Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 1/27

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Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 1/27

Post by transformers2 »

Who says Christmas can't extend into the end of January?

Not only did Avatar: The Way of Water rack up its seventh straight #1 spot at the box office and set a new record for highest seventh weekend of all time with $20.1 mil (perhaps most impressively, it did that despite enduring its highest drop to date at 38.7%), but Puss in Boots: The Last Wish rode its absurdly strong WOM back to the #2 spot with an $11.8 mil (-18.4%) haul in its sixth weekend.

While the 2022 holiday holdovers stole the show, the rest of the top 5 was also full of bright spots. M3GAN is now within striking distance of $75 mil after banking another $9.7 mil in its third weekend of release, A Man Called Otto continued to deify the narrative the older adults have stopped going to the theaters with a strong 31% hold ($8.8 mil) in its second weekend of pure wide release (it's running total is just over $35 mil) and sole new wide release Missing-the standalone sequel to Searching-overperformed a bit with a $9.1 mil debut.

One area where 2023 is not off to a better-than-expected start is on the limited front. This weekend was particularly bleak for arthouses as A24 and Sony Classics respectively sent their inventory that they didn't believe it in out to die (Jesse Eisenberg's tepidly-received directorial debut When You Finishing Saving The World and failed Oscar hopeful The Son). Both of these titles failed to generate even $400 per run from the hundreds of theaters they played in and any of trace of their big screen presence will likely be completely gone by the end of next week. Fortunately, the indie circuit could be getting a jolt as early as this week once Close and One Fine Morning enter the fray.

Wide Releases:
In October 2020, Brandon Cronenberg's Possessor got a very limited theatrical release due to its lack of a rating and that pesky coronavirus shuttering many theaters around North America. 28 months later, his next movie Infinity Pool (Neon) was able to secure a wide release. What a massive shift in fortune for the Canadian director that followed his father into the family business of making sadistic, thought-provoking genre movies.

Now, don't let the “wide release” status bait you into thinking that Infinity Pool is some kind of pivot into more mainstream movies for Cronenberg. The film-which had to be cut down from an NC-17-shocked Sundance crowds at its world premiere over the weekend with how far it went with its sex, violence and other vulgar content and it's pretty much a guarantee that people will react similarly at multiplexes around the US and Canada this weekend.

While the theater count is still unknown at this point, “Infinity Pool” is something that will struggle to gain traction with the masses regardless of how wide its released. Cronenberg doesn't only push the envelope with the content of his films, but his pacing tends to be very deliberate and given the depth of titles in the holdover market that are riding good WOM's to leggy runs right now, an inaccessible sci-fi horror movie backed by an indie studio could struggle to carve out its slice of the BO pie. A high-single digit finish right around what co-lead Mia Goth's last vehicle “Pearl” did last fall feels like the absolute ceiling for a movie like this.
Price: $4 ULT/$2 BO
Predictions: $1-3 mil OW/0-1 PTA/0 Top 5/ low to mid 6 IMDB/$3-9 mil total BO
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: No


Speaking of directors that had their last films release impacted by COVID, Deon Taylor is back with what seems poised to be his widest release since 2019's Black and Blue with Fear (Hidden Empire)-a psychological/supernatural horror flick that he self-funded and is now self-distributing under his new label Hidden Empire. Based on the vague trailer at least, “Fear” appears to be a story about a group of people (Joseph Sikora, Andrew Bachelor, Ruby Modine, Annie Ilonzeh, Iddo Golberg, Terrance Jenkins, T.I.) vacationing in a secluded house in the Northern California mountains that have their idyllic trip interrupted by an entity that preys on each of their biggest fears.

