SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 10/07

[numbersix]

Well folks, it’s been a pretty busy week for me, so I’m going to have to dash through this week’s films. So if the pithy comments and puns are less frequent, don’t worry, it’s not you, it’s me.


Lyle Lyle Crocodile (Sony)
I have to come clean – I know absolutely nothing about this film, and I’m going off the title alone. Presumably it’s about a hillbilly swamp-dweller. The creature Florida-Man carries into drug stores without knowing how or why. I don’t know. All I know is that it’s a kids film, the first since the summer, so it’s going to win this weekend with ease, and hold well across the month. Given its relatively low price tag, this is well worth picking up, particularly in Ultimate as it remains in the Top 5 over October.


Amsterdam (Disney)
This ensemble comedic thriller screams Oscars almost as much as director David O Russell screams at his cast. Before the film passed the eyes of critics, this could have been a $100m sleeper, thanks toa cast of Christian Bale, Margot Robbie, John David Washington, De Niro, Chris Rock, and just about everyone else. And then it didn’t come out in any fest, with claims that it wasn’t ready or the director wanted an IMAX premiere or some nonsense. In reality, the studio knew it’s no good and the reviews proved this to be true, with a rotten RT score. The cast may attract some audience, but don’t expect much from this – a $10m opening and $30m cume at best, with a handful of T5 and 1-2 PTA points in Ultimate, makes this, quite like the city itself, over-priced.


On the limited side, there are 4 films coming out. 2 of which, Pretty Problems (IFC) and Dark Glasses (IFC too). As we know about IFC, their limited budget tends to ensure only major festival players or established auteur films tend to break out. So skip.

However, Tár (Focus) is out this weekend. A drama about a fictional female composer, this doesn’t scream like a sell-out crowd. Writer/director Todd Field has been away for so long that there are legal adults older than his last film, Little Children. However, the reviews have been stellar out of the big festivals, and Cate Blanchett’s performance will probably earn her yet another Oscar nomination. Coming out in only a handful of theatres this weekend, this could be a PTA goldmine. Nab it.

Triangle of Sadness (NEON) was the surprise win of Cannes’s Palm D’Or this year. Despite many thinking it’s not Ruben Ostlund’s finest 2.5 hours (his previous film The Square also won the Palm D’Or, and Force Majeure is arguably his best film), this tri-part takedown of celeb and upper-class culture nevertheless struck a chord. The problem is that it seems to be coming out in quite a few theatres this weekend, making its PTA potential weaker. So it may not be worth the pricetag, even if it could earn a few million in the box office.


Predictions for the weekend

1. Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile - $17m
2. Amsterdam - $10m
3. Smile - $10m
4. The Woman King- $4.5m
5. Don’t Worry Darling- $3.2m

PTA: Tár, Lyle, Triangle, Amsterdam, Smile

Next week sees the new trilogy end with, appropriately, Halloween Ends, as well as Till and Decision to Leave coming out as limited releases. Tranny has the tea.

[Buscemi2]

Amsterdam was held back as Russell wanted it to be shown mainly on premium-priced screens. I don't understand why as his films have never screamed "IMAX experience".

Also opening this week is Terrifier 2, where I've been kind of harassed on Facebook for not knowing there were was interest in such a film (did anyone really know there was a first Terrifier?).

[transformers2]

I think Triangle of Sadness is only coming out in NYC, LA and San Francisco this weekend, so it should only be in a dozen or so theaters. Neon does have a tendency to do quick expansions after an initial limited opening (it's opening here next week along with Tar).

Based on the weekday business and its good exit polling (which I can back up with my personal experience seeing it. It was the most engaged horror audience I've seen in ages.), Smile seems to have a good shot of having a sub-50% drop this weekend. Wouldn't be at all surprising to see it edge out Amsterdam for the #2 spot.

As for Terrifier 2 Boosh, only a small number of theaters are showing it through the weekend. The majority of them are just doing a single screening tonight.

