The 50 Biggest Movies of 2010

[undeadmonkey]

dont just get on geez, boosh does it too.

I do think though that most realize its just for fun and they usually dont mean anything by it... i think

[Geezer]

Hey, if I hadn't said it, W would have. My point wasn't to get on Boush, it was to show how ridiculous it is to say a movie will fail because the company behind it has a bad track record. If the movie fails, its because people don't want to see it. Bottom line. 95% of the general public doesn't care what company made, released, distributed or produced the movie, a concept Boosh still hasn't seemed to figure out. No one saw The Seeker because it looked like shit and had horrible promotion. I doubt that will happen with what is supposed to be one of the biggest movies of next year.

I would have said exactly the same thing if anyone else said what he said. It just seems like he is the only one who doesn't get it and thinks through his own crazy mixed up world, not reality.

[Buscemi]

One of the most important aspects of predicting a film's box office is who is distributing the film. This way, you can look back and see how they have promoted a film or handled the film's production. Also, Fox's ways of handling things have gotten some criticism lately. A good case has been with their fantasy adaptations.

Also, Prince Caspian made less than half of the first movie's gross. And without a powerhouse like Disney handling the third movie (but a company that is often cut-rate with its productions), you could expect to see a number under $100 million.

[Geezer]

Now see, had you gone with the argument of Prince Caspian making less than half of the first movie's gross, therefore it would be likely that the third film also regresses and therefore sorely disappoints, you would be making sense. Again 95% of people aren't even going to realize that the franchise switched from Disney to Fox.

You say that distributors are a big determining factor of Box Office success. So how is it that I'm so successful at our little game when I couldn't tell you who is distributing any film in any weekend of any year?

[Buscemi]

Because you always go for the Transformers factor: the more shit that explodes, the more money that it will make.

[W]

I probably would have said nothing on this one.

Sometimes you can tell what's going to happen by the distributor, but it is a little more than a guess most of the time if that's the main information you're using. Like most of the time Summit releases films that don't do as well as you'd expect from another company, but that's mainly due to them being badly promoted or just bad. Another time is in the case of limited releases, you can say "This company did this with this film, so they'll probably do this with that film."

I don't think you can compare this film to the others you mentioned because its a well known comodity ($141 M was considered a flop) unlike "The Seeker" (I didn't know this was a film until it was on DVD for 6 months) which was a startup from an obviously weaker source.

More people will know that it switched from Disney to Fox than normal because it's Disney. Fox will have to spend a lot more promoting because, well, it's Disney. I think it does less because Disney is one of those companies that know what they're doing and if they drop a franchise, you probably shouldn't touch it.

[NSpan]

Distribution and marketing is huge (obviously), but for a franchise as big and popular as the Narnia series--this movie won't be flying under anybody's radar

[Geezer]

Because you always go for the Transformers factor: the more shit that explodes, the more money that it will make.

Hey, people Know what they like, and they likey explosions.

[delfinasu]

I could have save it for 2010 Super-Contest edition// Blockbusters of 2010: viewtopic.php?f=15&t=83&start=0 , but let's roll the dices...

I think that we'll have these movies in 2010 Top 10 (or at least Top 20 ):
Iron Man 2
Toy Story 3
Shrek Forever After
Harry Potter and the Deathly...
The Twilight Saga: Eclipse
Alice in Wonderland
Inception
The A-Team
Little Fockers
Sex and the City 2

Maybe not in this order, maybe not all those movies, take it or leave it of course, we'll have underdogs maybe not like this year The Hangover, but I'm sure of some little surprises...

What about the List on the first post?

My opinions:

Overestimated (Too High on the List):
Robin Hood
Shutter Island
The Expendables
Green Zone
Diary of a Wimpy Kid
Season of the Witch
Hot Tub Time Machine
Beastly

Underestimated (Too Low on the List):
Shrek Forever After
Prince of Persia: The Sands of Time
The Green Hornet
Clash of The Titans
Red Dawn

Not in the list (possible underdogs):
Little Fockers
The Other Guys
A Nightmare on Elm Street
Valentine's Day
The Last Airbender (maybe M. N.'s last chance)
Despicable Me
The Zookeeper (Pall Blart numbers ??)
A Couple of Cops aka A Couple of Dicks
How to Train Your Dragon
Killers
Kung Fu Kid aka Karate Kid
Due Date
Knight & Day aka Wichita
Dinner for Schmucks

[Buscemi]

I expect Kung Fu Kid to flop. They are turning a Karate Kid remake into a potential Sidekicks ripoff.

Also if A Couples Of Dicks is not rated R, then that will disappoint at the box office.

And Hot Tub Time Machine will be this year's Hangover. Hangover-esque plot + time travel = $$$$

[undeadmonkey]

i dont think HTTM looks anything like The Hangover (other than the getting drunk part). one of the reasons that hangover was so well received by the public is because people could relate, getting drunk and doing crazy stuff and having a huge hangover. Yes im sure no one is going to steal a tiger from a pro boxer or fight a naked asian mafia dude or kidnap a hookers baby but the plot was at least plausible. Hot tub time machine looks stupid and no matter how drunk you get your not going to travel back in time.

[delfinasu]

I agree with UDM. It will surprise me if HTTM will surpass $ 75M...

[transformers2]

I also dont see HTTM breaking out. Personally i think it looks very funny but i dont think the premise will bring in a huge audience. I can see 50-60 mill on that one.

[Buscemi]

Unlocked for NSpan.

[undeadmonkey]

hehe at Robin Hood at number 3 and Kick Ass at number 12