Holiday Sports Movie Box Office Showdown

[Screen203]

I'm not necessarily sure this deserves its own thread, but I'm not sure where else I would put it.

This holiday season, there are three sports movies releasing very closely to each other. First is A24's The Iron Claw, releasing on December 22nd. On the 25th, Neon will be releasing Michael Mann's comeback after 8 years away, Ferrari, and MGM/Amazon will be releasing George Clooney's The Boys In The Boat.

IMO, The Boys In The Boat seems like it will be the highest-grosser of the three, in spite of the very poor recent track record of Clooney as a director critically and commercially. It is based on a best-selling book, and is being sold as an inspirational choice for families and older adults over the holiday season. The model for this by MGM/Amazon is most likely Unbroken (another adaptation of a popular novel based on actual events centered around sports and World War 2 from an A-list actor - in that case, Angelina Jolie) , but there is next-to-no chance this will gross the 110+ m that did about a decade ago. I think a more realistic comparison may be American Underdog from 2021, which grossed about 25 m.

The Iron Claw seems unlikely to gross much. While the trailer generated some solid buzz when it came out, the very heavy subject matter seems likely to harm it, and I'm not sure how wide-scale of a release it will be. Even if it becomes a major awards contender, I don't expect more than 15 m or so for it.

The wild card is Ferrari. Michael Mann, even before his hiatus, hasn't had a undisputed success at the box office in a while. Another issue is that Neon hasn't ever distributed a film on this level of budget, and I'm not sure how much money they will put into the marketing campaign. Reviews (though generally positive) are relatively mixed, as well. That being said, the trailers are very well-made, and focus heavily on the spectacle. I could see it grossing anywhere from under 10 m to around 40 m.

What does everyone else think?

[Buscemi2]

They're all too niche. The Boys in the Boat has been on the shelf for two years and only started its ad campaign a few days ago. The Iron Claw is too downbeat for a mainstream audience while Ferrari stars box office poison Adam Driver.

Any of them will be lucky to break $20 million.

[Screen203]

It seems like The Boys In The Boat did win out, though it's doing better (at least so far) than I expected. Even with a heavy preview share, it opened to nearly 6 m over Christmas Day, and it outgross American Underdog at the very least; I think it can do 35-40 m, and potentially more, unless it is very front-loaded like American Underdog was.

The Iron Claw also seems to be out-performing expectations. While it's not a blockbuster hit by any means, it seems like it should reach 20 m at the very least. If it can get past 25 m, it would be within the "average A24 breakout level", with 40 m+ being for a very select few.

Ferrari is definitely doing pretty poorly, however. It opened to about 3 m over Christmas Day, and WOM seems very mixed. While it's almost certain to be Neon's first 10 m+ grosser since Parasite, it will still lose plenty of money for STX.

[Buscemi2]

The Boys in the Boat had the advantage of being based on a popular book. Nothing but praise for the source material from what I've read.

As for Ferrari, maybe the industry will stop trying to sell Adam Driver as a leading man. He might be the most boring actor working today. It also pretty much stops the attempted Shailene Woodley comeback that was supposed to happen this year, with all of three of her movies (To Catch a Killer, Dumb Money, and this) flopping.

[transformers2]

I was similarly shocked by The Boys in the Boat's numbers from yesterday. Guess Amazon was right to open it this time of year after all.