The Next Few Months (Analysis On Future Releases)

[Buscemi]

What a difference one month makes. Beastly gets pulled from release by the distributor, the infamous Friedberg/Seltzer team announce a vampire spoof to be developed, filmed and released in less than three months, The Adjustment Bureau moves back and Charlie St. Cloud and Alpha and Omega move up. Meanwhile, we still have a number of new projects that seem to be bubbling under the surface but rising or haven't been heard from yet. I will analyze release from June to October for this piece.

June 4th

Marmaduke (opening in 3,000 theatres)- I haven't been seeing very much promotion for this (surprising I know) but I still think it can do decent numbers. Also, remember that Owen Wilson's last dog movie grossed $135 million.

Get Him To The Greek (opening in 2,700 theatres)- Russell Brand is considered overrated in the US. Jonah Hill is considered one of the weaker Judd Apatow regulars. Bring in the weakest part of Forgetting Sarah Marshall, Jonah Hill playing himself and a host of non-actors and you get...another disappointment from Judd Apatow.

Killers (opening in 2,700 theatres)- I don't think that I've seen a studio be so desperate in trying to push a movie like Lionsgate has been with Killers. Ads for this movie have been everywhere in an attempt to reduce the film's bad reputation. Also not helping matters is that the film is Lionsgate's highest budgeted film in which they financed the entire production themselves (the forthcoming Expendables has a higher budget but that was a co-production). Meanwhile, Katherine Heigl is beginning to become hated among Hollywood circles for saying one thing and doing another while Ashton Kutcher isn't really seen as an actor anymore. This film is a disaster waiting to happen.

Splice (opening in 2,500 theatres)- this independently-made Canadian pickup has been picking up some steam lately with its positive early word and heavy advertising. Helping matters is its quality cast (Academy Award winner Adrien Brody and Academy Award nominee Sarah Polley) and crew (Vincenzo Natali is the director while Guillermo del Toro is producing). Could we see a surprise Top 3 finisher next week?

June 11th

The A-Team- sure the failure of MacGruber has led to the questioning of this film's box office chances, but I think The A-Team and MacGyver are two different things. Also, The A-Team still seems to have appeal today. Also helping matters is the fact that three of the leads (Neeson, Cooper, Copley) all had major breakout roles last year. This should have no problem making money.

The Karate Kid- tests for this have gone well but I think the damage has been done for this in-name-only remake. Another flop for Jackie Chan.

June 18th

Toy Story 3- at this point, it's impossible for this movie to disappoint. The whole year depends on its success.

Jonah Hex- I think we all know how bad this one will turn out. Next.

June 25th

Knight and Day- most showings of this film's trailers have gotten good to great reactions from the audience (beginning with the teaser's debut before Avatar). But have audiences finally gotten over the Tom Cruise couch-jumping incident (along with his heavy Scientology promotion)? With his last two movies having been hits, I think they have.

Grown Ups- Adam Sandler's box officen numbers have declined lately but his movies still manage to gross $100 million most of time. Going into familiar territory again (after some detours into social-type comedy, fantasy and dramedy), this could be a return to the "easy $100 million" territory rather than "barely $100 million" territory. However, trailer reception has been average at best. Think about it.

[Buscemi]

July 2nd

Eclipse- I think we all know how that this will be big. But how big? I expect a lower gross that New Moon since the curiosity won't be here this time. It will be strictly a fan affair.

The Last Airbender- declining director + cult anime + studio meddling = bombs away

July 9th

Predators- Robert Rodriguez and Nimrod Antal's reboot of the 1987 film Predator should breathe some new life into the series. However, it depends on how Fox pushes the film and if word of mouth is good on it. Anyways, I expect a decent opening but a quick drop as with most horror films.

Despicable Me- wow, the advertising has been terrible for this movie. It's probably a good reason that Universal is not one of the top studios when it comes to animation. Despite its premise promising a comedic battle between Steve Carell and Jason Segel along with some cute little minions, I expect a disappointment at the box office and some firings at the Universal marketing department.

