Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Discuss weekly box office numbers, PTA numbers, and date changes.

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Buscemi2
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Post by Buscemi2 »

Cinemacon reception was good. However, Aladdin didn't do well at Cinemacon and that of course made millions.

Also, I feel it's going to be hard to get audiences to pay the extra $3 for 3-D. It seems they both don't care much for 3-D anymore and they've chosen not to tell the difference between native 3-D (this being a rare one) and post-converted 3-D.
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Post by Screen203 »

Buscemi2 wrote:Cinemacon reception was good. However, Aladdin didn't do well at Cinemacon and that of course made millions.

Also, I feel it's going to be hard to get audiences to pay the extra $3 for 3-D. It seems they both don't care much for 3-D anymore and they've chosen not to tell the difference between native 3-D (this being a rare one) and post-converted 3-D.
I see Gemini Man being the bomb of October. Audience reaction to the trailer has been toxic when the trailers are shown, and Paramount has the worst marketing of any studio...

Agreed with the 3D though.
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

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Latest Predictions from BoxOffice.com:


9/6 It: Chapter Two 119/290

9/13 Hustlers 21/60
9/13 The Goldfinch 9.5/31

9/20 Ad Astra 20/65
9/20 Rambo: Last Blood 14.5/35
9/20 Downton Abbey n/a

9/27 Abominable 22.5/75

10/4 Joker 81/180

10/11 Gemini Man 28/90
10/11 The Addams Family 18/70
10/11 The Current War n/a
10/11 Jexi n/a

10/18 Maleficent: Mistress of Evil 37/110
10/18 Zombieland 2: Double Tap 30/77





Maleficent: Mistress of Evil
Opening Weekend Range: $30 – 50 million

PROS:

The return of star Angelina Jolie is a big advantage considering her presence as one of Disney’s most iconic villains/antiheroes helped the 2014 predecessor power its way to a $69.4 million domestic opening weekend, finishing with a strong $241.4 million / $758.5 million global run.

On top of the fact that the Disney brand name is as safe a bet as there is among families, there are very few films — let alone any with built-in appeal — aiming to draw young female audiences between summer’s end and mid-November’s Frozen II. The corridor for a leggy run — smartly timed close to Halloween — certainly exists here.

This sequel’s trailers have thus far driven solid online activity across social media platforms, outperforming trends of recent Disney pics like Dumbo and A Wrinkle In Time.

CONS:

Arriving five years after the first film, there’s reason to wonder if some of the heat from its success has cooled off and left this sequel in a position to experience diminished returns. An early comp in this arena would be the six year gap between Alice In Wonderland and Alice Through the Looking Glass. The latter sequel dropped 77 percent from its blockbuster predecessor’s domestic total, and this year has similarly seen several family franchises (such as The LEGO Movie 2 and Secret Life of Pets 2) experience sharp drops from their first films.

Competition from The Addams Family could be a factor if that animated title generates positive word of mouth among families starting one week before.

With Columbus Day landing on the Monday before release, opening weekend won’t be able to take full advantage of a no-school Monday.


Zombieland 2: Double Tap
Opening Weekend Range: $24 – 34 million

PROS:

The original Zombieland has evolved into a cult classic over the past decade following its strong $24.7 million domestic opening in October 2009, onward to $75.6 million stateside and $102.4 million worldwide.

The return of its predecessor’s entire original cast (now even more prodigious thanks to the star careers developed by Emma Stone and Jesse Eisenberg) — as well as the film’s creative team in director Ruben Fleischer (also fresh off the success of Venom) and writers Rhett Reese and Paul Wernick (Deadpool) — provide encouragement for a worthy sequel.

With a near-two-week lead on Halloween, the timing could be perfect for a solid box office run with no direct competition entering the market after this pic’s release date.

CONS:

Similar to the other film covered in our report this week, it’s worth questioning whether or not the long wait for this sequel will hold back the kind of hype it might have had earlier in the decade. That said, fans will be more than fine with the wait if the sequel proves to be as crowd-pleasing as its predecessor.

Opening in Joker‘s third weekend isn’t a major concern, though it is a notable factor given similar target audiences and if the DC title generates significant staying power.
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Post by Buscemi2 »

I am not getting the high tracking of Hustlers at all. There's been almost no marketing, the director's track record is iffy, and outside of Wu, have any of the actors had a hit lately. Also, just because someone is popular on social media, it doesn't mean their Instagram followers will pay $9 to watch them in a movie (remember Charlotte McKinney's attempt at a film career?).
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Post by NicodemustheSage »

I think "Abominable"'s going to go much higher than projected. $100M total earnings, easily.

