2011-More Blockbusters than 2010!More Blockbusters than EVER

[delfinasu]

2011 is gonna be with a lot of blockbusters, maybe (90% ) more than 2010...
Let's see a little list, extracted from BOM:

January
• The Green Hornet (in 3-D) (Sony) - 1/14
• What You Don't Know (Uni.) - 1/14
• The Dark Fields (Rog.) - 1/21
• Untitled Ashton Kutcher/Natalie Portman Project (Par.) - 1/21

February
• Sanctum (3D) (Uni.) - 2/4
• Drive Angry (in 3D) (Sum.) - 2/11
• Just Go With It (Sony) - 2/11
• I Am Number Four (BV) - 2/18
• The Eagle (Focus) - 2/25
• Hall Pass (WB) - 2/25

March
• The Adjustment Bureau (Uni.) - 3/4
• Rango (Par.) - 3/4
• Battle: Los Angeles (Sony) - 3/11
• Mars Needs Moms (in 3D) (BV) - 3/11
• Red Riding Hood (WB) - 3/11
• Paul (Uni.) - 3/18
• Sucker Punch (in 3D) (WB) - 3/25

April
• Hop (Uni.) - 4/1
• Hanna (Focus) - 4/8
• Rio (Fox) - 4/8
• Scream 4 (Dim.) - 4/15
• The Three Musketeers (2011) (Sum.) - 4/15
• The Thing (2011) (Uni.) - 4/29
• What's Your Number? (Fox) - 4/29

May
• Jumping the Broom (TriS) - 5/6
• Thor (Par.) - 5/6
• Bridesmaid (Uni.) - 5/13
• Priest (in 3D) (SGem) - 5/13
• Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides (3D) (BV) - 5/20
• The Hangover 2 (WB) - 5/26
• Kung Fu Panda: The Kaboom of Doom (P/DW) - 5/26

June
• X-Men: First Class (Fox) - 6/3
• Fast Five (Uni.) - 6/10
• Something Borrowed (WB) - 6/10
• Green Lantern (in 3D) (WB) - 6/17
• Cars 2 (BV) - 6/24
• Rise of the Apes (tentative title) (Fox) - 6/24

July
• Transformers 3 (P/DW) - 7/1
• Zookeeper (MGM) - 7/8
• Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows (Part Two in 3D) (WB) - 7/15
• The Sitter (Fox) - 7/15
• Winnie the Pooh (BV) - 7/15
• Captain America: The First Avenger (Par.) - 7/22
• Cowboys & Aliens (Uni.) - 7/29
• Horrible Bosses (WB) - 7/29

August
• The Smurfs (in 3D) (Sony) - 8/3
• The Change-Up (Uni.) - 8/5
• War Horse (BV) - 8/10
• Spy Kids 4: All the Time in the World (in 3-D) (Wein.) - 8/19
• Final Destination 5 (WB) - 8/26

September
• Journey to the Center of the Earth 2 (3D) (WB) - 9/23
• Underworld 4 (no longer in 3D) (SGem) - 9/23

October
• Fright Night (in 3-D) (BV) - 10/7
• Contagion (3D) (WB) - 10/21

November
• Puss in Boots (working title) (P/DW) - 11/4
• Arthur Christmas (in 3D) (Sony) - 11/11
• Immortals (in 3D) (Rog.) - 11/11
• Happy Feet 2 in 3D (WB) - 11/18
• Real Steel (Dis.) - 11/18
• The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn (Sum.) - 11/18
• Project X (2011) (WB) - 11/23

December
• Hugo Cabret (in 3D) (Sony) - 12/9
• New Year's Eve (WB) - 12/9
• Alvin and the Chipmunks 3D (Fox) - 12/16
• Mission: Impossible IV (Par.) - 12/16
• Sherlock Holmes 2 (WB) - 12/16
• The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo (2011) (Sony) - 12/21
• The Adventures of Tintin: The Secret of the Unicorn (in 3D) (Par.) - 12/23
• We Bought a Zoo (Fox) - 12/23
• The Muppets (temporary title) (BV) - 12/25

So, we have:
- more than 30 movies, potential blockbusters, with more than $100M cume possible; 20 with more than $200M possible...
- 28-30 3D movies ;
- 30 sequels/prequels/remakes
- 5 comic books-based movies
- 8 animated movies

Keep in mind that this list is not final and also we'll have some surprises like this year (Despicable Me, even Alice in Wonderland), last year (Hangover, Blind Side, Proposal)...

What do you think? It will be a great year, or not?

