Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: April 6th-8th

[Buscemi2]

“Your job is to cook. Don’t you realize I’ve had diarrhea since Easters?” – Nacho Libre (2006)

Easter is now over and I hope you didn’t get yourself sick on ham or candy. This week, four wide releases and four limited releases will be covered, assuming that I’m still here and haven’t pissed off everyone.

Last Week

Steven Spielberg’s newest, Ready Player One (Warner Bros.), won the hearts of those in rose-colored glasses, taking in $41.8 million for the weekend ($53.7 million four-day). The Cinemascore was an A- so continued success should ensue. Second was Tyler Perry’s latest, Acrimony, stalking to the tune of $17.2 million. The Cinemascore was also an A- but Perry films tend to be frontloaded. Black Panther keeps on with a third place finish in its seventh week, making $11.5 million ($650.9 million total, $700 million is a strong possibility at this point). Fourth was I Can Only Imagine with $10.4 million. It has now made $55.3 million and you just know Lionsgate’s going to announce a sequel soon. And dropping from first to fifth is Pacific Rim: Uprising, dropping 67% from the previous weekend to $9.4 million. It has made $45.9 million in two weeks and you can bet this franchise has now bit the dust.

Speaking of dying franchises, we can finally eulogize the God’s Not Dead franchise. This series which demonized everything that wasn’t hardcore Evangelical and became a political statement for its followers when it began four years ago saw its most recent entry bomb to the tune of a $2.7 million weekend (by comparison, the original made more than double that opening weekend in less than half the theatres). And it makes you wonder why Pure Flix still exists when none of their films have made money since that film.

On the limited release scene, Isle of Dogs had a strong expansion, making $17,839 per in 165 theatres. The film hits 400 theatres this weekend before expanding wide on April 13th. Ready Player One and Acrimony took place and show while fourth went to Finding Your Feet, making a disappointing $4,295 per theatre (reviews must have held potential audiences back). Fifth was I Can Only Imagine.

This Week

For the “Blockers”

The first wide release to be covered is the 3,300 theatre opening Blockers (Universal), because they couldn’t call it Cock Blockers. Formerly titled The Pact, this comedy is about three suburban parents (Leslie Mann, John Cena, Ike Barinholtz) who find out through their daughter’s texts that they plan to lose their virginity on prom night (how original). So now, the three must race against time (and beer enemas) to stop their plans.

This seems to be Universal’s attempt at a new American Pie or Neighbors but here, it looks like they are trying too hard. It also doesn’t help that it looks creepy and bound to alienate both teenagers and adults. Also, did we really need to see John Cena chug a beer from his ass? Of course, there are people who just eat up stupid, raunchy humor (it’s why Netflix has so many popular sitcoms) and even critics seem to like it (but of course, SXSW is basically the film festival for the easily impressed, remember when Neighbors was supposed to be the next comedy classic?). I wouldn’t be surprised to see this make a decent amount of money.

Box Office Potential: this should play well for the first couple of weeks until the onslaught of pre-summer blockbusters arrive. $21 million opening, $55 million finish.


It Is Quiet, Too “Quiet”

Second on the docket is John Krasinski’s latest vanity project A Quiet Place (Paramount), opening in 3,200 theatres. Produced by Michael Bay as a favor to Krasinski appearing in his Benghazi conspiracy theory action film 13 Hours, Krasinski has cooked up what’s essentially his answer to last year’s It Comes at Night, but instead of Joel Edgerton and Carmen Ejogo, it’s him and his wife, Emily Blunt, not exactly stretching their range by playing the parents of a family in a post-apocalyptic universe where sound can lead to the summoning of a demon that kills. The family communicates by sign language to survive.

It Comes at Night was a financial disappointment despite positive reviews, thanks to an ad campaign that made the dystopian film look like a horror film. So why are box office prognosticators so high on this film? Krasinski’s other directorial effort bombed and Bay’s produced films are rarely as big as his directed ones. But it has been pre-selling well, even prompting some to compare it to Get Out (while failing to realize that Get Out was a hit not because of the politics and critical acclaim but because it was a traditional, audience-friendly horror film with a happy ending, had Jordan Peele used his original ending, it would have been dumped onto Netflix with no advance word). If any horror film is going to break out this year, it’s going to be Hereditary. Better reviews, more intriguing concept, and it it’s not an expensive home movie.