[Buscemi2]

Terrifier 2 is getting more than that one night, as I know of at least two theatres in my area getting it on Friday in an evenings only run, suggesting that it could end being 500-600 theatres nationwide for the week. And for reasons I cannot fathom, there's buzz. But for some reason, there's a rabid group of people that love anything with killer clowns or long movies with excessive violence (I read it's basically 150 minutes of graphic kills).

As for Smile, that's dropping at least 50%. The B- Cinemascore was not all that impressive, even though that's pretty much the horror genre's version of an A- score.

And I saw Triangle of Sadness is coming to my market on the 28th. I don't think it expands as well as Tár does, even with the similar length and target audience.

[transformers2]

Upon further research, I definitely lowballed the amount of theaters that Terrifier 2 is playing in beyond tonight. It seems like most Showcase, Regal and non-AMC chains will keep showing it through the weekend, but at least in these parts, it's just 1 showing each night. The original Terrifer has a vocal cult following, but it would be a surprise if the sequel made much more than $1-1.5 mil for the weekend.

[Buscemi2]

Meanwhile, I don't think anyone expected the Paddington ripoff to get better reviews than the movie that was designed to get David O. Russell his Oscar.

[Buscemi2]

Lyle, Lyle Crocodile is getting 4,350 theatres this weekend, so it looks like Sony is expecting to have the top movie this weekend, even if the marketing hasn't been the best.

Amsterdam will be opening in 3,005 theatres, will close to 1,100 of those having it on premium format screens.

[Buscemi2]

Thursday preview numbers:

Lyle Lyle Crocodile $575,000
Amsterdam $550,000
Terrifier 2 $404,000

Not sure if that's good for Lyle (remember that Thursday is a school night and that a lot of those tickets were probably bought by Greatest Showman or Shawn Mendes fans rather than families) or bad for Amsterdam. Meanwhile, Terrifier 2 meets the yearly quota of two hour-plus movies about killer clowns. Looks like It: Chapter 3 - Pennywise's Not Dead is going to happen at some point.

[Buscemi2]

Cinemascore:

Amsterdam: B (ties Three Kings for Russell's lowest score, who usually gets at least a B+)

Lyle, Lyle Crocodile's score will come in later, as per usual with Sony titles that get polled.

[transformers2]

Weekend Estimates:
Smile $17.6 mil (-22%-which is the 2nd best ever hold for an R-rated horror movie behind Get Out and the best 2nd weekend hold for a wide release on a non-major holiday weekend weekend during the pandemic)
Lyle, Lyle Crocodile $11.5 mil
Amsterdam $6.5 mil
The Woman King $5.3 mil
Don't Worry Darling $3.5 mil
Avatar Re-release $2.6 mil
Barbarian/Bros $2.2 mil
Ponniyan Selvan $894k
Terrifier 2 $825k

On the limited front, Tar posted a $40k PTA while Triangle of Sadness did $21k

[Buscemi2]

Comes to show you how depressed the horror theatrical market is if both Smile and Barbarian are holding well even though word-of-mouth wasn't that great. Maybe that's why we're getting Saw 10.

[Buscemi2]

Weekend Numbers:

1. Smile $18.5 million
2. Lyle, Lyle Crocodile $11.4 million (A- Cinemascore)
3. Amsterdam $6.4 million (B Cinemascore)
4. The Woman King $5.2 million
5. Don't Worry Darling $3.5 million
Avatar $2.7 million
Barbarian $2.2 million
Bros $2.2 million (Barbarian finishes ahead by less than $34,000)
Top Gun: Maverick $0.8 million (20 weeks in the Top Ten)
Terrifier 2 $0.8 million ($1.2 million four-day)

PTA
5 points: Tár
4 points: Triangle of Sadness
3 points: Smile
2 points: Lyle, Lyle Crocodile
1 point: Amsterdam

On a related note, I saw that Amsterdam is set to lose $100 million for Disney and Regency. I think some heads are going to roll over this one, in addition to some subgenres/trends and a career or two.