This Fall At The Box Office

[Buscemi]

The fall season. Time for school, football and cold weather. And also time for a small drought in hit movies. The next few months will get boring but we will return to prominence by November.

Here are my predictions for the titles opening between September and November.

September 1st-3rd

The American

George Clooney returns to the indie route for this old school flavored hitman drama being directed by Anton Corbijn (Control). I haven't seen many advertisements but some moviegoers have been getting trailers before Iron Man 2 and other big titles.

Movie Best To Compare It To: The Men Who Stare At Goats (another indie film with Clooney released wide)
Box Office Projection: $10 million opening, $13.5 million five-day, $35 million final

Going The Distance

Former couple Drew Barrymore and Justin Long play a couple in a long-distance relationship in this R-rated rom-com. Looks basic for the genre.

Movie Best To Compare It To: All About Steve (another September rom-com)
Box Office Projection: $11 million opening, $33 million finish

Machete

A spinoff of the 2007 film Grindhouse with Danny Trejo leading a big cast (Robert De Niro, Jessica Alba, Michelle Rodriguez, Don Johnson, Steven Seagal, Cheech Marin, etc.) in what is planned to be a series.

Movie Best To Compare It To: Grindhouse
Box Office Projection: $9 million opening, $24 million finish

September 10th

Resident Evil: Afterlife

The fourth film in the series, Paul W.S. Anderson gives it an upgrade by shooting in the Fusion 3-D system (the camera developed for Avatar) and blowing it up to IMAX. Also returning is Mrs. Paul W.S. Anderson, Milla Jovovich.

Movie Best To Compare It To: Resident Evil: Extinction (the last movie)
Box Office Projection: $24 million opening, $55 million finish

September 17th

The Town

Ben Affleck follows up his excellent Gone Baby Gone with another Boston-set crime drama with a top-notch cast. Trailer shown before Inception has gotten good buzz.

Movies Best To Compare It To: Gone Baby Gone (Affleck's previous film) and The Departed (same studio and setting)
Box Office Projection: $18 million opening, $61 million finish

Devil

M. Night Shyamalan produces (but does not direct) this horror film about evil incarnate occupying an office elevator one fateful day.

Movie Best To Compare It To: Quarantine (the previous film from Devil's directors, the Dowdle Brothers)
Box Office Projection: $13.5 million opening, $35 million finish

Easy A

The Scarlet Letter gets a modern-day update in this star vehicle for Zombieland co-star Emma Stone.

Movies Best To Compare It To: Fired Up (the director's other film) and She's The Man (another modern-day adaptation of a classic story)
Box Office Projection: $9 million opening, $25 million finish

Alpha and Omega

Low-quality animated import (produced in India) gets a cheap 3-D job and a one-week head start on Legend Of The Guardians.

Movies Best To Compare It To: Happily N'Ever After and Battle For Terra (Lionsgate's other two forays into animated features)
Box Office Projection: $1.5 million opening, $3.5 million finish

September 24th

Legend Of The Guardians: The Owls Of Ga'Hoole

The animation studio has an Oscar winner in Happy Feet. The director has $100 million grossing movies in 300 and Watchmen. And the animation is quite impressive looking. Being the only major family film in the market (and having IMAX and 3-D to boot), this should be the most successful film of the month.

Movies Best To Compare It To: Happy Feet (Animal Logic's first film) and Watchmen (Zach Snyder's last film)
Box Office Projection: $33 million opening, $145 million finish

You Again

Disney is going all out in this mega chick flick. The cast is impressive (Jamie Lee Curtis, Sigourney Weaver, Kristen Bell, Odette Yustman, Kristin Chenoweth, Victor Garber and Betty White) and the release date is nice. The film should take away from other chick flicks during the month and have a nice run to break out of Disney's mini-slump.

Movie Best To Compare It To: The Game Plan (the director's last film, which opened at the exact slot three years earlier and had the same distributor)
Box Office Projection: $21 million opening, $72 million finish

Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps

Gordon Gekko returns to Wall Street with a new agenda and new protege. Despite positive early word, will people return for Oliver Stone's second stab at the character?

Movies Best To Compare It To: W. (Oliver Stone's last film) and Rocky Balboa (another comeback of an iconic character)
Box Office Projection: $14 million opening, $45 million finish

In limited release...

Title Most Likely To Break Out:
The Virginity Hit (September 10th)

Title Most Likely To Fall Flat On Its Face:
Catfish (September 17th)

[Shrykespeare]

Some good predictions in there, Boosh, but I've been seeing trailers for Alpha and Omega behind movies for two months now. You really think it can't possibly do better?