Box Office Potential: I’m going to say it opens well before poor word-of-mouth sets in (it happens with most well-reviewed horror). $28 million opening, $58 million finish.


“Chappaquiddick”…Anyone Got a Pun for This?

The third wide release this week, opening in 1,500 theatres, is Chappaquiddick (Entertainment Studios), a historical drama made for the old conservatives that still ask “Did Ted Kennedy kill a woman in 1969 and leave the scene of the crime?” while still ignoring the time Laura Bush killed someone, admitted it, and got away scot free. Jason Clarke plays Kennedy, Kate Mara plays Mary Jo Kopechne, the supposed victim of Kennedy’s, and Ed Helms, Bruce Dern, Jim Gaffigan, Taylor Nichols, and Clancy Brown also star (Olivia Thirlby was also apparently in the film but I didn’t see her on the cast list, it’s possible she was cut).

Entertainment Studios spent $10 million on the film sight unseen, which got mixed to positive reviews out of Toronto. And I have to wonder why. Historical films haven’t been that successful as of late, especially ones with political themes. Also, do people outside of said conservatives actually know about the events? This seems more like the kind of film that would get a token theatrical release before home video and Netflix. But of course, money is no object to Byron Allen and he’s likely already made that money back on post-theatrical sales.

Box Office Potential: with the target audience being saturated by the religious movie trifecta last month and not much of a spillover, I’m going to say this failed piece of Oscar bait is as dead in the water as Kopechne was on that day. $2.5 million opening, $6 million finish.


If It’s a Good Picture, It’s a “Miracle”

Last and certainly least of the wide releases is The Miracle Season (Annapurna/Mirror), the first film from Annapurna and MGM’s joint venture, Mirror, a sub-label designed to release smaller films for independent producers. This production from LD Entertainment, who is covering the opening in 1,700 theatres, and directed by family movie hack Sean McNamara is yet another inspirational sports film but thankfully does not focus on football. No, this is a film focused on volleyball and a high school team banding together after the death of their star player to win a state championship in her memory. So basically, it’s We Are Marshall with a different sport. The only major names in the cast are William Hurt (remember when he was a big star?) and Helen Hunt.

I have to wonder who decided this needed to be a wide release, as it reads more like the kind of thing that would be dumped onto Netflix or sold to basic cable. But of course, this was produced by the same person who produced Forever My Girl and that made a bit of money to increase its profile for the inevitable Lifetime rotations. So maybe Mickey Liddell, the film’s financier, knows a little more about these kinds of films than I do. But I just don’t see it having much business.

Box Office Potential: this should have gone straight to Netflix. $1.5 million opening, $3 million finish.


Arthouse Class 101

This week, four limited releases will duke it out for the PTA belt.

Lean on Pete (A24) – Andrew Haigh has become one of the new acclaimed directors in the UK with his two previous films, Weekend and 45 Years, and for his third film, he comes to the US for this coming-of-age story with a horse racing backdrop. Planned at one point as a big awards film, A24 moved the film to the spring against another modern western opening next week, The Rider. Starring in the film are Charlie Plummer, Steve Buscemi, and Chloe Sevigny.

I think pushing the film back will benefit the film. In awards season, it would have gotten lost in the shuffle, especially with the distributor hyperfocused on Lady Bird. But in the spring, it has a strong chance of breaking out. Reviews have also been very good.

My guess is that it will have 6-10 PTA points, $2-3 million in box office, and an IMDb rating in the 7’s.

Spiral (Cohen) – Not much is known about this documentary other than it focuses on the rise of anti-Semitism in France. Despite the important themes on how we shouldn’t repeat the past, it’s more than likely audiences outside of New York and Los Angeles will ignore this as it seems as if anti-Semitism has become accepted in the US in the same way blackface and making fun of the disabled have.

I’m going with 1-2 PTA points and an IMDb rating in the 5 range (I expect some alt-right types will downvote it).