Will Taylor be able turn Fear into his own version of recent DIY success story Terrifier 2? Probably not. Outside of it not sharing Terrifier's privileged status as a sequel to a film with a very passionate fanbase, “Fear” looks more like a VOD project that somehow slithered its way onto the big screen opposed to a gory labor of demented love that hearkened back to the grindhouse era of horror cinema and Taylor isn't a director whose known for his efforts in the horror community. On top of that, it's been delayed about 35 times over the past 8 months or so-which is an especially bleak sign for a movie that's so small. Any chance it has of surprising will come down to the reach of its marketing, which could be greater than expected as the film has TV spots in circulation and somewhat of a presence in the social media space. I'm going to lean towards it being a non-factor at the box office, but an overperformance wouldn't catch me off guard.
Price: $4 ULT/$3 BO
Predictions: $700k-3 mil OW/0-1 PTA/0 Top 5/ mid to high 4 IMDB/$3-7 mil total BO
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: Not at all.


Limited Releases:
Fresh off a Best International Feature nomination at the Oscars, the acclaimed Belgian coming-of-age drama Close (A24) begins its theatrical rollout this weekend. The sophomore feature from Lukas Dhont debuted in competition at Cannes last May and ended up being one of the winners of the Grand Prix prize (which I think is their equivalent of a runner-up to the Palm d'or?) after it earned widespread praise following its premiere near the end of the festival. Before it even officially became a prize winner, A24 swooped in to grab the North American rights and now the studio can celebrate its first ever Oscar nomination for a non-English language film produced outside of the US as a result.

About the only reason for pause surrounding Close is that A24 is basically not even acknowledging its existence. I had to physically go on their website to confirm it was still even coming out this week since their social media accounts haven't mentioned it once since the trailer came out back in October. Now to be fair to them, “Close” seems poised to have a slow rollout and they've put the bulk of their promotional energy into their more prolific Oscar players such as Everything Everywhere All at Once and The Whale. However, if this does turn into a quick dump job, they'll deserve a ton of shit for devaluing the release of one of the most prolific non-English language titles of this awards season.
Price: $3 ULT/$1 BO
Predictions: $30-75k OW/3-15 PTA/0 Top 5/mid to high 7 IMDB/$100k-$3 mil total BO
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: More than likely, yes.


If you would prefer a French-language film that debuted at Cannes last year that has a clear release plan, One Fine Morning (Sony Classics) may be your go-to PTA hopeful this week. The Lea Seydoux-led romantic drama is headed into a handful of NYC/LA theaters this weekend and will expand in the coming weeks a la last month's Living (it's releasing in Boston proper on February 10). While it lacks the coveted Oscar nomination, the overall critical sentiment is comparable to Close-which should be enough for it to be at least a decent draw in arthouses this weekend and put up respectable numbers upon expansion.
Price: $3 ULT/$1 BO
Predictions: $45-$70k OW/5-11 PTA/0Top 5/mid to high 7 IMDB/$800k-$2 mil total BO
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: It has a higher floor than “Close” given the clarity surrounding its release strategy and even if it didn't, it would be worth a look at only $3 in ULT.


As recently as 5 years ago, a romantic comedy featuring an ensemble of Emma Roberts, Luke Bracey, Susan Sarandon, Diane Keaton, Richard Gere and William H. Macy could've been a modest hit. Now, it's an independent production that got picked up by Vertical for a semi-wide theatrical release on the final weekend of January. Just a tough scene for actors that have enjoyed their fair share of success in Hollywood over the years. Anyways, this movie is called Maybe I Do (Vertical) and unless one of you is a secret superfan of the 2020 Netflix romcom Holidate that also saw Roberts and Bracey play love interests, nobody here is going to be interested in using a spot on either of their slates on something that has so little potential.
Price: $3 ULT/$2 BO
Predictions: $75-500k OW/0 PTA or top 5/low to mid 5 IMDB/$300k-1.5 mil total BO
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: Nope


The star of this installment of IFC's day-and-day title of the week is Life Upside Down (formerly Worlds Apart) (IFC)-a dramedy starring Bob Odenkirk, Radha Mitchell, Danny Houston, Rosie Fellner, Terence Bernie Hines and Jeanie Lim about three couples that see their relationships tested during the COVID lockdown of 2020. Could it be an alright movie? Sure! Odenkirk is typically great in everything he does and Mitchell and Houston are very serviceable character actors that don't get as much as work as they deserve. Will it have any value in our game whatsoever? Not at all. Stay tuned for the next edition of this hit series at the end of February!!!!
Price: $2 ULT/$1 BO
Predictions: $5-10k OW/0 PTA or Top 5/high 5 to low 6 IMDb/$10-$25k total BO
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: No. No. No.