July 16th

The Sorcerer's Apprentice- a Wednesday opening may help this one but honestly, it just looks like another disappointment from Nicolas Cage. Disney is trying to sell us another Jerry Bruckheimer action fest but it just looks like they turned a Mickey Mouse cartoon into Race To Witch Mountain in New York City.

Inception- so we all know that this will make money but how much? Well, it won't be huge like The Dark Knight and it won't be a one-week wonder like Watchmen so what's the guess? I'll guess $165 million but no more.

July 23rd

Salt

When Angelina Jolie does a movie, they flop most of the time. When Angelina Jolie gets to shoot people in a movie, they do well most of the time. Well, she gets to shoot people here so you can easily expect a hit.

Dinner For Schmucks

This long-in-development-hell remake of The Dinner Game finally arrives with Steve Carell and Paul Rudd in the leads. And by the looks of the trailers, it looks like another remake that just misses the point completely. More obnoxious than funny (and with Paul Rudd playing the same character he always does), it basically looks like people bickering for two hours. I wonder if this will get Steve Carell to go for something different afterwards? Or get Paul Rudd to play something else for once.

Ramona and Beezus

The project looks well-intentioned (a positive movie for young girls after the setting women back beliefs of Eclipse) but Fox doesn't seem to have any enthusiasm for the film. The film has already changed dates twice (the first change was to make way for Diary Of A Wimpy Kid) and the books are a product of the 1970's rather than today. Selena Gomez (the Beezus of the title) and her appeal among tweens could bring in audiences but it probably won't do any better than Kit Kittridge (which was well-received but did little against Wall-E and Kung Fu Panda).

July 30th

Cats and Dogs: The Revenge Of Kitty Galore

I have to admit that the 3-D conversion here looks good but seriously, a sequel to Cats and Dogs? That dumb 2001 movie that was nothing more than a quick paycheck for Jeff Goldblum and Tobey Maguire? Does anyone even remember that movie? Yes, this movie is DOA.

Charlie St. Cloud

The movie that forced Beastly off of the 2010 schedule. But honestly, was it worth it? We all saw Robert Pattison swing and miss on attempting a serious drama back in March so why would Zac Efron do any better? Also the film looks pretty generic and not something that anyone would want to see in the summer. One of the summer's biggest duds.

[Buscemi]

August 6th

The Other Guys

Will Ferrell and Mark Wahlberg will try to get out of a box office slump by teaming up with Samuel L. Jackson and Dwayne Johnson in this action comedy from the director of Talladega Nights and Step Brothers. It should do well but surprisingly enough, I haven't really seen any trailers before any movies or have an idea what it's really about. But then again, it's still a few months before release.

Step Up 3-D

I really don't know how these movies make money but it has become a gold mine for domestic distributor Disney and international distributor Summit with their low budgets and simple "street-wise hood rat wins heart of rich teen by hip-hop dancing" premises remade again and again. So it should be no surprise that Step Up 3-D and its Disneyified wigger culture/cliche 1980's romance plot has a built-in audience from people who liked the first two. Helping things is the 3-D, as shown by various movies improve sequel box office numbers and recent UK success StreetDance 3-D beating Disney's Prince Of Persia on opening weekend.

Flipped

Rob Reiner's last film grossed almost $100 million in the United States alone. So how come we haven't heard anything about his newest movie, a period comedy for family audiences that has been complete since early last year? Is it really that bad? Or did Warner Bros. put so much money into additional work on Clash Of The Titans and Jonah Hex that they don't have enough money to even open the film?

Middle Men

Paramount picked up this independently-made crime comedy based on a true story some time ago but has only started to promote the film. Announcements of the film from Paramount have fallen on deaf ears but it is hard to mention a small indie film with the likes of Iron Man 2 and The Last Airbender. Also it isn't known what type of release the film will be getting but considering the number of familiar names in the cast (such as James Caan, Luke Wilson and Giovanni Ribisi), a wide release shouldn't be out of the question.