Where is Kyra? (Great Point) – A leftover from last year’s Sundance festival, this Michelle Pfeiffer/Kiefer Sutherland drama finally arrives from a new distributor. The premise focuses on a woman who loses her job and is forced to live off of her dying mother. Soon, her life spirals out of control as her prospects dim further.

Reviews have been good, with much praise for Pfeiffer’s performance. So why did distributors pass on this film? It could be the downbeat themes of aging and unemployment, themes that seem to turn off buyers (on a related note, it could be a reason why Brett Haley’s films have a hard time getting deals with major distributors though his films sell). Though having these handicaps, it could be a sleeper depending how the film is distributed.

I’m going to say the film gets at best 1-2 PTA points and an IMDb rating in the mid 6’s.

You Were Never Really Here (Amazon) – A big hit at Cannes in its unfinished form last year, Lynne Ramsay’s first film in seven years is a thriller with Joaquin Phoenix as a soldier-turned-tracker who helps find missing girls for a living. On his latest job, he gets more than he bargained for and his past begins to catch up with him.

Running a quick 85 minutes, the finished film has gotten glowing reviews for Ramsay’s direction and Phoenix’s performance. However, the short run time and frenetic pace could make it a difficult sell past New York and Los Angeles. In addition, Amazon as a distributor got burned by the negative reviews and poor timing of Wonder Wheel which could lead them to give this film a quieter release. But either way, it’s a film you might want to consider for your slate.

8-12 PTA points, a gross under $5 million, and an IMDb rating between 7.5 and 8.

Notable titles opening this week that are not in the game include new IMAX documentary Pandas (Warner Bros.) and Sweet Country (Samuel Goldwyn), a well-reviewed Outback western.

Box Office: A Quiet Place, Blockers, Ready Player One, Black Panther, Acrimony
PTA: You Here Never Really Here, Lean on Pete, Isle of Dogs, A Quiet Place, Spiral

Next week, Six will take on four wide releases, Borg vs. McEnroe (Neon), Rampage (Warner Bros./New Line), Sgt. Stubby: An American Hero (Fun Academy), and Truth or Dare (Universal), and two limited releases, Beirut (Bleecker Street, opens Wednesday), and The Rider (Sony Pictures Classics). You don’t piss on hospitality. I won’t allow it.


Box Office Memories:

2008: The heavily-fictionalized from the truth blackjack drama 21 stuck around in first (remember when Jim Sturgess could open a film?), dropping only 36% to $15.3 million. Second and third were openers Nim’s Island and Leatherheads, taking in $13.2 million and $12.7 million, respectively. Dropping to fourth from second was Horton Hears a Who!, making $9.1 million in its fourth weekend ($131.1 million by this point). Fifth was the Ben Stiller-produced horror film The Ruins, opening with $8 million.

On the limited scene, one and two were films from noted Asian directors, Hou Hsiao-Hsien’s The Flight of the Red Balloon ($17,611 per in two theatres) and Wong Kar-Wai’s My Butterfly Nights ($12,357 per in six theatres). Third was the Russian film Alexandra with a $9,086 take in a single theatre in week two. Fourth was IMAX documentary Dolphins and Whales with a $6,534 average in 12 theatres in its eighth week. Rounding out the top five was another opener, Jellyfish, making $6,338 per theatre in four theatres. Opening semi-wide with many IMAX locations was Martin Scorsese’s Shine a Light, which took in $1.5 million in 276 theatres, finishing outside the top ten in both fields.

1998: Titanic finally dropped out of first! The week’s champeen? The heavily-hyped Lost in Space, which took in $20.2 million in New Line’s hopes for a new franchise (we never got Lost in Space 2 and now Netflix has a revival coming). Titanic stuck around in second in its sixteenth week with a $11.5 million gross ($530.4 million total and more to come). Third was Mercury Rising, bringing in $10.1 million. Fourth was a reissue of Grease, dropping from second with a $5.5 million weekend (57% drop). Fifth was Primary Colors, making $4.7 million in its third week ($28.9 million total). Finishing outside of the top ten was Barney’s Great Adventure, making $2.2 million.