Weekend Predictions:
1.Avatar: The Way of Water $14 mil
2.Puss in Boots: The Last Wish $9.5 mil
3.A Man Called Otto $6.5 mil
4.M3GAN $6 mil
5.Missing $5 mil

-Infinity Pool $2 mil
-Fear $1 mil

PTA: Close, One Fine Morning, Avatar: The Way of Water, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, Missing

I'll be back next week to discuss M. Night Shyamalan's long-awaited return to R-rated movies and a touching tribute to 4 actors and 1 NFL quarterback who simply refuse to retire.
BRING BRENDAN FRASER BACK TO THE BIG SCREEN DAMN IT
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 1/27

Post by Chienfantome »

transformers2 wrote:
January 25th, 2023, 7:14 pm
the Grand Prix prize (which I think is their equivalent of a runner-up to the Palm d'or?)
That is exactly what it is, yes. Like a silver palm to the Palme d'or. I would have given the Palme d'or to Close over Triangle of Sadness, personaly. A beautiful, heartbreaking film.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 1/27

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Fear is not even playing anywhere near me and these kinds of movies always get at least two theatres in my area. I'm sure it's terrible so no big loss.

Meanwhile, it amazes me how long the industry has tried to make Emma Roberts a thing. Careers come and go and a lot of deserving actors never get that shot but by some miracle, someone is still hoping to make Julia Roberts' niece the next big star. It's been twenty years. Let it go.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 1/27

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According to Box Office Pro, the estimated theaters counts for Infinity Pool and Fear are 2,200 and 1,000 respectively.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 1/27

Post by Buscemi2 »

Surprisingly, Fear is not the worst reviewed movie this week. That honor goes to Life Upside Down, which will probably be the last attempt for a while to make pandemic movies happen. Almost none of them got a positive response.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 1/27

Post by Buscemi2 »

Unsurprisingly, Infinity Pool got a bad CInemascore of a C-. What is surprising is that Neon had a Cinemascore poll done one of their titles.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 1/27

Post by transformers2 »

Weekend Estimates:
Avatar: The Way of Water $15.7 mil
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish $10.6 mil
A Man Called Otto $6.8 mil
M3GAN $6.4 mil
Pathaan $5.9 mil
Missing $5.7 mil
Plane $3.8 mil
Infinity Pool $2.7 mil
Left Behind: Rise of the Antichrist $2.4 mil
The Wandering Earth 2 $1.4 mil
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 1/27

Post by transformers2 »

Weekend Actuals:
1.Avatar: The Way of Water $16 mil
2.Puss in Boots: The Last Wish $10.5 mil
3.Pathaan $6.9 mil
4.A Man Called Otto $6.7 mil
5.M3GAN $6.3 mil
6.Missing $5.7 mil
7.Plane $3.8 mil
8.Left Behind: Rise of the Antichrist $2.6 mil
9.Infinity Pool $2.5 mil
10.The Wandering Earth II $1.4 mil

-Fear $1.2 mil
-Maybe I Do $562k
-Close $68k
-One Fine Morning $13k
-Life Upside Down $2k

PTA:
1.Close $17,035 (4 theaters)
2.Avatar: The Way of Water $4,435
3.One Fine Morning $4,349 (3 theaters)
4.Puss in Boots: The Last Wish $3,041
5.Missing $1,875

-Infinity Pool $1,370
-Fear $1,260
-Maybe I Do $1,208 (465 theaters)
-Life Upside Down $89 (27 theaters)
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 1/27

Post by Buscemi2 »

The Billie Eilish concert film made $1.3 million in its single night run and finished in eleventh. Had it been extended to the weekend, it could have gotten to at least $3 million, beating all of the openers not named Pathaan.
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