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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Post by Buscemi2 »

Smallfoot had Channing Tatum, one of the biggest stars in film today, and failed to hit $100 million. And Missing Link was Laika's lowest grossing film by a mile. I don't see how Abominable's going to play any different from the other Yeti movies.
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Post by Chienfantome »

I have to agree with Boosch, I don't see Abominable going any higher that what box-office says. It looks like a geneeric animated film that often get released at this time of the year and do 60/70 million and everyone quickly forgets.
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Post by NicodemustheSage »

Man, Deadline has "Last Blood" tracking in the mid-$20s. I'll take it, sure, but I wonder.

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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Post by Brockster »

10/18 Maleficent: Mistress of Evil 37/110
For the sake of my draft, I'm sure hoping for higher than 110M. When I made my draft board I had it at 150M.

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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Post by undeadmonkey »

Brockster wrote:
10/18 Maleficent: Mistress of Evil 37/110
For the sake of my draft, I'm sure hoping for higher than 110M. When I made my draft board I had it at 150M.

i think itll do better

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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Post by Screen203 »

undeadmonkey wrote:
Brockster wrote:
10/18 Maleficent: Mistress of Evil 37/110
For the sake of my draft, I'm sure hoping for higher than 110M. When I made my draft board I had it at 150M.

i think itll do better
BoxOffice Pro's number is pretty much where I see it grossing. A little underwhelming but no Alice 2 - I think that the Jolie-vs-Pheiffer hook and the Halloween release date will help it stand out from the family competition.
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Post by Shrykespeare »

Latest Predictions from BoxOffice.com:


9/13 Hustlers 28/77
9/13 The Goldfinch 8/25

9/20 Ad Astra 18/58.5
9/20 Rambo: Last Blood 22/53
9/20 Downton Abbey 18/?

9/27 Abominable 22.5/75

10/4 Joker 103/210

10/11 Gemini Man 28/90
10/11 The Addams Family 18/70
10/11 The Current War n/a
10/11 Jexi n/a

10/18 Maleficent: Mistress of Evil 37/110
10/18 Zombieland 2: Double Tap 30/77

10/25 Black and Blue 12/35
10/25 The Last Full Measure n/a
10/25 Countdown n/a

11/1 Terminator: Dark Fate 38/85
11/1 Motherless Brooklyn n/a





Terminator: Dark Fate
Opening Weekend Range: $35 – 45 million

PROS:

The reunion of Arnold Schwarzenegger and Linda Hamilton’s Sarah Connor character for the first time since 1991’s blockbuster Terminator 2: Judgment Day is a fair selling point for die hard fans of the franchise, especially with the promise of at least one or two more cameos/roles by veteran actors of James Cameron’s original two films.

Speaking of Cameron, his role as a hands-on producer with this sequel has fans arguably more intrigued than they were for the three sequels since Cameron last helmed a film in the franchise. Featured heavily in marketing already, his behind-the-scenes presence already helped Alita: Battle Angel achieve solid worldwide grosses earlier this year.

After early October’s Joker, there aren’t many releases on the slate catering to men of a certain age until mid-November’s Ford v. Ferrari and 21 Bridges. If this entry truly does win back jaded fans and casual audiences, there could be room for more staying power than 2015’s Terminator: Genisys showed at the box office.

Despite bearish expectations stateside, global potential is significant for this sequel given Cameron and the franchise’s pull with overseas audiences: Alita earned 79 percent of its $405 million worldwide box office from international territories, and Terminator: Genisys itself earned 80 percent of its $440.6 million global run outside North America. A similar share is to be expected for Dark Fate.

CONS:

Regardless of fan anticipation for what Cameron might do (along with Deadpool director Tim Miller) to restore confidence in the series, the Terminator franchise has seen a sharp rate of declining returns with each sequel made over the last 16 years. 2003’s Rise of the Machines ($150.4 million) earned 27 percent less than Judgment Day ($205.9 million) domestically, 2009’s Salvation ($125.3 million) dropped 17 percent from there, and 2015’s Genisys ($89.8 million) dropped another 28 percent at the box office. The latter two have audience scores of just 54 percent and 53 percent, respectively, on Rotten Tomatoes.

Initial teaser trailer reactions were largely mixed online and didn’t inspire enough confidence to suggest this would break out beyond the target fan base. The most recent trailer has seen more positive reception, but there’s still work to be done in the marketing department if this is going to reverse the franchise’s trend.