August 13th

The Expendables

Though Sylvester Stallone hasn't hit the $100 million mark since the godawful Spy Kids 3-D and his co-stars Jason Statham (The Italian Job) and Jet Li (The Mummy: Tomb Of The Dragon Emperor, Lethal Weapon 4) have only hit it in supporting roles, this festival of machismo has a fair shot at being a big hit. So far, the trailer has been getting good reception (most notably during the Arnold Schwarzenegger and Bruce Willis cameos) and promises lots of action with a side of comic relief.

Eat, Pray, Love

Though the film looks like every other Julia Roberts movie and Ryan Murphy is far more proven in television, this could easily be this year's Julie and Julia. The book is a best-seller and like many other chick flicks, it will be a legs film. We could see a return of Julia Roberts with this one.

Scott Pilgrim vs. The World

So Edgar Wright decides to abandon Simon Pegg and Nick Frost for a movie by adapting an obscure Canadian graphic novel about the struggles of one Toronto man's love life. And it has charisma sucker Michael Cera in the lead. The trailer has been getting a good reception and the graphic novel has a small but devoted following but how well it do in the end against Stallone and Julia Roberts? I don't expect this story to have a happy ending.

August 20th

Untitled Vampire Spoof

Oh God, Fox is actually giving Friedberg and Seltzer another chance? Why can't they just screw with these guys like they do everyone else? Well after audiences got tired of their schtick with Disaster Movie (in which they spoofed scenes from the trailers to movies) and since everyone else is spoofing Twilight (hell, the end of Dance Flick was one big Twilight parody with Damon Wayans' son as Edward), this "comeback" from the duo of bottom of the barrel comedy will fall flat.

Nanny McPhee Returns

People might not remember the first Nanny McPhee but it was a surprise hit at the box office during its 2006 release. This sequel, which brings back Emma Thompson as the darker counterpart of Mary Poppins, has been a hit in its native UK and should manage a decent gross with a new audience of children and people who saw the first from DVD viewings. Also, we remember that Mr. Bean's Holiday fared well three years earlier at the same spot.

Lottery Ticket

Basically a PG-13 version of the Friday formula, Ice Cube writes, co-produces and co-stars in this comedy about two men, a winning lottery ticket and the attempt to keep it a secret from a scheming community. By the looks of the trailer, you've seen the whole movie but some people may go see it anyway to see if Ice Cube's got anything left.

Takers

This long-delayed heist movie is looking rather DOA with its TV cop drama-style and ridiculous costumes. Also not helping: controversial rappers T.I. and Chris Brown in lead roles.

The Switch

It's got names that are familiar to audiences but I'm afraid that this is DOA at the box office also. The premise was done already as The Back-Up Plan (another movie with a sperm donor as a main character, The Kids Are All Right, opens in July), the distributor has no interest in really distributing it and it's got perhaps the year's worst movie poster. This is one movie that will be forgotten by the end of the year.

August 27th

Piranha 3-D

Its premise looks fun and it has a good cast of B-movie veterans and familiar faces. And it's in 3-D. However The Weinstein Company has delayed the movie several times since its initial July 2009 release date and knowing Harvey and Bob, they may delay it again. Anyways, this is one of those movies that could go either way. It could be a hit like another 3-D remake, My Bloody Valentine or a flop like Weinstein's Halloween II.

Going The Distance

Starring former couple Drew Barrymore and Justin Long and directed by documentary filmmaker Nanette Burstein (the transition from documentaries to features has rarely, if ever, been successful), this is basically another mid-budgeted romantic comedy designed to fill auditoriums for a few weeks before making studio coin on DVD and cable. In short, it should do average for the genre.

The Last Exorcism

After a brief detour with playing The Bear Jew and directing Nation's Pride in Inglourious Basterds, Eli Roth returns to the horror genre as producer of The Last Exorcism. Inspired by The Exorcist and Paranormal Activity while being from the executive producers of The Haunting In Connecticut and The Fourth Kind, the film combines actual events with camcorder film and realism techniques to create a natural viewer experience. I have read that this film could go either way but against other genre titles, I expect a gross similar to Roth's Hostel Part II from 2007.

[Buscemi]

September 3rd

The American- the director of Control follows his debut with this thriller with George Clooney. The trailer is currently being run on some prints of Iron Man 2 so it is getting some exposure. However, the fact that it is an early September opener does hurt its chances. In short, it could perform similar to Burn After Reading or it could bomb.