On the PTA scene, the winner was a touring show of classic Warner Bros. films, where filmgoers could buy a single ticket or a day pass to watch classic films (each day would be based around a decade). The Warner Bros. 75th Anniversary series took in $37,136 per in three locations. Second was the IMAX documentary Everest, making $26,270 on average in 31 sites. Third was David Mamet’s The Spanish Prisoner ($17,716 per in seven locations), fourth was Neil Jordan’s The Butcher Boy ($15,067 in nine sites), and fifth was another IMAX film, Thrill Ride: The Science of Fun, averaging $9,367 in 10 locations in its 39th week.

1988: Beetlejuice proved himself to be the ghost with the most with a strong $8 million weekend ($10.5 million five-day) in exactly 1,000 theatres. Second was the previous weekend’s winner, Biloxi Blues, shedding only 15% to $6 million. Third was Michael J. Fox’s anti-drug drama Bright Lights, Big City with $5.1 million. Fourth was a reissue of The Fox and the Hound, dropping 17% to $4 million. Rounding out the top five was the Omen-like end times thriller The Seventh Sign, taking in $3.8 million.

Beetlejuice also took the PTA crown with a $8,030 average. Second was an expansion of Robert Redford’s The Milagro Beanfield War, averaging $5,936 per in 135 theatres. Third was the English heist thriller Bellman and True, opening with a $5,357 clip in four theatres. Biloxi Blues and Bright Lights, Big City were 4-5.

[Shrykespeare]

I think A Quiet Place will do a little better than you guesstimate, Boosh, but I'm with you on Blockers. I just can't see this being the next sleeper comedy hit.

PTA is a toss up. IoD probably won't win it a third week in a row, and while I'm hoping Lean on Pete can bring in a few points, I'm just not sure.

[BanksIsDaFuture]

as it seems as if anti-Semitism has become accepted in the US in the same way blackface and making fun of the disabled have.

Between this and believing that the Halliday character from Ready Player One was molesting a digital recreation of his younger self, you're killing it this week! And it's only Monday

[BanksIsDaFuture]

Also, I don't know if the good reviews will be enough to overcome those terrible trailers for Blockers.

1. A Quiet Place - $32M
2. Ready Player One - $21M
3. Blockers - $16M
4. Acrimony - $9M
5. Black Panther - $7M

[Shrykespeare]

Celebrity birthdays:

Alec Baldwin turns 60 on 4/3 (actor, game show host, top-notch presidential impersonator)
Peyton List turns 20 on 4/6 (it's an interesting name - that happens to belong to TWO actresses. huh)
Patricia Arquette turns 50 on 4/8 (I still miss Medium - great TV show)

[W]

A Quiet Place is original with a damned good set of trailers. It's getting great buzz and will be one of the few horror films to not drop like a stone after the first day. $80-100 M.

[numbersix]

Lots of interesting opinions going on here.

A lot of good buzz going on about A quiet Place. It won't be, as some say, the next Get Out. It doesn't have the social relevance to catch fire. But it should open well and hold well. Unlike other well-reviewed horror films, it's not arthouse in its delivery and conclusion (I'm assuming), so I don't see it getting an awful cinemascore and a death after week 1. Mid 20s opening and mid 70s cume.

Blockers is being overshadowed a little, and plenty of adult oriented comedy coming out this month.

As for PTA, YWNRH will win the weekend unless Amazon put it on on a few dozen screens. Lean on Pete shoudl get some, although the buzz has been muted on it.

1. A Quiet Place - $27M
2. Ready Player One - $20M
3. Blockers - $17M
4. Black Panther - $7M
5. Acrimony - $7M

PTA: You Were Never, Lean on Pete, A Quiet Place, I Love Dogs, RPO

More importantly, will next week be the first time Sex Panther drops out of the Top 5?

[Buscemi2]

And Spiral has been pushed to 6/22/2018. Forget I ever talked about the film.

[Shrykespeare]

And Spiral has been pushed to 6/22/2018. Forget I ever talked about the film.

I don't think anyone chose it anyway. You're forgiven.

[Walleye413]

It's funny, I must clearly in the Google algorithm for A Quiet Place and not Blockers because I've hardly seen any ads of Mr. Cena, and Ms. Blunt is everywhere I look. Which I'm okay with. A Quite Place clears 100 million. Blockers won't hit 50. Who thinks I Can Only Imagine gets to 80?