[Buscemi]

-What You Don't Know will get pushed back. Too many names and too big of a director for it to open in January.
-The Green Hornet could do well but it depends on the reviews.
-The Dark Fields and Untitled Ashton Kutcher/Natalie Portman Project are DOA.
-Sanctum could be the next District 9. That's why I drafted it.
-Just Go With It will be another Sandler hit.
-Drive Angry looks like a flop.
-I Am Number Four should do well, depending on if the book (by James Frey, the Million Little Pieces guy) sells well.
-The Eagle is a flop. Test screenings have gone badly and often book adaptations that change their names to something different fail (this is based on the book The Eagle of the Ninth).
-Hall Pass could do alright but I think The Farrelly Brothers's time has passed (unless their Three Stooges movie gets made).
-The Adjustment Bureau is a flop. The tests haven't been favorable and it's been pushed back a few times.
-Rango is a hit. Johnny Depp and Gore Verbinski always deliver.
-Battle: Los Angeles will flop. Opening in March clearly shows a lack of confidence in the product.
-Mars Needs Moms should do fine but competition will hurt it.
-I expect Red Riding Hood to get pushed back since Sucker Punch will be opening on March 25th.
-Paul looks like it will do numbers similar to Hot Fuzz but could outgross Scott Pilgrim.
-Sucker Punch will gross less than Watchmen. Studios don't like to release women-oriented action flicks (unless they have a proven name like Angelina Jolie or Milla Jovovich).
-Hop will do Tale Of Despereaux numbers. Most people hate Russell Brand (yes he was in Despicable Me but that was promoted more as a family comedy with Carell and Miranda Cosgrove) and the concept sounds too bizarre for average viewers.
-Hanna will do Soloist numbers.
-Rio will outgross Hop. Blue Sky has been hot since Horton Hears A Who and Ice Age 3.
-Scream 4 will gross half of Scream 3's numbers. This reboot smells of desperation since The Weinstein Company needs a hit.
-The Three Musketeers could be a hit or it could flop like most Summit release.
-The Thing will perform like the other John Carpenter remakes (one good weekend then a quick drop).
-What's Your Number should do okay for Anna Faris but the male leads don't do any favors (outside of Quinto).
-Jumping The Broom will do average for urban films.
-Thor should gross numbers inbetween Iron Man 2 and The Incredible Hulk. Chris Hemsworth isn't as big as Robert Downey Jr.
-Bridesmaid will change dates to avoid a duel against Jumping The Broom.
-Priest may be pushed back yet again. Sony has absolutely no confidence in it.
-Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides is a unneeded sequel and will most likely perform like one. $200 million.
-The Hangover 2 will probably get pushed back. Filming doesn't start until October and I don't think Todd Phillips and company will want a rushed sequel.
-Kung Fu Panda 2 should outgross the original.

[Buscemi]

-X-Men: First Class should satisfy fans after the disappointing taste of The Last Stand and Wolverine (after all, Vaughn and Goldman gave us Kick-Ass so it's in good hands).
-Fast Five will restart the decline of the Fast and the Furious series.
-Something Borrowed will get pushed back. Ginnifer Goodwin is usually a supporting actress while Kate Hudson is in decline.
-Green Lantern will perform similar to Superman Returns. Box office will be fine but people won't really like it (due to Ryan Reynolds). The sequel will end up improving things.
-Cars 2 will do well. The merchandising will make sure of it.
-Rise Of The Apes will be a reboot that fails. James Franco will get out of unscathed though.
-Transformers 3 will perform closer to the first than the second. It will get the best reviews of the series though.
-Zookeeper will do well. Kevin James hasn't disappointed yet.
-Harry Potter could be the biggest movie of 2011. It will be Return Of The King/Revenge Of The Sith all over again.
-I don't know anything about The Sitter other than Jonah Hill's in it. Flop.
-Winnie The Pooh will perform like the last two Winnie The Pooh movies that have gone to theatres. I'm surprised that this is a summer release rather than a spring release.
-Captain America will be the most hated film of 2011. It will open well but word of mouth will be toxic. It might as well be 2011's top Razzie contender.
-Cowboys and Aliens will be interesting but audiences simply won't get it. But it will be big on DVD.
-Horrible Bosses will be the end of Seth Gordon's fifteen minutes as people will finally realize he is a talentless hack.
-The Smurfs will be a critical disaster (Katy Perry as Smurfette? Seriously?) but should get to $100 million.
-The Change-Up will be one of the lesser Apatow performers.
-War Horse will continue to prove Spielberg's ability to sell anything (this one is a family-oriented World War I film). Definite hit.
-Spy Kids 4 will be another failed reboot (and Rodriguez is only making it to fulfill a contract). More Weinstein desperation.
-Final Destination 5 will do similar numbers to The Final Destination.
-Journey To The Center Of The Earth 2 will gross half of the original's numbers (since Brendan Fraser isn't returning).
-Underworld 4 will do similar numbers to the others.
-Fright Night will depend on the reviews (and if audiences want to see Colin Farrell do a horror film).
-Contagion will be interesting but will probably be middleground for Soderbergh.


Meanwhile, I noticed that you didn't list Your Highness. If promoted like Pineapple Express and not like Year One, that could do well. Also, early tests have been good.

[undeadmonkey]

I was thinking the same thing a few days back, Although I think you listed a few iffy ones. but i still agree with you on a lot of those.

[W]

Battle Los Angeles: Opening in March doesn't guarantee a flop anymore. In the last two years, we've had Watchmen, Monsters vs. Aliens, Alice in Wonderland, and How to Train Your Dragon pass the $100 M (and $300 M) mark... Or how about 300 or Wild Hogs from years past? People are much more willing to see movies during the down months that they used to be.

