Predict Your Slate! (2019-2020 Edition)

All league discussion for the currently in-play box office seasons.

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Ron Burgundy
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Re: Predict Your Slate! (2019-2020 Edition)

Post by Ron Burgundy »

Nice thread, im drunk, so might as well chime in between watching movies and sports

5/10 Poms (10)

For future advise Ron- Dont look at Div A and do some research ahead of time...

6/14 Men in Black International (3)
Actually liking this more and more for a R3 pick, should get 150 easy.

6/21 Anna (11)
Just goes to show how much i was out of touch during the draft, i know nothing of this movie....

7/12 Stuber (8)
I saw this as a spiritual sequel to: Baby Driver...im bombed out last year with The Predator, so im hopeful this is clever pickup.

7/31 Dora and the Lost City of Gold (5)
I hate to watch trailers and pick purely on that, but this one was way to good to pass up, im thinking 100+ easy

8/23 Angel Has Fallen (9)
Pure luck it fell to me, should do ok for a #9 pick

10/18 Torrance (Ben Affleck) (6)
I dunno why i choose this, im thinking its coz of Argo and The Accountant= Ben Affleck has an audience out there, esp in October. hoping for 100+ but a 60M ceiling no doubt.

10/25 The Aeronauts (14)
Thanks to Div A...


11/15 The Good Liar (7)

Possibly the Superbad movie of 2019, big risk, but hey, not many people saw Crazy Rich Asians or The Meg doing what they did $ wise...

12/20 Star Wars Episode IX: The Rise of Skywalker (1)
I really didnt want to pick this, coz i didnt like the last Star Wars movie, still, its a climax to one of the biggest franchises ever, cant pass it up.

2/21 The Call of the Wild (4)
Credit to Nico for this one, i did not have it on the radar til he picked it, i think its a chance to break 100.

3/20 A Quiet Place 2 (12)
Huh? Did this movie actually get moved to March? Blessed. I cant believe it. BS...

4/8 James Bond 25 (2)
This will prob get moved seeing as above^. That said, i got owned last draft by picking Dr Doolittle in pick 4, fingers crossed it stays in April, and i cant go past Fukanga, coz S1 True Detective was THAT good.

The Hitman's Wife's Bodyguard (13)
First one was pretty good, ill be pumped if it gets a date for this draft...

The Irishman (15)
Martin Scorsese, De Niro, Pesci....are u kidding me? I'd be disappointed if it doesn't earn a single $
“One time I wrestled a giraffe to the ground with my bare hands.” — Dale

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Buscemi2
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Re: Predict Your Slate! (2019-2020 Edition)

Post by Buscemi2 »

I haven't even heard of the lead in Anna. I was led to believe it would be Helen Mirren killing people and then I saw the trailer (of which half of it consists solely on a single fight scene it feels like we've seen before). Also, selling it as being from the creator of Lucy is a bad idea. That film made money but how many people actually liked it?
It's like what Lenin said...I am the walrus.

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transformers2
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Re: Predict Your Slate! (2019-2020 Edition)

Post by transformers2 »

6/28 Yesterday (3)
8/2 Fast & Furious Presents: Hobbs & Shaw (2)
8/14 Blinded By the Light (9)
9/13 Hustlers (8)
9/20 Downton Abbey (6)
11/8 Last Christmas (5)
12/13 Jumanji Sequel (1)
1/17 Just Mercy (7)
2/7 Peter Rabbit 2 (4)
3/20 I Still Believe (10)
4/10 Rise (Untitled Affirm Coach Project) (14)
The French Dispatch (11)
The Gentlemen (12)
Once Upon a Time in Staten Island (13)
The Lighthouse (15)


I'm not going to do movie-by-movie predictions because long-term prognostication is a practice I try to avoid, but I will say that I'm bizarrely optimistic about my slate. With the possible exception of Yesterday, I feel like I got good value throughout the draft. Stay tuned for when it all goes to hell before New Year's and I end up finishing in 7th.
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NicodemustheSage
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Re: Predict Your Slate! (2019-2020 Edition)

Post by NicodemustheSage »

Looks like a $1.15B slate to me, props.

--Nico.
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Buscemi2
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Re: Predict Your Slate! (2019-2020 Edition)

Post by Buscemi2 »

I'm beginning to think The Kitchen's getting pushed to January. There's been nothing out less than three months before opening and Warner Bros. is concentrating on the Springsteen movie (of which I'm thinking it plays at best like Sing Street did). Furthermore, Warner Bros. is releasing The Goldfinch's trailer tomorrow and that opens later.