Machete- this spinoff of Grindhouse was originally intended to be a straight-to-DVD production but upgraded to a theatrical production that was independently financed by the director with international sales and will be distributed by Fox. The film features a large ensemble cast for a small independent film (Danny Trejo, Robert De Niro, Jessica Alba, Don Johnson, Lindsay Lohan, Steven Seagal, Jeff Fahey, Michelle Rodriguez, Cheech Marin and probably some others that I'm forgetting) and already has a following made of fans of Grindhouse (where the character Machete came from). I don't expect much in terms of box office but it will do well on DVD.

September 10th

Resident Evil: Afterlife

I guess that people aren't tiring of this series still this installment is expected to be the most successful in the series. Hell, it's getting the 3-D and IMAX treatment. It probably benefits from the fact that it's the only film opening on the September 10th weekend but I don't expect the lofty goals that others are expecting.

September 17th

The Town

Ben Affleck's follow-up to 2007's Gone Baby Gone apparently isn't expected to do well among studio brass since it's opening in September rather than an Oscar season month like December. But with a pairing such as Ben Affleck and Jon Hamm (with Rebecca Hall and Blake Lively in support), it shouldn't have a problem drumming up business. I'm thinking it will perform like The Informant.

The Adjustment Bureau

This Matt Damon sci-fi romance was pushed back from July since Summer isn't really the type of month to open a movie like this. That and it looks really boring. Despite being based on a Phillip K. Dick story, this movie looks more like a boring romance with a sci-fi plot (along with characters that look like they came from Richard Kelly's The Box) thrown in to attract male audiences. Also not helping things is the fact that the director is a first-timer but working with established names like Damon and Emily Blunt. This is a dud.

Easy A

Despite her appeal among studio heads, Emma Stone is actually pretty overrated to me. None of her performances have impressed me and she never really adds anything to a movie. But here she is in a modern-day retelling of The Scarlet Letter (wait, did Demi Moore try this back in 1995?) from the director of Fired Up. I think I see where this is going. Yep, the target audience will ignore it.

Alpha and Omega

Lionsgate has never had any success with animation but here they are trying again with this DTV-looking comedy with Christina Ricci and Justin Long voicing wolves. The film is apparently in 3-D but the trailer shown before Shrek Forever After had no 3-D effects whatsoever other than the "Coming Soon" screen. That's pretty bad, Lionsgate. However, there is an outside chance that the film could do well since it was one of Dennis Hopper's last movies (he recorded a voice some time before his passing). But anyways, it will probably get a week in most places before being pulled in favor of Legend Of The Guardians.

[Buscemi]

Answers so far:

-Marmaduke flops (due to lack of advertising)
-Get Him To The Greek performs average (on target here)
-Killers performs average (but has no shot of returning its budget back)
-Splice flops (despite positive reviews)
-The A-Team has a disappointing opening but is performing decently for its genre
-The Karate Kid surprises
-Toy Story 3 is a huge hit (on target again)
-Jonah Hex is the flop of the summer (on target again)

Meanwhile, I was looking on Box Office Mojo's forums where everyone seems to have Legends Of The Guardians flopping solely due to its high concept (and also due to the fact that these people are still angry that Zach Snyder is doing something different). They're even gone out to use derisive terms on it by calling it "Owls" or "That Stupid Owl Movie". Could we be seeing another Karate Kid here?

Meanwhile, you'll never guess what they think will be big. Charlie St. Cloud and Easy A. A lot of those people think Charlie St. Cloud will hit over $100 million while apparently not realizing that Robert Pattinson attempted drama with Remember Me and only got $20 million. As for Easy A, it will be lucky to get an $8 million opening.

[Ron Burgundy]

Karate kid really did surprise.

A-Team hugely disappointing, probably wont even make 100M.

The Stupid Owl Movie will be ok, it might beat that Alpha and Omega

[Buscemi]

As I said, people (as in, comic book fanboys) only have Legend Of The Guardians flopping because it is Zach Snyder doing someone different (as in, someone that's not for comic book fanboys). Therefore, the fanboys are pissed off at him. The average person simply doesn't care about that.