[Buscemi]

Trailer reaction has been negative. Also I remember Battle For Terra (from Lionsgate) also getting decent advertising but had a weak opening (despite positive reviews and actually looking decent).

Anyways, here's October.

October 1st

The Social Network

David Fincher returns to Oscar bait territory with this partly-fictionalized story about the formation of Facebook. Michael Cera clone Jesse Eisenberg plays Mark Zuckerberg as an antagonist. Not helping is that a lot of the film's target audience (college students and young adults) have treated the film as a joke with parodies of the trailer and concept.

Movies Best To Compare It To: Snakes On A Plane (the online snark bait) and Zombieland (same date, same studio and same lead)
Box Office Projection: $13 million opening, $36 million finish

Let Me In

Hollywood remake of 2008's arthouse hit Let The Right One In. Despite early negative word, the film has been building positive buzz online and at Comic-Con (thanks to early trailers and a promise by producers that it would stay as close to the source material as possible). Not helping is that the film changed hands recently and advertising has been light (since Relativity also has a logjam of Catfish, Jack Goes Boating, My Soul To Take and Stone in a four week span).

Movie Best To Compare It To: Kick-Ass (both movies star Chloe Moretz in a major role and built its buzz at Comic-Con and online)
Box Office Projection: $16 million opening, $43 million finish

Case 39

This long-on-the-shelf (filming started in 2006) Renee Zellweger horror film is only getting a release now due to co-star Bradley Cooper's recent success and decent box office in Latin America (yes, Mexico got this movie before the US did). Seeing that Paramount will use its Vantage label (reactivated recently to dump films with the occasional potential arthouse hit), I don't expect much box office.

Movie Best To Compare It To: Darkness (another long-delayed horror film starring an Academy Award winner that had success in Latin America)
Box Office Projection: $2 million opening, $4 million finish

October 8th

Secretariat

Diane Lane and John Malkovich star in this true story about the rise to Secretariat's dominance during the 1973 horse racing year (leading to a Triple Crown win). Knowing how audiences love their sports movies, this movie is chock full of obstacles the characters must meet to get the horse to race. And it has John Malkovich dressed like a pimp.

Movie Best To Compare It To: Seabiscuit (another horse movie with an accomplished cast and box office success)
Box Office Projection: $15 million opening, $65 million finish

Life As We Know It

Katherine Heigl, of the rapidly-declining kind of star power, teams up with television veterans Josh Duhamel and Christina Hendricks in this comedy about a couple who becomes the legal guardians of a baby after the death of the child's biological parents. If this sounds familiar, it does. It looks almost exactly like the Nancy Meyers-scripted comedy Baby Boom from 1987.

Movie Best To Compare It To: Baby Mama (another baby comedy starring an actress best known for television)
Box Office Projection: $12 million opening, $34 million finish

My Soul To Take

Wes Craven returns from a five-year hiatus with this long-delayed horror film about a serial killer who returns to a small Massachusetts town to kill the children who were born the night of his massacre. And one of those children may be his child. Sounds like one of his 1980's efforts.

Movie Best To Compare It To: Cursed (another long-delayed Wes Craven film)
Box Office Projection: $10 million opening, $23 million finish

October 15th

Jackass 3-D

Johnny Knoxville, Steve-O, Bam Margera and the gang return for a new theatrical adventure of the popular MTV series. Not much to explain really other than it's in 3-D and that Spike Jonze is following up Where The Wild Things Are by producing this movie.

Movie Best To Compare It To: Jackass Number Two (the previous installment)
Box Office Projection: $30 million opening, $75 million finish

RED

The first DC Comics movie since 1984's Supergirl not to be produced by Warner Bros., this comedy focuses on a special division of government agents known as RED (the title is an acronym for Retired, Extremely Dangerous) who are brought back together for a new mission to keep the world safe. The cast is great (Bruce Willis, Morgan Freeman, Helen Mirren, Mary-Louise Parker, John Malkovich, Richard Dreyfuss, Julian McMahon and even Ernest Borgnine appear) and it looks fun but I don't know about the chances.

Movies Best To Compare It To: Surrogates (Bruce Willis's last comic book adaptation) and The Expendables (another old guy buddy adventure)
Box Office Projection: $17 million opening, $50 million finish

October 22nd

Paranormal Activity 2

The last film became one of the definitive examples of sleeper hit when it went from spending two years on the shelf to opening as a midnight movie to grossing over $100 million in the US and giving horror the shot in the arm that it needed. So of course a sequel was bound to happen. With a new director and new characters, it looks to follow standard horror sequel convention. But will lightning strike twice? That remains to be seen.