[Buscemi2]

I've been seeing Isle of Dogs and Infinity War everywhere and almost nothing for this week's movies.

I really don't take algorithms seriously at all. It's less about people and more about money, much like business itself (if Netflix claims to be obsessed with algorithms, why are they killing nearly all of their female-led shows and shutting out much of their audience in the process?).

[Shrykespeare]

Theater Counts:

A Quiet Place - 3,508
Blockers - 3,379
The Miracle Season - 1,707
Chappaquiddick - 1,560
Lean on Pete - 4

You Were Never Really Here - ?



Next week:

Rampage - 3,950+
Truth or Dare - 3,000

[W]

I've been seeing Isle of Dogs and Infinity War everywhere and almost nothing for this week's movies.

I really don't take algorithms seriously at all. It's less about people and more about money, much like business itself (if Netflix claims to be obsessed with algorithms, why are they killing nearly all of their female-led shows and shutting out much of their audience in the process?).

I'm thinking you're talking about stuff like Lady Dynamite, Girl Boss, and Hater's Back Off? I don't think they killed these off because they're female-centric, I'm fairly certain it's because people don't watch them. Off the top of my head, they give out more money to female-centric shows than any other network. You've got possibly their biggest show (Orange is the New Black) which is the most female-centric show out there now. You've got GLOW that drops season 2 soon, Kimmy Schmidt, The Crown, Grace and Frankie, and Fuller House (I think). Judging by my home screen they really want me to watch Cable Girls. They gave a ton of cash to the Brazilian show 3%.

When most networks' ideas of a woman's TV show is the sixteenth different Real Housewives or Kardashian clone, I think Netflix is doing pretty well. Stuff that doesn't get watched enough doesn't get renewed. Good, bad, ugly, doesn't matter. That's all.

[Buscemi2]

Lady Dynamite had great reviews (it was better received than a lot of the sitcoms that got Emmy and Golden Globe notice) and only ended due to Bamford's health. Haters Back Off should have been a YouTube Red series (it was based on a YouTube channel, after all) while Girlboss just didn't work at all (wrong lead, wrong showrunners, wrong concept for the times).

What I'm referring to is that Netflix has been going in a new direction in the past year and it's the wrong one. In addition to canceling shows with female appeal, a lot of the new projects just feel like things everyone else is doing (numerous comedy specials, Castlevania, more seasons of Bill Burr's awful show), they seriously thought Adam Devine could carry not one but two films (in addition, many of their new films have been horribly received), they still won't cancel Rob Schenider's show even though Louis C.K. had a hand in its renewal (everyone else connected to C.K. either canceled his shows or severed all ties to him), and they very nearly didn't renew Mystery Science Theater 3000 simply because you can't binge it all in a single day. And though picking up Jerry Seinfeld's show would seem like a win, all they did was cripple an already-moribund streaming service in Crackle (whom I'm sure still operates on Flash and therefore causes the service to be unusable).

Nearly all of the shows you named were shows they only have the distribution rights to (and I have a hard time believing people actually watch Fuller House except to make fun of it, also, I bet GLOW's audience is exclusively male). Netflix seems to be more interested in appealing to the vocal, young conservative male audience that Comedy Central and a million other basic cable channels already do instead of the wide audience they have been aiming towards in the past. They are narrowing their audience for no reason at all.

[Shrykespeare]

Friday Estimates

A Quiet Place, $19M
Blockers, $7.8M
Ready Player One, $6.8M
Acrimony, $2.4M
Black Panther, $2.3M
I Can Only Imagine, $2.1M
Chappaquiddick, $1.9M
Sherlock Gnomes, $1.4M
The Miracle Season, $1.4M
Pacific Rim Uprising, $1.3M



Weekend Projections:

A Quiet Place, $45M
Ready Player One, $22.4M
Blockers, $21M
Black Panther, $7.8M
I Can Only Imagine, $7.4M
Acrimony, $7.4M
Chappaquiddick, $6M
Sherlock Gnomes, $5M
Pacific Rim Uprising, $4.2M
The Miracle Season, $3.7M


PTA:
A Quiet Place, $12K
Isle of Dogs, $8K
Blockers, $6K
Ready Player One, $5K