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Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 6/8

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Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 6/8

Postby Walleye413 » June 7th, 2018, 2:26 am

3 years ago who would of guessed that Star Wars fatigue would happen before Marvel fatigue? But what do you know. Here in Bizaaro world an R-rated Deadpool might end up making double the take of one of the most loved characters in cinematic history. And even with all that: Solo won it’s second week at the Box Office, besting Titanic-lite Adrift and a few other holdovers. Upgrade did better than Action Point, something absolutely nobody saw coming. And on the PTA front, American Animals did what everyone saw coming – and saved a few slates in our little homegrown game. What does that all mean for this weekend? Not much as it’s out with the old and in with the new.

We’ve got Oceans 8 - the only big spender at the cinemas this weekend. Sandra Bullock and a stellar cast of ladies try to be better than the Ghostbusters sequel. (No not Ghostbusters 2, that was just plain horrible.) There’s a whole lot of angst around this movie in light of gender-flipped movies not doing so well lately. I actually don’t think all of that matter nearly as much as if the movies good, and if it has an audience. As Book Club has shown us (Hello, 60 million by this weekend?) Not everyone wants to just see stuff blow up. The new Oceans gang will win the weekend with 40 million, on it’s way to 120 million total. It should nab 12 Top 5 points, plus a few PTA points as well. If you’re a believer, and you should be, you should have this on your slates.

Now most of us are trying to fit Hereditary on our slates as well. It’s Horror, and when done well those have been slate saviors for the last couple of years. Who hasn’t benefitted from an underpriced Quiet Place, Get Out, It, Split, Show Dogs, etc. etc. etc. But Hereditary is not that movie. It’s got a ton of buzz, and it’ll do well, worth the $7 or $8 in most leagues. But it’s not doing blockbuster business. Too niche, wrong studio backing, etc. It’ll get 4th for the weekend, and have a good PTA count, but unless you’re reading the tea leaves way differently, don’t count on this to anchor your slate.

Equally tempting, but even less likely to save the day, is Hotel Artemis. What crazy-tarantino type genius came up with the premise and casting for this film? Jodie Foster, Sterling Brown, Sofia Boutella, Jenny Slate, Zacary Quinto, Dave Bautista? And there’s more? Gonzo. Actually, I think he might be in it too. Other than this being set in some weird world where L.A. is a super dangerous place to live, I don’t know much about this movie, and I likely won’t get to see it. It might get 6-7 million for an opener, I’m predicting 5th place for the weekend, and a 15ish million total. If you’re feeling risky go with Hereditary. Or try the Sushi in Omaha.

On the Indie front we’ve got a sweet, and impactful little documentary coming out about Mr. Rogers with Won’t You Be My Neighbor. I defy anyone to speak negatively about this man or this movie. Dude, it’s Mr. Rogers, how can anyone dislike him. The movie has been receiving rave reviews (from viewers at least) since Sundance and that should continue this weekend. It’s actually a message of kindness and tolerance that just about everyone in America could stand to see, but as it opens in only a couple dozen theatres they may have to wait their turn. That’s another good lesson Fred taught us as well. With that high theatre count it’s not as surefire as American Animals last week, but if you want to feel good about yourself and the world, see this movie and add it to your slate. As Mr. Rogers said: it’s not just about winning. Or that might have been Lebron James.

Finally we’ve got Westwood: Punk, Icon, Activist. Another documentary, this time about a woman I know nothing about. I’m sure she’s amazing, they don’t’ make documentaries about just anybody. But for game purposes it’s a toss up. It’ll probably do better than American Animals second week. But I’m still betting it loses to Mr. Rogers, Oceans 8, and maybe even Hereditary. I figure you can do better. But then again, on this subject, I literally know nothing.

And that’s all folks! Join us next week as the biggest movie of the Summer comes out: Incredibles 2. Bigger than the Avengers? Nah, but that came out in the Spring.

[u]Top 5
Oceans 8
Deadpool 2
Solo
Hereditary
Hotel Artemis

PTA
Won’t You Be My Neighbor
Oceans 8
Hereditary
Westwood
American Animals
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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 6/8

Postby Buscemi2 » June 7th, 2018, 2:34 am

It seems like there's been no buzz for Hereditary. A Quiet Place stole nearly all its thunder and A24 has been very cautious about its distribution (there's still no theatre count and promotion has been limited). In addition, the two-hour-plus runtime will kill its potential with horror fans.

And I wouldn't be surprised if Hotel Artemis opened lower than Action Point. Almost no marketing, a short run time when its target audience likes long movies, and weak reviews when it needs glowing reviews to succeed, being an independent film against bigger studio fare. In addition, we've been seeing too much of this kind of movie lately (recently, I watched a dreadful film called Terminal which tried a lot of the same things this film is doing and failed miserably). Global Road should have opened this on Labor Day weekend but of course, how many sci-fi movies are already in August that should have been day-and-date (A.X.L., Kin, the recently pulled Replicas)?

Won't You Be My Neighbor? is set to expand wide on June 22nd but I don't see it being the breakout success so many do. At best, it will play like RBG. But it's not going to bring the documentary back into the mainstream. American society is more likely to worship violence over tolerance (why else did American Sniper outgross Selma?).
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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 6/8

Postby Shrykespeare » June 7th, 2018, 9:00 am

Walleye413 wrote: Gonzo. Actually, I think he might be in it too.