Movies Best To Compare It To: Book Of Shadows: Blair Witch 2 (sequel to cultural phenomenon) and Paranormal Activity (the first movie)
Box Office Projection: $23 million opening, $46 million finish

Hereafter

At the ripe age of 80, Clint Eastwood is still pumping out at least one movie a year. His latest foray, a teaming with producer Steven Spielberg and writer Peter Morgan, will be a series of stories interconnected with the theme of death. Matt Damon stars in one story as a man who can speak to the dead. Sounds like good horror for the higher-educated.

Movies Best To Compare It To: Invictus (the director's last film) and What Lies Beneath (a successful horror film for adults starring a big name, also with Spielberg's involvement)
Box Office Projection: $14 million opening, $55 million finish

October 29th

Saw 3-D

This installment of the Saw series (promised to be the last) will mark the return of Dr. Gordon from the first movie (played by Cary Elwes again). However, will it be enough for this tired series?

Movie Best To Compare It To: Saw VI (the last movie in the series, well-received among fans but an underperformer)
Box Office Projection: $20 million opening, $38 million finish

In limited release...

Title Most Likely To Break Out:
Conviction (October 15th)

Title Most Likely To Fall Flat On Its Face:
I Want Your Money (October 15th)

[Buscemi]

And November.

November 5th

Megamind

DreamWorks Animation tries its hand at the superhero genre by casting Brad Pitt (in a role originally set to star Robert Downey Jr.) and Will Ferrell in a lifelong battle (starting at birth) for the fate of the world. Tired of losing every battle, Megamind (Ferrell) creates his ultimate battle plan for the world. He kidnaps Tina Fey and only Metroman (Pitt) can save her and Earth from Megamind's plans. Being the first big November title, it should have no problem at good box office numbers.

Movie Best To Compare It To: Monsters vs. Aliens (another DreamWorks film with alien villains and a sci-fi premise)
Box Office Projection: $59 million opening, $220 million finish

Due Date

Todd Phillips, fresh off of the cash cow that was The Hangover (seriously, the movie netted him over $50 million), returns to direct another R-rated road trip movie with Robert Downey Jr. stuck in a car with Zach Galifianakis while trying to get home for the birth of his child. Hijinks ensue. I can't see this one doing as well seeing that The Hangover was one of those "once-in-a-decade" movies that brings people together. I don't think Todd Phillips will be as successful this time.

Movie Best To Compare It To: Planes, Trains and Automobiles (which grossed $93 million adjusted for today's numbers) (similar premise but different situations)
Box Office Projections: $32 million opening, $105 million finish

November 12th

Unstoppable

Denzel Washington and Tony Scott return to the trains for this Speed-esque thriller about an unstoppable train and the only people who can stop it. Not sure how this will do so it is a wild card at this point.

Movie Best To Compare It To: The Taking Of Pelham 123 (Washington, Scott and trains)
Box Office Projections: $19 million opening, $55 million finish

Skyline

Rushed into production to beat Battle: Los Angeles into theatres, this independent production (picked up by Universal and Relativity back in May) depicts an alien invasion of Los Angeles and the only people who can fight back. Looks like a ripoff of Independence Day to me.

Movie Best To Compare It To: Aliens vs. Predator: Requiem (other "aliens invade Earth" movie from the same directors)
Box Office Projections: $15 million opening, $33 million finish

Morning Glory

J.J. Abrams produces a comedy about the goings-on at a news station. Rachel McAdams plays the producer whose job is to improve the news show's floundering ratings. Harrison Ford and Diane Keaton play the news anchors who flat out hate each other and who McAdams must help improve their relationship as well. At the moment the release structure isn't known but seeing Abrams' popularity, the film should be opening wide.

Movies Best To Compare It To: All About Steve (also featured the news industry) and Up In The Air (another Paramount film that skewed towards older audiences, in this case it was successful)
Box Office Projections: $12 million opening, $38 million finish

November 19th

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part I

Do I need to explain this one?

Movie Best To Compare It To: Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix (the last movie)
Box Office Projections: $125
million opening, $340 million finish

The Next Three Days

A mistaken identity thriller in which Russell Crowe's wife (Elizabeth Banks) is accused and convicted of murder. Knowing she is innocent and unable to convince authority otherwise, he relies on the work of one Liam Neeson to stage a breakout. Much different than the director's Crash but fits in with the suspense/thriller genre of his In The Valley Of Elah.

