2022-23 Full Year Slates

[Chienfantome]

STANDINGS (up until February 26 included)

No changes in the rankings, but Six consolidates his gold medal with Cocain Bear's success.

1. Six - $1,031,710,929 (3 films - Cocaine Bear, Avatar 2, The Banshees of Inisherin)
2. Chien - $893,004,580 (1 film - The Whale)
3. Screen - $855,249,152 (3 films - Magic Mike, M3GAN, Puss in Boots : The Last Wish)
4. Tranny - $739,699,705 (1 film - Black Panther : Wakanda Forever)
5. Spectre - $720,578,514 (2 films - Missing, Plane)
6. Walleye - $628,218,440 (1 film - Jesus Revolution)
7. Shryke - $563,000,347 (2 films - Violent Night, The Fabelmans)
8. Buscemi - $380,535,525 (5 films - Ant-Man, 80 for Brady, A Man Called Otto, Women Talking, Tar)
9. Ron B - $252,688,170 (1 film - Knock at the Cabin)

Those films appear to be done :
I Wanna Dance With Somebody (Spectre, 5th round) = $23,675,593
House Party (Six, WW) = $9,002,247
Infinity Pool (Tranny, WW) = $5,078,400

3/3
Creed III (Shryke, 2nd round)
Operation Fortune : Ruse de Guerre (Six, WW)
Demon Slayer (Chien, WW)

3/10
Scream VI (Walleye, 6th round)
65 (Ron, 8th round)
Champions (Chien, WW)

3/17
Shazam! Fury of the Gods (Tranny, 2nd round)

3/24
John Wick 4 (Ron, 2nd round)
A Good Person (Spectre, WW)
The Lost King (Shryke, WW)

[numbersix]

I love that goofed-up bear.

[transformers2]

Going to need Mario to put up absurd numbers to even possibly sniff winning this thing. Taking Secret Headquarters over Scream VI, Violent Night and Cocaine Bear is going to haunt me for months.

[Chienfantome]

Going to need Mario to put up absurd numbers to even possibly sniff winning this thing.

I'm sure Mario will be a big, big hit.

Taking Secret Headquarters over Scream VI, Violent Night and Cocaine Bear is going to haunt me for months.

Don't let yourself haunted by that. I'm sure all of us made moves last April we regret. That was quite an unpredictable year in terms of what's going to go to a streaming platform in the end. Heck, I had to replace half the films I drafted.

[transformers2]

Taking Secret Headquarters over Scream VI, Violent Night and Cocaine Bear is going to haunt me for months.

Don't let yourself haunted by that. I'm sure all of us made moves last April we regret. That was quite an unpredictable year in terms of what's going to go to a streaming platform in the end. Heck, I had to replace half the films I drafted.

You're correct, it's completely absurd given the circumstances we were drafting under. But am I going to let a little thing like logic stop me from wallowing in regret over this particular decision? Absolutely not!

[Chienfantome]

[Chienfantome]

STANDINGS (up until March 5 included)
Only two months left, fellows !
Creed came back with a bang ! And it helps Shryke get closer to Walleye, but the latter has Scream VI coming up, which should help him stay at large. Boosch broke $400M thanks to the ant-man, Six won't make a fortune out of the Ruse de Guerre, but it still comforted his first place a bit more. And thanks to a Japanese anime, I am finally breaking the $900M bar, after spending months just under it.

1. Six - $1,055,077,047 (4 films - Operation Fortune, Cocaine Bear, Avatar 2, The Banshees of Inisherin)
2. Chien - $903,251,288 (2 films - Demon Slayer, The Whale)
3. Screen - $861,488,036 (3 films - Magic Mike, M3GAN, Puss in Boots : The Last Wish)
4. Tranny - $739,730,883 (1 film - Black Panther : Wakanda Forever)
5. Spectre - $721,343,454 (1 films - Missing)
6. Walleye - $642,698,685 (1 film - Jesus Revolution)
7. Shryke - $621,468,849 (3 films - Creed III, Violent Night, The Fabelmans)
8. Buscemi - $403,804,598 (5 films - Ant-Man, 80 for Brady, A Man Called Otto, Women Talking, Tar)
9. Ron B - $253,861,725 (1 film - Knock at the Cabin)


