2024-25 YEARLONG BOX-OFFICE DRAFT LEAGUE

[transformers2]

Beetlejuice Beetlejuice felt like a strong possibility to be in the mix since it's a long-gestating sequel to a movie that has a devoted fanbase, but I completely agree on Garfield. That one legitimately stunned me.

[Spectre]

Apparently Lin Manuel Miranda is writing the music for Mufasa, feeling better about it already

For my next pick I'll avoid the mountain of sequels and remakes and go with Wicked (hoping that adaptations do better). They need to keep advertising it as is without telling people that it's Part One because that fact is going to irritate folks for sure. But it's the 2nd highest grossing musical of all time and has bonafide star power in Ariana Grande. Feels like something that could become an event film around the holidays.

[numbersix]

IF and Garfield are very ballsy picks. On paper Garfield could be a hit, but I'm not convinced it will break through like Sonic or Mario, because Garfield isn't a video game with recent iterations. IF is a total wildcard.

A Quiet Place: Day One is a great pick. The first two were loved and performed well, so this should exceed expectations.

Wicked is also a good pick. The musical is massive, and while that doesn't always translate to a box office hit, I think in this case it will.

[BanksIsDaFuture]

I think Garfield is a decent choice, it has 3 weekends before Inside Out 2 comes out. And if that disappoints, it could rule the family audience all the way until Despicable Me 4.

I was waffling between Moana, Wicked, and Beetlejuice for my pick. Hopefully I made the safe, high floor choice.

[Buscemi2]

I think Wicked could bomb like Cats did. It's been over twenty years since the show debuted on Broadway. Do the people who loved the show want to see a film version from the hack behind two Justin Bieber documentaries and Jem and the Holograms (and In the Heights, the last film musical mega-flop) and starring Ariana Grande? If the film is a disaster in the test screening phase, it might be best to recut it into one film but then again, Universal thought we needed two more Halloween movies after the 2018 entry even though they didn't even have enough story for one movie.

IF looks creepy and might have been a mistake for John Krasinski to make after the first two Quiet Place movies. He would have been better off trying to revive Lip Sync Battle.

Though prequels have gotten a bit of acceptance in recent years, A Quiet Place: Day One might suffer from the fatigue of there being a new dystopian film opening seemingly every week now. With the exception of Civil War, which wasn't the blockbuster A24 hoped it would be, it feels like the only audience for 90% of these are doomers and anti-technology keyboard warriors. Part II had the advantages of being of the first big movies to open as capacity restrictions were being relaxed and had positive word-of-mouth from its pre-lockdown premiere. Day One doesn't look much different from a lot of other recent movies. I think it struggles to gross $100 million.

Lastly, it feels like Lin-Manuel Miranda's popularity peaked a few years ago. He had something like five different things out in one calendar year and after Tick, Tick...Boom, nothing.

[Screen203]

I will choose Minecraft, which may end up being a disaster, but the game is iconic enough in my age demographic that I think it should gross Five Nights At Freddy's numbers at least.

[numbersix]

Buscemi, our non-participating source of optimism.

[numbersix]

I will choose Minecraft, which may end up being a disaster, but the game is iconic enough in my age demographic that I think it should gross Five Nights At Freddy's numbers at least.

Really wanted this one. This make Super Mario numbers... with ease. Biggest game in the world.

The only concern is that it might be pushed to the Summer of 2025. And now that I can't draft it, I really hope it does

[Buscemi2]

It feels like lockdown killed any studio movie I would have had interest in. For example, notice how we never see comedies anymore unless it's all things you make TikToks out of? And most movies with social themes are played too safe so not to offend anyone, defeating the entire purpose of making a movie about a situation that needs to addressed.

As for Minecraft, I thought Fortnite and Roblox overtook it in popularity. It didn't decline like Overwatch did but it doesn't feel like it gets talked about much now.

[Screen203]

I'm not sure that Minecraft will do Mario numbers, if only because, while Mario isn't exactly known for a deep story, it at the very least has characters and a basic plotline, which I don't believe Minecraft does. Being pushed to the summer is also a concern, but I think if everything goes right it could be the biggest film of the first four months of 2025.

As for Garfield and IF, I initially thought the former was going to be the breakout hit of May, but buzz seemed to die down a bit after the well-received first teaser. It almost reminds me of Detective Pikachu in terms of declining buzz.

IF could go either way, but I think that Paramount is making the right decisions in marketing it: they seem to be focusing on The Office reunion between John and Steve and the ensemble cast to get adults interested, and focusing on the animated characters and the "what if imaginary friends were real" premise, which feels along the lines of Monsters Inc. or Toy Story, for children. That being said, I think that WOM will affect how well it ends up doing.

[Buscemi2]

To me, the IF trailers just seem to be selling it as another Ryan Reynolds movie.

As for Garfield, there haven't been any family-friendly movies since Kung Fu Panda 4 or nor any Sony releases since Frozen Kingdom. It's kind of hard to put your trailers for an animated movie before Abigail or The First Omen. As Sony usually starts their ad campaigns late, I'd expect them to ramp up promotion this week. Meanwhile, there's been a lot of international promotion.

[Walleye413]

Minecraft - if it's any good - will be huge. It is still the biggest game in the world. If you get three weeks of it it'll be massive.

This year feels like a big crapshoot all around. I'm excited for Wicked and IF - but is that just my bias? Will audiences actually agree with me? (note - they usually don't )

[Spectre]

Minecraft is going to be absolutely huge (although I have no idea why they made it live action), the only thing that made me pass it is the possibility that it gets pushed into the summer.

Wicked is on a different level than Cats. It's much more popular, based on a beloved IP, and isn't even close to as strange of a story. Plus Cats had some of the weirdest/worst CGI I've ever seen and Wicked won't even use CGI. I think it performs closer to Wonka than it does Cats.

[Buscemi2]

Wicked is unlicensed Wizard of Oz fan fiction (and did anyone ever read the book the musical was based on?). That alone puts it into the possibility of it ending up like Cats did. And it's from the same production team that brought Dear Evan Hansen to the screen.

As for Minecraft being live-action, I think it has to do with Warner Bros. gradually getting out of in-house animation (The Cat in the Hat is being outsourced). To be fair, keeping it animated would feel like watching the most expensive Let's Play video ever uploaded.

[BanksIsDaFuture]

Someone has to believe in the MCU still around these parts!



Gimme that Walmart version of Captain America and some Red Hulk to make it interesting - I'll take Captain America: Brave New World.