Movies Best To Compare It To: In The Valley Of Elah (same director, similar genre) and Law Abiding Citizen (both featured popular international actors playing good men taking the law into their own hands, both are also set in Pennsylvania)
Box Office Projections: $16 million opening, $45 million finish

November 24th

Tangled

The latest Disney animated feature, it is their second Disney Princesses movie in a row. Based on the story of Rapunzel (which will be the movie's international title), Disney's version will have a revisionist comedy feel to it. The first trailer was pretty bad but I have read that the final product is nothing like what was shown in the trailer.

Movie Best To Compare It To: The Princess and the Frog (the last Disney Princesses movie)
Box Office Projections: $22 million three-day, $33 million five-day, $105 million finish

Faster

Dwayne Johnson makes a return to the action genre with this R-rated homage to Walter Hill's The Driver (Johnson's character is even named Driver). The trailer, though brief and vague in plot details, has been getting a nice reception so it is possible that it is CBS's first hit (CBS has even picked up Jason Statham's Bronson remake The Mechanic in anticipation that Faster will do well).

Movie Best To Compare It To: Walking Tall (another Dwayne Johnson film where he kicks ass)
Box Office Projections: $14 million three-day, $20 million five-day, $48 million finish

Love and Other Drugs

Having had little success with influencing the Academy with his dramas, Edward Zwick decides to go the comedy route with this 1990's-set comedy about a salesman/womanizer who makes a killing with the debut of a certain little blue pill while trying to woo Anne Hathaway. I don't know if it's just me but Jake Gyllenhaal just seems way too unlikeable as the lead. It's nothing personal against Jake but it's just not right to see him like that.

Movie Best To Compare It To: Brothers (Jake Gyllenhaal's last Holiday release)
Box Office Projections: $9 million three-day, $13 million five-day, $28 million finish

Burlesque

Christina Aguilera attempts to go where other successful artists (Britney Spears, Mariah Carey, Jessica Simpson, etc.) before her have failed: acting. And with the looks of this "Showgirls without the skin" or "Cabaret for the modern age", I don't think the film will do her any favors. Even with an accomplished cast (Cher, Stanley Tucci, Kristen Bell) and actors familiar to the teens (Cam Gigandet, Julianne Hough), it looks like it's got bomb all over it. Not helping the film is comparisons to 2001's Glitter.

Movie Best To Compare It To: Showgirls (both films focused on exotic dancing and attempted to launch careers to stardom)
Box Office Projections: $5 million three-day, $8 million five-day, $14 million finish

In limited release...

Title Most Likely To Break Out:
127 Hours (November 5th)

Title Most Likely To Fall Flat On Its Face:
Welcome To The Rileys (November 5th)

[undeadmonkey]

some of your predictions seem alright. but you can not compare The Social Network to Snakes on a Train. That's just crazy. Anyway, there's a review out for the social network, the first official review. and it is actually pretty good. (not saying the movie is good, but i'm saying the review is good and the reviewer liked the movie.

here is the link if anyone that is interested
http://www.filmlinc.com/nyff/2010/revenge-of-the-nerd


oh and it's pretty spoiler free if any of you care. no major spoilers as far as i can tell. I know a lot of people just see it as another cash in on a brand name, because people were running out of sequels and board games. but I think this review at least shows that it's an actual serious movie trying to tell a compelling story. and wether you like or even just admit it or not, facebook is a huge cultural influence on the whole world.

[Buscemi]

I compared The Social Network to Snakes On A Plane due to the online opinion of both films. Snakes On A Plane was made fun of because of the camp factor and it's exactly what it says on the tin title. The Social Network is getting made fun of because of its concept. Both films have become a bit of a joke for people on the Internet.

[undeadmonkey]

Well that's because people think they are trying to make the concept of facebook into a movie. For example people that i've talked to think it's going to be about adding friends and poking people, tagging people in pictures, etc, all these things that you do on facebook. But Fincher is actually trying to make a film that is socially relevant and try to show how much facebook really has changed our lives. I don't want to sound overdramatic, but it really has changed the way we interact with people. It might not seem like that big of a deal, but when you actually take a step back and think about it and look at the big picture, it's pretty crazy.

[Donte77]

It might not seem like that big of a deal, but when you actually take a step back and think about it and look at the big picture, it's pretty crazy.

Having the thought of slicing bread instead of having to cut it yourself changed the world too but I don't want to watch that movie either.