[Buscemi]

-Puss In Boots should perform like the other Shrek movies.
-I would love to see an Aardman movie break out like Chicken Run but Arthur Christmas probably won't be it.
-Immortals will flop. The concept sounds like a clone of Clash Of The Titans and Tarsem isn't a very mainstream director (his last mainstream film, The Cell, divided audiences).
-Happy Feet 2 should do fine. Audiences loved the last movie.
-Real Steel sounds stupid but people will see it.
-Breaking Dawn will be the lowest-grossing Twilight film. Summit basically split it into two movies knowing this.
-Project X isn't going to be a blockbuster. It's more of an experiment than a movie (since a lot of it will be based on the Internet).
-The Invention of Hugo Cabret will be an interesting one. Scorsese has never made a family film before but it should have no problem doing well.
-New Year's Eve will gross less than its previous film (Valentine's Day).
-Alvin and the Chipmunks 3-D will perform like the others.
-Mission: Impossible IV will be middleground for the series (even with the interesting choice of Brad Bird as director).
-Sherlock Holmes 2 will gross less than the first (I still believe that this should be a prequel rather than a sequel to tie up all of the loose ends from the first).
-The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo is a flop. This is a remake that's coming way too soon.
-Tintin will do well. It's Spielberg and Jackson teaming up so it has to highly anticipated.
-We Bought A Zoo won't be the breakout hit that Cameron Crowe needs but it should be a return to form.
-I would love to see The Muppets do well but I'm not sure if audiences will see something that's been on TV for years (their last theatrical film came in 1999 and flopped).

[undeadmonkey]

I still say that the idea of Inception was in sparked in some way by The Cell

[BanksIsDaFuture]

I don't know how it'll do, but Im.mortal sounds like a great concept.

[Buscemi]

I think that Just Go With It will flop now. It's got Jennifer Aniston and Nicole Kidman in it and both are box office poison.

[Ron Burgundy]

The Cell and Inception: No relation what so ever...thats just ridiculous. The Cell had someone getting their intestines wound out of them, you could also have said that Inception is related to Virtuosity/Vanilla Sky.

[delfinasu]

on topic: I created a little list with 30 potential blockbusters of 2011 with chances for more than $100M.

link: http://www.imdb.com/list/odMmrzaL3wo/

[W]

So far this year, there are 18 $100 M+ films and last year there were 21 at the same point (pre OCT releases). 2009 had 32 in all, so I think there may be a few more, maybe, but most of them are just easier to see this year than previous years.

[Buscemi]

-Cowboys and Aliens won't hit $100 million. The concept seems too out here for younger audiences and older audiences usually don't go for genre material. It reminds me more of Stardust than anything.
-The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo remake will flop. This project was doomed the minute they cast Rooney Mara as Lisabeth (getting the role more for her blue blood status rather than her acting talent).
-Fast Five won't hit $100 million. Fast and Furious was lucky to do so well and a fifth installment will probably gross half of its numbers.
-Rio will underperform due to facing several other animated films at the same time. Also, it looks like something that was released in 2006.
-Scream 4 will only do half of Scream 3's numbers. No one really asked for another film in this series.
-Sucker Punch will be another box office disappointment for Zach Snyder. Also, Hollywood isn't very big on female-dominated action films not featuring Angelina Jolie or Milla Jovovich.
-Winnie The Pooh will perform like the other theatrical Winnie The Pooh films (even though this one is a reboot focused on Christopher Robin's daughter).
-Immortals will be seen as a Clash Of The Titans/300 imitator. Also Relativity is releasing it and as seen with Let Me In's poor marketing, they won't care to release it.

Meanwhile, I still see Captain America being the biggest underperformer of 2011. Damn near everything I've seen or heard from it makes it look awful. I'm guessing it will perform similar to the Hulk movies.

Meanwhile, I can see these hitting $100 million.

-Mars Needs Moms (even though we haven't seen a trailer or poster yet)
-War Horse (A war movie opening in the summer directed by Spielberg and written by Richard Curtis? This can't fail!)

Also, I saw that Warner Bros. is expecting Horrible Bosses to be big (even attempting to launch two of the actors to stardom). However, Going The Distance was supposed to launch those same two actors and it failed.

[BanksIsDaFuture]

Fast Five WON'T hit $100M?!?!?

F4rious was a huge hit and everyone's coming back PLUS they're adding Ludacris and Tyrese from earlier installments, and bringing The Rock into the fold.

[Buscemi]

As I said, Fast and Furious was a fluke (and it had almost no competition in terms of its market). Meanwhile Fast Five has to face The Hangover 2 and X-Men: First Class, along with Green Lantern, Rise Of The Apes and Transformers 3 in forthcoming weeks. With Your Highness in the spot that Fast and Furious opened in, I don't see it getting lucky and moving into a spot where it has no competition (also Your Highness was delayed from this month and the tests have been good on it so another delay would be a dumb idea for that movie).