Those films appear to be done :
Plane (Spectre, 11th round) = $32,111,181


3/10
Scream VI (Walleye, 6th round)
65 (Ron, 8th round)
Champions (Chien, WW)

3/17
Shazam! Fury of the Gods (Tranny, 2nd round)

3/24
John Wick 4 (Ron, 2nd round)
A Good Person (Spectre, WW)
The Lost King (Shryke, WW)

3/31
Dungeons & Dragons (Chien, 4th round)
A Thousand and One (Tranny, WW)

[numbersix]

This is going to be so close.

Chien, you just need to make $150m from your remaining films. If Dungeons and Dragons performs well, you win.

But there's Tranny with Shazam and Mario, which could easily make $300m together.

I won't get a wink of sleep in April

[Chienfantome]

Yeah, it's gonna be a tough call.

I think I need more than $150M, as you have a bit of advance on me now with Cocaine Bear, so it's more likely I need around $170M to beat you.
If D&D performs well, that's achievable. But I'll also need the other films to do some biz too. If they do, $85M / $90M out of D&D could be enough. But I hope it does more.

The big question mark is Tranny. It feels that Shazam should do, at best, about what the first one did. But Mario Bros could be a huge hit. Tranny's probably gonna need $350M out of these too to be able to grab first spot. So he needs a big hit out of Mario. But that's doable.

April is gonna be exciting for sure.

[transformers2]

If Shazam! can do $100 mil or so, I'll feel considerably better about my chances, but that may be too much to ask for from the sequel to a minor DC project that might not factor into James Gunn's retooled universe.

Since six only 1 release left, my primary concern is aimed at Chien's sizable cluster of remaining releases. D&D and Air are wild cards with upside (an enthusiastic reaction out of South by Southwest could be a huge boost for D&D) and The Covenant should be able to rack up $15-25 mil before the game is over.

[Buscemi2]

There's been hardly any buzz for Shazam, it feels like. Seeing how many people Gunn's pissed off so far, I have to imagine that unless it's Batman or Superman, the DC movies will end up just appealing solely to the Snydercut crowd.

If only Zack had disassociated himself from Snydercut...

[Chienfantome]

Since six only 1 release left, my primary concern is aimed at Chien's sizable cluster of remaining releases. D&D and Air are wild cards with upside (an enthusiastic reaction out of South by Southwest could be a huge boost for D&D) and The Covenant should be able to rack up $15-25 mil before the game is over.

For now I still consider Six is the better placed to win, if only because he has a comfortable advance in first place. But his margin is thin for sure.
If Shazam fails to hit 100M, you're gonna need Mario to be huge. But if there's any film that's gonna be huge in the next 2 months, it will be Mario.
Even if I wish it was D&D. I'm anxious to hear about the word of mouth. But I think, I think, echoes should be good. Because I know that here in France, Paramount has screened it for the press very early, at the beginning of February. And studios don't hold press screenings that early for a dud. So if it has a cool WOM, it could be successful enough to get me to Six.

[Buscemi2]

I guess we're ignoring that everything gets a positive response out of SXSW. It's not a serious film festival.

[Chienfantome]

I'm not talking about SXSW particularly. But about the global critical response too, as the embargo will be lifted tomorrow once it opens SXSW.

[transformers2]

I guess we're ignoring that everything gets a positive response out of SXSW. It's not a serious film festival.

The headline slate of SXSW is the mainstream answer to studios putting titles at Venice, Toronto, Telluride or Cannes to help launch an awards push. It's the place to be for any studio that believes they have a crowd-pleasing spring/summer hit on their hands and as we've seen routinely over the years, the WOM can help build buzz that leads to box office success. Denying the value this fest can provide a title or trying to frame this section of the festival as something that it's not trying to be is just silly.

Also, to back up what Chien said, Paramount's bullishness on D&D extends beyond its SXSW debut. There's going to be sneak previews next weekend for Amazon Prime members, the marketing campaign has been highly visible for months and as he alluded to above, they've been screening it for weeks and the rumblings are positive. If it stumbles, it'll likely be due to people not caring about the IP enough.