In fact, I'm thinking this won't be the only Warner Bros. title to get a date change. Just Mercy was recently rated and could get moved up to Christmas (just like Hidden Figures did a few years back). Motherless Brooklyn had a negative response at CinemaCon and will have a hard time playing wide. It could end up being platformed like Inherent Vice was in mid to late-December and expand wide (as in 600 theatres wide) a few weeks later. But what becomes of the long-finished Superintelligence? I'm thinking a PG-rated McCarthy film will be a hard sell. Either it gets beefed up to become a PG-13 rated film or moves to Spring. Warner Bros. has nothing in April and the only other option for kids is Trolls World Tour. If my guess of The Kitchen proves correct, no way two McCarthy films over in a month's time.
It's like what Lenin said...I am the walrus.

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NicodemustheSage
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Re: Predict Your Slate! (2019-2020 Edition)

Post by NicodemustheSage »

Man, I just DO NOT understand what happened with "Godzilla: King of the Monsters". It's a TERRIFIC Summer popcorn movie, better than the 2014 reboot (which was very, very good), with a frequently inspired marketing campaign and a strong cast with a quite compelling narrative. WTFF. This should be a $260M movie, minimum. It probably won't make half that.

https://deadline.com/2019/06/godzilla-k ... 202624876/

--Nico.
I remain, as always.

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Buscemi2
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Re: Predict Your Slate! (2019-2020 Edition)

Post by Buscemi2 »

I think the reviews combined with the underwhelming trailers did it in. Also, five years was too long of a wait for this type of film (and when Americans think Godzilla, the 1998 one always comes up). They should have gotten up to Godzilla 3 by now.
It's like what Lenin said...I am the walrus.

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NicodemustheSage
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Re: Predict Your Slate! (2019-2020 Edition)

Post by NicodemustheSage »

It was too long between films.

--Nico.
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numbersix
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Re: Predict Your Slate! (2019-2020 Edition)

Post by numbersix »

As I said in my weekend preview, we also have to remember that the first film wasn't that liked. Its monstrous drop after its first weekend displayed poor WOM, so that was obviously going to impact the sequel's performance, especially without any marketing for next year's Kong Vs Godzilla.

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transformers2
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Re: Predict Your Slate! (2019-2020 Edition)

Post by transformers2 »

Agree with six. Godzilla 2014 was polarizing as hell, so despite a different writer/director, very minimal references to its predecessor (including just 2 returning cast members) and deciding to feature more than 12 seconds of monster action over the course of its 2 hour runtime-the sequel was bound to be a lot less successful. Even if the WOM for the previous one was significantly better, a $260 mil floor would've been an absurd overperformance IMO. 2014 'Zilla barely squeaked past $200 mil and Kong: Skull Island did a little over $160 mil. The classic giant monsters just don't have the level of mega popularity that their dinosaur cousins at Jurassic Park do at the moment.
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Geezer
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Re: Predict Your Slate! (2019-2020 Edition)

Post by Geezer »

I was wicked excited for the last Godzilla. The trailers were awesome. Then I saw it and it fucking sucked. One of the worst movies I've seen in years. I don't remember a damn thing about it honestly, other than I was completely let down. I have no desire to see any of its sequels, and clearly I'm not alone.
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undeadmonkey
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Re: Predict Your Slate! (2019-2020 Edition)

Post by undeadmonkey »

Geezer wrote:I was wicked excited for the last Godzilla. The trailers were awesome. Then I saw it and it fucking sucked. One of the worst movies I've seen in years. I don't remember a damn thing about it honestly, other than I was completely let down. I have no desire to see any of its sequels, and clearly I'm not alone.
This, Completely

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W
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Re: Predict Your Slate! (2019-2020 Edition)

Post by W »

Geezer wrote:I was wicked excited for the last Godzilla. The trailers were awesome. Then I saw it and it fucking sucked. One of the worst movies I've seen in years. I don't remember a damn thing about it honestly, other than I was completely let down. I have no desire to see any of its sequels, and clearly I'm not alone.
I'll watch Godzilla stomping shit into the ground in Dolby for (basically) free, but I'm not excited about it. I would pay for Kong vs Godzilla if I had to (and probably be disappointed), though.
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Buscemi2
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Re: Predict Your Slate! (2019-2020 Edition)

Post by Buscemi2 »

Adam Wingard's looking like a bad choice for Godzilla vs. Kong, due to how his last two films turned out. Hard to believe this was the same guy who did You're Next and The Guest.

Makes me wish Jordan Vogt-Roberts had come back instead of passing of it to try to get his "monsters in Detroit" movie made.
It's like what Lenin said...I am the walrus.

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NicodemustheSage
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Re: Predict Your Slate! (2019-2020 Edition)

Post by NicodemustheSage »

Ugh. Through three releases ("The Biggest Little Farm", "Tolkien", "UglyDolls"), I'm running a good one-third lower than my initial projections (~$27M, versus a hoped-for $38M). My Summer releases had better overperform, starting with "The Dead Don't Die". But I ain't holding my breath.

--Nico.
I remain, as always.

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