But seriously, is there anything else coming out that month? Other than another Resident Evil sequel and You Again (women will flock to it, trust me), not really. Plus, families will see the words "from the creators of Happy Feet" and immediately buy tickets.

Meanwhile, everything on September 17th looks like it will flop. The Town has the best shot of doing well but Warner Bros. isn't pushing it, The Adjustment Bureau looks like another Box, Easy A will be more Fired Up than Superbad and Alpha and Omega is just another Battle For Terra.

[BanksIsDaFuture]

Who's thinks that Charlie St Cloud will hit $100M? The trailer gets no reaction and is pretty terrible, and I think the story is too far fetched even for hardcore Efron fans (do these exist?) to care.

Adjustment Bureau looks good but I don't know how it'll do. Easy A will be pretty big for its genre, I'm expected $60M at least.

[Buscemi]

Updates:

-Grown Ups is a hit (on target)
-Knight and Day had a disappointing opening but it's had legs
-Eclipse is a hit (on target)
-The Last Airbender is a surprise hit
-Predators opened well (on target)
-Despicable Me is a surprise hit (and Universal's marketing department has been praised rather than condemned)
-The Sorcerer's Apprentice is looking like a flop (on target)

And one new film to analyze:

Devil- Satan meets up with unsuspecting people in an elevator from the rising director of Quarantine. Sound good so far? Well, what if I told you that M. Night Shyamalan produced it and got final cut? And every trailer and poster made mention of this? Bad move, Universal. Either this will thrive on a weak weekend or flop completely against Resident Evil.

[jas8382]

Well I don't think you have worry with The Adjustment Bureau as I believe that it has since been moved back to next March according to Box Office Mojo. September does seem sparse (though there seems to be a really good selection of PTA films for Ultimate Leagues) so that works in favor of known quantities such as Resident Evil (and maybe Wall Street 2) and family films such as The Legend of the Guardians. If I was to pick a film that is going to breakout of September I would say Buried which while coming out only in limited release in September does come out in wide release in October and seems to be the only film coming out of September that I could see do well besides the films mentioned above.

[Buscemi]

I think You Again will be a hit. Trailer reaction has been positive and Betty White (the film's comic relief) is big right now. Also the cast is pretty high-quality. Not my type of movie but women will flock to it.

[numbersix]

Bety White is big in a kind of ironic way: "Look at the old person, and she's kinda funny, so kudos to her". Not sure if that'll translate to bums on seats.

Donte, as for Buried, didn't it get mixed reviews?

[Buscemi]

She's translated to good television ratings (her Saturday Night Live episode was the year's highest rated and Hot In Cleveland has been a summer hit on TV Land). Also, Warner Bros. is developing an Oh, God remake with her in the lead (the original starred George Burns, who lived to 100).

You Again also has Sigourney Weaver, Jamie Lee Curtis, Kristen Bell, Odette Yustman and Kristin Chenoweth. With the exception of Yustman (who's only been in a couple of theatrically released films), nearly every lead actress is a established name in some way.

[NSpan]

Expecting Betty White to translate into box-office revenue is like assuming the Pedo-Bear needs his own film. She's a freaking meme at this point.

[transformers2]

The big thing with this summer is that I think a lot of the "disapointments" were overhyped by certain people. Clearly there has some serious letdown like Jonah Hex and Sex and The City 2 but I don't movies like Get Him To The Greek,The A-Team were disapointing at all. The A-Team did pretty well for a reboot and Get Him To The Greek did fine as well. I don't know these grosses became letdowns I think a lot of people are expecting every summer film to gross like 150 mill+.


Anyways August and September are both crapshoots. I think in August The Other Guys will hit 100 mill, The Expendables and Eat Pray Love will come close and maybe one other film will finish with around 50 mill besides that I think everything else won't do too well. September is even worse Legend Of The Guradians and Resident Evil will be hits and I am little bit higher on Easy-A then most but besides that everything else will tank.