Comparable franchises have also continued to lose audience interest, with 2017’s Alien: Covenant ($74.3 million) being a fair comparison due to the number of sequels in its franchise and the fan hype for its original filmmaker (Ridley Scott) at the helm. Similar to the Alien franchise, the confusion of exactly how Dark Fate relates (or doesn’t relate) to recent Terminator films adds a confusing barrier to entry for the uninitiated.
Notable Updates This Week



The frame of September 20 continues to look very competitive, with outlooks now favoring a possible #1 debut for Rambo: Last Blood and a closer race than expected between Ad Astra and Downton Abbey.

Models for Joker continue to improve by leaps and bounds with each passing week. Of notable impact in recent days has been the film’s hugely positive reception at Venice Film Festival and the ensuing wave of gushing critics’ reviews. Online chatter is embracing the hype, and our metrics now point to this clearly being the “water cooler” type of movie that inspires interest from a variety of demographics — not unlike another creepy clown movie from Warner Bros. in September 2017. We remain cautious in expectations for staying power as the R-rated film is likely to be divisive among general audiences, but odds at becoming the first-ever $100 million+ opener in October history look increasingly favorable. At the very least, becoming one of the biggest R-rated debuts ever and topping Venom‘s standing $80.3 million record for October look like safe bets for now.
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Post by Buscemi2 »

You might want to lower those $100 million for Abominable expectations a bit. Early word is very mixed.
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Post by Shrykespeare »

Latest Predictions from BoxOffice.com:

9/27 Abominable 22.5/80

10/4 Joker 103/210

10/11 Gemini Man 28/85
10/11 The Addams Family 18/70
10/11 The Current War n/a
10/11 Jexi 8/25

10/18 Maleficent: Mistress of Evil 37/110
10/18 Zombieland 2: Double Tap 30/77

10/25 Black and Blue 12/35
10/25 The Last Full Measure n/a
10/25 Countdown n/a

11/1 Terminator: Dark Fate 38/85
11/1 Motherless Brooklyn n/a

11/8 Doctor Sleep 25/92
11/8 Last Christmas 15/80
11/8 Midway 13/47
11/8 Playing With Fire 8/33

11/15 Ford v Ferrari 32/115
11/15 Charlie's Angels 29/78
11/15 The Good Liar n/a
11/15 All Rise






Charlie’s Angels
Opening Weekend Range: $25 – 35 million

PROS:

Kristen Stewart and Naomi Scott — the latter off her breakout role in Aladdin — provide notable leads in this latest reboot of the 1970s television series. Names like those and that of director Elizabeth Banks (Pitch Perfect franchise) will hopefully bolster appeal to a young female audience not familiar with the series or the feature films of the early aughts.

The recently released single “Don’t Call Me Angel” from Ariana Grande, Lana Del Rey, and Miley Cyrus could provide marketing synergy over the next eight weeks after it scored very positive results across social media.

The demand for more high profile / tentpole films led by empowering female characters could help this stand out during the holidays with multiple generations of women if reviews and audience reception are strong enough.

CONS:

While the first two feature films were domestic hits in 2000 and 2003, earning $125.3 million and $100.8 million respectively, it remains to be seen how in-demand another reboot of the property is among young and adult female audiences. Much of that audience will have a fair number of choices in November between Maleficent: Mistress of Evil, Last Christmas, and Frozen II. Initial comparisons include Sony’s own Men In Black International, which similarly re-casted its franchise in an effort to reignite the brand with a youthful slant.

Although very preliminary, early sales trends at various ticketing outlets appear soft. There’s still plenty of time for that to change, but marketing may have some work ahead in terms of converting film awareness into interest as the next eight weeks progress.


Ford v Ferrari
Opening Weekend Range: $25 – 35 million

PROS:

The combined star appeal of Matt Damon and Christian Bale is a major driver behind this biopic, as is the success of director James Mangold (Logan, 3:10 to Yuma, Walk the Line). The turnout by gearheads and potential appeal to both men and women underscores a potentially diverse audience.

Counter-programming against holiday blockbuster fare is a very encouraging play, particularly given the success of Bohemian Rhapsody in a similar corridor last year. Trailer reactions and early social trends are indicative of a leggy crowd-pleaser in the making.

CONS:

It’s tough to rule out some crossover for the target adult male audience between this and Terminator: Dark Fate, opening one week later, should that sci-fi pic generate positive reception.

Appeal to adult female audiences could be hindered upfront if Charlie’s Angels does end up taking off with that demographic.
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Post by Buscemi2 »

I'm getting Men in Black International vibes with Charlie's Angels. Was rebooting this franchise (again) even necessary?

And Ford v. Ferrari might do well due to the jingoism factor but on the other hand, Le Mans isn't a big deal in the US (otherwise, Fox would have used the much superior Le Mans '66 title that explains the story better). I feel at best, it does double what Rush did (the last time we got an international racing film told from the English-speaking side).
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