Future Tracking From Exhibitors

[Chienfantome]

Thanks Brockster, I chose the word carefully

[empire13]

I'll be amazed if Seeking A Friend For The End of the World does even $20 million. Indie-themed science fiction films rarely go wide and the last time Focus released a film as counter-programming against Pixar (Evening, back in 2007), the film died very quickly.

Boosh, Carell will bring it to at least 50M. Besides, it's more comedy than sci-fi, and i think the previews were very funny.

[Shrykespeare]

Latest numbers from BoxOffice.com:

5/11 Dark Shadows 35/92 (down from 43/108)

5/18 Battleship 48/135
5/18 What to Expect When You're Expecting 20/70
5/18 The Dictator 20/65

5/25 Men in Black III 90/205 (4-day)
5/25 Chernobyl Diaries 15/31 (4-day)

6/1 Snow White and the Huntsman 60/165

6/8 Prometheus 58/200
6/8 Madagascar 3: Europe's Most Wanted 42/140

6/15 Rock of Ages 32/120
6/15 That's My Boy 30/85

6/22 Brave 58/220
6/22 Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter 21/53
6/22 Seeking a Friend For the End of the World 13/49

6/29 G.I. Joe: Retaliation 48/148
6/29 Magic Mike 22/78
6/29 Madea's Witness Protection 19/43
6/29 People Like Us 6.5/23


We've added four new releases to our Long Range Forecast this week: G.I. Joe: Retaliation, Magic Mike, Tyler Perry's Madea's Witness Protection, and People Like Us.

The last time the calendar fell on the same dates was in 2007 when Ratatouille and Live Free or Die Hard opened to $47 million and $33.4 million, respectively. The latter opened on the preceding Wednesday. The overall market gross for that pre-Independence Day weekend reached $155.4 million.

G.I. Joe: Retaliation

PROS:

- Adding Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson to a cast has recently proven to be of benefit in Fast Five and Journey 2: The Mysterious Island.- Channing Tatum is a bigger draw now than he was for the first film back in 2009, having starred in two of the top five films of 2012 so far (as of this writing).
- Opening before the July 4th holiday could help give it some extra traction.
- The shift in tone from the first film might attract older action fans and widen the demographic appeal.
- The trailers have been very well-received online.

CONS:

- While not universally hated, the first film isn't something that most have clamored for a sequel to.
- The marketing seems less kid-friendly, a huge change from the promotional tone of its predecessor.
- The kiddie audience that helped drive the first film will have a lot of other options in the marketplace: Brave and Madagascar 3 will already be in release, while The Amazing Spider-Man and Ice Age: Continental Drift will be hot on its heels.
- The extent of Channing Tatum's role in this sequel seems to be up in the air. His female fans will likely opt to see Magic Mike instead.


Magic Mike

PROS:

- Channing Tatum is proving to be a real draw this year.
- 21 Jump Street being rated R certainly didn't hurt its box office performance.
- Any woman with a pulse is going to want to watch this movie, its as simple as that.

CONS:

- Channing Tatum vs. Channing Tatum.
- Will men agree to see it after women agree to see G.I. Joe?
- Its biggest enemy is going to be the screen count and whether they cap it with a moderate release of 2,000 to 2,500 or go all in with 3,000+ (if its available given how busy the box office will be).


Tyler Perry's Madea's Witness Protection

PROS:

- Perry still has a reliable audience to draw upon, and this could hold slightly better than his previous films thanks to the summer release date.

CONS:

- This one's not adapted from a play.
- Its true that Perry's comedies usually perform better, but the fact that Good Deeds did so poorly is not a good sign for him -- especially since he has three movies slated for upcoming release. Over-saturation could have an effect.


People Like Us

PROS:

- Against all the summer blockbusters, a smaller drama like this serves as fair counter-programming for adults looking to get away from louder, more explosive fare.
- The film marks the directorial debut of Alex Kurtzman who, alongside writing and producing partner Roberto Orci, has produced a solid resume over the years.
- The recognizable ensemble cast could help draw the casual interest of a small audience.

CONS:

- Competition is heavy that weekend and neither Pine or Banks have proven to be draws on their own yet.
- Screen count could be an issue.
- The plot seems potentially off-putting for mainstream audiences.
- Kurtzman's (and Orci's) previous successes were cut from the blockbuster cloth that this film is clearly not a part of.
- Women will go see Magic Mike over this. It's that simple.

[W]

Magic Mike 22/78? Someone is wishing...

[numbersix]

Agreed W, it'll probably end up making half that. They're too high on GI Joe as well. I'd say $40/$110 at best.

[Buscemi]

Channing Tatum has been everywhere this year but I think G.I. Joe and Magic Mike will kill each other at the box office. Also I expect critics to destroy Magic Mike (it basically looks like Showgirls without the camp that made that film a cult classic), which would kill it with highbrow audiences.

[thswrestler160]

surprised no know has mentioned Prometheus officially being Rated R

[Buscemi]

It's not really news since Scott had been wanting an R rating since the beginning. His contract even specified that he had final cut.

[numbersix]

Yeah, but with the lack of gore (which Scott and co have been going on about in the press) there was a hope it wouldn't get an R rating. Scott wasn't cutting the film so he'd get an R-Rating, he just refused to make any changes just for the MPAA.

Anyway, an R-Rating will certainly have an impact. Hope of it hitting $200m are even more limited now. That said, if Watchmen could open to $55m in March, perhaps Prometheus could do better.

[BanksIsDaFuture]

Magic Mike will be great counter programming for the summer, ladies will flock to it. $75m sounds about right.

[Buscemi]

If men didn't flock to a movie about strippers (Showgirls, which grossed $20 million in 1995), why would women do the same?

[numbersix]

Well women did flock to The Full Monty.

However, I think Soderbergh's indie style (handheld cam, improv acting) will turn away the audience it should be aimed at.

[BanksIsDaFuture]

If men didn't flock to a movie about strippers (Showgirls, which grossed $20 million in 1995), why would women do the same?

Showgirls was rated NC17 and was never in more than 1,400 theaters.

[W]

If men didn't flock to a movie about strippers (Showgirls, which grossed $20 million in 1995), why would women do the same?

Showgirls was rated NC17 and was never in more than 1,400 theaters.

This.

And it's the highest grossing NC17 movie ever.

[Buscemi]

Adjust 1995 counts to 2012 and Showgirls would have been a 2,500-3,000 theatre movie (1,400 theatres was very wide then and the film was high-profile for its controversy and its cast and crew).

But still if Showgirls grosses just $20 million in 1995 (adjusted to about $35 million now), I can't see Magic Mike grossing over $40 million in 2012.