You're talking about the Muppet, right? Because him being in this movie would just be ... awesome.
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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 6/8

Postby Walleye413 » June 7th, 2018, 10:58 am

Shrykespeare wrote:
Walleye413 wrote: Gonzo. Actually, I think he might be in it too.


You're talking about the Muppet, right? Because him being in this movie would just be ... awesome.


Exactly :D
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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 6/8

Postby Shrykespeare » June 7th, 2018, 9:16 pm

Theater counts:

Ocean's 8 - 4,145
Hereditary - 2,964
Hotel Artemis - 2,407
Won't You Be My Neighbor? - 29



Next week:

The Incredibles 2 - 4,200
Tag - 3,300+
Superfly - 2,200





Celebrity Birthdays:

Robert Lord Taylor turned 40 on 6/4
Nick Kroll turned 40 on 6/5
Prince would have turned 60 on 6/7
Bill Hader turned 40 on 6/7
Michael Cera turned 30 on 6/7
Keenen Ivory Wayans turns 60 on 6/8
DJ Qualls turns 40 on 6/10
Shane West turns 40 on 6/10
Happy 40th birthday Katie Holmes! (12/18/18)
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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 6/8

Postby numbersix » June 8th, 2018, 3:01 am

Hereditary will of course not be the next Quiet Place. But the buzz is very strong, and it could translate to a modest hit. I'm thinking 12m OW and 30m cume. As Boosch said, that long run time may hurt it.

Who is Mr Rogers?

I'm not that high on Oceans 8. Didn't work for Ghostbuster, so why should it work for a franchise that's less loved, that people got tired of? Think it'll just about make it to 100m.

Predictions
1. Oceans 8 - 38m
2. Solo - $14m
3. Deadpool 2 - $13m
4. Hereditary - $12m
5. Avengers Infinite Movies - $6m

PTA: Oceans 8, Neighbour, American Animals, Hereditary, Westwood
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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 6/8

Postby BanksIsDaFuture » June 8th, 2018, 4:11 am

numbersix wrote:
Who is Mr Rogers?


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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 6/8

Postby Buscemi2 » June 8th, 2018, 4:13 am

He was a soundboard legend, Six.

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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 6/8

Postby W » June 8th, 2018, 9:35 am

numbersix wrote:
Who is Mr Rogers?


All work and no play makes Jack a dull boy.
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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 6/8

Postby Shrykespeare » June 8th, 2018, 9:58 am

He had a kid's show on public television for many, many years in the 70s and 80s. It was as family-friendly, clean and wholesome as you could get. Fred Rogers, an ordained minister, was a staunch advocate for educational TV for kids, and he could always be identified by the trademark sweaters he wore every single episode. His show often ran right after Sesame Street, but Mr. Rogers Neighborhood focused more on family values and friendships and less on learning words and grammar. There was quite a lot of standard kiddie fare (puppets and singalongs), and parents and kids alike adored him. I believe several of his sweaters are in the Smithsonian.

I am proud to admit that I watched his show quite a lot as a child. The man was an institution, and he changed the face of public television for all time.
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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 6/8

Postby Chienfantome » June 8th, 2018, 3:58 pm

I asked myself the same question as Six. His fame didn't cross the Atlantic.
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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 6/8

Postby Shrykespeare » June 8th, 2018, 4:19 pm

According to BOM, Ocean's 8 pulled in $4M from Thursday Previews.

Their early projections:

Ocean's 8 (4,145 theaters) - $45.0 M
Solo: A Star Wars Story (4,335 theaters) - $14.5 M
Deadpool 2 (3,823 theaters) - $13.0 M
Hereditary (2,964 theaters) - $12.0 M
Adrift (3,015 theaters) - $7.3 M
Avengers: Infinity War (2,882 theaters) - $6.0 M
Hotel Artemis (2,340 theaters) - $5.0 M
Book Club (2,802 theaters) - $4.6 M
Upgrade (1,458 theaters) - $2.5 M
Life of the Party (1,848 theaters) - $1.9 M



Also, I just noticed that Black Panther is down to only about 200 theaters. It's just over $699M. Doesn't look like it'll make it to $700M.
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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 6/8

Postby Buscemi2 » June 8th, 2018, 4:35 pm

Unless Disney launches it one more time around Independence Day weekend.

Too early estimates (via Variety):

Ocean's 8 $17 million Friday/$44 million weekend
Hereditary $14 million weekend (Cinemascore could change the outlook though)
Hotel Artemis $3 million weekend
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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 6/8

Postby Buscemi2 » June 9th, 2018, 12:13 am

Hereditary got a D+ Cinemascore. I guess horror fans are back to hating anything that's original and not from a studio.

Hotel Artemis also got a dreadful score of C- but that was somewhat expected. Ocean's 8 was the week's best with a B+.
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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners: The Films of 6/8

Postby transformers2 » June 9th, 2018, 7:52 am

A film that was advertised as a supernatural horror film that's actually more of a slow-burning psychological drama with supernatural elements scored poorly in exit polling? Color me shocked!!!
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