buscemi2
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Post by Buscemi2 »

I saw that Birds of Prey's pre-sales were at the level of Joker and Aquaman. Tracking should be much more bullish.
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Shrykespeare
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

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Not at all surprising.

What was the last movie to come out that a) was aimed toward girls in their mid-teens and up and b) wasn't a complete disaster?

Charlie's Angels was a bust. So was Like a Boss. Little Women skewed toward an older demographic, and Frozen II skewed younger. So what was it?

Honestly, I think you'd have to go all the way back to Hustlers. Plus, now that Joker's run is all but done, it's the perfect time to release something else that crosses into comic-book-world territory. There won't be another film that does that until Black Widow (no, I'm not even considering New Mutants in this equation).
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Buscemi2
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

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Hustlers did have that B1G1 promotion to help its take. That might have added around $20 million to the final gross.

As for The New Mutants, I'm thinking it makes less than Fantastic Four 2015. I saw the new trailer a week ago and I didn't think that anything would be worse than a director of romances trying to do an edgy horror film with X-Men characters. Then I saw Anya Taylor-Joy attempting to play an Eastern European character, accent and all. Somehow, she might be less believable than Jessica Chastain as that alien thing in Dark Phoenix.

Without the Marvel name, it would probably make less than Saint Maud's wide expansion on the same day.
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

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I would say Countdown was the last successful film aimed at teens, but only because the budget was low.
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undeadmonkey
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Post by undeadmonkey »

I suspect Mulan will go more in the way of Dumbo than Aladdin.

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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

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Mulan's been testing horribly and Disney apparently had to order reshoots. Also, there is that controversy involving the lead.
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Post by Buscemi2 »

In one of the more significant examples of a film having a higher rating than its previous installment or version, Mulan is rated PG-13. The original was rated G.

Not sure if this not being your mother's Mulan is going to help its box office take.
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Post by Buscemi2 »

Early word on Onward seems to be disappointing, with a 62 on Metacritic. Disney's going to need those sneak previews to really help word of mouth if they want to continue allowing Pixar to make things that aren't sequels.
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Post by Shrykespeare »

Latest Predictions from BoxOffice.com:


2/28 The Invisible Man 30/80

3/6 Onward 60/227
3/6 The Way Back 9/28

3/13 I Still Believe 13/43
3/13 Bloodshot 12/30
3/13 The Hunt 10.5/25
3/13 My Spy 7.5/25

3/20 A Quiet Place Part II 72/168

3/27 Mulan 48/138

4/3 Peter Rabbit 2: The Runaway 18.5/71
4/3 The New Mutants 17/37
4/3 The Lovebirds 12/42

4/10 No Time To Die 88/269

4/17 Trolls: World Tour 23.5/81
4/17 Antlers n/a
4/18 Blue Story n/a





Trolls: World Tour
Opening Weekend Range: $17 – 27 million

PROS:

Anna Kendrick and Justin Timberlake return as part of an all-star voice cast that should help attract kids and parents again, especially those of the latter who grew up with the popular toys.

The first film captured the prior generation’s nostalgia three-and-a-half years ago when Trolls bowed to a strong $46.6 million domestic opening November 2016 — onward to $153.7 million stateside and $347 million globally.

Opening two weeks after Peter Rabbit 2 and one month before SCOOB!, there’s a fair runway for playability. Appeal to mothers and daughters is also notable.


CONS:

Advance models indicate this sequel isn’t driving quite the same level of social media engagement as its predecessor.

A trend of animated sequels falling sharply from their predecessors has become quite apparent in recent years, with relevant comparisons for this particular IP being franchise follow-ups like The Angry Birds Movie 2, The LEGO Movie 2: The Second Part, and Smurfs: The Lost Village.



Estimated Location Counts

The Invisible Man (3,500 studio estimate on February 28)
Onward (3,900)
The Way Back (2,700)
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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